Daily Cable Analysis | Page 400 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 49 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

CABLE Centurion 16 replies

Cable: Measuring Fibonacci From Where ? 29 replies

Attachments: Daily Cable Analysis
Exit Attachments

Daily Cable Analysis

  • #7,981
  • Mar 25, 2007 12:43am Mar 25, 2007 12:43am
This current wave C uptrend turns out to be far longer than initial projection. Its subwave (orange) 3 up turned out to be an extended one, and current subwave 4 down has nearly or already finished (1 more mini wave down possible). Subwave 5 will follow after, and its length will depend on where subwave 4 ends (will update about it again later).

Next possible subwave 4 targets:
- 38.2% subwave 3 (1.9306 - 1.9726) retracement at 1.9565.
- 50% at 1.9516 (whoa, compare it with DRT's River position above!)
- 61.8% at 1.9466 (unlikely but still possible).
We'll see next week. Just my opinion.

PS There you go, cesarnc, my FREAKIN EWs. Enjoy.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #7,982
  • Mar 25, 2007 2:50am Mar 25, 2007 2:50am
GBP/USD
Cable's rebound from 1.9183 extended further last week, reaching as high as
1.9726. Break of short term falling trend line (1.9913 to 1.9672) confirmed
that correction from 1.9913 has already completed at 1.9183. More importantly,
cable's failure to break firmly below 1.9215/17 cluster support (50%
retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9913 at 1.9215, 38.2% retracement of 1.8090 to
1.9913 at 1.9217) indicates that such fall from 1.9913 should be a correction
to the rise from 1.8517 only. Hence further rally is now expected to follow to
retest this 1.9913 high.

From a near term angle, a short term top should be formed at 1.9726 after 4
hours MACD was dragged down to below signal line by subsequent retreat. Further
consolidation is in favor towards 1.9552 support or lower. But such pull back
is expected to be contained above 1.9395 cluster support (61.8% retracement of
1.9183 to 1.9726 at 1.9390) and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.9726 will
indicate rise has resumed for 1.9913 high. However, below 1.9390/95 again will
argues that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and will bring this lower into
focus again.

In the bigger picture, with bearish divergence conditions being displayed in
weekly RSI and daily MACD a medium term top should be around the corner. The up
trend from 1.7047 should make a top after reaching 2.0046/0106 cluster
resistance zone (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at
2.0067, 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046. And hence,
focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches these levels. On the
downside, sustained break of 1.9215/17 cluster support will indicate that the
whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed earlier then we thought and
should the bring deeper correction to 1.8834 cluster support (38.2% retracement
of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

In the longer term picture, the break above 1.9554 resistance (04 high) is
favoring the case that long term up trend from 1.3680 has resumed after
correction from 1.9554 was supported by 55 months EMA. However the structure of
the medium term rise from 1.7047 is not clearly supporting this yet. And, we're
still skeptical on it. The structure of the fall after finishing the current up
trend from 1.7047 should reveal more information.
  • #7,983
  • Mar 25, 2007 3:18am Mar 25, 2007 3:18am
Something of value, thanks!

Very much appreciated.

Quoting DownRiverTrader
If you followed the trading recommendation from yesterday, you would now be short out of the 9683 area and looking for a move back to the River Level which comes in today at 9517.
I would like to remind everyone that the longer term trend is up on this pair and this is a high rsik countertrend trade so plan your risk accordingly. It is imperative that you reveiw the updated price distribution chart for a broader view as we near the end of March.
So what now?
The key to this trade is to manage your short properly. The move down that I anticipated did develop today. You should have accumulated profit out of the 9683 level. I would recommend viewing the short profit you have accumulated as ammunition that may need to be used. If we do trade down to the 9594 level there is a good chance that this demand level may provide a continuation for the move higher. Your advantage is that you can watch the battle from above and make a calm decision on how to proceed with little or no casualties if the battle turns against you.
If we do move through the 9594 Transition level, then we look for 9517 where I would cover. I anticipate our next move to come from the resolution of the River level and the 9443 level.
Looking ahead..if my view is incorrect then we will look to set up longs at 9594 over the next session.
BULLISH ABOVE RIVER AT 9517
http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-23-2007.PNG
Still waters run deep
  • #7,984
  • Mar 25, 2007 8:15am Mar 25, 2007 8:15am
Quoting Traex
Next possible subwave 4 targets:
- 38.2% subwave 3 (1.9306 - 1.9726) retracement at 1.9565.
- 50% at 1.9516 (whoa, compare it with DRT's River position above!)
- 61.8% at 1.9466 (unlikely but still possible).
We'll see next week. Just my opinion.
Too much "9517" appearing not to be a key price...

I don't have the talent to go at the pip like you guys, but 9525-9480 is definitely a key support area. Broken channel, fibos, 4hr 250EMA (and why not? EW!!!). I got myself buy limits in the area, just in case.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...nc/mar23-2.jpg

Quote
PS There you go, cesarnc, my FREAKIN EWs. Enjoy.
Damn EWs...
  • #7,985
  • Mar 25, 2007 9:14am Mar 25, 2007 9:14am
Quoting cesarnc
Too much "9517" appearing not to be a key price...
That's true; considering the nature of forex market, it'll try to either under- or over-shoot it lol. What we have are just possibilities.
Btw, you still haven't moved your lower red trendline channel there. Move second touch point from 1.9183 low to 1.9212 low few days after that!
Tra-X
  • #7,986
  • Mar 25, 2007 3:24pm Mar 25, 2007 3:24pm
Quoting Traex
Btw, you still haven't moved your lower red trendline channel there. Move second touch point from 1.9183 low to 1.9212 low few days after that!
Consider it done
  • #7,987
  • Mar 25, 2007 8:04pm Mar 25, 2007 8:04pm
At the end of last week, we established shorts near the 9683 level after the FOMC push upward. Our plan was to be in position for the anticipated move down to the strong demand level at 9594. We wanted to be able to watch this from above with our accumulated profit as ammunition. We did in fact get the move down and there has been quite a battle as we expected at this level so far. We closed at 9617. Traders should still be short from this level as we head into the new week.

What is our trading early in the week?

The first thing you should do is review the Price Distribution Analysis. You will understand the importance of the 9508/9594 level and it will be a catalyst to our next directional move. If this level holds, we should see higher levels above 9850. If the current demand at this level is overcome then we will likely move down towards 9350 of the bottom tier distribution. So the focus is own the resolution of the 9508/9594 level early in the week. In reveiwing the PDA, it appears that price needs to move down to balance but the evidence is not overwhelming.

So what now?

If you are short from the recommended 9683 level, stay short. You are in the best position to make a decision. This was our plan. If the move up begins strongly, you can cover and look to set up longs once it is confirmed. If sellers move price down thru the 9594 level, then target today's River Level of 9508.

If you did not set up shorts with us last week, then I would recomend you establish a position based on the break of this level. You may also wish to stand aside until this level is resolved and look to enter in a future session. There will be plenty of opportunity once this occurs.

A word of caution. Any strong move below 9594 intraday, could be met with heavy buying so be cautious in your short set ups. Novice traders will be trapped possibly and you do not fit in this category.

BULLISH ABOVE RIVER AT 9508

http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-26-2007.PNG
  • #7,988
  • Mar 26, 2007 3:30am Mar 26, 2007 3:30am
DownRiverTrader

That would be give me clear plan.........

I hope....now short at 9600
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #7,989
  • Mar 26, 2007 6:34am Mar 26, 2007 6:34am
keep you eye on that 9594 level. it will be a tuff one.
  • #7,990
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:01am Mar 26, 2007 8:01am
Buying dips at 95s is gone, guys... It is going up today to price this April hike in....

Quick dip on the news and I get my soldiers in...
  • #7,991
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:09am Mar 26, 2007 8:09am
Quoting cesarnc
Buying dips at 95s is gone, guys... It is going up today to price this April hike in....

Quick dip on the news and I get my soldiers in...
how d u measure that?
I`m a newbie to Forex, so tell me if i`m wrong.
  • #7,992
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:22am Mar 26, 2007 8:22am
Quoting smesul
how d u measure that?
Gut feeling... I don't see this upcoming news sending us 50-100 pips down + weak but present supports at 15M 250 EMA + 9580 + 9555 (classic 9XXX)

It's being quite sometime since the last news that made it. Unless we get an unbelievably awesone figure coming up.
  • #7,993
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:32am Mar 26, 2007 8:32am
Quoting cesarnc
Gut feeling... I don't see this upcoming news sending us 50-100 pips down + weak but present supports at 15M 250 EMA + 9580 + 9555 (classic 9XXX)

It's being quite sometime since the last news that made it. Unless we get an unbelievably awesone figure coming up.
my indi also state that price will go up but i want wait for news first!! heheeh...maybe to put tp at 9700 is possible tonite?
I`m a newbie to Forex, so tell me if i`m wrong.
  • #7,994
  • Mar 26, 2007 9:57am Mar 26, 2007 9:57am
bad day add short 9692
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #7,995
  • Mar 26, 2007 10:13am Mar 26, 2007 10:13am
same here. When short then.....the housing data came out..... Everything just went down from there
  • #7,996
  • Mar 26, 2007 1:04pm Mar 26, 2007 1:04pm
but no worry.........9720-9750 is very strong..........base on daily chart.


How High Can He Go ?

Next time..........

How Low Can He Go ?

I just see a star........
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #7,997
  • Mar 26, 2007 1:30pm Mar 26, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting Al1nn
same here. When short then.....the housing data came out..... Everything just went down from there
I know just how you feel.

I had 4 trades open this morning and all of them profitable. After the housing data, I have 2 mildly profitable trades (much less than before the news) and 2 VERY unprofitable trades, including cable.
  • #7,998
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:09pm Mar 26, 2007 7:09pm
Cable rebounds strongly in early US session. Break of 1.9690 minor resistance
indicate that retreat from 1.9726 should have completed at 1.9570 already.
Break above 1.9726 high will confirm recent rally has resumed for 1.9913 high.
Meanwhile, below 1.9570 again will suggest that cable is still bounded in
sideway consolidation. But still, pull back is expected to be contained well
above 1.9395 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 1.9726 at 1.9390)
and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with bearish divergence conditions being displayed in
weekly RSI and daily MACD a medium term top should be around the corner. The up
trend from 1.7047 should make a top after reaching 2.0076/0106 cluster
resistance zone (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at
2.0067, 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9213 at 2.0076. And hence,
focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches these levels.

On the downside, sustained break of 1.9215/17 cluster support will indicate
that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed earlier then we
thought and should the bring deeper correction to 1.8834 cluster support (38.2%
retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.
  • #7,999
  • Mar 26, 2007 9:59pm Mar 26, 2007 9:59pm
Subwave (orange) 4 retracement made its end at 1.9569, and quickly rebounded up as subwave 5. Currently it's likely to be in mini wave (magenta) 4 before making final rally upwards.
Since subwave 1 last last week was ~160-180 pips long (1.9212 - 1.9373/1.9392), subwave 5 might target ~1.9730 - 1.9750 before ending, marking the end of the larger degree wave C (?) up too.
We'll see. Just my opinion.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #8,000
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:15am Mar 27, 2007 6:15am
Quoting nuancom
Cable rebounds strongly in early US session. Break of 1.9690 minor resistance
indicate that retreat from 1.9726 should have completed at 1.9570 already.
Break above 1.9726 high will confirm recent rally has resumed for 1.9913 high.
Meanwhile, below 1.9570 again will suggest that cable is still bounded in
sideway consolidation. But still, pull back is expected to be contained well
above 1.9395 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 1.9726 at 1.9390)
and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with bearish divergence conditions being displayed in
weekly RSI and daily MACD a medium term top should be around the corner. The up
trend from 1.7047 should make a top after reaching 2.0076/0106 cluster
resistance zone (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at
2.0067, 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9213 at 2.0076. And hence,
focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches these levels.

On the downside, sustained break of 1.9215/17 cluster support will indicate
that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed earlier then we
thought and should the bring deeper correction to 1.8834 cluster support (38.2%
retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

so u mean is good time for short now ?
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
3 traders viewing now