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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #21,421
  • Feb 13, 2009 5:57pm Feb 13, 2009 5:57pm
Jim,

Great video, thank you very much for taking your time to put this out there for all of us newbies.

T.J.
  • #21,422
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:00pm Feb 13, 2009 6:00pm
when you get to a point where you know whats going to happen when you look at a chart its the same as someone handing you the golden key to the kingdom. it truly is that profound.

problem is most people still cant get out of there own way.

what do i mean by that? (this is not directed at you arcus or anyone in particular its just me taking another oppurtunity to rant)

most traders practice no discipline, no common sense and a complete refusal to understand that this is a business and not a get rich quick endeavor. its yippee and yahooo and vegas time baby!!!

those of you starting out on daytrading time frames with real money will find out the hard way just like i did. when you fail there will be no one to blame but you.

food for thought from someone that has found himself in the fetal position more than once after dropping a boatload of money due to flat out being a moron.

to this day when i think about those times i want a shot of whiskey or something.

its that damn painful.

it cost me a lot. a lot more than just money.

jim




Quoting arcus
Thanks Jim. Really appreciate it. God bless you, you're so helpful. Though I'm still not good at this stuff and hopefully by the end of this year (my target), but whenever I look at chart now, it seems much clearer what to expect. Thanks again!
  • #21,423
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:15pm Feb 13, 2009 6:15pm
I hate when the waters feel like "broke". lol

You got to love the way Jim teaches. Clear, simple and strong.

Thanks Jim. Great excerpt.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #21,424
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:19pm Feb 13, 2009 6:19pm
Quoting james16
when you get to a point where you know whats going to happen when you look at a chart its the same as someone handing you the golden key to the kingdom. it truly is that profound.

problem is most people still cant get out of there own way.

what do i mean by that? (this is not directed at you arcus or anyone in particular its just me taking another oppurtunity to rant)

most traders practice no discipline, no common sense and a complete refusal to understand that this is a business and not a get rich quick endeavor. its yippee and yahooo and...

Hi James,
Again, many thanks for all you've done, especially when you started this thread, and followed through on your vision for what this thread could be. Then starting the PF and all the countless hours/days/weeks/etc... getting it up and running and then switching websites.

I am working diligently on learning PA, going through this thread. Right now, I am putting my full energy into this. But I haven't looked into the Guest section of PF yet... Do you ever pull things off of the Guest section? Meaning, should I instead work to catch up on that instead of this thread? (since this thread will always be here ).

I expect to be up to date on this thread by 3/6 (on 11500 now).

Thanks again. You have already been an inspiration in the handful of weeks I've known you.

Happy weekend too!

Josh
  • #21,425
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:27pm Feb 13, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting Jduester
Hi James,
Again, many thanks for all you've done, especially when you started this thread, and followed through on your vision for what this thread could be. Then starting the PF and all the countless hours/days/weeks/etc... getting it up and running and then switching websites....
The guest section is largely videos, really handy when your eyes are screwed by reading text all day

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #21,426
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:29pm Feb 13, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Yes, but not on this trade (I have tight stop to lock in profit [already triggered]. I'm trying to recover from a bit of a draw down and want to get back to break even on the account. This move helped a ton, that is for sure. Otherwise, I would let the pips swing. I did ride out the GBP/CHF a while back on the big move, so I have stomached the 300+ pip swings and I'd do it again.
Just as a side note, trying to recover to BE is great, just don't chase your losses. Wait for the wins to come in their own time. As someone who bets for a living, I can tell you the best thing to do after a bad run is take a couple of days of and a few big deep breaths,

Max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #21,427
  • Feb 13, 2009 7:47pm Feb 13, 2009 7:47pm
Quoting james16
Been busy this week and havnt been here much but i see everything is going well.

I just posted a 30 minute excerpt from the 2/05/09 webinar for all of you on the guest side.

I try to put stuff in those guest videos that can really help you with the basics and the mental side of this business.

i think many of you will enjoy it,

jim
Thanks so much for posting another guest video!! It's incredibly helpful to see a video along with the charts posted here.
  • #21,428
  • Feb 13, 2009 9:54pm Feb 13, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting james16
when you get to a point where you know whats going to happen when you look at a chart its the same as someone handing you the golden key to the kingdom. it truly is that profound.

problem is most people still cant get out of there own way.

what do i mean by that? (this is not directed at you arcus or anyone in particular its just me taking another oppurtunity to rant)

most traders practice no discipline, no common sense and a complete refusal to understand that this is a business and not a get rich quick endeavor. its yippee and yahooo and...
I'm rarely post my thought/insight here Jim, bcoz I'ts already been done by you and the great/kind hearted friends of yours (there are many and I bet u must be proud of them) in this thread. What you stated in this and all your previous post is very, very, very true (at least to me).

I blown 3 of my live acc, before I found your thread. It has been 8month's now and I'm around pg960 (kinda slow I'm). And you know what these pg 1-960 done to me? 6 months profits in a row! It's damn simple.

What else I can say to thank u Jim and all your good friends in here who help me to push my trading standard to this level? and all of this is free!

"GOD BLESS YOU ALL" is the only one that I can think right now.

Those newbie, pls study this from page 1, I bet you'll never regret .

sincerely
Tokwan
Go figure.. Simplicity work
  • #21,429
  • Edited 11:44pm Feb 13, 2009 10:04pm | Edited 11:44pm
To borrow a page from the book of Jduester, I would like to post my analysis of USD/CHF in an attempt to teach others while getting feedback from some of the experienced traders.

My first instinct was to go short at 1.1492 (10 pips below the low of the current candle) for the following reasons:

- Price has failed to close above 1.17 for the past four weeks.
- I think I see some bearish divergence (if I am not mistaken).
- There are three consecutive candles with long wicks and small bodies (a sign of indecision and possible reversal).

After using knowledge I have gained in this thread, I found the following reasons to stay out of the trade:

- The current candle has not closed yet on my feed.
- The nose of the current candle does not look long enough to make a good pinbar.
- The current candle appears to be in too much traffic (highlighted in a silver box on my chart).

This does not look like an A trade to me, so I think will resist the temptation. My current plan is to wait for the price to break below 1.15 and try to find some price action on the daily chart if the price comes back towards 1.15. Please tell me what you think.

For a long time I have thought of myself as a patient individual who does not easily give in to fear or greed. After trading forex for a few months it seems almost as if I developed a gambler's personality that was greedy, scared and had no patience. I lost a lot of money in the process, but luckily did not blow my account. Thanks to this thread I am starting to notice the beginings of some major changes in my trading personality, but I still have a long way to go.
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  • #21,430
  • Edited 11:03pm Feb 13, 2009 10:49pm | Edited 11:03pm
Quoting PipGator
To borrow a page from the book of Jduester, I would like to post my analysis of USD/CHF in an attempt to teach others while getting feedback from some of the experienced traders.

My first instinct was to go short at 1.1492 (10 pips below the low of the current candle) for the following reasons:

- Price has failed to close above 1.17 for the past four weeks.
- I think I see some bearish divergence (if I am not mistaken).
- There are three consecutive candles with long wicks and small bodies (a sign of indecision and possible reversal).

After...
I like your instincts to go short below 1.1500. If this week's neutral candle had a longer wick, we're talking now it's a Pin Bar. (as you have mentioned) And a break below two distinct PPZ levels (1.1600 & 1.1500) would work for me nicely.

Looking for PA set ups on the Daily at these levels should prove promsing.
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Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #21,431
  • Feb 13, 2009 11:20pm Feb 13, 2009 11:20pm
Should I place a limit order to sell this pair if price reaches .8936 (10 pips below what I think is a pinbar)?

Pros:

- Price bounced off of a PPZ I drew on my chart.
- Looks like a valid pinbar to me. Price opened and closed below the high of the previous candle. My eye tells me the wick is long enough. Please correct me if it does not look like a valid pin to you.
- Price bounced off of 38.2 fib I drew on my daily chart from the high of .9517 on Jan 26 to the low of .8634 on Feb 10. I believe that this is what James16 calls confluence. Please let me know if there is something wrong with the fib levels on my chart.

Cons:

- If price goes down as expected, it could make a quick U-turn near the .8928 level. On my feed I have: Feb 2 12:00 low of .8929, Feb 5 8:00 high of .8927, Feb 11 8:00 low of .8928 and Feb 13 12:00 high of .8928. Four bounces within one pip of the same price in less than two weeks. This area is only 8 pips away from the proposed entry.
- When trading opens on Sunday night for those of us living on the East Coast in the USA, price may open with a gap, which would likely invalidate my pinbar.
- THIS IS A FOUR-HOUR CHART AND I AM JUST A ROOKIE! One of the most important lessons (if not the most important lesson) from this thread is that rookies like myself should trade on a demo account using higher time frames like the daily and weekly charts.

Sit this one out, Rookie! Don't take the trade.

I am still struggling with drawing PPZs and have some questions pertaining to the attached chart:

Do the experienced traders here follow certain discrete parameters for length and width of PPZs on particular time frames? If so, what are your rules of thumb?

It seems to me that a PPZ should be larger on larger time frames.

The PPZ I drew with a blue rectangle on my chart seems too big to me. I understand the basic concepts of finding price regions of support/resistance where price flips and using round numbers, but I am having trouble determining where the PPZ begins and where it ends. The extrememes of my PPZ are the candles highlighted in orange. It begins with the low from Feb 2 20:00 of .8986 and it ends with the low from Feb 12 00:00 of .8955. This PPZ is 31 pips wide and 43 candles long.

Where would you draw PPZs on this chart and why does your PPZ have its specific length and width?
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  • #21,432
  • Edited 8:57pm Feb 14, 2009 12:14am | Edited 8:57pm
Quoting PipGator
Should I place a limit order to sell this pair if price reaches .8936 (10 pips below what I think is a pinbar)?

Pros:

- Price bounced off of a PPZ I drew on my chart.
- Looks like a valid pinbar to me. Price opened and closed below the high of the previous candle. My eye tells me the wick is long enough. Please correct me if it does not look like a valid pin to you.
- Price bounced off of 38.2 fib I drew on my daily chart from the high of .9517 on Jan 26 to the low of .8634 on Feb 10. I believe that this is what James16 calls confluence. Please...
Hey Gator.

I was wonder why you jumped down to the 4 hour when your Weekly chart analysis was so good. lol

Eur/Gbp:
I believe the Weekly BEOB is still in play here. I made some nice pips on this BEOB break last week you can check my past posts on it. It was a very easy trade.

PPZs level take a little practise but what I do is I start with the weekly chart (and even the monthly) and look where Price has flipped or where Highs and Lows meet. Then I go to the Daily chart and fine tune them near Round Numbers. These are not precise levels that's why their called zones. So any PA setups around these levels could present a high probability PA trade.
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #21,433
  • Feb 14, 2009 10:42am Feb 14, 2009 10:42am
Thank You Very Much James!
  • #21,434
  • Feb 14, 2009 11:26am Feb 14, 2009 11:26am
Quoting rustyjeff

right now my cad trade is looking a litle doubtful. the initial support didnt hold as resistantce. so now my stop is set to just above the 61 fib level.
if it goes back lower, yipee... If not the market will take me out.
It doesnt matter either way.
well the trade survived, now if the small ppz holds on sunday night i will move the stop to just above it if the immediate lows are tested & broken.
the only main concern is there is a weekly buob, but it is in traffic & doesnt have a good look to it. put it this way, its not something i would give any weight too or trade as is.
the targets lower are marked & as this is against the main trend of US dollar bullish i will trail stops close behind each one.
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  • #21,435
  • Feb 14, 2009 11:34am Feb 14, 2009 11:34am
Quoting james16
Been busy this week and havnt been here much but i see everything is going well.

I just posted a 30 minute excerpt from the 2/05/09 webinar for all of you on the guest side.

I try to put stuff in those guest videos that can really help you with the basics and the mental side of this business.

i think many of you will enjoy it,

jim
Great...!!! thanks jim, I'll go for it right now....
  • #21,436
  • Feb 14, 2009 11:41am Feb 14, 2009 11:41am
Quoting rustyjeff
well the trade survived, now if the small ppz holds on sunday night i will move the stop to just above it if the immediate lows are tested & broken.
the only main concern is there is a weekly buob, but it is in traffic & doesnt have a good look to it. put it this way, its not something i would give any weight too or trade as is.
the targets lower are marked & as this is against the main trend of US dollar bullish i will trail stops close behind each one.
Nice Jeff...

I am looking at the 1.21 level sometime during the week,

Glad you were able to survive that last retest to the 1.247...

Regards,
Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #21,437
  • Feb 14, 2009 12:16pm Feb 14, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting PipGator
For a long time I have thought of myself as a patient individual who does not easily give in to fear or greed. After trading forex for a few months it seems almost as if I developed a gambler's personality that was greedy, scared and had no patience. I lost a lot of money in the process, but luckily did not blow my account. Thanks to this thread I am starting to notice the beginings of some major changes in my trading personality, but I still have a long way to go.
I enjoyed reading your post Pip. Forex will bring out the best and worst in our personalities. If you noticed after only a few months some of your flaws you are WAY ahead of the game. You get traders who let their egos get in front of them for years and years, account after account before just giving up. Good to recognize this and take a hold of it early on, will serve you well.

Best
Mike
  • #21,438
  • Feb 14, 2009 1:14pm Feb 14, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting jarroo
I hate when the waters feel like "broke". lol

You got to love the way Jim teaches. Clear, simple and strong.

Thanks Jim. Great excerpt.

Jim
i dont see you any more why?????????come back!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #21,439
  • Feb 14, 2009 4:59pm Feb 14, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting avi
i dont see you any more why?????????come back!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mom . . is that you ?

lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #21,440
  • Feb 14, 2009 6:58pm Feb 14, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting jarroo
Understandable. But remember if your trade is at break even or locked in for some pips, your not losing anything. The potential for a large gain with no risk exists. When you remove it, it does not exist. (I'm not explaining this right)

One step at a time LVG, nice trade bro.

Jim
Your explanation is sound and I agree, but here is a hypothetical... Say you have 10,000 dollar account and you draw down to 8500. You enter a trade and you are back up to 9500. For me, I'd put a tight stop to make sure I lock in that profit as I try to get the account back to 10K. I understand I'm giving up the chance at having the trade go higher (maybe say go to 11k - 12k, etc, etc). but at least the account is closer to being out of draw down thean staying at 8500...

I don't know if that is the best way to do it or not, but that is how I'd do it. Maybe as time goes on and I learn more I'll have another approach.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
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