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  • #8,981
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:12am Feb 19, 2009 5:12am
Quoting RedCabbage
You can spend all day genning yourself up on news which can disagree with what you see in the charts.

I don't read Bloomberg anymore I just use Ransquawk.com, it's all you need to know in real time.
So what are you saying? You don't read the news at all? Just listen to the squaw box for the breaking announcements and any unexpected stuff that comes up?

If that's the case I'd be pleased to hear it. I hate the vagaries or the funnystuff.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,982
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:17am Feb 19, 2009 5:17am
Quoting seattlerust
Hi Paul,

RC is correct, of course; you can indeed get bogged down in the details of the fundies and it can paralyze you. Some traders work exclusively based on the technicals; others want to know to some degree, what is causing the market to do what it does. Ultimately, it is because the "big dogs" have the big bucks and that is how they want to place their bets. And the price represents that.

Myself, I like to have a little bit of understanding of what is going on. Just my preference.

I want to know what news events are coming and when...
Thanks for the link SR. And yes I like to read John Hardy's commentary too even though it's often a bit on the late side (yesterday it was early afternoon I think).

I'll go take a look at Houdini's site.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,983
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:17am Feb 19, 2009 5:17am
Quoting ishacm
A good set up is coming in EUR/USD for short:
Shorted @ 1.2720... However price must break the 1.2700 level

Already changed the SL to B/E... anyone on this trade
STRENGHT IS LIFE ,WEAKNESS IS DEATH - SWAMI VIVEKANANDA
  • #8,984
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:29am Feb 19, 2009 5:29am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Thanks for the link SR. And yes I like to read John Hardy's commentary too even though it's often a bit on the late side (yesterday it was early afternoon I think).

I'll go take a look at Houdini's site.
Chris Lori's most recent Blog posted yesterday is absolutely priceless IMWO. In five minutes reading, I can understand clearly all that is really happening right now and what it may mean in the Forex Markets.

SR
  • #8,985
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:51am Feb 19, 2009 5:51am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Hi All

Well I've been going over the BRV files again and have taken to heart his recommendations to be aware of what is going on the world around us before embarking upon the trading challenge each day....
The dollar is correcting downward after a big move up earlier this week, in part as a purely technical response to an overbought condition and in part
because German Finance Minister Steinbrueck announced yesterday that Germany may be stepping up to the plate to offer “emergency” financial aid and leadership to the rest of the eurozone countries. What form this might take is unclear but Chancellor Merkel is holding a press conference later
today (4:15 GMT) with EC Pres Barroso, so we might get details.

So big news in Europe with no real meat/substance is driving it. Looks like its time to sit back and wait til this new story breaks.
  • #8,986
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:56am Feb 19, 2009 5:56am
Quoting seattlerust
Chris Lori's most recent Blog posted yesterday is absolutely priceless IMWO. In five minutes reading, I can understand clearly all that is really happening right now and what it may mean in the Forex Markets.

SR
Yes, very enlightening.

The blogs don't seem to be put up with any regularity. Do the members get an email letting them know there's an update. Or is it just a case of dropping back there every couple of days?
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,987
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:05am Feb 19, 2009 6:05am
Quoting nyjetfan
The dollar is correcting downward after a big move up earlier this week, in part as a purely technical response to an overbought condition and in part
because German Finance Minister Steinbrueck announced yesterday that Germany may be stepping up to the plate to offer “emergency” financial aid and leadership to the rest of the eurozone countries. What form this might take is unclear but Chancellor Merkel is holding a press conference later
today (4:15 GMT) with EC Pres Barroso, so we might get details.

So big news in Europe with no real meat/substance...
Thanks for that. I failed to notice that it was happening. Probably too busy trying to work out why gold wasn't doing what it ought to!

I guess this is one of those times when you need RC's squawk thing. I signed up to it but can't get a peep - or a squawk - out of it. I'll have to ask RC if he knows where I'm going wrong.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,988
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:19am Feb 19, 2009 6:19am
RC - can you give me any ideas as to why I can't get this squawk site to work? I've signed in and gone to the squawk page where it says 'Welcome to the 'retail squawkbox' which is a 30 second delayed version...................' but there doesn't seem to be anywhere to get a feed or anything.

Ah, I just had a thought. Does it only spring into life occasionally?

What worries me about it is that it is a 'real time' service and the clock on the web page is still showing DST. Not very up to date.

Anyway, any help or suggestions would be gratefully received.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,989
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:22am Feb 19, 2009 6:22am
Quoting PaulEamonn
So who is in charge of the lunatic asylum - the funnymentalist or the technocrats?

I look forward to comments and guidance..............puhlease!!

IMVHO, in order to effectively implement this strategy technicals are WAY more essential. I mean, this strategy is all about finding the RIGHT levels ie the levels which carry the most probability to turn the market, and that is hard ENUFF to do.

Once the market has turned you can find plenty of "funnymental" reasons for that occurence, but fact is that the real money comes when you are technically proficient enuff to spot in advance and trade the very levels which turn the market.

While I m not saying to discard funnymental analysis completely, you better aim at proficiency in spotting SR levels first and foremost.

Nonetheless there is one kind of funnymental stuff that is quite useful to focus on: the intermarket correlations.
If you knew this stuff you'd know that the euro goes up when the Dow goes up. Why? Because of the "Risk vs Safety" factor: when the Dow is up, this means that risk appetite in the markets is improving, and that in turns makes the Euro go up.

Mind that intermarket correlatons don't hold all the time, and like everything else in the markets are subject to change. But you can keep up with the most up-to-date correlations by reading news and analysis on the Internet.

Hope this helps

LJ






1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #8,990
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:23am Feb 19, 2009 6:23am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Yes, very enlightening.

The blogs don't seem to be put up with any regularity. Do the members get an email letting them know there's an update. Or is it just a case of dropping back there every couple of days?
Yes, exactly. He has a number of sources of info but this blog is only updated occasionally; usually about once a week.

SR
  • #8,991
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:35am Feb 19, 2009 6:35am
Quoting LeveragedJoe
[left]IMVHO, in order to effectively implement this strategy technicals are WAY more essential. I mean, this strategy is all about finding the RIGHT levels ie the levels which carry the most probability to turn the market, and that is hard ENUFF to do.

Once the market has turned you can find plenty of "funnymental" reasons for that occurence, but fact is that the real money comes when you are technically proficient enuff to spot in advance and trade...
Right on LJ, funnymentals and news changes faster than you can keep up with these days. Big key is to identify your levels and take the trades. While this news of Germany stepping up brings back risk aversion (ie weakens USD) I can see some additional bad news not too far off to start sending people back to the "safe haven" USD. Unless the EURO breaks 1.3, I'm looking for the USD rally to continue.
  • #8,992
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:52am Feb 19, 2009 6:52am
Quoting LeveragedJoe

IMVHO, in order to effectively implement this strategy technicals are WAY more essential. I mean, this strategy is all about finding the RIGHT levels ie the levels which carry the most probability to turn the market, and that is hard ENUFF to do.

Once the market has turned you can find plenty of "funnymental" reasons for that occurence, but fact is that the real money comes when you are technically proficient enuff to spot in advance and trade...


Quoting LeveragedJoe
Nonetheless there is one kind of funnymental stuff that is quite useful to focus on: the intermarket correlations.
If you knew this stuff you'd know that the euro goes up when the Dow goes up. Why? Because of the "Risk vs Safety" factor: when the Dow is up, this means that risk appetite in the markets is improving, and that in turns makes the Euro go up.
Yeah, you see this is where I get confused - or I've got it very wrong - but to me that seems illogical. If the Dow is going up it means people are buying the shares. If people are buying the shares (and they surely can't all be US citizens) they need to buy dollars to do it. They buy dollars (with their Euros?) and the dollar should go up and the Euro goes down.

RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,993
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:54am Feb 19, 2009 6:54am
Quoting seattlerust
Yes, exactly. He has a number of sources of info but this blog is only updated occasionally; usually about once a week.

SR
Thanks for that. I'll put it on my 'to do' list and check it every day or two. If I see an update I'll let you know.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,994
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:09am Feb 19, 2009 7:09am
Quoting PaulEamonn




Yeah, you see this is where I get confused - or I've got it very wrong - but to me that seems illogical. If the Dow is going up it means people are buying the shares. If people are buying the shares (and they surely can't all be US citizens) they need to buy dollars to do it. They buy dollars (with their Euros?) and the dollar should go up and the Euro goes down.

Paul - You're only looking at one side of things. If the market is going up, that implies the US economy is going well, so there's strong possibility of money LEAVING the US, as emerging countries/economies offer much greater growth perspective. So when the US stocks do well, the dollar usually doesn't as most people are willing to take on the higher risk (with much greater rewards) outside the US.

Of course there's a million theories on this, but I can just say that I've typically noticed the US Stock markets and the USD are inversely correlated (most of the time).
  • #8,995
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:14am Feb 19, 2009 7:14am
Quoting nyjetfan
Paul - You're only looking at one side of things....
- reckon it's best if I stick to watching the waves.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,996
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:19am Feb 19, 2009 7:19am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Thanks for that. I'll put it on my 'to do' list and check it every day or two. If I see an update I'll let you know.
Paul,

If you join the site (free) you will receive an email whenever there is a new item. btw, some of the archives (webinars, samples of his other activities, etc) are very enlightening. I especially like his little video, "Where does money come from" I think the title is. THAT is scary.

SR
  • #8,997
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:24am Feb 19, 2009 7:24am
Quoting PaulEamonn
- reckon it's best if I stick to watching the waves.
I hope you live near the ocean, as those are the only waves I want to see..

I can say that the more I try to dive into the fundamentals, the more confusing things become. I personally don't think fundamentals are that important in a short term trading strategy (such as S&R), as I don't really care what tomorrow's news will be since I will be flat (no position) as we approach it for a particular currency. I just care about where the S&R values are and need to make sure there's no big news release that will be adding to any movements.


And don't look now, the USD is rallying back hard. Wish I caught the top on that one. Looks like the EU at 1.2720 might payoff if your stop didn't trigger at the top.
  • #8,998
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:27am Feb 19, 2009 7:27am
Quoting seattlerust
Paul,

If you join the site (free) you will receive an email whenever there is a new item. btw, some of the archives (webinars, samples of his other activities, etc) are very enlightening. I especially like his little video, "Where does money come from" I think the title is. THAT is scary.

SR
Thanks for that. I'll go take a look.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,999
  • Edited 7:55am Feb 19, 2009 7:42am | Edited 7:55am
Quoting nyjetfan

Of course there's a million theories on this, but I can just say that I've typically noticed the US Stock markets and the USD are inversely correlated (most of the time).
Yeah, Paul, intermarket correlations are no exact science, instead they are just the visible outcome of big money being moved from one side of the market into the other.

So in this particular environment we see that the Euro is bought when US Stocks are bought but theoretically there is nothing which dictates this outcome. I mean, no theory forbids that in some kind of market environment the Euro will be sold when US Stocks are bought, but fact is that now the opposite behavior is in play.

And if you still don't understand why, think that the US Stock Market leads the international Stock Markets so that when the Dow is up the European Stocks are in the green as well. Now the Euro going up should be making much more sense.

LJ
1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #9,000
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:42am Feb 19, 2009 7:42am
Quoting nyjetfan
I hope you live near the ocean, as those are the only waves I want to see..
While I realise that nowhere is that far away when you live in the UK, I couldn't live further from the sea if I tried.
Quoting nyjetfan
I can say that the more I try to dive into the fundamentals, the more confusing things become. I personally don't think fundamentals are that important in a short term trading strategy (such as S&R), as I don't really care what tomorrow's news will be since I will be flat (no position) as we approach it for a particular currency. I just care about where the S&R values are and need to make sure there's no big news release that will be adding to any movements.
I guess that is the way to view it. BRV said that knowing the way the funnies were pointing gave him confidence in his trades. After this conversation I have the complete opposite!!
Quoting nyjetfan
And don't look now, the USD is rallying back hard. Wish I caught the top on that one. Looks like the EU at 1.2720 might payoff if your stop didn't trigger at the top.
I was 2 pips away from a late entry at the bottom of the rally in CAD. Never mind, they're like buses, there'll be another one along soon.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
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