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Psiholog's EUR/USD trading style

  • #201
  • Feb 12, 2009 11:16am Feb 12, 2009 11:16am
stopped out. i did enter too soon (cant win them all right). while that downtrend for that last move was the temporary channel..it was not the bigger picture. the bigger picture started at 1.29xx which was the last high. I believe this is the new trend now that the triangle was broken to the downside and this violent rush back up was just a retest to reinforce that upper wall. This move up also moved in a channel and the lower wall is currently at 1.2815. This is the moment that will determine all..the battle for 1.2815...if it gives way, the larger downtrend is solid and ill regain my lost pips, if it doesnt give way, well who knows how high well go. Bias short still. My 2 trades are half a position each again..forgot to adjust pip size or id be ful position from the higher value.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #202
  • Feb 12, 2009 11:25am Feb 12, 2009 11:25am
Quoting psiholog
stopped out. i did enter too soon (cant win them all right). while that downtrend for that last move was the temporary channel..it was not the bigger picture. the bigger picture started at 1.29xx which was the last high. I believe this is the new trend now that the triangle was broken to the downside and this violent rush back up was just a retest to reinforce that upper wall. This move up also moved in a channel and the lower wall is currently at 1.2815. This is the moment that will determine all..the battle for 1.2815...if it gives way, the larger...

Sorry to hear you are stopped out. Im targeting a 2875 for short if it holds....if not 2940.

I missed the opportunity to go long at 2720 or so because I was asleep but it was a great buy signal.
Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #203
  • Feb 12, 2009 11:40am Feb 12, 2009 11:40am
Quoting dstryr
Sorry to hear you are stopped out. Im targeting a 2875 for short if it holds....if not 2940.

I missed the opportunity to go long at 2720 or so because I was asleep but it was a great buy signal.
i saw it and was considering a buy there but i missed the bigger channel. this is what happens with channels, when we are ranging, its hard to say what is the right channel walls to watch. sometimes its too late like in this case. as far as the previous trade goes, i just gave back what i made for the day. if i lose this trade as well, ill be -50pips for the day and i would take a break as 2 losing trades in a row would not only imply that i am interpreting the market incorrectly but also that the range was falsely broken to the downside and we are still ranging between 1.2815 and 1.3100. time will tell now, hate to turn a positive day into a negative one but hey, it happens. all that matters is im still positive for the week no matter what. good pippin to you and everyone else who reads my thread, if it is of any help that is.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #204
  • Feb 12, 2009 11:44am Feb 12, 2009 11:44am
Quoting psiholog
i saw it and was considering a buy there but i missed the bigger channel. this is what happens with channels, when we are ranging, its hard to say what is the right channel walls to watch. sometimes its too late like in this case. as far as the previous trade goes, i just gave back what i made for the day. if i lose this trade as well, ill be -50pips for the day and i would take a break as 2 losing trades in a row would not only imply that i am interpreting the market incorrectly but also that the range was falsely broken to the downside and we...
I know exactly how that is man . Up 50 here...Up 20 there then -45 or so...

Thats the thing about channels, either they hold great or they break. Another signal to long there was a tripple bottom on the daily. =D. Great pippin do you and I love reading your thread. Maybe I'll post a few of my own charts tonight/tomorrow and we can collaborate.
Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #205
  • Feb 12, 2009 11:53am Feb 12, 2009 11:53am
Quoting dstryr
Thats the thing about channels, either they hold great or they break. Another signal to long there was a tripple bottom on the daily. =D. Great pippin do you and I love reading your thread. Maybe I'll post a few of my own charts tonight/tomorrow and we can collaborate.
i would appreciate if you did that and anyone else whos up to the task. this thread is not meant only to help others but to help me as well haha. my perceptions on channels is not always correct even though ive been doing this for as long as ive been trading which is why other perceptions like yours would be greatly appreciated.

Sidenote: 1.2815 being tested again ...come on baby..bring the pips to papa...break that level haha
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #206
  • Feb 12, 2009 12:04pm Feb 12, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting psiholog
....the break up was before and after feds cut rates pretty much to zero. i mean..how often in history does that happen....
It is my theory that in cases like this, the market had its direction already decided, regardless of the news. The news certainly accelerated PA but I believe the scenario was already priced in. The resulting pullback, due to dynamics you mentioned, was also an eventuality. Similarly, we could see big news push price down in a big way, though it seems destined to move that way anyway.

Quoting psiholog
...one has to think that inflation will start taking its effect eventually. with consumer spending going down by the day, prices will eventually have to go up on everything, only way for anyone that has a product to sell to survive, which will lead to rates being raised eventually ...
I have to differ with your opinion there. Businesses will not raise prices in a poor economy. They are more likely to drop them when demand is low and competition is high (I am seeing this alot right now). The biggest driving force in keeping businesses alive right now is an ongoing increase in productivity, due to technologies and other efficiency improvements. Nevertheless, I do agree that eventually interest rates will have to be increased. The monetary base has doubled year over year, so that extra money will be have to be taken back out of the economy when growth resumes or else there will be much inflation.
  • #207
  • Feb 12, 2009 12:14pm Feb 12, 2009 12:14pm
I see this as a possible channel, especially if 2815 falls.
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  • #208
  • Feb 12, 2009 12:19pm Feb 12, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting TradeWell
I see this as a possible channel, especially if 2815 falls.
very good..i like it...i didnt even notice that haha. keep it up
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #209
  • Feb 12, 2009 12:26pm Feb 12, 2009 12:26pm
that 1.2815 level is so scary...if we dont break south of 1.2800 decisively...this has the potential to turn into an inverted h&s on the 15min charts with shoulderline at 1.2815 (roughly) and neckline at 1.2870 which would mean head to neckline is around 150 pips which would push us to just over 1.3000 again.....man this is one of those days where i cant "feel" the market at all..maybe i should just close my trade and call it a day...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #210
  • Feb 12, 2009 12:34pm Feb 12, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting psiholog
that 1.2815 level is so scary...if we dont break south of 1.2800 decisively...this has the potential to turn into an inverted h&s on the 15min charts with shoulderline at 1.2815 (roughly) and neckline at 1.2870 which would mean head to neckline is around 150 pips which would push us to just over 1.3000 again.....man this is one of those days where i cant "feel" the market at all..maybe i should just close my trade and call it a day...
I know you don't use indicators but mine are very mixed right now. Obviously a big decision point. Perhaps a re-entry at the 1.28 break, should it happen?
  • #211
  • Feb 12, 2009 12:46pm Feb 12, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting TradeWell
I know you don't use indicators but mine are very mixed right now. Obviously a big decision point. Perhaps a re-entry at the 1.28 break, should it happen?
the way its set up right now...when it breaks...it will break hard...if it does decide to go south...it will be at least a 100pip run in my opinion retesting the lows. We would miss the entry if that happens if were not already short. I'm always keeping in mind that price action these days moves from double highs to double lows. Now in this scenario..the low has seen no retest yet which makes me believe there is still room to go south. However if for once an inverted h&s appears, well hit a stop at 1.2870 most likely. In other words...there is more room to the downside right now then the upside but the smart move is to be flat as it is a deciding point. I guess im not that smart. Sometimes pure instinct decides a play and im willing to lose this trade if it goes against me. You decide whats best for you
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #212
  • Feb 12, 2009 1:03pm Feb 12, 2009 1:03pm
Quoting psiholog
....the smart move is to be flat as it is a deciding point. ....
I'm flat but I don't know if it's because I'm smart or just dumbfounded.
  • #213
  • Feb 12, 2009 1:10pm Feb 12, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting TradeWell
I'm flat but I don't know if it's because I'm smart or just dumbfounded.
no your smart, your indicators are mixed..no entry. not only that but on top of the possible h&s we have a cup and handle formation or a bull flag. i dont know why im still short..i guess i want to lose haha. anyways...im off to get some sleep..i give up on this trade...good pippin all...this market is...difficult
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #214
  • Feb 12, 2009 1:14pm Feb 12, 2009 1:14pm
still waiting for the other side of the triangle....
  • #215
  • Feb 12, 2009 1:19pm Feb 12, 2009 1:19pm
just found your thread Psiholog,
thanks a lot for your time and teaching us!
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #216
  • Feb 12, 2009 1:59pm Feb 12, 2009 1:59pm
np jazz, maybe someday you will have your own additions to the thread


on another note...made my money back..hah...guess my instincts were right after all. closed that second position and leaving the rest to run till wherever...stop loss at entry. that downtrend identified earlier is holding for now, upper wall extended a bit more. im really going to sleep now, i wont let cofee get the best of me hah. good pippin all, i see first support around 1.2760/1.2775 with stronger support at 1.2700.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #217
  • Edited 9:05pm Feb 12, 2009 8:46pm | Edited 9:05pm
Took a short at 2898...top of the 1hr channel as well as lots of resistance there. Gotta break 2860 level or so for a nice trade.
Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #218
  • Feb 12, 2009 9:16pm Feb 12, 2009 9:16pm
Quoting dstryr
Took a short at 2898...top of the 1hr channel as well as lots of resistance there. Gotta break 2860 level or so for a nice trade.
Stopped out ... screw asia lol I guess I have more learning to do
Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #219
  • Feb 12, 2009 9:20pm Feb 12, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting dstryr
Stopped out ... screw asia lol I guess I have more learning to do
I tried twice and got SL at BE. I thought it would be low risk taking it from the top of the channel. Now PA is moving higher, need to find the new channel.
  • #220
  • Feb 12, 2009 9:21pm Feb 12, 2009 9:21pm
Quoting TradeWell
I tried twice and got SL at BE. I thought it would be low risk taking it from the top of the channel. Now PA is moving higher, need to find the new channel.
Im going to try again at 2940 or so...daily high and 100% retracement from the move down.
Going to make it big by age 21.
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