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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #18,821
  • Feb 18, 2009 11:09pm Feb 18, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting time1300
P.S. I could sure use a nice fresh water fish right now my friend.
time1300 : I am planning to sell fresh water fish with its scientific name called "tor tambroides" because I can get the original seed from the river nearby my village. This fish has very high demand in my country. In my state (sarawak), it costs USD45/kg (more or less). Interested?

Popisdead : I love "semah" and "empurau" because it is beautiful and delicious spesies. They called it "kelah" in Peninsular Malaysia or "pelian" in Sabah. I already started my FISH BUSINESS part time now...

Okay...back to FOREX business...


In my previous posts I have emphasized how EU "dealing" with the fib 100.0% level. I do not simply create this fib # for fun. As per h4 chart below, just look how my fib 100.0% level penetrate this pair. Look at the price action according to this level...!!! What do you see?

Besides me, does anyone else pay a serious attention to this level so far?

H1 chart is just for a clearer viewing for this pair. Any comments and suggestions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,822
  • Feb 19, 2009 1:02am Feb 19, 2009 1:02am
Quoting orangeRANGE
In my previous posts I have emphasized how EU "dealing" with the fib 100.0% level. I do not simply create this fib # for fun. As per h4 chart below, just look how my fib 100.0% level penetrate this pair. Look at the price action according to this level...!!! What do you see?

Besides me, does anyone else pay a serious attention to this level so far?

H1 chart is just for a clearer viewing for this pair. Any comments and suggestions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT...
Hi All.
On my chart in the same place where at you Fib 100% the support line is drawn. Already long time the price cannot is closed below this line. There can be a price in a corridor? There can be a price wishes to go upwards?

Sorry my English.
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I am learning English, but still cannot speak well.
  • #18,823
  • Feb 19, 2009 1:54am Feb 19, 2009 1:54am
Quoting Keus
Hi All.
On my chart in the same place where at you Fib 100% the support line is drawn. Already long time the price cannot is closed below this line. There can be a price in a corridor? There can be a price wishes to go upwards?

Sorry my English.
Keus,

Your support trend line is a short term one a.k.a. the channel. Yes, the price "MAYBE" wishing to go up to 21 or more, and that is the market rhythm.

However, the downtrend is still in control. Becarefull if you want to make CT here. The fib 100.0% seems "holding" the price at this momment but you must look at the candlestick behaviours/patterns accroding to the MAs also.

Simply put, wait until a clear trend if you feel doubtful to make any entry decision. That's what I do...

Goodluck...
  • #18,824
  • Feb 19, 2009 4:36am Feb 19, 2009 4:36am
I closed all my positions on the Eur/Usd after the MACD made a higher low as well as price been stalling at the area some of you have pointed out and I had closed 2/3 of my position before so I decided to close my last one as I saw opportunity on the Usd/Jpy. Total gain at 90 pips.

Usd/jpy

After price caught up with the 8ema, I switched to the lower time frame to look for entry opportunities and I entered on a TC on the 1H. I am going to try to ride this trend as I think there is a little more steam.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,825
  • Feb 19, 2009 5:11am Feb 19, 2009 5:11am
palmer ,thanks for your pictures!!!

may i ask you a question???

on the 1 hour picture,i see the verticle red lines where the macd turned to red,a TC is coming .But if i sell the eurusd ,how can i make positive pips?????

or i would not trade every signals ????

Attached Image
  • #18,826
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:57am Feb 19, 2009 7:57am
The USD/JPY did move away away from the 8ema as anticipated.................

I have closed 2/3 of my position and the last lot @ break even with 45 pip trailing stop.......

I will watch the 94.40/50 closely which is also the Daily R1 point.

Edit:
Closed final lot as price hit the Daily R1 point @ 94.40

Total 150 pips
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,827
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:07am Feb 19, 2009 8:07am
Hello all...

We found out a higher low in h4 macd window which is also already went above Zero line. Also, I pointed out some price action in relation with macd in h1.

Looks like the fib 100.0% which I mentioned in my previous posts supports this pair very well. Market rhythming so strong now...and who knows this will be the turning point of EU? Or will it continue its path to down side next week? I am not sure about this.

Based on this thread's method, EU it is still in a downtrend mode though. And I guess Friday (tomorrow) will be a boring one if the price keeping its pace like this.

Nevertheless, if EU going downside in next week (or next 2 weeks) I will see the next level this pair will go would be fib 123.6% based on my d1 chart.

Just my prediction....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,828
  • Feb 19, 2009 9:36am Feb 19, 2009 9:36am
Long again on the Yen. 50% off table for +45pips. Other 50% rest running with a -10 pips SL.

Looks like it has some nice rhythm going here. Riding the 8EMA and then gining good TC's on the 1H when the +DM ADX crosses over.

Cable short was stopped out overnight for a -100pip and Euro was stopped at BE. On reflection the cable short was a dafty trade, but I was only half what I normally put on. The 1H entry was OK, but a few candles later there was a Morning Star then it closed above the 8EMA. I could have saved 50pips. Bah!

Did anyone then go short on Cable from 89SMA? I can't really see any signals to get short apart from the fact it got back to the 89 (and then 200).
  • #18,829
  • Feb 19, 2009 7:35pm Feb 19, 2009 7:35pm
Good evening everyone,

Just wanted to drop in my thoughts here.

the eur/usd in my opinion as I see on my charts has retraced back to the major daily trend line that it broke a few days back and on the 4H it has bounced off of it with a Round top MACD and also a long tail with bearish engulfing candle.

A trade could have been entered just by looking at the candle formations and after the long tail inverted hammer, and the Round top could have bagged you some pips but this would be a little riskier trade but would not be against the rules as you are taking the MACD signal with candle confirmation and against a strong resistance line.

I myself was not home and would probably not have taken the trade as I prefer to take trades that are in a trend as was the trades on the Eur/usd and Usd/jpy the past few days where I banked a good amount of pips.

I think the USD/JPY is still managing to ride the 8ema and has since retaced back again from its rise this morning and we might get another leg up before the week is up. I am watching that as well.

So in my opinion we might see that daily trend line for the EUR/USD act as support and continue its direction down to the downside maybe this time all the way to the 1.2300 level, we'll have to wait and see...

Please share or add to my analysis if you like, that is how we all learn from each other. the more eyes the better.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,830
  • Feb 19, 2009 8:16pm Feb 19, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting time1300
Good evening everyone,

Just wanted to drop in my thoughts here....A trade could have been entered just by looking at the candle formations and after the long tail inverted hammer, and the Round top could have bagged you some pips but this would be a little riskier trade but would not be against the rules as you are taking the MACD signal with candle confirmation and against a strong resistance line...So in my opinion we might see that daily trend line for the EUR/USD act as support and continue its direction down to the downside maybe this time...
Hello time...and hello to all...

Time: It seems that we are in agreement this time. So here are my simple analyses...

Below is h4 within 20 days trading period. The X line is the upper channel and the Y line is the lower channel of this pair's trend right now. This is the channel for EU to get its rhythm downside so far.

After a strong rhythm yesterday (EU bounced off the fib 100.0%), looks like the price made a Round Top pattern which is confirmed by macd as well. As I pointed out in the chart, there are long tail inverted hammer plus with doji candlesticks there (in agreement with time1300's opinion).

However, be watchful for the fib 100.0% level again, before we think the price could continuing down side, level by level, from 1.2500 to 1.2400 etc etc...

It is still too early to say this, but I am still predicting the price would make to fib 123.6% retracement, somewhere around 1.2000 region.

Only time can tell...

Any opinion and/or comment is most welcome.

P/S-time1300, you did have a good trading with the USDjpy

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,831
  • Feb 19, 2009 9:46pm Feb 19, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hello time...and hello to all...Any opinion and/or comment is most welcome...
Hello again...this is just to add my previous post before the recent candle is closed.

Below is my h1 representing 5 days trading period. The chart shadowed in orange rectangular showing the price action in h1 as it is Round Top formation in h4.

Using h1, I found 3 OUTSIDE DOWN pattern within this RT area of h4 and its strength ia also confirmed with the Fast/Slow EMA crossing (orange circle shadow) in macd window.

Just one of my technique to get a clearer picture of this system...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,832
  • Feb 20, 2009 1:46am Feb 20, 2009 1:46am
Quoting time1300
Good evening everyone,

Just wanted to drop in my thoughts here.

the eur/usd in my opinion as I see on my charts has retraced back to the major daily trend line that it broke a few days back and on the 4H it has bounced off of it with a Round top MACD and also a long tail with bearish engulfing candle.

A trade could have been entered just by looking at the candle formations and after the long tail inverted hammer, and the Round top could have bagged you some pips but this would be a little riskier trade but would not be against the rules...
i think price pulled back to broken TL and now ready to make new lows
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  • #18,833
  • Feb 20, 2009 4:36am Feb 20, 2009 4:36am
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sell 0.1slot eurusd @20090220 00:19 @1.2677 sl 1.2777(-100) tp1.2530 (+147)
buy 0.1slot eurusd@20090220 11:27 @1.2605 +72pips
because the sl is big.so I only operate 0.1slot!!!
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  • #18,834
  • Feb 20, 2009 11:40am Feb 20, 2009 11:40am
hi
how often would you advise to keep deleting/adding trendlines?
thank you
  • #18,835
  • Feb 20, 2009 12:55pm Feb 20, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting bshadroo
i think price pulled back to broken TL and now ready to make new lows
no....
it didnt happend and my 150pips profit changed to 0
  • #18,836
  • Feb 20, 2009 4:58pm Feb 20, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting bshadroo
no....
it didnt happend and my 150pips profit changed to 0
B,
I have to admire someone whose got the guts to post a +150 to 0 pips trade. However, I believe the great Mr. P would have something to say about money management. I bet it stung and I bet you won't make the same mistake twice. Keep posting
Raymond
  • #18,837
  • Feb 20, 2009 6:32pm Feb 20, 2009 6:32pm
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  • #18,838
  • Feb 20, 2009 7:29pm Feb 20, 2009 7:29pm
I missed this move, but if I was honest would probably have handled it in the same way as it looks like you did Bshadroo. This money management side of things is way harder in my view than entry conditions. I think there is something to be said for leaving some room for price to breath if you think there is potential for price to move strongly in your favour. In this case, the daily came back to broken trendline and then moved away (down). So, a 1hr / 4hr early entry short could well have been played for a daily profit target and bigger win which unfortunately didn't happen in this case. But it does mean that stops probably need to be left bigger to handle daily price movements. And it does mean bigger paper profits can turn to nothing unfortunately.

So thats my 2 cents I guess, in support of Bshadroo's management. Would be interested in other peoples thoughts on this though as its an area I'm grappling with at the moment.

Quoting Morelands
B,
I have to admire someone whose got the guts to post a +150 to 0 pips trade. However, I believe the great Mr. P would have something to say about money management. I bet it stung and I bet you won't make the same mistake twice. Keep posting
Raymond
  • #18,839
  • Feb 21, 2009 1:10pm Feb 21, 2009 1:10pm
yess
when u start trading ,u loose money at first ,then u learn how to be breakeven ,and then u start earning money ,and then u say ok,how i let my profit run ? and its a very difficult question,more difficult than other things ...

i could save 50pips if i had trailed my stoploss but ....friday night , and .... 220pips in 20 minutes ...... )
  • #18,840
  • Feb 21, 2009 9:20pm Feb 21, 2009 9:20pm
make a mark,for next time to read.
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