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THV system, final edition

  • #5,981
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:05pm Feb 15, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting SeerEye
on the 2000 posts. BTW - look at the posts now on the thread!! Closing on 6000 -

Have a great day everybody -
Is it true that more popular a trading system becomes, less effective it becomes because of flood of orders hitting around same entry/exit points? Or the market is so big that volume generated by any system is too inconsequential.
  • #5,982
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:15pm Feb 15, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting maneddi
yes i saw the manual but it doesn't say that reverse and hidden are the same thing.
They are not "the same thing" as they are based on different measurements of both indicator and price... but there are bullish and bearish for both.
  • #5,983
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:19pm Feb 15, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting cobraforex
Hi everybody, I hope you had a relaxing weekend.

I wish you a great trading week and don't forget that about 80% of all weekend gaps get filled.

Hope this isn't one of those 20%

Upps, 2000 posts, gonna have a champagne
Congrats on 2000 Cobra! Hope you had a great weekend. I'm just getting my trading plan together for the week ahead. Let's hope it's a great one.
txtaz
  • #5,984
  • Feb 15, 2009 5:23pm Feb 15, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting kerty9
Is it true that more popular a trading system becomes, less effective it becomes because of flood of orders hitting around same entry/exit points? Or the market is so big that volume generated by any system is too inconsequential.
The volume of retail trading, according to Wikipedia, was around 2%+ for 2006 of the total volume traded in Forex.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market

Let's say that it could have grown 10 times in the last 3 years, that would still be only a 20% of the total volume... which I don't think would influence much, and neither would that 20% be trading the same system.

The systems decrease their effectiveness if they are not adjusted to the changes in the market behaviour throughout the months or years, for example, volatility in EUR/USD was much lower a few years ago, thus a system based on this would become obsolete and of course wouldn't be yielding the same results over time.
  • #5,985
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:17pm Feb 15, 2009 6:17pm
I would guess that even with a great system (and I mean a really great system) would still only have about a 10% success rate. (5% would break even and 5% would make money). This is because most small, individual traders never master the more important aspects of trading - MM. and emotions.

Given that, I don't think any system could ever have more than an insignificant impact on the market. Just my humble opinion. Trade well.
Hej.
  • #5,986
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:34pm Feb 15, 2009 6:34pm
I couldn't agree more TradeWell. I trade the Asian session as a warm up leading to the London and US overlap.

Quoting TradeWell
Nevertheless, it is still important to keep an eye on S&R's and TL's. These are the strongest adversaries of THV. Beyond those borders, probably the hardest time to NOT use THV is in a tightly ranging market, when you get a signal to trade THV but it goes nowhere. Usually a TL stops you from trading but not always. Identifying this kind of market takes some experience, but time of day usually gives you the clue. Trading only the London session is a great filter for that.

Just some Saturday thoughts...
  • #5,987
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:45pm Feb 15, 2009 6:45pm
Congrats to Cobra on your 2000th post. While I have been quiet lately, I appreciate the opportunity to help on THV and consider this thread the friendliest, most productive thread I have used on ForexFactory.

Happy for you Cobra, and as always, many thanks for your generosity and advice. If we will the gap, I will go a long way toward clearing up my problems. If not, uh oh.

P.S. Tradewell and Doblece, your efforts never go overlooked in my mind. Thanks for all you do.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #5,988
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:45pm Feb 15, 2009 6:45pm
Quoting caveman
I couldn't agree more TradeWell. I trade the Asian session as a warm up leading to the London and US overlap.
Do you trade all the Asian session? I found that most activity there happens near the end of the session.
  • #5,989
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:50pm Feb 15, 2009 6:50pm
The weekend was a much needed break.

Cobra, you really trade gaps? For me, I prefer to avoid them like a plague. Will give it sometime to settle in before I start trading. Got burnt a few times even with the 80% chance.

Quoting cobraforex
Hi everybody, I hope you had a relaxing weekend.

I wish you a great trading week and don't forget that about 80% of all weekend gaps get filled.

Hope this isn't one of those 20%

Upps, 2000 posts, gonna have a champagne
  • #5,990
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:55pm Feb 15, 2009 6:55pm
Working the gap as we speak since market open on FXDD, scored so far 32 pips, so it does work, but you need to be patient and careful.
  • #5,991
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:57pm Feb 15, 2009 6:57pm
waiting for it to test 1.2855 to decide to long again
  • #5,992
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:03pm Feb 15, 2009 7:03pm
Long @ 1.2963
  • #5,993
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:04pm Feb 15, 2009 7:04pm
Yes I do. My day starts an hour before Tokyo opens for preparation and leads right into the one hour overlap of London session. Then take a break to visit my daughter at my in-laws place and have dinner. After that, a short drive home and back to trade the London/US overlap sessions for another 3 hours.

Asian sessions are forgiving. Movement is slow and it gives you lots of reaction time as compared to London and US sessions.

What you noticed may be the last hour of Japan/London overlap. For the overlap, London session being large and mighty has its own mind about trend and does not usually take the lead from the Asian session. You will also see movements right around and after Japan lunch hours.

Movements during these timing are erratic and caution should be taken.

Quoting TradeWell
Do you trade all the Asian session? I found that most activity there happens near the end of the session.
  • #5,994
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:05pm Feb 15, 2009 7:05pm
Quoting caveman
The weekend was a much needed break.

Cobra, you really trade gaps? For me, I prefer to avoid them like a plague. Will give it sometime to settle in before I start trading. Got burnt a few times even with the 80% chance.
Yes, I like to trade them and had mostly good results.

Of course it's not a scalp trade, patience is the key.
  • #5,995
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:09pm Feb 15, 2009 7:09pm
Quoting Freddyfx
Long @ 1.2763
that trade has a good R/R relation as S3 was retested
  • #5,996
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:11pm Feb 15, 2009 7:11pm
Hey Freddy,

Which pair are you on?

Cheers,
CaveMan

Quoting Freddyfx
Long @ 1.2963
  • #5,997
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:12pm Feb 15, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting SpecialEd
Congrats to Cobra on your 2000th post. While I have been quiet lately, I appreciate the opportunity to help on THV and consider this thread the friendliest, most productive thread I have used on ForexFactory.

Happy for you Cobra, and as always, many thanks for your generosity and advice. If we fill the gap, I will go a long way toward clearing up my problems. If not, uh oh.

P.S. Tradewell and Doblece, your efforts never go overlooked in my mind. Thanks for all you do.
Thanks Ed, I hope it will work out for you (and for me too)
  • #5,998
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:13pm Feb 15, 2009 7:13pm
I ONLY trade EURUSD and use the pip charts next to the THV for verification, there I saw the move already developing.
  • #5,999
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:14pm Feb 15, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting caveman
Hey Freddy,

Which pair are you on?

Cheers,
CaveMan
Was a typo caveman, I corrected it in my reply
  • #6,000
  • Feb 15, 2009 7:14pm Feb 15, 2009 7:14pm
Any Dutch speaking traders in here, please contact me per [email protected]
as I made a Dutch article about the trading style/money management to share with you.

Spreek je Nederlands, neem dan contact met mij per mijn email adres eerder vermeldt.
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