DislikedA clear move above 1.2808 should close this gap...nice movement thus far.Ignored
- #8,862
- Feb 16, 2009 8:28am Feb 16, 2009 8:28am
What time will you need to get out of bed to come and play with us Brits at 6.00am GMT?
- #8,863
- Feb 16, 2009 8:41am Feb 16, 2009 8:41am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Let there be light! | 141 Posts
2 am cst
That'd be 1AM my local time (EST). Will have to start seeing what I can do, as getting to bed at 10-11PM and up at 1 doesn't seem to work very well - might have to start altering my bedtime to align with my children (7PM :-)
Haven't you ever thought about trading Soybeans or something like that?
RegardsPaul Eamonn
- #8,873
- Edited 11:14am Feb 16, 2009 9:50am | Edited 11:14am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,462 Posts
Hi Sam - the last time I gave feedback/opinions about a trade to someone on here he listened to me and it cost him money and I don't think he's spoken to me since!!
Still, I'm glad the trade worked out for you.
BTW - nice sunset on your front page! Take it yourself?
Heya Paul,
Silly kids listening to people on world wide web...
I just wanted to make sure my postings were lined up...I understand this thread does things a little different, which in turn sets it aside...but I wanted to ensure I was posting within the general expectations and hopefully, bringing some worthy thoughts or if nothing else, being well on my way to getting there.
Yep, the sunset was taken on my point and shoot, leaving LA for Cabo. It's 35 degrees and raining right now in WA...what I would give to be a little South of here
Thanks for the comment and feedback!
- #8,874
- Feb 16, 2009 10:06am Feb 16, 2009 10:06am
Anyone else watching the Euro/£ for a potential long at around 8900/25?
I would have thought those would not be strong picks right now, since price ignored the area entirely, in both directions, on the 13th (I know because I had a long at 8905 that got blown right through
). It looks like you did get a nice bounce at 8925, so congrats if you took it, but (in addition to the above question) how did you get 8925? That seems well above the supp/demand area, unless you are going off that spike sticking out of the area on Feb 5.
Sorry for the third degree, I'm just trying to get as many examples as I can of the thought process involved in deciding which levels are high probability.
- #8,876
- Feb 16, 2009 10:53am Feb 16, 2009 10:53am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Let there be light! | 141 Posts
Hi Orcus - sorry for the delay.
The easy answer to your questions is that I guessed and got it right for a change! I wish that were true.
The long answer is, yep you guessed it, longer. So here goes.
As yet I haven't settled into a trading method with regard to supply and demand/support and resistance because, like you, I'm still trying to sort it out. So some of this will gel with some people on here and to others it will be rather blasphemous.
The way I see it is that BRV, the man whose efforts are responsible for us being here, says (correct me if I'm wrong anybody) that he likes to see price touch a point a few times and, preferably, use it as both support and resistance. Whereas Sam Seiden says that he reckons the safest trades are taken when price revisits a supply/demand exhaustion point for the first time with the potential rejection in the direction of the trend.
With this Euro/£ trade I wasn't looking price action purely from a supply/demand perspective but also one of Elliott wave (RC - yeah I know you said to dump it, and I am trying - honest), Fibonacci and the supply/demand angle.
These are the facts as I saw them.
The low/consolidation around the 8770/8630 level was in the area of the 50% Fib support level taken from 9800 and 7690.
The high on the 12th Feb is also at a 50% Fib resistance point taken from 9520/8635.
And yeah you guessed it, the low from Friday was a 50% Fib support from 9068/8658.
I bet by now you're wishing you hadn't asked, eh?
The higher of the two levels was taken because it's a 50% support from this morning's high and Friday's low.
The low I got from the small demand area between about 8900/25 on Friday. Also there is confluence of two Fib levels taken from different points around the 8900 level.
So taking all that and doing a bit of Elliott wave analysis I decided there was a good chance it was going up from around that level.
I'd like to be able to tell you which of that list I felt was the most important but I can't. Not that I won't - it's because I can't. It just all seemed to gel.
And as I write this, price is at that little demand level from an hour ago and I reckon, if it turns there, it'll top out at the 9010 level.
I suspect there are such things as strong supply/demand levels (magnets?) and less strong. And I think your trade was the victim of a stronger one than the one you were trading - and now you really think I'm barking mad don't you?
Here I was leaning on Sam's thing about the 'first' revisit. For that area on Friday (15.45/16.00) this would have been the first visit back.
No problem. I hope it helps.
The easy answer to your questions is that I guessed and got it right for a change! I wish that were true.
The long answer is, yep you guessed it, longer. So here goes.
Hi Paul, could you elaborate on this pick for me? Is it because of the Seiden-esque supply/demand areas around Feb 4 and Feb 10 (and other reactions in the past)?
The way I see it is that BRV, the man whose efforts are responsible for us being here, says (correct me if I'm wrong anybody) that he likes to see price touch a point a few times and, preferably, use it as both support and resistance. Whereas Sam Seiden says that he reckons the safest trades are taken when price revisits a supply/demand exhaustion point for the first time with the potential rejection in the direction of the trend.
With this Euro/£ trade I wasn't looking price action purely from a supply/demand perspective but also one of Elliott wave (RC - yeah I know you said to dump it, and I am trying - honest), Fibonacci and the supply/demand angle.
These are the facts as I saw them.
The low/consolidation around the 8770/8630 level was in the area of the 50% Fib support level taken from 9800 and 7690.
The high on the 12th Feb is also at a 50% Fib resistance point taken from 9520/8635.
And yeah you guessed it, the low from Friday was a 50% Fib support from 9068/8658.
I bet by now you're wishing you hadn't asked, eh?
The higher of the two levels was taken because it's a 50% support from this morning's high and Friday's low.
The low I got from the small demand area between about 8900/25 on Friday. Also there is confluence of two Fib levels taken from different points around the 8900 level.
So taking all that and doing a bit of Elliott wave analysis I decided there was a good chance it was going up from around that level.
I'd like to be able to tell you which of that list I felt was the most important but I can't. Not that I won't - it's because I can't. It just all seemed to gel.
And as I write this, price is at that little demand level from an hour ago and I reckon, if it turns there, it'll top out at the 9010 level.
I would have thought those would not be strong picks right now, since price ignored the area entirely, in both directions, on the 13th (I know because I had a long at 8905 that got blown right through
It looks like you did get a nice bounce at 8925, so congrats if you took it, but (in addition to the above question) how did you get 8925? That seems well above the supp/demand area, unless you are going off that spike sticking out of the area on Feb 5.
Sorry for the third degree, I'm just trying to get as many examples as I can of the thought process involved in deciding which levels are high probability.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
- #8,879
- Feb 16, 2009 1:29pm Feb 16, 2009 1:29pm
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: I support the resistance | 1,033 Posts
- #8,880
- Feb 16, 2009 1:30pm Feb 16, 2009 1:30pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,462 Posts
Bored. Need to promoye a discussion.
Anyone got a particlar pair they want me post a chart for?
...please