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The anwser to that question "The secret of not losing anything"

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 8, 2009 11:55am Feb 8, 2009 11:55am
If you make profit close the market and come out not u remaining there to see if it will go more for your favor thereby it will start bouncing against you.

so even one dollar is profit.

stop being greedy.
  • #2
  • Feb 8, 2009 12:16pm Feb 8, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting chudex
If you make profit close the market and come out not u remaining there to see if it will go more for your favor thereby it will start bouncing against you.

so even one dollar is profit.

stop being greedy.
This is the dumbest thing I have ever read, next to buying and selling at the same time. It will guarantee you will lose every good opportunity. So, your risk will ALWAYS be greater than your reward. This is completely idiotic.
  • #3
  • Feb 8, 2009 12:20pm Feb 8, 2009 12:20pm
and when you have a trade go against you, then what do you do? never close it until it turns profitable?

bad advice, everyone.
  • #4
  • Feb 8, 2009 5:47pm Feb 8, 2009 5:47pm
What is the answer to how to trade and never lose? simple, hold 1 small position using a daily or weekly chart to choose entry in the direction of the current trend, and have a very large account that could handle 1000 pips or more negitive while you wait for the market to make your trade profitable and worth your time. Effective? yes. Practicle? probably not.

There is another more practicle method which is just as effective and will also require a very large account, choose a position and a profit goal for the trade then open a position anywhere, yes anywhere will work; however, a reason to choose the entry will probably let you complete the trade faster. Once the position is open lets say you go long on euro and it's not going so well open another position long when you are down 20 pips and continue to open new positions every time the market moves against you 20 more pips, and every time you open a new position you update your limit orders to get you to your goal for the day every time you open another position this point will be lower and lower and when the market retraces and hits that point all positions are closed and you call it a day. This would require a very large account but if used with a decent entry strategy it will proove very profitable and will never lose. It could probable be done with $1000 in a fixed spread micro account using a new 4hr high or low as the entry.
  • #5
  • Feb 8, 2009 6:00pm Feb 8, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting jaws810
What is the answer to how to trade and never lose? simple, hold 1 small position using a daily or weekly chart to choose entry in the direction of the current trend, and have a very large account that could handle 1000 pips or more negitive while you wait for the market to make your trade profitable and worth your time. Effective? yes. Practicle? probably not.

There is another more practicle method which is just as effective and will also require a very large account, choose a position and a profit goal for the trade then open a position anywhere,...
Really? Loss Averaging? Not a good idea in a speculation mode. Maybe it would be ok for investing in stocks long term and use the idea that inflation will eventually carry the stock higher. But not in trading and certainly not in speculating, IMO. Also, the risk to reward is still bad. Draw down is still a loss, to equity.
  • #6
  • Feb 9, 2009 9:56am Feb 9, 2009 9:56am
There are at least three approaches that are guaranteed to eventually lose.

1. Not using stoplosses, or setting SL very much wider from entry than TP. See post #1. The old maxim "nobody ever went broke by taking a profit" is arguably the most destructive myth in trading.

2. Averaging down without limit. See post #4.

3. Progressive position sizing systems (e.g. Martingale).

Many vended EAs use variations and/or combinations of these. They are all ultimately all very similar in concept, allowing loss(es) to grow bigger and bigger on the assumption that a favorable outcome must eventually occur, and that it will occur before an adverse trend long enough to cause ruin does. But with anything less than infinite capitalization, ruin is eventually inevitable.
  • #7
  • Edited 11:44am Feb 9, 2009 11:26am | Edited 11:44am
It seems you all are talking about taking one position after another for the same reason and thus direction. I'm playing with this in demo, using the idea of loss averaging or make-up trades to correct trade blunders. It seems easier to do this when you're trading for very few pips than to accept a stop loss that's even smaller or that's so wide it'll remove a half dozen trades' worth of profit.

I tried using an extra trade in place of a stop loss, for a while. I'd enter one trade and if the market went my way, fine, I exited. If the market went against the trade, then I'd enter another trade in the opposite direction when the market looked like it'd turn. The loss stopped in the balance and I stood a good chance of recouping my losses at least somewhat.
After I did it a little while, though, I began to get stuck with 1, 2 or more reasons and their trades I had to decide upon, and the first trade was difficult enough. It was easier realizing my mess and closing them all, than sticking with one trade and being stubborn about closing it; however, both lost big enough.
So now I'm using an extra-trade version of a stop loss when I made an error in judgement and market conditions are favorable, such as in a probable channel. Doing one trade after another tracing a path going amidst the same market prices is about the same idea. Otherwise, I'm just staying away from the market or doing one isolated trade in a trend or when I'm unsure about the next chart area's form.
  • #8
  • Feb 9, 2009 2:04pm Feb 9, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting hanover
There are at least three approaches that are guaranteed to eventually lose.

1. Not using stoplosses, or setting SL very much wider from entry than TP. See post #1. The old maxim "nobody ever went broke by taking a profit" is arguably the most destructive myth in trading.

2. Averaging down without limit. See post #4.

3. Progressive position sizing systems (e.g. Martingale).

Many vended EAs use variations and/or combinations of these. They are all ultimately all very similar in concept, allowing loss(es) to grow bigger and bigger on the assumption...
if thats the case how do you explain the success of grid trading like for instance naningbob's EA and we know he's been successful with it.
  • #9
  • Feb 9, 2009 9:01pm Feb 9, 2009 9:01pm
Quoting fugly
if thats the case how do you explain the success of grid trading like for instance naningbob's EA and we know he's been successful with it.
I haven't studied Nanningbob's method, so I'm restricted to general comment about grid methods and MM.

A method can only succeed in the long term if its entries and exits somehow deliver positive expectancy (greater return than drawdown). A grid system can potentially achieve this, but if and only if it can be shown statistically that the further price moves away from the original entry point, the greater the probability of its retracing far enough, on balance, so that the 'averaged' exit point(s) deliver profit beyond costs (spread etc).

As I have demonstrated elsewhere (see this post, which contains links to relevant spreadsheets), MM has no bearing on expectancy. Using any kind of progressive sizing method (e.g. Martingale) merely increases risk of ruin without altering expectancy.

Prudent risk management spreads risk over a number of trades, to preserve capital against any single unexpected mishap (apart from an unusally lengthy adverse price move, the possibility of 'one-offs' like a price spike caused by a terrorist attack; inability to close a trade due to computer/internet outage; etc). Conversely, any system that allows unlimited risk on any one trade is potentially always only one loss away from ruin. That one 'unexpected' trade might occur 5 days from now, or 50 years from now. In my view that is akin to playing Russian roulette.
  • #10
  • Feb 9, 2009 9:20pm Feb 9, 2009 9:20pm
The secret of not losing anything is simple. Don't trade. The caveat is that you will gain nothing. But at least, you now have solved the "secret" of not losing anything.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #11
  • Feb 9, 2009 10:53pm Feb 9, 2009 10:53pm
Quoting Jay Walker
The secret of not losing anything is simple. Don't trade. The caveat is that you will gain nothing. But at least, you now have solved the "secret" of not losing anything.
Yes, it's the ultimate proof that both return and risk are proportional to position size.
  • #12
  • Feb 13, 2009 10:08pm Feb 13, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting hanover
There are at least three approaches that are guaranteed to eventually lose.

1. Not using stoplosses, or setting SL very much wider from entry than TP. See post #1. The old maxim "nobody ever went broke by taking a profit" is arguably the most destructive myth in trading.

2. Averaging down without limit. See post #4.

3. Progressive position sizing systems (e.g. Martingale).

Many vended EAs use variations and/or combinations of these. They are all ultimately all very similar in concept, allowing loss(es) to grow bigger and bigger on the...

Actually there is a secret of not losing anything..
but it always come with initial risk...but it can be minimum risk...

anyway forex or anything else is always come with some risk,right...?

OK, the secret is after you have double up your capital, just withdraw the capital and play with house money. After that you will have nothing to lose...


as for martingale, it works really but with some strategy of course, in year 2008, start with deposit USD300 in Jan, get back the capital in Feb. Grows the account with house money till it stop in August. from 300 to 5000.
Martingale will eventually find its stop but it worth the risk with the potential returns.

Just my 2 cents
  • #13
  • Feb 14, 2009 2:06am Feb 14, 2009 2:06am
Quoting akukaya
OK, the secret is after you have double up your capital, just withdraw the capital and play with house money. After that you will have nothing to lose...
If you work a job and receive your salary, do you consider it "house money"? I believe that any money I make trading is "my money" once the trade is closed.
  • #14
  • Feb 14, 2009 3:23am Feb 14, 2009 3:23am
Quoting Dopey
If you work a job and receive your salary, do you consider it "house money"? I believe that any money I make trading is "my money" once the trade is closed.
I mean house money is considered after you get back your initial capital.

The initial capital need to come from your money(from your job salary or other ways) and that is the one you initial risk at.

just my opinion, if you dont wanna risk anything, then no trades at all is the real answer.
  • #15
  • Feb 14, 2009 3:59am Feb 14, 2009 3:59am
Quoting akukaya
I mean house money is considered after you get back your initial capital.
Yes, I understand what you referred to as "house money". I was throwing out the idea as to whether or not one should think of money one has earned as someone else's money.
  • #16
  • Feb 14, 2009 4:02am Feb 14, 2009 4:02am
The secret of not losing anything is: Don't trade.
  • #17
  • Feb 14, 2009 8:07am Feb 14, 2009 8:07am
Quoting Dopey
Yes, I understand what you referred to as "house money". I was throwing out the idea as to whether or not one should think of money one has earned as someone else's money.
Agreed that once the money is credited to my account it is now MY money, not the 'houses' and therefore is now part of MY capital. I believe it to be dangerous to think of it as 'house money' because this then implies one can be reckless with it and take risks they normally would not.
Equally dangerous is the idea that the house now owes you what you have lost. Again this leads to risks you would not normally take.
There is a lot of wisdom in Bemac's signature:
I may not Always be right but I AM ALWAYS IN CHARGE. At least, of My Own Coin.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #18
  • Feb 14, 2009 9:03am Feb 14, 2009 9:03am
Quoting mrgreen
Agreed that once the money is credited to my account it is now MY money, not the 'houses' and therefore is now part of MY capital. I believe it to be dangerous to think of it as 'house money' because this then implies one can be reckless with it and take risks they normally would not.
Equally dangerous is the idea that the house now owes you what you have lost. Again this leads to risks you would not normally take.
There is a lot of wisdom in Bemac's signature:
[size=1][color=red][color=seagreen]I may not Always be right but I AM ALWAYS IN CHARGE....
as long as the initial capital is save, at least I have a little peace in mind.
The house money thinking is good psycologically(at least for me) depending on one's system. My system shows the risk is always the same either initial or with house money thinking. Good thing is when it already grows big, it overcome the risk because even when the system stop working, it will not eat all the house money.
  • #19
  • Feb 14, 2009 2:22pm Feb 14, 2009 2:22pm
we have a fundamental difference on this. for me, every dollar made beyond my initial capital level is "house money." i call it that. it is because i personally view trading as gambling. and if we were gambling in vegas, we'd call it house money. some gamblers in vegas will be more aggressive with their house money, and it is a matter of taste and personal opinion.

Quoting mrgreen
Agreed that once the money is credited to my account it is now MY money, not the 'houses' and therefore is now part of MY capital. I believe it to be dangerous to think of it as 'house money' because this then implies one can be reckless with it and take risks they normally would not.
Equally dangerous is the idea that the house now owes you what you have lost. Again this leads to risks you would not normally take.
There is a lot of wisdom in Bemac's signature:
[size=1][color=red][color=seagreen]I may not Always be right but I AM ALWAYS IN CHARGE....
  • #20
  • Feb 14, 2009 3:17pm Feb 14, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting Tjpld
The secret of not losing anything is: Don't trade.
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