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Trading aud/nzd successfully

  • #1,321
  • Feb 15, 2009 2:47am Feb 15, 2009 2:47am
Quoting Tjpld
Nice work. Looking forward to testing it next week.
Altought i'm losing the overview with all the 100x80 50x60 20x30 9x9 23x44 Aud/Cad Aud/Nzd Versions and Modifications ^^
Keep each EA in its thread. This thread is only for AUD/NZD and they are all very similar. They trade within a 200 pip range it is just they take different TPs. In other words variations of a theme.
  • #1,322
  • Feb 15, 2009 3:56am Feb 15, 2009 3:56am
Quoting nanningbob
Most of my EAs earlier have been large TP with small entrances. This time I use smaller TP and larger entrances. When price trends in one direction it will TP every 20 pips, as it travels it will only reenter every 50 thereby giving it a much wider range and smaller losses if you ever take them. This also seems to help compensate for the larger spreads we have been hit with. In three days using .50 2.00 and 8.00 it only went to the third level 1 time. It also made 1500 dollars during that time. The one I have in this folder however is .05, .20,...
10 Feb to 13 Feb seems to have tight range and you start using after the big drop. Hope next week audnzd will do some trending and we'll see how it will work out. I think if this EA was started a day before, the result wouldnt be good ?

And if start using a month before, it will get wash away on Jan 13
  • #1,323
  • Feb 15, 2009 4:14am Feb 15, 2009 4:14am
Quoting forexisfx
10 Feb to 13 Feb seems to have tight range and you start using after the big drop. Hope next week audnzd will do some trending and we'll see how it will work out. I think if this EA was started a day before, the result wouldnt be good ?

And if start using a month before, it will get wash away on Jan 13
Yes but the deficit is not as big, that is the thing about 3 level systems
  • #1,324
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:37am Feb 15, 2009 5:37am
Quoting nanningbob
Yes but the deficit is not as big, that is the thing about 3 level systems
U are looking at the deficit for SL ? The SL is huge, I need to

TP level 3 37 times to get back the loss OR

TP level 2 90 times to get back the loss OR

TP level 1 225 times to get back the loss

and before I do that, I think it gonna loss again and can never get back the loss.



If u are looking at deficit for level 3 (assuming the SL is 150 instead of 300 becoz we no longer looking at 300 SL), it gonna take

TP level 3 11 times to get back the loss OR

TP level 2 27 times to get back the loss OR

TP level 1 67 times to get back the loss

I think the deficit is big. From the looks of it, the deficit looks big, but I don't have information about how much it gonna earn on average, so I don't know what's the time needed to recover losses.
  • #1,325
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:43am Feb 15, 2009 5:43am
Quoting forexisfx
I mean the 2nd chart is AUDNZD also, it suppose to be AUDCAD ? Or u are trading both 1H and 5 Min chart for AUDNZD ?
Oh, that was just a visual example of what my chart look like. I trade both aud/nzd and aud/cad 1 hr as well as 5minute.


Interesting bob... I was actually looking into setting much like that. Right now though I've just been using smaller lot sizes to make up for the increase in spread during the london session I'll up my lots when spread is in the teens.
  • #1,326
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:46am Feb 15, 2009 5:46am
Quoting forexisfx
U are looking at the deficit for SL ? The SL is huge, I need to

TP level 3 37 times to get back the loss OR

TP level 2 90 times to get back the loss OR

TP level 1 225 times to get back the loss

and before I do that, I think it gonna loss again and can never get back the loss.



If u are looking at deficit for level 3 (assuming the SL is 150 instead of 300 becoz we no longer looking at 300 SL), it gonna take

TP level 3 11 times to get back the loss OR

TP level 2 27 times to get back the loss OR

TP level...
Am i missing something ? Please enlighten me.
  • #1,327
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:47am Feb 15, 2009 5:47am
Quoting Verto
Oh, that was just a visual example of what my chart look like. I trade both aud/nzd and aud/cad 1 hr as well as 5minute.


Interesting bob... I was actually looking into setting much like that. Right now though I've just been using smaller lot sizes to make up for the increase in spread during the london session I'll up my lots when spread is in the teens.
So altogether u trade 4 charts, now I understand why u got 133 trades in 1 week trading 2 pairs.
  • #1,328
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:26am Feb 15, 2009 7:26am
Quoting forexisfx
So altogether u trade 4 charts, now I understand why u got 133 trades in 1 week trading 2 pairs.
I will test a 35x50 this week which easily goes 4 levels and a 90 x100 going 5 levels. There are so many possibilities now. Yeah if we can corral the aud/cad and the eur/cad into this system we would have a nice little money maker.
  • #1,329
  • Feb 15, 2009 10:32am Feb 15, 2009 10:32am
Quoting nanningbob
Most of my EAs earlier have been large TP with small entrances. This time I use smaller TP and larger entrances. When price trends in one direction it will TP every 20 pips, as it travels it will only reenter every 50 thereby giving it a much wider range and smaller losses if you ever take them. This also seems to help compensate for the larger spreads we have been hit with. In three days using .50 2.00 and 8.00 it only went to the third level 1 time. It also made 1500 dollars during that time. The one I have in this folder however is .05, .20,...
hi bob,

first i want to thank you for the great work you do in FF.

Now I have some questions to the new variation of your X x X-EA:

In this new version 20x50 of your EA you have no SL.How do you work with an bigger move over Level 3? Manual stop or recovery EA ?

On the other side you have not the "empty" zone around the MA like in your previous EA´s.You split sell/buy only by the daily MA.So you are every time in the market.

Do I understand this right?

aiti
  • #1,330
  • Edited 4:28pm Feb 15, 2009 4:09pm | Edited 4:28pm
In trying to run the new 20x50 I can't get the sell side to work. The 20x50 is an always trade ea? Correct?
Never Mind, I rebooted the machine, now everything is Hunky Dory....
  • #1,331
  • Feb 15, 2009 4:35pm Feb 15, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting aiti
hi bob,

first i want to thank you for the great work you do in FF.

Now I have some questions to the new variation of your X x X-EA:

In this new version 20x50 of your EA you have no SL.How do you work with an bigger move over Level 3? Manual stop or recovery EA ?

On the other side you have not the "empty" zone around the MA like in your previous EA´s.You split sell/buy only by the daily MA.So you are every time in the market.

Do I understand this right?

aiti
That is why there are different threads for the different EAs This one is always buying and selling no zones
  • #1,332
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:59am Feb 16, 2009 3:59am
Hey guys,

I was away for the weekend and had a bit of a chance to take a step back and assess my trading strategy using several of Bob's EA's. Anyway, while working on a few ideas, a thought struck me. It seemed absurd at first, but after giving it some more thought and seemed to make more and more sense. So there was obviously only one thing to do, post here and get some input from my fellow EA'ers

I was thinking about the original EA and the recovery EA that Bob has recently been testing and then it hit me, what if we traded a 'true' hedge as such to recover a loss. So what I was thinking of doing was trading the following:
50x30
4 levels deep
starting directly from the 120MA on the 5 min chart, no buffer for spread whatsoever.
no SL

Why no SL you may ask, what that's where the recovery part comes into it. Instead of using a recovery EA such as Bob has been using, what if instead, at a predetermined position you took a trade WITH the trend. That trade would be a single trade with a big enough lot size to recoup you the losses of your original four levels.

In theory this seems to work, so I have started to demo this system today to see what happens. In real terms you should be able to come out ahead eith way or at the very least minimize your losses almost completely. If the trade does actually retrace to your 4th level, you make sure your profit is enough to cancel out the recovery hedge you took. If the trend goes on to TP on your hedge trade, the profit must be enough to cancel out the 4 level loss. Anybody see any flaws in my reasoning?

Sorry about the long post, just wanted to be clear as possible.
"The market giveth and the market taketh away"
  • #1,333
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:13am Feb 16, 2009 4:13am
Quoting urbanFX
Hey guys,

I was away for the weekend and had a bit of a chance to take a step back and assess my trading strategy using several of Bob's EA's. Anyway, while working on a few ideas, a thought struck me. It seemed absurd at first, but after giving it some more thought and seemed to make more and more sense. So there was obviously only one thing to do, post here and get some input from my fellow EA'ers

I was thinking about the original EA and the recovery EA that Bob has recently been testing and then it hit me, what if we traded a 'true' hedge...
If that is possible, we don't have to trade the MA. Open buy and sell at the same time and whenever max trade is reached, open hedge trade to make it break even.

It sounds like the holy grail where u never loss. But I don't think such Math exist at least for me.

nanningbob Math is very good, maybe he can find some good number to do this ?

Imagine you are taking 1 bad trade and you hedge it to make it break even or loss lesser. Everybody wish they could make their bad trade break even.
  • #1,334
  • Feb 16, 2009 4:25am Feb 16, 2009 4:25am
I worked out the math in the excel spreadsheet and it is most certainly possible. It will never be perfect due to spreads etc, but you could get pretty close to cancelling out your losses.

But I do agree with you it seems awfully simple, that was I was posing the question to everybody here.

Thanks for the input!
"The market giveth and the market taketh away"
  • #1,335
  • Feb 16, 2009 5:27am Feb 16, 2009 5:27am
I am not sure I understand what you are saying here but my experience with hedging I have reached two conclusions. One: hedge when a trade goes bad and I just dont want to deal with it now. In other words you stop it from getting bigger and come back another day when you are fresh. Two: The problem I have always had with hedging is now I have two trades to deal with instead of one. Even though I sometimes solve my problem at other times I have doubled my problem.

I had tried once a trading strategy where I just did a buy and a sell and I didnt care where price went. At the end of the day I would take my full profit and eliminate 60% of the loss and then hedged the rest until one of them made a profit. I would close the profit and eliminate the same amount in the loss. I would do this until I had 10% of my trade left and then do a full lot trade to eliminate the 10%. Worked great as long as the last trade made a profit. I will reread your posts and try to understand it but does this make any sense????
  • #1,336
  • Feb 16, 2009 5:46am Feb 16, 2009 5:46am
Right, I can see how the post can be a bit confusing, so let me try a working example using 50x30, going 4 levels deep, starting at 0.5 and multiplying by 2.... I hope at the end this makes sense lol.

At 0 we open a BUY trade
Price drops 30 pips so we open level 2
Price drops 60 pips so we open level 3
Price drops 90 pips so we open our 4th and final level.

However, at 60 pips, where we took our level 3 trade, we also take a SELL trade with a TP of 40 (At a staggering 7 lots in size lol).

Using those lot sizes, if price comes back from 90 pips and takes the 4th level TP we make enough profit to cover the loss of the SELL trade. If price carries on dropping and takes our SELL TP, we make enough to cover our 4 level loss.

Like I said, spread aside, the numbers do work out. If your 4 level trade TP you would make $115, however your SELL trade would lose $77 so you would show a profit of $38. If you went on to TP on the SELL trade you would make $154 and lose $132 on your 4 level trade, so you would still end up $22 ahead.

Is this making anymore sens now?
"The market giveth and the market taketh away"
  • #1,337
  • Feb 16, 2009 5:56am Feb 16, 2009 5:56am
If this works the way I calculate it, you can use fairly big lot sizes on small accounts. Your only concern would be keeping your calculations within your account margins.....
"The market giveth and the market taketh away"
  • #1,338
  • Edited 6:25am Feb 16, 2009 6:06am | Edited 6:25am
Quoting urbanFX
At 0 we open a BUY trade
Price drops 30 pips so we open level 2
Price drops 60 pips so we open level 3
Price drops 90 pips so we open our 4th and final level.

However, at 60 pips, where we took our level 3 trade, we also take a SELL trade with a TP of 40 (At a staggering 7 lots in size lol).

Using those lot sizes, if price comes back from 90 pips and takes the 4th level TP we make enough profit to cover the loss of the SELL trade. If price carries on dropping and takes our SELL TP, we make enough to cover our 4 level loss.
What happens when it only hit level 3 and u TP level 3 ? The trade end up losing ? I believe level 3 TP will occur a lot more times than level 4 TP

However, if that is true, it's better to lose on level 3 than getting hit on SL or level 4 DD.

So, we end up

level 1 Win
level 2 Win
level 3 Lose
level 4 Break even / small win

If level 3 happen too often, it is worth using the hedge ?
  • #1,339
  • Feb 16, 2009 7:16am Feb 16, 2009 7:16am
Good point, perhaps you could scale in the hedge trade aswell. Let me see if it's possible to get the numbers to work that way

Quoting forexisfx
What happens when it only hit level 3 and u TP level 3 ? The trade end up losing ? I believe level 3 TP will occur a lot more times than level 4 TP

However, if that is true, it's better to lose on level 3 than getting hit on SL or level 4 DD.

So, we end up

level 1 Win
level 2 Win
level 3 Lose
level 4 Break even / small win

If level 3 happen too often, it is worth using the hedge ?
"The market giveth and the market taketh away"
  • #1,340
  • Feb 16, 2009 7:17am Feb 16, 2009 7:17am
Quoting aiti
hi bob,

first i want to thank you for the great work you do in FF.

Now I have some questions to the new variation of your X x X-EA:

In this new version 20x50 of your EA you have no SL.How do you work with an bigger move over Level 3? Manual stop or recovery EA ?

On the other side you have not the "empty" zone around the MA like in your previous EA´s.You split sell/buy only by the daily MA.So you are every time in the market.

Do I understand this right?

aiti
right now I want to see what happens instead of a 4th level. Right now it is showing very good profit because you have very few levels operating against you. Most trades you have 1 or two levels against you while you profit as it goes with the trend. With a 20 PIP retrace it gets out of trouble very quickly. I will watch my demo and see how it works, but I am looking at the feed back and will get back with you guys.
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