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  • #8,961
  • Feb 18, 2009 12:43pm Feb 18, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting sam0182
USD/CHF bounce off the daily spike/previous support (@ about 1.1829) from Nov 28th was nearly to the pip...impressive.
Yeah, I got that one -- it really is a satisfying feeling to see price react exactly where you expect it to.

After meandering down for awhile, it took a big drop -- related to Bernanke?
  • #8,962
  • Feb 18, 2009 2:00pm Feb 18, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Not planning much for this pair until we hit 11830 which could give a nice sell.

Daily TL providing a bit of s/r here and there.
I'm glad some people caught this one because I didn't.
  • #8,963
  • Feb 18, 2009 2:01pm Feb 18, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting PaulEamonn
Looks like we shall never know! I think Khalys has left the building.

Shame it didn't got down there for him. It would have given him a nice bit of profit.
12514 was the big one today.
  • #8,964
  • Feb 18, 2009 3:24pm Feb 18, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting RedCabbage
I'm glad some people caught this one because I didn't.
Haha, man...I remember you posting some 1.18 figure the other day in response to my USD/CHF chart request...couldn't remember it and didn't think to go back and find it. Excellent call!

But really, you didn't short it? The ROFL is either sarcasm or for real, you made the call to the pip and didn't take it?
  • #8,965
  • Feb 18, 2009 5:50pm Feb 18, 2009 5:50pm
Morning

Not the best of days yesterday, Usd/cad shot up and ran back down taking out my stop at break even and the Usd/chf went up alright but didn't come down enough to trigger my entry @ the 600 level. thre is some nice support on this now @ 1.1720

On to the next
  • #8,966
  • Feb 18, 2009 10:52pm Feb 18, 2009 10:52pm
Another failure.

Guys, I mostly find the wrong SR levels. I think, I need more screen time to find the better S/R levels.

In this situation, I think this was an abused area, so the price went back up.

Looking forward (as someone said, winners never quits and quitters never wins).

thx

Quoting ishacm
I am in this trade (CAD/JPY) short

Your views please?
  • #8,967
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:05pm Feb 18, 2009 11:05pm
Don't worry Ishacm, you'll get there.

Just step back for now, take a few breaths and review what you did wrong, then identify how the trade could be improved next time
  • #8,968
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:19pm Feb 18, 2009 11:19pm
YO RC, mind giving some analysis on GU?
kinda miss ur posts and some others as well.... its been unusually quiet nowadays...

jus wondering if anyone here is kind enuf to be my mentor for abit...

"Teach a person how to fish and he can feed himself for life"
period.
  • #8,969
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:42pm Feb 18, 2009 11:42pm
I'm not RC but figured I might as well voice my thoughts -- all that really appeals to me on GBP/USD right now is a short around the 1.4340 area. Not only is there the gap, but there's plenty of reaction from that level in both directions on the charts (1hr through daily), going a long way back as well. Line has not been tested on this side since gapping past it last Friday.

Potential stumbling block would be the several bounces off the 4315-ish line a bit below; possibly too close and a break of that resistance will mean momentum to break through the 4340 area as well?
  • #8,970
  • Edited 2:34am Feb 19, 2009 1:42am | Edited 2:34am
The only true No Brainer set up on GBPUSD was yesterdays long from 14100 (range was down to 14040).

There are potential sells coming up but how confident are you in each position? Don't stand in front of an express train!

I will look much later on for sells

I'll be looking at other pairs this morning.
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  • #8,971
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:05am Feb 19, 2009 2:05am
Hi there,

first of all thanks a lot for the information provided here, some great stuff can be found in this thread!

So now I have some questions that keep going on in my mind currently about how to handle things in real trading for me.

I live in germany and I've still got a job (that I like a lot) and am leading an active life so I can't sit in front of the screen all day long. I plan to check charts for possible entries at the time the US-Stock market closes. I don't want to get into a trade while sleeping generally so I'll wait until I wake up the next morning to place possible orders (with stop-loss and profit targets in) when the london-session starts. Of course I don't look for trades on a 5min-chart, I'm looking mostly on 1-hour charts to find the most potential trades there that could run for a few hours.

So far so good, but now I've got to leave for 10 hours. I got a mobile device that allows me to manage trades etc. though. But still I can't watch it every 5 minutes to see if I'm in a trade and might want to move my stop to breakeven etc.

Now my question is if anyone else is in the same situation and how you manage your business. The following questions keep coming for me:

- Trade just 1 pair or multiple? And if you trade multiple how do you make sure not to end with a hedge-trade or to much risk? Maybe you just select 1 possible trade and place 1 order and leave all other trades?

- Is it necessary to sit in front of the screen once you get into a position? If not how do you manage it? With a trailing-stop?

Would be great if I would get some input about how you manage your trading with this method when you're not in front of the screen. Maybe I can get a few ideas this way.

Thank you and good trades!

Marco
  • #8,972
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:37am Feb 19, 2009 2:37am
Hi,

First of all I dont' trade hourly charts, I know many here that can and they do well out of it.

If you are really short on time then trading daily charts is the way to go, less chart time and orders can be placed and not worried about eveytime a new hour comes round.

Good luck
  • #8,973
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:30am Feb 19, 2009 3:30am
Anyone get in the GU short at 1.44? Had a nice run leading up to it, but 1.44 is a weekly SR value based on my (mis)calculation. My stop is already at BE, so I'm playing with "house money".
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  • #8,974
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:11am Feb 19, 2009 5:11am
Quoting nyjetfan
Anyone get in the GU short at 1.44? Had a nice run leading up to it, but 1.44 is a weekly SR value based on my (mis)calculation. My stop is already at BE, so I'm playing with "house money".
Ended up getting out with 47 pips. Looks like its going to retest the 1.44 area again soon.
  • #8,975
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:17am Feb 19, 2009 5:17am
A good set up is coming in EUR/USD for short:
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  • #8,976
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:31am Feb 19, 2009 5:31am
Quoting ishacm
A good set up is coming in EUR/USD for short:
I have that area marked as well, but not sure we're gonna make it. Already seeing the last 3 hourly candles hit resistance in the 1.2675-2685 range, so this rally might be running out of gas a little earlier than the 1.27 area.

Also, the recent rally started down near 1.25 and with an ATR of 200 pips, definitely expect to see this fizzle out sooner as opposed to later.
  • #8,977
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:46am Feb 19, 2009 5:46am
Yeah, it is highly unlikely that it will touch 1.27 level. But, at the same time, we should not chase any trade.


Quoting nyjetfan
I have that area marked as well, but not sure we're gonna make it. Already seeing the last 3 hourly candles hit resistance in the 1.2675-2685 range, so this rally might be running out of gas a little earlier than the 1.27 area.

Also, the recent rally started down near 1.25 and with an ATR of 200 pips, definitely expect to see this fizzle out sooner as opposed to later.
  • #8,978
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:04am Feb 19, 2009 6:04am
Hi All

Well I've been going over the BRV files again and have taken to heart his recommendations to be aware of what is going on the world around us before embarking upon the trading challenge each day. And before I make my comments on the current state of play I'd be interested to discover if any other members spend their first hour boning up on the market's funnymentals?

From what I've read so far today it would seem that the US$ is expected to see some strength for a little while for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Obama housing plan seems to have been met with some degree of pleasure. Secondly, the European currencies (especially the Euro) are expected to be facing a hard time from the potential eastern bloc defaults and, if there is nothing else, the US$ is considered to be (I love this term) the 'leper with the most fingers' thus a safe haven for the fleeing investors - funniest thing I've ever read in the financial press! Apologies to any lepers looking in!

These should result in the Euro and cable heading down - so why is it that both the Euro and the GBP can buy more dollars now than they could yesterday? This is the thing with funnymentals; they never seem to gel like they should.

The Dow has gone up 100 points since yesterday's close. To buy US shares you need US dollars, you buy US dollars and it strengthens. Oh no, not today it don't.

And to add to that, gold and the US dollar index are both at a humongous monthly resistance level that surely should cause at least a small reversal. If that's the case, why is everybody calling for US$ to go up?

So who is in charge of the lunatic asylum - the funnymentalist or the technocrats?

I look forward to comments and guidance..............puhlease!!
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #8,979
  • Feb 19, 2009 6:47am Feb 19, 2009 6:47am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Hi All

Well I've been going over the BRV files again and have taken to heart his recommendations to be aware of what is going on the world around us before embarking upon the trading challenge each day. And before I make my comments on the current state of play I'd be interested to discover if any other members spend their first hour boning up on the market's funnymentals?

From what I've read so far today it would seem that the US$ is expected to see some strength for a little while for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Obama housing plan seems...
You can spend all day genning yourself up on news which can disagree with what you see in the charts.

I don't read Bloomberg anymore I just use Ransquawk.com, it's all you need to know in real time.
  • #8,980
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:11am Feb 19, 2009 7:11am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Hi All

Well I've been going over the BRV files again and have taken to heart his recommendations to be aware of what is going on the world around us before embarking upon the trading challenge each day. And before I make my comments on the current state of play I'd be interested to discover if any other members spend their first hour boning up on the market's funnymentals?

I look forward to comments and guidance..............puhlease!!
Hi Paul,

RC is correct, of course; you can indeed get bogged down in the details of the fundies and it can paralyze you. Some traders work exclusively based on the technicals; others want to know to some degree, what is causing the market to do what it does. Ultimately, it is because the "big dogs" have the big bucks and that is how they want to place their bets. And the price represents that.

Myself, I like to have a little bit of understanding of what is going on. Just my preference.

I want to know what news events are coming and when and I usually stand aside for awhile until the dust settles. The price will almost always revert to the basic trend after the dust settles but the volatility can bust the stops in the meantime. So I dont enter any trades at the appropriate time.

For the general feel of what is going on, I can usually find a bank feed (Saxo Bank, for instance) that will allow me to see their daily analysis for free. I read that every morning. Takes only about ten minutes. They don't "recommend" and I am only interested in their "read" of the events going on. I also follow the more detailed analys is of a gentleman who has a presence on FF under the name of Houdini and who has a web site that one can join for free http://www.chrislori.com/ . I have known and followed this man's analysis for years and I know of no-one better in having the pulse of the international financials. He is one hell of a trader too.

So those are my thoughts. No guidance. Everyone should stay true to themselves; stick with price, support and resistance ;and stay cool.

SR
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