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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #18,741
  • Feb 13, 2009 10:33am Feb 13, 2009 10:33am
oRANGE:

"I am not sure about the others...but I am still waiting for a clear angle and gap between 8 & 21 before I take any entry decision."

I couldn't agree more. I've been mainly trading the 5min when the 4hr is approaching another one of the s/r area on the EURUSD. Right now it's approaching the downtrend line. I'm long here per a 5min entry but the 4hr rhythm trades on this pair are on hold until we get out of here. The Dow and SP are stuck as well so when those break out, this pair should too.
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  • #18,742
  • Feb 14, 2009 2:37am Feb 14, 2009 2:37am
Hello all, I have been so busy these past few days that I didn't get a chance to post but got sometime finally to post some thoughts......

Orange, Palmer:

I couldn't agree with you guys more. I have been on the sidelines as well on the Eur/usd until we are out of this range. Just not my cup of tea to enter at these levels, I rather wait for a higher probability trade.

As Orange stated in this previous post, this is a trending method. Your high probability trades are with a trending currency (the Eur specially since most of us seem to trade that more than others on this thread). Consolidation periods will also give you chances to enter but you must be careful as a nice channel has been established and you take your trades from the top and bottom channel lines usually with Round top and Round bottom MACD signal.

For example: The Usd/jpy as per the chart attached has been in a triangle just like the Eur/Usd and like Palmer I try to avoid the GBP/Usd as the swings are much higher than my risk tolerance. So as you can see the triangle, price has tested the bottom trend line/channel line 5 times and the more touches the more strenght the line will hold.

On the last touch, not only did we have a Double bottom with those 2 nice tails, but we also had a higher low MACD signal and also the 89sma was right there as well. I took this trade on for reasons mentioned above as I saw this as a high probability trade with all the confluence of events occuring at the same time and as you can see, price went all the way up to test the upper channel line. I closed my trade since it was friday and we might see the upper trend line act as resistance and price to turn around or just break above it...........we would have to wait and see but if you have had some positive pips within this consolidation triangle, then you can set yourself up for a possible breakout with the right signal inside the triangle other wise as Orange stated, wait for a clear trend to establish itself and it will, just be patient.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,743
  • Feb 14, 2009 4:37am Feb 14, 2009 4:37am
nice thanks that you share your charts

Regards
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  • #18,744
  • Feb 15, 2009 11:14am Feb 15, 2009 11:14am
I am finding the MACD indi like the one in the picture. If you know pls help. Great thanks!
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  • #18,745
  • Edited 7:27pm Feb 15, 2009 1:58pm | Edited 7:27pm
Looks like we have opened up with big gaps in the GBP and EUR not as big for the USD/JPY................As I have noticed 90% of the time, these gaps get filled in quickly before heading back to the original direction......

Usd/Jpy looks like a nice long trade once it breaks the trend line.........or we could see a bounce off of trend line to the short side....time will tell

Tomorrow US markets closed so keep that in mind
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,746
  • Edited 8:24pm Feb 15, 2009 8:09pm | Edited 8:24pm
Quoting time1300
Looks like we have opened up with big gaps in the GBP and EUR not as big for the USD/JPY................As I have noticed 90% of the time, these gaps get filled in quickly before heading back to the original direction......
If the trend line from point Cto pint D is broken, the fills still may be caused by the sup trend line extended from point A to point B as in my Daily before the market continues its direction. Might see a strong rhythm in h4...we'll see if that happened.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,747
  • Feb 16, 2009 2:19am Feb 16, 2009 2:19am
Good Morning All,

After seeing the size of the gap which has formed on both EUR & GBP I'm expect a period of consolidation to allow the 8EMA on the 4H & 1D to catch up. From here we may see some rhythm & resistance develop to the downside. For now save your ammo and wait for the market to show us its direction.
  • #18,748
  • Feb 16, 2009 2:22am Feb 16, 2009 2:22am
Quoting Exciter135
I am finding the MACD indi like the one in the picture. If you know pls help. Great thanks!
Not sure what you are asking here Exciter? The indicators on this thread are for metatrader: www.metaquotes.net

If you are asking about your entry please specify what it is you want to know.

cheers WG
  • #18,749
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:01am Feb 16, 2009 3:01am
Quoting Palmer
oRANGE:

"I am not sure about the others...but I am still waiting for a clear angle and gap between 8 & 21 before I take any entry decision."

I couldn't agree more. I've been mainly trading the 5min when the 4hr is approaching another one of the s/r area on the EURUSD. Right now it's approaching the downtrend line. I'm long here per a 5min entry but the 4hr rhythm trades on this pair are on hold until we get out of here. The Dow and SP are stuck as well so when those break out, this pair should too.
Morning Fella,

After my nightmare trade Friday afternoon (selling .4753 - we won't talk about that) I believe the both EUR & GBP are in a large box range where alot of big players are entering / exiting the market. This would explain the lack of direction and the large candle wicks which have been present for just over a week now. Its times like these where we can use the 5M method, however for those of you who are new the to the thread use this time to go back through the charts and backtest the method which will give you confidence in conviction.

cheers WG
  • #18,750
  • Edited Feb 17, 2009 2:42am Feb 16, 2009 6:12am | Edited Feb 17, 2009 2:42am
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BUY 0.2SLOT EURUSD @20090216 12:10 @ 1.2763 ST 1.2710(-53) TP:1.2830(+57)
sell 0.1SLOT EURUSD @20090216 15:04 @ 1.2788ST +25pips st1.2738 tp1.2840
sell 0.1SLOT EURUSD @20090217 00:20 @ 1.2794ST +31pips (31+25)/2=28pips
  • #18,751
  • Feb 16, 2009 6:17am Feb 16, 2009 6:17am
Quoting Exciter135
I am finding the MACD indi like the one in the picture. If you know pls help. Great thanks!
You might want to post that in the Programming Discussion thread. I have seen that before...somewhere.....

Yeah, we're stuck in this box alright. I've been hearing that there are billions of dollars on the sidelines waiting to go into securities when 'something' happens to spark the market. Not sure what that spark is but it should get this pair going as well.

Time: The cable seems to have always been rather spikey, it's the nature of that beast. I haven't traded it much. I'm still bummed that ODL pulled out of the US, miss the 2 pip spread on the four majors. No complaints with FXDD but it's mainly be the EU and Yen with them..

I sent a pdf to Phillip about using the 5min to get in on the 4hr so when I get his 'edits' back I'll post it here.

Markets are closed...back to work on the 78' 280Z...just as much fun.
  • #18,752
  • Feb 16, 2009 7:55am Feb 16, 2009 7:55am
Hallo to everybody. I read nearly through all important posts.
I'm going to start with a demo account tomorrow and i want to say hallo. I'm new to Forexfactory. I was trading with forex 2 years ago and than i stopped, because i had no time. But i found this topic now on forex factory and i got interessted again.

Is there any skype chat open and active for this post in the moment? Or any other active chats.

Btw, it took me about 7 days to prepair for this, so i'm realy excited if im able to trade.

thx to phillip, for all the teaching. It is great experience here.
thx to everybody for good tipps.

cya soon
  • #18,753
  • Feb 16, 2009 11:50am Feb 16, 2009 11:50am
Hi IvoHR, welcome.
  • #18,754
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:13pm Feb 16, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting IvoHR
Hallo to everybody. I read nearly through all important posts.
I'm going to start with a demo account tomorrow and i want to say hallo. I'm new to Forexfactory. I was trading with forex 2 years ago and than i stopped, because i had no time. But i found this topic now on forex factory and i got interessted again.

Is there any skype chat open and active for this post in the moment? Or any other active chats.

Btw, it took me about 7 days to prepair for this, so i'm realy excited if im able to trade.

thx to phillip, for all the teaching. It is great...
Ivo:

Welcome aboard! There was a skype chat room about a year or so ago but that was hard to manage becuase of the different parts of the planet we all live on so for now, this thread is where the action is.

The EURUSD...not a whole lot new to report on here. Per the rhythm of things and the moving averages...the trend is down. We've been stuck here for a good two weeks so it's a waiting game until we break out. Lots of S and R as usual, we'll see what tomorrow brings...
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  • #18,755
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:19pm Feb 16, 2009 3:19pm
Palmer,

What are your thoughts for the USD/JPY......

EUR/USD definitely needs to get out of this area and I agree with Palmer. Recently there is a huge correlation with the Dow Jones and this pair and this pair is looking for a direction just like the market is waiting.........
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,756
  • Feb 16, 2009 3:53pm Feb 16, 2009 3:53pm
Dean:

I see the 4hr USDJPY as fighting resistance right now. The daily trend is clearly down but the 4hr has turned a little bullish with a double top forming with a downtrend line, the 365 in the way, along with the 23.6 Fib# right there. This is a tough card to play right now given the $ and what the US indexes are doing....all the majors look difficult right now.

For the new faces showing up...The rhythm for the major pairs is pretty much stagnant right now. Take time to review some charts while things are stuck. Even if things break out tomorrow or in the next 5 minutes don't think you missed the move because, per the method, it's a guess right now.

Be patient, the markets aren't going anywhere...
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  • #18,757
  • Feb 16, 2009 6:05pm Feb 16, 2009 6:05pm
Quoting Palmer
For the new faces showing up...The rhythm for the major pairs is pretty much stagnant right now. Take time to review some charts while things are stuck. Even if things break out tomorrow or in the next 5 minutes don't think you missed the move because, per the method, it's a guess right now.

Be patient, the markets aren't going anywhere...
Hi Palmer...and...
Hello to all...

I "guess" that we may already find some/little move here about EU direction.

If the recent "long BEARISH" candle in h4 is closed below the support trend line, there could be a strong chance of this pair continuing its downtrend rhythm. H4 MACD window shows a TC signal so far.

We can get a clearer view in h1 as well.

p/s-nice chat yesterday, SMITH

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,758
  • Feb 16, 2009 6:17pm Feb 16, 2009 6:17pm
I don't post much here, just mainly on the 5 min. However, here is a support line, I think others should be aware of. The picture is off the daily. It doesn't show up as well on my 4 hr chart right now.
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  • #18,759
  • Edited 8:34pm Feb 16, 2009 7:00pm | Edited 8:34pm
Quoting Morelands
I don't post much here, just mainly on the 5 min. However, here is a support line, I think others should be aware of. The picture is off the daily. It doesn't show up as well on my 4 hr chart right now.
Thank you for your reminder but I think I still can see that trend line in my h4.

That support trend line is extended from Nov 5, 2008 (point A) to Nov 26, 2008 (point B) of D1 as shown in my previous post before (link as below).

Hopefully the others still aware of it too.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...4630&page=1250
  • #18,760
  • Feb 16, 2009 11:15pm Feb 16, 2009 11:15pm
Hi, i see that there is a possible downtrend coming up? is it true? so we have just to wait alil bit longer.
There is also News comming up for the Eur at 10'00gmt and for usd at 14'00.
does those news wory you?

Here is my chart.
greetings
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