No Brainer Trades

I had essentially the same trade, except my chart had the res-turned-support at 131.01, so my entry was at 131.05. Got stopped out quickly. This is just a demo; live I probably would not have entered because of the strong momentum down, but I'm kind of just gathering data right now. Many of my winners have had similarly strong momentum right up to the line before reversing; in fact, I think more often than not the s-r has been respected regardless of the momentum.

0 for 3 this week, and there were a couple others I didn't get to quickly enough (have my alerts set for 45 pips away, apparently that's not enough), and those were losers too...

Hi Sherm,

It's nice to see someone else utilize the breakeven concept, usually I move my stops to +1pip at around +20pips profit (but that depends on market rhythm). You know how the saying goes, "Never let a Winner turn into a Loser", even if that means getting stopped out. The market is not going to vanish and better trades will come...

Orcus - For what its worth, if you post up some of the ranges/areas you're looking at, I'm sure some of the folks here would be willing (I can say that I'd try to help with it) to confirm or offer some alternative ideas which can help you identify any challenges or problems you might be having in identifying the S&R values you trade.

Hi,

Nice level on cable to watch again.

yep that is the key....winners will run and wont come back those are the only ones I whant.....the other once are simply not meant to be if they dont go right way. I defently move my stop to break even based on the rythem of that pair ...

Thank you very much for the offer, and I'll probably take you up on it. I'm generally trying to just read and learn as much as I can without cluttering up the thread with lots of questions that have been asked and answered many times before. I'm almost all caught up with the thread from the beginning and have been pasting key posts and charts into a Word Doc as I go (I know most or all of the important stuff is on BRV's site, but there are some good question-answer posts as well, and many of the charts have a bit of explanation missing from the blog).

One question I would have would be how many confident "NBT"s would be fairly typical per week during the current conditions?

Looking at my data since I started being really serious about recording every little detail about three weeks ago, if I weeded out all the trades I had *any* bit of sketchiness in my notes for, and all the ones that had a lot of price momentum at entry, my results were actually not awful -- three weeks, 29 trades, 19 winners and 10 losers for 65% win/loss, and a total gain of about 15x my risk. I say "not awful" in comparison to BRV's "90%" goal, but personally I would be quite happy if I could manage 15x risk per month And that was with taking half off at +40 and the rest at +80; if I simply held out for the +80, it would have been 15 winners and 10 losers for 60% w/l but a gain of 18x risk.

For this week, I had three trades, all losers; two looked good but had pretty strong price momentum at the time of entry, the other I think was just one of those trades that doesn't work out.

This is one of my new longs keep in mind I m still in my gbpusd long from yesterday I managing it and looking for the right time to add to it....but this is my new long I have a preety big stop on this one....

lol seems like I might have to do a little of managing to my to trades today and scale out and rescale back in using the same constant of risk

My USDJPY limit buy missed by 1 pip

But its ok, better than losing.

I am looking at 130.30 for a possible short position.

The trend is down, and a NBT, i feel.

thax

Hi Ishacm

As one newbie to another I'd like to offer you my ideas on this trade. I trust if I'm way of the track that the more experienced members on here will put us both right.

I would say that your post shows that, while you have the basic idea, I think you need to fine tune your entries a bit.

One thing that I picked up from the more experienced guys on here is that areas such as 13030 would be considered to be a guide as an area in which to enter - not necessarily 'the' entry.

From looking at the chart it would seem that you took your 13030 level from yesterday's low. However you either didn't notice or failed to take account of the fact that there was a pivot reversal on the 30th at 12054. This level is actually just 4 pips away from the close of the down bar you are taking your 13030 level from.

Equally, if you zoom into the 5 minute bar at 5.40am his morning you will see that it left the overnight consolidation in a bit of a hurry. Something of a supply overload I'd say.

Also the consolidation that formed at the bottom of that bar shows a high at about 6.20am, again with the price dropping out of the area in something of a hurry. It is also interesting to note that on revisiting to the same area price was again rejected.

As I'm writing this the price has returned to that high and topped at 13023 and is now dropping again.

The thing that I'm trying to say here is that there are lots of clues all in the area of the 'level' that you were going to enter on that you should consider.

The market has dropped from 13019 twice (and now 13023) for apparently good and obvious reasons.
There was a real supply overload at 13081 this morning.

To me this would say to enter somewhere just short of the 13019 level and put my stop loss up past the 13081 level.

I hope this helps and I look forward to comments from the other guys on here.

Morning, guys!

Just woke up a few minutes ago, opened up the platform and put two shorts immediately. Why? EURCHF was testing resistance at 1.4985 - 1.5, so I shorted at 1.4982, currently 19 pips in the money... I also shorted half of position on EURGBP at 0.8977 and half at 0.8990 (resistance at 0.8980 - 0.9000). That's negative right now, so if it doesn't go as planed, I'll cut my losses short.

Hmm... Claimaint count change on GBP in 20 minutes... That might make EURGBP to rise

Morning Bumasoft

Yeah they reckon it's going 2m+ for the first time in over 10 years or for the first time since they last changed the way they cook the books to hide the true figures.

I'm 44 pips in the money on the EURCHF short... Too bad the short on EURGBP is lowering my profit (it's still in the negative)

Closed for 45 pips.

LOL. Talking about luck! Good news for the GBP, which means good news for my EURGBP short

If we move up to 6688 I will be break even on my long in the gbpchf since my second postion is way hevier...

Now I can remange the the trade and cut in halve and simply remange with a different risk ....with a sound money mangement system is preety hard to loose

Closed for 31 pips. Total of 76 pips today in just 30 minutes. Gorgeous!