Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Wow that's awesome!
Since you're responding to our greedy requests a thread of your own would be the best!...but like you said previously it would take up a lot of your time...but us greedy one's would lap up your fib nourishment happily!

We'll get there..But getting acquainted with these simple principles is the most important thing. Once you have the simple stuff down we can learn from there and build up.

Here is what I am watching right now. Which way will she break? This happens to also be an inside bar on the 30 and 1h. All this stuff inter-relates.

Hi Scotty,

Glad to see this thread back up and running. Your doing some good work here, keep it up!

I hope to join in along the way as I'm a big fan of using fibs like this!

Regards,

Dan

Alright..The stimulus is even closer to passing...I am going to wait next week to take any more positions. Do you think it is an accident something like this becomes official or not when all markets are closed?

I'm not trading this, but for learnings sake, this is yet another example of what we are looking for in a simple fib trade. We have a low break and with that we wait for retracement. In an ideal situation we would enter at the inner 38, 50, or 61. Price won't always give you a nice retrace, somtimes it will go straight to the target. I let those ones go. If you get in to early, your risk to reward is simply unfavorable. The retrace improves this for us.

I love how you don't pretend Scotty B, "...somtimes it will go straight to the target. I let those ones go."

When we trade we cannot afford to pretend or play around. That means not trading sometimes. All who can appriciate that, is already on their way to being good traders, no matter what your system is. Don't get ansy and start chasing trades. Let them come to you and you can put a leash around their neck. The key is to be in control of the trade, and not the other way around. Sometimes your stop will get hit. Oh well, on to the next one. Always maintain this and you cannot loose.

Scotty

Well that's an interesting turn of events... Good stuff Scotty, I personally believe in not trading just for the sake of trading. This allows me to make better trades since I know the market is not going to vanish and better trades will come...

Thnx again, Scotty !!

The simplicity of concepts you made available belies some profound truths about the market flow, it seems to me ..

Hey Bull,

The original creator of this thread (Skunny), was the one who provided the raw material for me to work with. What I've presented in the last couple of days is a very primitive adaptation of what Skunny originally taught. Skunny never taught a system in this thread, he showed a few things but was always careful not to just give things away. He did this to encourage individual growth and learning. I agree with him in that idea. You can do a whole lot with fibs, just experiment a little bit.
Because nothing explicit was ever taught in this thread, I want to be careful not to hijack this. I have no idea if skunny plans on participating here again. So in the mean time, I'll be glad to keep showing the basics to help get any of you who really want to learn fibs up on your feet. Learning to trade can be done, it just takes time. Don't settle for what I've presented here. Dig your heels in and start studying this stuff. You will be your best resource.

Scotty B

I just put some charts together that illustrate the nature of how fibs expand. This property of fibs is under girded by .618. .618 or the golden mean, is where all fib theory flows out of. All the ratios we use in our fibs come from .618 in some form or fashion except the 50% level. The last chart I posted explains where the T1 comes from in practice. The T1 is the target we use most commonly to trade to and it has much to do with the physics of price movement, more so than it's relation to .618. I am not going to give away the implication of what I have presented, but those of you who are willing to study this stuff can figure it out. To get you pointed in the right direction though, I want you to start fibbing price, and then asking what that fib used to look like.

Have a great day everyone,

Scotty B

On the 15min we got an inside bar to open the week. We had a break long and a retrace. Just what we need to trade. Often time on the 15min, we will end up with an inside bar as out fresh S/R. We'll see how this turns out.

Scotty B

Thats alright...On to the hour chart.

Target reached..Now we zoom out to the bigger picture on the hour chart. If we get another retracement we have a good fib to trade,otherwise we wait for a new setup on the 15.

A look at the daily shot using this simple fib method shows an activated short cycle. Because this fib has retraced over the last couple weeks, I'd say we will see our target this week. This would put us down around 1.2550
To trade this fib, I'd wait for a retrace of a smaller fib on a smaller timeframe, namely the one I just posted. We will wait for possible retracement on our hourly fib, and use PA to confirm an entry. We will then carry the trade to the daily target. I'll post again when this trade develops a little more. Stay tuned.

Scotty B

I am seeing a confused market at the moment. After the news friday night, I would expect to see violent price movement. I have not changed my market perspective from short to long, but I am seeing early signs of retracement. There are a few fibs that price could retrace into, which one it will be is anyone's guess. I will let price action be my guide.

Obama's super magic eraser!
"Whats that Carl, you say it didn't work the first time?..Ah heck print some more lets give er another go..This oughta do it, I'm Obama for cryin out loud!"

Wow..This thread is beginning to feel like a private trade journal..Oh well!
Price was finally able to break upwards and gave us a Pinocchio bar on the 1hr and went up to bounce off of the 23.6 of our newest fib. In my humble opinion I think the retrace has more room to go up. It is clear at this point that the market is having a tough time moving lower. We've been going relatively sideways for almost two weeks now. If you go back on your chart to the last time we saw this kind of sideways movement it led up to that historic spike we saw worth a couple thousand pips. I am not saying that will happen again, but with the size of the so called stimulus and the watering down of the USD, some sort of strong retrace would not surprise me. We are living through some very dramatic times right now economically speaking, and we are still right in the middle of this crisis. Anything could happen. I'll just say that 1.2980 would not be a hard place for this thing to reach or better. We have not had a 38.2% retracement yet for the big move since that historic spike I spoke of. If this thing were to do such a retrace we are looking at 1.3500.
Remember though, my overall bias is short. If you've read my blog then you know I am calling for ~1.2300. As I said earlier, I'll let fibs be my map and price action my guide.

Scotty, don't get discouraged with us lurkers. I follow you closely and you have helped me enormously. Before you started posting again I was doing pretty much the same kind of analysis as you, based on Skunny's method. Please keep up the good work.
Mike