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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,161
  • Feb 16, 2009 8:48am Feb 16, 2009 8:48am
Quoting mexicomike
Scotty, don't get discouraged with us lurkers. I follow you closely and you have helped me enormously. Before you started posting again I was doing pretty much the same kind of analysis as you, based on Skunny's method. Please keep up the good work.
Mike
Thanks Mike, feel free to throw in your analysis too. I'd like to see others exercising their fib strategies as well.
  • #4,162
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:17pm Feb 16, 2009 4:17pm
Hi fib fans,

Near the start of this thread Skunny talked about putting a fib on the high/low of a weekly candle and watching what happened. More often than not the price would hit the 138% target.

This can also be seen happening on a daily basis (see attached chart for a random example).

I have seen several comments suggesting this is not a feasible way to trade but I have done a lot of backtesting and it seems to be a pretty reasonable way to trade! Has anyone done any live trading this way? Would appreciate any comments.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily-fibs.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #4,163
  • Feb 16, 2009 5:00pm Feb 16, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi fib fans,

Near the start of this thread Skunny talked about putting a fib on the high/low of a weekly candle and watching what happened. More often than not the price would hit the 138% target.

This can also be seen happening on a daily basis (see attached chart for a random example).

I have seen several comments suggesting this is not a feasible way to trade but I have done a lot of backtesting and it seems to be a pretty reasonable way to trade! Has anyone done any live trading this way? Would appreciate any comments.
You are right in noticing that fibbing a candle on a high TF and then dropping down in TF's works. But it is not the best, or most efficient way to go. Remember also, one candle on the weekly is made up of many smaller swings on the daily, hourly ect. So you are in essence just fibbing lots of smaller moves. There is nothing special though about fibbing single candles. Also, if you set out to trade those weekely candles, you would need to be extremely careful in your position sizing, entry and stop placement. Also, the bigger your range is, the longer your trades will take (in most cases). If you really want to go the single candle route, I'd advise sticking to the daily at the largest.(Quick edit) If you want to learn fibbing of specific time frames or single candles, check out Bobokus' Fib thread. It is probably more up your alley in this regard.
Overall though, I beleive the main thing that Skunny wanted us to see was how price reacts to support and resistance. Some places of S/R are more significant than others. The whole idea behind trading fibs is making sure you have your fib on the correct S/R, or cycle. This is the where all the trouble and headaches come in with fibs. Whatever you choose to do, never ever get into a trade at the break of the 0/100 line. Always let them retrace. If you don't heed this advice you will crash and burn.
  • #4,164
  • Feb 16, 2009 5:13pm Feb 16, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting Scotty B
Overall though, I beleive the main thing that Skunny wanted us to see was how price reacts to support and resistance. Some places of S/R are more significant than others. The whole idea behind trading fibs is making sure you have your fib on the correct S/R, or cycle. This is the where all the trouble and headaches come in with fibs. Whatever you choose to do, never ever get into a trade at the break of the 0/100 line. Always let them retrace. If you don't heed this advice you will crash and burn.
Yes I recall another excercise where he mentioned taking note of levels of resistance (from the previous swing down) as price is going up and levels of support (from the previous swing up) as price goes down.

I'm not sure if I missed the next part of that lesson but I imagine it was about taking the retracement when price gets to these levels?
  • #4,165
  • Feb 16, 2009 5:46pm Feb 16, 2009 5:46pm
Quoting DanUK
Yes I recall another excercise where he mentioned taking note of levels of resistance (from the previous swing down) as price is going up and levels of support (from the previous swing up) as price goes down.

I'm not sure if I missed the next part of that lesson but I imagine it was about taking the retracement when price gets to these levels?
I'm not sure exactly which lesson you are referring to, but you are right in saying that previous levels of S/R play a major role in where price can go. Even if price cannot get back to touch those old places price bounced off of, they still hold strong significance on the chart, and they in fact dictate how far price can and will go. This is why in another place Skunny mentioned that only sometimes are your fibs drawn in the right place. The common way fibs are taught is incorrect. Yes they work every now and then, but they are incorrect. The way I presented is still technically incorrect, but offers a very high win rate- a profitable one at that. Think about what a fib is and why and how it works and you'll figure it out.
  • #4,166
  • Feb 17, 2009 4:19am Feb 17, 2009 4:19am
Scotty, do you mean to say that we must first have our S/R lines in place before we draw the fibs? AND then try to figure out how best to sync the fib levels with the S/R?
If this is the essence of what you said, then things have become much clearer all of a sudden. But not an AHA moment for me yet lol
Thanks
Quoting Scotty B
You are right in noticing that fibbing a candle on a high TF and then dropping down in TF's works. But it is not the best, or most efficient way to go. Remember also, one candle on the weekly is made up of many smaller swings on the daily, hourly ect. So you are in essence just fibbing lots of smaller moves. There is nothing special though about fibbing single candles. Also, if you set out to trade those weekely candles, you would need to be extremely careful in your position sizing, entry and stop placement. Also, the bigger your range is, the...
  • #4,167
  • Feb 17, 2009 8:13am Feb 17, 2009 8:13am
Quoting shiva
Scotty, do you mean to say that we must first have our S/R lines in place before we draw the fibs? AND then try to figure out how best to sync the fib levels with the S/R?
If this is the essence of what you said, then things have become much clearer all of a sudden. But not an AHA moment for me yet lol
Thanks
Hey Shiva,

No I don't mean to have your S/R lines in place before you fib. I just mean that all the old places prices bounced off of a long time ago have significance. I am not talking about the major places of support and resistance either, rather, I am speaking of all places that price bounces off of. Really what it boils down to is this: What price does in the past, directly affects where it can go in the future. I am going to attach a chart that shows a fib in what I think of as it's Genesis. I've posted these a couple times before and nobody ever pays any attention to it. This chart should unlock this for you. This has a lot to do with the charts I posted Saturday, explaining how fibs work. I hope this leads you to your aha.

Scotty B


In the chart below, is my fib drawn wrong? Why or why not? I said above that this is a fib in it's beginning, what will it look like next, next, next...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: blog33.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #4,168
  • Feb 17, 2009 12:45pm Feb 17, 2009 12:45pm
Thanks for the continuing discussion Scotty and others.

I've already learned some fib stuff I've struggled to grasp for years from you Scotty but am far from getting a lot of what you hint at or a "aha" moment for me.

The weekend posts are something I need to study more but might not have time until next weekend cuz I'm working two jobs but am really enjoying the ongoing fib education!!!
  • #4,169
  • Feb 17, 2009 1:05pm Feb 17, 2009 1:05pm
Hi Scotty,

Forgive my ignorance here, but im failing to see why the 0 line is, where it is. No swing low there?

Any chance you could explain why you have decided to draw the line in the sand at that point?

Thanks,
MM


Quoting Scotty B
Hey Shiva,

No I don't mean to have your S/R lines in place before you fib. I just mean that all the old places prices bounced off of a long time ago have significance. I am not talking about the major places of support and resistance either, rather, I am speaking of all places that price bounces off of. Really what it boils down to is this: What price does in the past, directly affects where it can go in the future. I am going to attach a chart that shows a fib in what I think of as it's Genesis. I've posted these a couple times before and nobody...
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #4,170
  • Feb 17, 2009 1:24pm Feb 17, 2009 1:24pm
I agree Ari. That confused me too.
  • #4,171
  • Feb 17, 2009 1:46pm Feb 17, 2009 1:46pm
My guess is that this level was previously a 38 extension that was achived from the small wave at the beginning of the down move. Looks like the 0 line was dragged down to this point upon being achieved, and will continue on like that.

???
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #4,172
  • Feb 17, 2009 2:37pm Feb 17, 2009 2:37pm
Unfortunately I don't have data feed of General Motors (I guess this is what GM stands for).

http://i65.servimg.com/u/f65/11/65/36/33/th/12310.jpg

.. but it looks like you either choose one of the S/R levels or one of the retracement levels of previous fib.

I wonder how you can trade it though
  • #4,173
  • Feb 17, 2009 2:55pm Feb 17, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting Ari Gold
My guess is that this level was previously a 38 extension that was achived from the small wave at the beginning of the down move. Looks like the 0 line was dragged down to this point upon being achieved, and will continue on like that.

???
Hi friend,

I appreciate your thoughts here. Remember in my post that I said I drew what a fib looks in it's genesis, or it's beginning state to put it more clearly. This would exclude the possibility that some previous criteria regarding fib expansion compelled me to then move the fib where I have it drawn. The fib drawn is truly in it's first phase; It has not grown yet to accommodate further price movement. The truth is, every fib always looks like this in it's beginning. They key to understand what the fib will begin to look like is found in my post on Saturday.When a fib grows or expands, it's original levels always remain intact, and new levels form farther out from the original fib. You can see this in those charts I posted Saturday, when I was fibbing a fib with another fib. The implication from this is that a fib that starts out very small, less than 50 pips lets say, has the ability to affect price hundreds, even thousands of pips away, all dictated by that small original fib. The point is this: Fibs don't stay in the same state, they always expand. Just because you have a fib drawn on a small place in price, does not mean that that fib just exists in that spot, it actually radiates out from that point and affects price later. I'll give you one more hint about what I am trying to get across. Instead of using fibs to measure the percent a move will pullback into itself, use it in a way that will show you how much a move has already developed and how much more room it has to keep growing. The idea is that you can draw big fib, on a little bit of price, and track it's evolution and growth. If you can know where price is in the whole scheme of it's growth, you can get in and out of the market in the best places possible. I'll attach another chart with the same fib from before, but I now have it in its 2nd phase of growth. This along with another reading of my Saturday posts should help. I want to mention that this is only the surface of trading fibs. There is much to learn along the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: blog34.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #4,174
  • Feb 17, 2009 3:09pm Feb 17, 2009 3:09pm
ok where in this thread shall i start ? to learn something i try to read it from start but i dont get what vhands are and the thread starter is gone ?

best regards
  • #4,175
  • Feb 17, 2009 3:16pm Feb 17, 2009 3:16pm
Quoting jgadefelth
ok where in this thread shall i start ? to learn something i try to read it from start but i dont get what vhands are and the thread starter is gone ?

best regards
Hi,
You can find the vhands thread here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849

But you don't really need vhands, if you scroll back in time on a (MT4) chart and then step it forward bar by bar using Function key 12 - provided that you don't cheat.
Ian
  • #4,176
  • Edited 3:25pm Feb 17, 2009 3:21pm | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting Scotty B
Hi friend,

I appreciate your thoughts here. Remember in my post that I said I drew what a fib looks in it's genesis, or it's beginning state to put it more clearly. This would exclude the possibility that some previous criteria regarding fib expansion compelled me to then move the fib where I have it drawn. The fib drawn is truly in it's first phase; It has not grown yet to accommodate further price movement. The truth is, every fib always looks like this in it's beginning. They key to understand what the fib will begin to look like is found in...
Hi Scotty,
But why draw to resistance instead of support?
If I had drawn that fib, the lower point would have been the support it hit just before it reversed up those few bars to the resistance.
That would also have made the first Fib's T1 much closer to the first extreme down spike and the second Fibs T1 would also have been closer to the bottom of its down spike.

Please explain your choice.
Thanks,
Ian
  • #4,177
  • Feb 17, 2009 3:21pm Feb 17, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting jgadefelth
ok where in this thread shall i start ? to learn something i try to read it from start but i dont get what vhands are and the thread starter is gone ?

best regards
I'll attach a PDF that contains all the significant posts skunny originally made, he ended up leaving this tread right when things started becoming more clear, and started his own website and forum where he charged folks $100 per month to learn more. That is why Skunny was originally banned, supposedly he is not doing this anymore and he was recently reinstated here at FF and this thread was pulled out of the garbage (I don't know the full story yet). So really, there is only so much you can learn from this thread, that's why I'm working to forge ahead with this fib stuff. Anyways...Enjoy the PDF, it will leave you scratching your head though. Get back here when you are done with it!

Scotty
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Skunny_posts.pdf   659 KB | 1,396 downloads
  • #4,178
  • Feb 17, 2009 3:25pm Feb 17, 2009 3:25pm
yes i look when everybars come by f12 but then what i think im missing something here


best regards
  • #4,179
  • Feb 17, 2009 3:29pm Feb 17, 2009 3:29pm
i shall read the pdf and thanks bouth of you for your answears.

about the threadstarter sounds odd look at james 16 i dont think he ever returns to FF because he have a great deal of members i think hes strategy works.

So why did he come back if the thread starter if his method was working ?

just a thout.

best regards
  • #4,180
  • Feb 17, 2009 3:29pm Feb 17, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Scotty,
But why draw to resistance instead of support?
If I had drawn that fib, the lower point would have been the support it hit just before it reversed up those few bars to the resistance.
That would also have made the T1 much closer to the first extreme down spike.

Please explain your choice.
Thanks,
Ian
Hey,

My chart was not meant as an explanation but as a key to lead you to understanding what I have been presenting. I mentioned in another post that a fib is truly on the right spot if and only if you get a perfect retracement to one of your inner fibs. I am speaking of a pip perfect retrace. We do this with out anchor points anyways, meaning we line them up pip perfectly, so why not do this with our inner fib levels? The inner fib area has to be correct for the fib to be correct.
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