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Psiholog's EUR/USD trading style

  • #221
  • Feb 12, 2009 10:06pm Feb 12, 2009 10:06pm
Quoting dstryr
Im going to try again at 2940 or so...daily high and 100% retracement from the move down.
I took it at 41...stop at entry now.
Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #222
  • Feb 13, 2009 8:26am Feb 13, 2009 8:26am
Quoting dstryr
I took it at 41...stop at entry now.
that was a perfect entry! I hope you're still in it
  • #223
  • Edited 12:08pm Feb 13, 2009 11:57am | Edited 12:08pm
my only trade this friday morning as i woke up just a short time ago. this most recent uptrend was just broken to the downside. that was not the reason for entry though as channels this entire week have been, not so useful. instead horizontal supports/resistances was what needed to be carefully watched which brings me to my reason of entry. a double top on the 5min charts which is an M seems to have formed off the 1.2915 level , a level which has acted as strong support/resistance all week. if 1.2870 goes...we can see 1.2820 or so again this morning. Still, its friday therefore im only risking half a position size on this trade.

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Edit:..so much for that double top...man this week has been insane...good thing my entry was where the wall gets retest on breakout...the only thing that may keep this trade profitable..if breakout wall does not hold...bye bye 50 pips possibly
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #224
  • Feb 13, 2009 12:19pm Feb 13, 2009 12:19pm
question for those who use indicators. this is the pa of the last 2 weeks. is there any indicator or method that functions out there for this kind of pa? My indicator (me and my gut instinct) has functioned terribly even though im still in the positive for this week as well.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #225
  • Feb 13, 2009 12:21pm Feb 13, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting psiholog
...the 1.2915 level , a level which has acted as strong support/resistance all week....

..if breakout wall does not hold...bye bye 50 pips possibly
I made an entry on the touch of the upper channel wall. I already took 3/4 profit at 40-50 pips (progressively) and with SL at BE I have no Friday worries. I hope yours is safe.
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  • #226
  • Feb 13, 2009 12:29pm Feb 13, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting psiholog
question for those who use indicators. this is the pa of the last 2 weeks. is there any indicator or method that functions out there for this kind of pa? My indicator (me and my gut instinct) has functioned terribly even though im still in the positive for this week as well.

Attachment
Psi, I would suggest two things:
1. On the H1, try the 7ema and 21ema. When 7 crosses 21, good for trend and 100 or more PIPs, although remember nothing is certain.

2. Go try out Cobra's THV system. Here is the thread - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=127271.

We trade this on shorter timeframes than you (M1, M5, M15), but there is nothing to say that it would not work on longer either. We just haven't tested it at those levels. It's a greatly enhanced version of Ichimoku.

With your knowledge and appetite for trading, I bet you could make a ton of PIPs with THV. Our mutual friend Cobra, as you probably know, is the mastermind behind THV.

Good trading to you. Have a nice weekend all.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #227
  • Feb 13, 2009 12:34pm Feb 13, 2009 12:34pm
you know i wont do that ed, my method works for me in general and am pleased with it. let me ask you this though, have you been profitable the past 2 weeks using those 2? All im wondering is if other "systems" have been as difficult to trade as my method these past 2 weeks with all these false spikes up and down and what should become resistance doesnt and what should become support doesnt. 150 pips down in one hour, 150 pips back up in the next 2 hours. then 75 pips down 4 hours later and followed by 120+ up in the next hour or two. I guess I just want to know if its been as hard for others as its been for me haha.


Edit: take this last trade for example. normally it would work out beautifully. when it comes to channels and pa flowing freely my win/loss ratio for trades is around 75-80%. In other words i win 3 and i lose 1. (in the past the problem was my 3 wins would equal 1 loss but not anymore haha). Now, no technical analysis from my point of view gets respected except for strong resistances/supports. note that now were stuck between 1.2915 and 1.2870 with my trade right in the middle of that range. only a break up would take me out but as today is friday, a break up would imply were going to retest the 1.3000 level in the last few hours. My trade, as bad as it may be, its still ok i guess but the idea is the technicals dont apply...i guess my fundamentals are too limited to understand this pa
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #228
  • Feb 13, 2009 12:47pm Feb 13, 2009 12:47pm
Quoting psiholog
.... is there any indicator or method that functions out there for this kind of pa? ....
I use THV and it does fine, but not so much trading a 1 HR chart. Usually you identify the trend on a M30 or M15 basis, then you get a signal on the M5 to correlate, then make an entry on M1. It is basically scalping, depending on whose definition of scalping you use. Even so, sometime you can get runs of 70+ pips with 20-30 being ordinary. It uses HA candles (I am still getting used to them) and an oscillator called Trix (triple exponential average), as well as a couple more trend indicators. The look and feel is pretty simple compared to other cluttered charts you may have seen posted around before. Cobra has done great with it, creating a set of rules that makes it easy for a newbie. With your intuitive sense and experience, I would guess you would do very well with it. The thread provides great support (especially Doblece and Cobra) and we are getting rave reviews. Cobra's own results have been phenomenal - of course he is a very experienced trader (and he scalps the M1 only ). Try it on demo sometime. I think you have MT4 so it would be easy to incorporate. You could still use your method but this would be a way to get extra pips in between.
  • #229
  • Feb 13, 2009 12:55pm Feb 13, 2009 12:55pm
I closed all my shorts. I only see longs here...

look how price action after being over the yellow channel... is being supported by it... many times... it is like everybody knows that it is going up. but it wants to retest again and again the channel.. until only the ones with enough patience win.
we have support from the yellow channel. support from the blue line... and nothing above as resistance... it has to go up...

next week... target at 1.3177 at least... which is first fib retracement
once we hit the first fib... we can short again to try to break the blue support.

Have a nice weekend !
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  • #230
  • Feb 13, 2009 12:58pm Feb 13, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting psiholog
....have you been profitable the past 2 weeks using those 2?

.... I guess I just want to know if its been as hard for others as its been for me haha.

....no technical analysis from my point of view gets respected except for strong resistances/supports. ....
I saw your post to Ed after I had posted mine. I can't answer for him but I myself have been profitable trading THV the last 2 weeks. I used to use a 3MA-8MA cross with stochastics for a trading strategy and that worked too. And it HAS been harder for me, ever since Christmas break, to make as much pips. But THV has helped me through, as long as I keep my patience. No indicators can tell you when to trade, with profitable accuracy. You have to incorporate the other thing you know, like resistances and supports (they are crucial, even in THV), and trendlines.

The bottom line is even strong resistances and supports get broken eventually, and fundamentals don't always work as they logically should. But in between all that is trend, and if you catch the trend wave early enough, it is pretty safe surfing.
  • #231
  • Feb 13, 2009 1:02pm Feb 13, 2009 1:02pm
Quoting TradeWell
. Even so, sometime you can get runs of 70+ pips with 20-30 being ordinary.
Thank you for pointing that out. The majority of my trades these last 2 weeks have been at least that in the profit at first, even the ones that turned into losers. I realize now what i did wrong. I expected a continuation south too much and was too willing to let positions run with that expectation in mind. In a sense i did not stick to my strategy where the first sign of doubt on a profitable trade comes, get out. This last one i did the exact same thing, i knew 1.2870 would be support and while an M had the potential to develop as well as a break of the last uptrend, the support was too strong and i should have just taken profit there for 20pips as i was doubtful. To conclude, this is a ranging market where scalping is king and i have not treated it as such....i will do so from now on until 1.3100 or 1.2700 gets broken. until this range is broken...this will be my final post as all key points in my strategy, channels, patterns, horizontal supports/resistances dont develop as they should. instead...gut feeling and candlestick patterns at the time count only..after all im a momentum trader. good pippin all...i am out.

Sidenote:...i am +35% net profit this month but that is way too low considering my account size...thats why im ...frustrated..anyways be back when were 1.3100+ or 1.2700-
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #232
  • Feb 13, 2009 1:07pm Feb 13, 2009 1:07pm
Quoting emda
I only see longs here...

look how price action after being over the yellow channel... is being supported by it... many times...
True, but sometimes when we see PA go outside of a channel it continues to follow it (in the case down) but on the outside. Nevertheless, that rising blue trendline to me is even more important. A big break is needed to leave the current range. You could be right but I am not sure that there is enough interest to go as high or higher than your projection.
  • #233
  • Feb 13, 2009 1:10pm Feb 13, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting psiholog
Sidenote:...i am +35% net profit this month but that is way too low considering my account size...thats why im ...frustrated..anyways be back when were 1.3100+ or 1.2700-
35% in a month is great. You are in the right path. keep working hard... and do not overleverage to try to speed up the process. How much leverage do you use?

When you trade big account, then you can use less leverage and trading becomes more easy and less stressful. the main reason of many people failing at trading is the lack of capital.
  • #234
  • Feb 13, 2009 1:12pm Feb 13, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting TradeWell
True, but sometimes when we see PA go outside of a channel it continues to follow it (in the case down) but on the outside. Nevertheless, that rising blue trendline to me is even more important. A big break is needed to leave the current range. You could be right but I am not sure that there is enough interest to go as high or higher than your projection.
I know... I think that's because channels are easy to see and when a channel is broken... the market tries to keep going to stop all the ones that tried to trade a break of the channel... That's why I always wait for retest and make of new highs or lows. and then wait for next retracement and enter.
  • #235
  • Feb 13, 2009 1:14pm Feb 13, 2009 1:14pm

"Paulson & Co. said its funds made more than $3 billion for the firm in 2007 by judging that the U.S. housing market and subprime mortgages would collapse. Paulson had previously disclosed short positions in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Barclays Plc and HBOS, the bank now owned by Lloyds."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Glo&refer=home

shit... that's some serious business.. lol... We will be there .. we have time... keep working.... hehe
  • #236
  • Feb 13, 2009 1:21pm Feb 13, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting emda
...When you trade big account, then you can use less leverage and trading becomes more easy and less stressful. the main reason of many people failing at trading is the lack of capital.
I can relate to that. Psi, I also have a small account and it is a long road to build it up. It takes a huge amount of patience to get there. I have never made a withdrawl yet because I want it to grow. When it is large enough, I will do as Emda says. I will be able to be more picky about trades and risk a smaller percentage.
  • #237
  • Feb 13, 2009 1:32pm Feb 13, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting TradeWell
I can relate to that. Psi, I also have a small account and it is a long road to build it up. It takes a huge amount of patience to get there. I have never made a withdrawl yet because I want it to grow. When it is large enough, I will do as Emda says. I will be able to be more picky about trades and risk a smaller percentage.
just to give you an idea of how hard it is for me to build my portfolio. using proper mm, i am +510 pips this month and that is only 35% increase for the month. while i say this month has been terrible for me, that is impressive to most. so yea...like emda says...small starting equity equates to a long difficult process. just to show how high i set my standards knowing what im capable of...i should have been +1000pips by now (100pips on average daily goal)....which would have equated to... 100% gain so far for the month. the market didnt want to cooperate though =/

Sidenote:house passes final stimulus plan, ZERO republicans voted for it...go figure...so much for unity
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #238
  • Feb 13, 2009 2:52pm Feb 13, 2009 2:52pm
Have a great weekend!

Thanks psi for doing this thread. It has definitely helped me gain extra pips so far and the risk has been comfortable.
  • #239
  • Feb 13, 2009 3:05pm Feb 13, 2009 3:05pm
Great Thread PSI. Took me all afternoon to read it, but well worth it.

Look forward to many more insights.

'Till next week.
Cheers.
  • #240
  • Feb 15, 2009 6:49pm Feb 15, 2009 6:49pm
[quote=psiholog;2538402]you know i wont do that ed, my method works for me in general and am pleased with it. let me ask you this though, have you been profitable the past 2 weeks using those 2? All im wondering is if other "systems" have been as difficult to trade as my method these past 2 weeks with all these false spikes up and down and what should become resistance doesnt and what should become support doesnt. 150 pips down in one hour, 150 pips back up in the next 2 hours. then 75 pips down 4 hours later and followed by 120+ up in the next hour or two. I guess I just want to know if its been as hard for others as its been for me haha.

Psiholog, sorry to be late replying. I had already signed off for the day, and am just now getting online for the week. To answer your question, for several weeks now, I have increased my account nearly 300 PIPs per week. For a while, I was hitting 80-100 pips per day, but I got in some trouble being too aggressive and not using stop loss correctly. Hopefully, I've remedied that bad habit. I am now able to earn good PIPs on M5 and M1, while keeping in touch with M15 for trend; usually with 20 PIP stop loss. I don't think any other "system" around is that effective. Will keep you updated, but still, go try it. You're a good trader with good discipline. You'd eat it up!

Edit: Just to add, I would NEVER propose that THV is the holy grail. In a ranging market such as we've had lately, it's been very difficult. With patience and reviewing the multiple timeframes, THV does give enough good trades though. Hope this helps.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
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