Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

hey guys -- for those of you hoping to drive Jacko away, i think you all have accomplished that. Please do not use this forum as a place to get your frustrations out or pump up your posting count. I would like to talk about the markets.

Any one with me? lets have a constructive discussion about the e/u and what it is CURRENTLY doing...

Is everyone under the same pretense that we are in a down trend or are we still calling this a correction of the 5 year bull market? love to see some positive input.

Best post this weekend!

There are 2 people I listen to about markets and trends for long term references. Jacko & Professor Nouriel Roubini (AKA Dr. Doom). they have both said similar things about the E$.

Apr 15, 2008 8:08am
Dec 21, 2008: http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/254816/focus_on_currencies (Free login may be required to view full article)
~~~~
Does the U.S. dollar’s December (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=26aba3b554cd04c0ee4eb1104ae7e6d2&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1) slide (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=6e87802e1b7bfd212be6be98cae979e2&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1) mean the USD has passed its peak? Most likely not. The turn-of-the-year profit-taking on long USD positions creates a near-term blip in the dollar's uptrend but doesn't alter the medium-term trend of appreciation versus the euro (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=ef8c71171bfea16d05b4f66dd0b7b399&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1). The four horseman of the carry trade apocalypse - Deleveraging (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=cb486a54a0e55079b00422bc9fbf9b40&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1), Risk Aversion (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=f098cc69c1220ca1bfa4c064b188bed9&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1), Growth Differentials and the Dollar's Reserve Currency Status (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=c242984f66fbe4f06d9f082c819a617b&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1) - would need to retreat before we see a sustained pullback in the EUR/USD from the slide to near-parity ($1.10-$1.30). Governments, banks and other firms are still scrambling for dollars to repay their USD-denominated debt while signs of global recession and credit crisis spur on the flight-to-safety in U.S. Treasuries (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=da7a74ed4b7c984b0bc66f16ce7fbab3&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1). European sovereign bonds (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=2ed4b8ea2a270efc5722274e1ca3a8ec&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1) offer an alternative but inferior safe haven because of the European bond market’s (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=8cc239861223e6a6ea2d6d9ac65eecb3&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1) fragmentation and exposure to emerging Europe (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=783de6b21ea6ae9be4b0b4728dfdbc7a&g=2596&c=444&p=5deb67a70f0e422c62fad5f418648da8&t=1). More aggressive policy response in the U.S. compared to Europe, could bring the U.S. out of a recession faster than the Eurozone (though growth will most likely remain subdued for some years to come), supporting the dollar against the euro. In the longer term, however, once risk appetite revives, the greenback might lose its defenses in wake of worries surrounding U.S. public debt expansion and the potential inflationary effect of quantitative easing.
~~~~~

The Prof & his site are more focused on the global economies and their effects than just currencies. One does influence the other.

genius very interesting...thank you as it does offer more to analyse than the usual flight to safety argument...parity...now that would be a nice ride to take..

on the other side a weak euro also helps eurozone exports...

for now I'm going to just trade what I see on the charts....but I won't be holding my breath for any long term long positions at this time...

what a pleasant surprise...over 5 pages gone...so much the better.. they weren't of any use to the thread and it's goal anyways.

let's move on...

Hi KGB,

fyi, I was not referrencing your post, it was directed at mojo and his likes. Don't know if you got my email, I can't answer PM's on FF yet, it seems.

Agreed and lets hope that numpty's gone with 'em.

M

Ok - here is my set up for this week. ANY comments or criticism (as long as it's constructive) will be appreciated.

I have the assumption that we are in a down trend - bear - market. This puts me in the situation of looking for short entries. Looking at the daily and 4H charts, I see the the trend line from 12/18 is mostly still intact and the bars are currently looking for a bounce. Not to mention the Resistance at 1.3000 is very close by.

I am looking to enter a short with a 100 pip stop @ 1.3000. Any one have any opinions to offer? Any tips or ideas would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Michael

I never mess with words like "correction" and such, cause we are presently in a downtrend and every downtrend in the world is gonna retrace at some point or another (and we know its always some support level)

so i threw some charts together and as can be seen, the one year prob has a bit more downside to it, but since eu tends to follow its techs and history pretty danged well, looks like UP pretty soon for those who play the longer terms !

looking at the 20 day/H4 chart, one sees that we are in a topside bounce to the lower support level and have paused, as is fairly normal, at the midpoint of the LRC, where a currency "usually" will consolidate for a wee bit before continuing on its merry way to complete the SHORT trade.

presently we see the currency "ranging", which is perfectly normal at this point and common wisdom fancies a breakdown to bottom support, ALTHOUGH indicators are showing a continued up move that could easily see 3076 before giving in to its downward pull.

so whats that all mean ?

continued downside on the longer term charts with a nice upside retrace before we go back down !

enjoy and trade well

mp

not always in "complete" agreement with Jacko, but use enough of the methodology to have people ask if i were him !

Hi guys,

For those of you using Jacko's strategy - do you consider a 100 pip stop loss too tight at the moment? I use a 10 period ATR on the daily charts to give me a snapshot of how much the market is moving and back in 2007 the ATR was typically less than 100 pips (back when Jacko advocated a 50 pip stop). Then in 2008 the ATR went above 100 pips a day (at a similar time to increasing to a 100 pip stop). These days the E/U's ATR is above 200 pips a day.

Any thoughts?

Regards,

Dan

PS Constructive thoughts only please!!!

PPS My history on when the stop loss increased may not be exact but roughly speaking!

I belive the idea is that more volitility, requireing expansion of the stop, means we need to reduce the trade size and beyond that, be more selective in the trades we take and use those MM techniques that will keep you around to trade tomorrow if you are wrong. If the trade needs a stop beyond 100pips, probably better to pass and let the market settle to a more manageable range. mho

I agree completely, a 200 pip stop loss for me is way out of range. The size of my trades would have to be cut in half in order to maintain my current R%. Thus decreasing my profit potential - which is small to begin with. I will just use Jacko's AH strategy if I do get stopped out...like he says - the market will always come back the way of the trend, just jump back on where you got off...(sorry for the paraphrase). Looks like I'll be short as soon as the Markets open on Monday...

I like the good ideas being tossed around, I hope they are still on topic.

I personally adjust the stoploss depending on the TF that I'm taking the trade on. I think 100pips might be a bit small for a daily or a 4hr, unless you buy support and sell resistance where to hit 100pips SL would mean that a breakout the other way is in play.

I thinki it's likely to consolidate between the 28 and 2900 levels before it decides which way to go ... but over all I see down as a good bet

I too see consolidation there, but the 1.300 is pretty good resistance along with the current trendline. I am looking to ride it down to about 1.2800 and then tighten my stop up to about 50pips...

I still think the euro is over valued and with the economic forecast coming up for Euroland - i think we are going to see a lot of downward pressure.

What does everyone else think about their entry/exits this week?

I also think eurozone is going to be under some major pressure - made a quick 30 pips overnight which is always pleasant - and am expecting a small correction up to the 1.2980 - 1.3000 area where I'm ready to enter. Just in case - I already have pending short orders at 12870.

For now my present target range is 1.2770 - 1.2790 - I'll reevaluate going along and am considering adding new positions as well...we'll see.

I entered a short at 1.2950 this morning; market moved in my favour but is close back to where I entered! I must admit I expected a bit more of a decisive move from 1.3000 but it has yet to appear.

Something I did note was that the last wave down (on 4 hour chart) did not make a new low. Does this hold any significance for Jacko traders?

Regards,


Dan

I think this is one of those times where, in the early posts, jacko would be saying the train was loading up passengers but I'll have to see which end of the platform it blows the whistle at before I get on. On my chart it's so close to breaking the daily trend that I think it's best (for me) to get on at the next whistle stop. Good luck to those that pick it right....

I've a sell order in place at 2980, but am wondering if I could 'squeak' it higher.

if it breaks 2992 I'm looking for another 50 pips off the 2--6-- 1600hr candle on the 4hr chart ...