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  • #7,681
  • Feb 5, 2009 2:05pm Feb 5, 2009 2:05pm
Here is my GU short I want to take
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  • #7,682
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:41pm Feb 5, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting big_pipin
Here is my GU short I want to take
Hi Big_Pipin, I'm not sure what time frame (H4 perhaps) you're using, since in the last trading day GBPUSD reached its T1 (target) we are looking for a long condition following the current trend (after the inner fiblines try to get tested for todays session).

Perhaps you are scalping short towards those inner fiblines, if that's the case good luck to ya...
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  • #7,683
  • Feb 5, 2009 6:36pm Feb 5, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting Aad
Hi Big_Pipin, I'm not sure what time frame (H4 perhaps) you're using, since in the last trading day GBPUSD reached its T1 (target) we are looking for a long condition following the current trend (after the inner fiblines try to get tested for todays session).

Perhaps you are scalping short towards those inner fiblines, if that's the case good luck to ya...
Hei Aad, Did your previous Intraday setup like mine below? If it was, how would you deal with the deep retracement break the Intraday Fib level? Since the bias become short..
Thanks
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  • #7,684
  • Feb 7, 2009 1:18am Feb 7, 2009 1:18am
Quoting Mini J
Hei Aad, Did your previous Intraday setup like mine below? If it was, how would you deal with the deep retracement break the Intraday Fib level? Since the bias become short..
Thanks
Hi Mini J,

I rarely use my swing fib as I don't really care for scalping. The thing is that on the 2/4/09 trade session the long Targets were not necessarily fully reached. This would make me more cautious and patient waiting for my Intraday long fib lines to prove themselves to me.

Just look at the chart I previously posted above, on the 2/5/09 trade session I had a silver S/R/Volume line @ 1.4457. I simply waited for that line to break and hold along with my fib before joining the Long express.

Also let's not forget that on the 2/5/09 trade session the Resistance H4 Fib had previously turned into support @ around 1.4414 (so not to good of a reason for me to consider a short trade for that day). I did the same thing for the 2/3/09 trade session as you can see that I also had a line @ 1.4260.

When S/R and Fibs unite observation and then participation works great more often then not...
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  • #7,685
  • Feb 8, 2009 9:22am Feb 8, 2009 9:22am
For some reason I cannot seem to find the indicators you are using for your intraday fibs/pivots. I tried the Fibo indicator attached to the thread (the latest one) as well as the template attached and they aren't matching up.



Quoting Aad
[b][color=DimGray]Hi Mini J,

I rarely use my swing fib as I don't really care for scalping. The thing is that on the 2/4/09 trade session the long Targets were not necessarily fully reached. This would make me more cautious and patient waiting for my Intraday long fib lines to prove themselves to me.

Just look at the chart I previously posted above, on the 2/5/09 trade session I had a silver S/R/Volume line @ 1.4457. I simply waited for that line to break and hold along with my fib before joining the Long express.

Also let's not forget that on...
  • #7,686
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:23am Feb 8, 2009 10:23am
Looking for a bounce from 'intraday levels', also in confluence with bigger wave fibs...
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  • #7,687
  • Edited 11:23pm Feb 8, 2009 6:54pm | Edited 11:23pm
Quoting Aad
[b][color=DimGray]Hi Mini J,

I rarely use my swing fib as I don't really care for scalping. The thing is that on the 2/4/09 trade session the long Targets were not necessarily fully reached. This would make me more cautious and patient waiting for my Intraday long fib lines to prove themselves to me.

Just look at the chart I previously posted above, on the 2/5/09 trade session I had a silver S/R/Volume line @ 1.4457. I simply waited for that line to break and hold along with my fib before joining the Long express.

Also let's not forget that on...
So You simply watch for a bounce from Intraday Fib after the price break all the resistance from the previous high (Silver Line 1.4457 and Blue Line 1.4544). What was your entry candle? candle 10:00 or 12:00?
Was the resistance of my swing fibs from my last post also valid?
  • #7,688
  • Feb 9, 2009 7:20am Feb 9, 2009 7:20am
Quoting islandtrader
Looking for a bounce from 'intraday levels', also in confluence with bigger wave fibs...
We got the expected bounce from 'intraday' fib, took partial profit at fib confluence and closed at Friday high.
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  • #7,689
  • Feb 9, 2009 3:42pm Feb 9, 2009 3:42pm
Quoting Beta4x
For some reason I cannot seem to find the indicators you are using for your intraday fibs/pivots. I tried the Fibo indicator attached to the thread (the latest one) as well as the template attached and they aren't matching up.

Those lines represent Volume prices where the big boys tend to trade at, they also work as good S/R. I placed those lines myself, I do not use pivot lines or any Fib indicator. The exception being the line @ 1.4383 which was placed by the "DIBS TriggerLines v2a (AAD Mods)" indicator and represents the Weekly Open price line...

Quoting Mini J
So You simply watch for a bounce from Intraday Fib after the price break all the resistance from the previous high (Silver Line 1.4457 and Blue Line 1.4544). What was your entry candle? candle 10:00 or 12:00?
Was the resistance of my swing fibs from my last post also valid?
Yes, I always try to wait for a bounce from the Fibs inner lines. Entry candle was the 12GMT since that candle opened above the 1.4457 S/R line and the 1.4479 Intraday Fib line. The 10GMT candle could of been taken but it would be a more risky trade since that candle opened below the 1.4479 Intraday Fib line but you could of held onto it as long as it did not close below the 1.4457 S/R line.

The Swing Fib can be used to follow what price is currently doing (as I believe you were doing, though for some it might lead to directional confusion) but I would not use it as a source of good S/R or proper price turning points. Larger Fibs and S/R tend to hold more weight...
  • #7,690
  • Feb 9, 2009 6:38pm Feb 9, 2009 6:38pm
Quoting Aad
Entry candle was the 12GMT since that candle opened above the 1.4457 S/R line and the 1.4479 Intraday Fib line.
Why didn't You put your entry at 11GMT? Since it was also open above 1.4457 and 1.4479..
Thanks
  • #7,691
  • Feb 9, 2009 7:53pm Feb 9, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting Mini J
Why didn't You put your entry at 11GMT? Since it was also open above 1.4457 and 1.4479..
Thanks
Because of the reaction that the 10GMT candle had against the S/R line @ 1.4544 (possible ping pong action towards the inner fib might occur, so I waited for a possible better entry/rejection around the Fib line @ 1.4479). I was just being extra cautious and saved myself that bigger draw down, but it doesn't always work out that way (patience is key)...
  • #7,692
  • Feb 9, 2009 10:01pm Feb 9, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting Aad
Because of the reaction that the 10GMT candle had against the S/R line @ 1.4544 (possible ping pong action towards the inner fib might occur, so I waited for a possible better entry/rejection around the Fib line @ 1.4479). I was just being extra cautious and saved myself that bigger draw down, but it doesn't always work out that way (patience is key)...
Yes, Patience is the key..
There was a day when the price didn't come down to Intraday Fibs, not even touched it, which occured at Feb,6th 2009.How would you deal with it regardless of NFP that day?
  • #7,693
  • Feb 10, 2009 12:27am Feb 10, 2009 12:27am
Quoting Mini J
Yes, Patience is the key..
There was a day when the price didn't come down to Intraday Fibs, not even touched it, which occured at Feb,6th 2009.How would you deal with it regardless of NFP that day?
Simple, no fib interaction means no trade (the market won't vanish and better days will come) even though the direction was right. Obviously on 2/6/2009 we were looking for longs as I stated to Big Pipin on a previous post from that day.

I only like to risk a max of 50pips for SL but if I was okay with risking twice that much (and smaller lots), then maybe I could of gone long and not cared about sustaining larger drawdown if the market did test those inner fibs that day. But I don't trade for the sake of trading and I'm very picky with my entries and do not deem it necessary to have a larger SL. Also with NFP where the market can switch like jackal and hide I said forget it, no need to take on such unnecessary risks...
  • #7,694
  • Feb 10, 2009 2:56am Feb 10, 2009 2:56am
Quoting Aad
[b][color=DimGray]Simple, no fib interaction means no trade (the market won't vanish and better days will come) even though the direction was right. Obviously on 2/6/2009 we were looking for longs as I stated to Big Pipin on a previous post from that day.

I only like to risk a max of 50pips for SL but if I was okay with risking twice that much (and smaller lots), then maybe I could of gone long and not cared about sustaining larger drawdown if the market did test those inner fibs that day. But I don't trade for the sake of trading and I'm very...
Thanks alot Aad..help me much.. Then how will you deal with ranging case like today? Is it a sign of reversal?
Do you take a trade if the price keep going down to the low of 1.4701? Or you simply wait for the next setup and change mode to sell rally?
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  • #7,695
  • Feb 10, 2009 8:19am Feb 10, 2009 8:19am
Hi,
is there some skype group for Bobokus Fibo ?

Thank You.


Best,
Tomass
  • #7,696
  • Feb 10, 2009 8:57am Feb 10, 2009 8:57am

The Golden Ratio and

The Fibonacci Numbers





The Golden Ratio ( ) is an irrational number with several curious properties. It can be defined as that number which is equal to its own reciprocal plus one: = 1/+ 1. Multiplying both sides of this same equation by the Golden Ratio we derive the interesting property that the square of the Golden Ratio is equal to the simple number itself plus one: 2 = + 1. Since that equation can be written as 2 - - 1 = 0, we can derive the value of the Golden Ratio from the quadratic equation, , with a = 1, b = -1, and c = -1: . The Golden Ratio is an irrational number, but not a transcendental one (like ), since it is the solution to a polynomial equation.
This gives us either 1.618 033 989 or -0.618 033 989. The first number is usually regarded as the Golden Ratio itself, the second as the negative of its reciprocal. The Golden Ratio can also be derived from trigonometric functions: = 2 sin 3/10 = 2 cos /5; and 1/= 2 sin /10 = 2 cos 2/5. The angles in the trigonometric equations in degrees rather than radians are 54o, 36o, 18o, and 72o, respectively.
The Golden Ratio seems to get its name from the Golden Rectangle, a rectangle whose sides are in the proportion of the Golden Ratio. The theory of the Golden Rectangle is an aesthetic one, that the ratio is an aesthetically pleasing one and so can be found spontaneously or deliberately turning up in a great deal of art. Thus, for instance, the front of the Parthenon can be comfortably framed with a Golden Rectangle. How pleasing the Golden Rectangle is, and how often it really does turn up in art, may be largely a matter of interpretation and preference. The construction of a Golden Rectangle, however, is an interesting exercise in the geometry of the Golden Ratio, as seen at right. Beginning with a unit square, first the square is bisected, then a diagonal is drawn in the semi-square. The length of the diagonal can be calculated with the Pythagorean Theorem, based on a triangle that is .5 on one side and 1 on the other. The diagonal is therefore (1 + .52) = (1.25) = 1.118033989. If we merely add .5, this produces the Golden Ratio, 1.6l8033989. Thus, if we extend the side of the unit square and draw a circle with a radius of the diagonal and its center at the midpoint on the unit side, the circle will intersect the side at a point that will be 1.6l8033989 units from the corner of the square. In effect, this gives us an equation for the Golden Ratio: = .5 + 1.25. We can easily turn this into the previous equation, however, just by multiplying the numbers so as to get integers: = 1 / 2 + 21.25 / 2 = (1 + 21.25) / 2 = (1 + (4 * 1.25)) / 2 = (1 + 5) / 2.


Whether or not the Golden Ratio or the Golden Rectangle are of aesthetic significance, the ratio does turn out to have considerable significance in problems of natural symmetry. For instance, a surface can be completely and symmetrically tiled with triangles, squares, and hexagons, but not with pentagons. Periodic five-fold symmetry does not occur in nature. However, in the early 70's Roger Penrose discovered that a surface could be completely tiled in an asymmetrical and non-periodic way with just two shapes, called "kites" and "darts" -- "Penrose tiles" -- as seen at right. Within this tiling, however, there can be small areas of five-fold symmetry. Multiple decagons, some of which from a distance can look like pentagons, can occur. Now, it just so happens, that, given a large enough area, the ratio of kites to darts is just the Golden Ratio. Why would this happen? Well, a complete circular angle (360o) divided by five is 72o, which occurred above as one of the angles whose trigonometric function is the Golden Ratio. More conspicuously, the very irrationality of the Golden Ratio is an artifact of the square root of five: . If the Golden Ratio turns up in examples of five-fold symmetry, it may well be because the number itself is fundamentally related to the number five.


n



fn



n = fn+ f n-1



= n-1 + n-2

= n+1 - n-1

= n+2 - n+1




-11
89

-10
-55
-10 = 89 - 55= -11 + -12 = -8 - -9
-9
34
-9 = 34- 55 = -10 + -11 = -7 - -8
-8
-21
-8 = 34 - 21= -9 + -10 = -6 - -7
-7
13
-7 = 13- 21 = -8 + -9 = -5 - -6
-6
-8
-6 = 13 - 8= -7 + -8 = -4 - -5
-5
5
-5 = 5- 8 = -6 + -7 = -3 - -4
-4
-3
-4 = 5 - 3= -5 + -6 = -2 - -3
-3
2
-3 = 2- 3 = -4 + -5 = -1 - -2
-2
-1
-2 = 2 - = -3 + -4 = 1 - -1
-1
1
-1 = - 1 = -2 + -3 = - 1
0
0
1 = 0 + 1 = -1 + -2 = - -1
1
1
= + 0 = 1 + -1
2
1
2 = + 1 = + 1
3
2
3 = 2+ 1 = 2 + = 5 - 4
4
3
4 = 3+ 2 = 3 + 2 = 6 - 5
5
5
5 = 5+ 3 = 4 + 3
6
8
6 = 8+ 5 = 5 + 4
7
13
7 = 13+ 8 = 6 + 5
8
21
8 = 21+ 13 = 7 + 6
9
34
9 = 34+ 21 = 8 + 7
10
55
10 = 55+ 34 = 9 + 8
11
89
11 = 89+ 55 = 10 + 9
12
144
12 = 144+ 89 = 11 + 10
13
233
13 = 233+ 144
14
377
14 = 377+ 233
15
610
15 = 610+ 377
16
987
16 = 987+ 610
17
1597
17 = 1597+ 987 = 18 - 16
18
2584
18 = 2584+ 1597
19
4181
19 = 4181+ 2584
20
6765
20 = 6765+ 4181

Another connection of the Golden Ratio to partial symmetries in nature is through the Fibonacci numbers ( fn ). This is a number series where each member is simply the sum of the previous two numbers. Thus, if we begin with 0 and 1, these add up to 1, but then 1 and 1 add up to 2, 2 and 1 add up to 3, 3 and 2 add up to 5, 5 and 3 add up to 8, etc. The series can be extended below zero when we ask what number added to 0 will produce 1, which is then 1. The number added to 1 that will produce 0 is -1. It happens, then, that below zero, we find the same Fibonacci Numbers, but they alternate as positive and negative. The Fibonacci Numbers from the minus eleventh to the twentieth (with zero as the "zeroth") are listed in the table at right.
Now, the Fibonacci Numbers turn up in nature. The spirals discernible in the head of a daisy consist of individual "florets" that count up as Fibonacci Numbers. This is significant here because the ratio between any two successive Fibonacci Numbers approaches a limit as the numbers get larger, and that limit is the Golden Ratio. Thus, 6765/4181 (the 20th and 19th Fibonacci) is 1.618033963, which only differs from the Golden Ratio by 0.000000025.
The table at right illustrates an interesting way in which the Fibonacci Numbers occur naturally in relation to the Golden Ratio. This is based on the property of the Golden Ratio already noted above, that 2 = + 1. Similarly, any power of the Golden Ratio can be broken down into the sum of smaller powers, such as 5 = 4 + 3. Because of this, any power of the Golden Ratio can be ultimately reduced to the sum of an integer and an integer multiple of the Golden Ratio. An example of going through this whole process for a large power is given in footnote. Curiously, all of those integers turn out to be Fibonacci Numbers. Thus, 7 is equal to 13+ 8. This can be generalized, that every power n of is equal to fn+ f n-1.
While we see that the Fibonacci series emerges naturally in the evaluation of the powers of the Golden Ratio, this does not necessarily make it clear why the ratio of the members of the Fibonacci series should approach the Golden Ratio as a limit. As it happens, the connection can be illustrated through the technique of Continued Fractions, which is a device for reducing non-repeating decimals to fractions, i.e. to ratios of integers. The technique for reducing repeating decimals to fractions has been discussed elsewhere. With non-repeating decimals, the integer part of the number is successively removed, and the reciprocal is taken of the remaining decimal, producing a new integer, which is then removed, and the process repeated. This can be continued until the desired accuracy is attained or the capacity of the calculator is exceeded -- since I would assume that most people today would be using a calculator to get the reciprocals (it is not a very convenient procedure otherwise). Once enough integers are obtained, the corresponding fraction with all the embedded fractions can then be solved for a simple integer fraction.

For instance, at right is a continued fraction for the ratio between the length of the lunar (syndic) month (29.530588 days), and the length of the solar (tropical) year (365.24219878 days). This tells us the number of lunar months per solar year; and, in integer form, the fractional part would tell us how many extra lunar months (more than 12 per year) would need to be added in a certain period of solar years to approximate the true ratio. The true ratio is 12.368267058. Removing the 12 and then successively taking the reciprocal and removing the integer part again gives us the integers, after 12, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, and 17 (at least). Successive approximations can be made by stopping at each new integer. Thus, with only 2, we would have the approximation 12+1/2. Stopping with the next 1, 1 gets added to the 2, and the next approximation is 12+1/3. Adding in the next number, a 2, produces a fraction of 3/8, which is historically very important because a popular ancient device for approximating the lunar calendar to a solar year was to add 3 extra months every 8 years. More important, however, was the fraction two steps further. Adding 7 lunar months every 19 years was a device adopted for the Babylonian calendar. The rule was inherited and used even today by the Jewish calendar and for the Christian reckoning of Easter. The next fraction in the series, 123/334, is too large to have been practical for calendar purposes. (The continued fraction for is given in a footnote.)

The Golden Ratio has the unique properties that its reciprocal always produces the same decimal and the reciprocal of the decimal will always produce the integer 1. This means that the continued fraction can be constructed without bothering with a calculator! The continued fraction uniquely only has 1's in it. This also means that the successive fractions can be generated without consulting the diagram. For each fraction, we add 1 and then flip it over (make the reciprocal) for each new fraction. Thus, the first number is 1, producing the fraction 1/1. That is its own reciprocal. To this is added 1 (1/1), resulting in the fraction 2/1. The reciprocal of that is 1/2, our second fraction. To that is added 1 again (now 2/2), resulting in the fraction 3/2. The reciprocal of that is 2/3, our third fraction. To that is added 1 again (now 3/3), resulting in the fraction 5/3. The reciprocal of that is 3/5, our fourth fraction. As this continues, we might notice that the procedure generates fractions that all consist of successive Fibonacci Numbers! This is why ratios of Fibonacci numbers approximate the Golden Ratio, they are all solutions to the unique continued fraction for the Golden Ratio!
I have now received from Devin Chalmers in Juneau, Alaska, a derivation of directly from a definition of the Fibonacci Series (equation 1). Equation 2 moves the definition over one in the series; then we divide both sides by a(n) in equation 3, which we manipulate with a bit of algebra. The limit of both ratios in equation 4 should be the same number, so we replace them with the variable in equation 5. This is equivalent to equation 6, which, as we've seen above, can be plugged into the quadratic equation to get equation 7.

Thus, while the Golden Ratio may not be as important as other mathematical constants, it does have its claim to fame and does have its own unique properties. And, with one further reflection, we can put it into very serious company indeed. Thus, if we define the Golden Ratio as that number which, when one is subtracted, is equal to its own reciprocal ( - 1 = 1/), we might ask in turn what number, when multiplied by minus one, is equal to its own reciprocal ( x * -1 = 1 / x ). This turns out to be the imaginary number, i = -1: -i = l / i. This is a much more significant and mysterious number than the Golden Ratio -- not bad as a kind of cousin.
Trade smarter not harder.
  • #7,697
  • Edited 3:59pm Feb 10, 2009 3:34pm | Edited 3:59pm
Quoting Forex

The Golden Ratio and

The Fibonacci Numbers





[color=black]The Golden Ratio ( ) is an irrational number with several curious properties. It can be defined as that number which is equal to its own reciprocal plus one: = 1/+ 1[FONT=Times...

Hi Forex,

The fib strategy that Bobokus was teaching here was not about the Golden Fib ratio, (which of course many Fib traders already know about) some self fulfilled prophecy or magical alignment of the universe to trade from.

Here we simply use the Fib tool as a measurement tool (like a ruler) that measures a market move from point “A” to point “B” and then we look for retracements off the inner Fib lines as a possible trade setup towards T1/T2 targets.

But regardless, thanks for all that info but make sure to read at least the first 20 pages of this thread to get a better understanding of what’s actually going on here...

Quoting Mini J
Thanks alot Aad..help me much.. Then how will you deal with ranging case like today? Is it a sign of reversal?
Do you take a trade if the price keep going down to the low of 1.4701? Or you simply wait for the next setup and change mode to sell rally?
Although the intraday Long target was met on the previous day the market was showing that it did not want to continue that trend. The market was not able to stay above the intraday Long line.

On days that the market is ranging or you are unsure, it’s good to use the H4 (four hour) chart and depending on your risk appetite you could of shorted the 12GMT candle (as that candle opened below the intraday Short Fib line on the H4 chart).

Then you trail your profits using the previous hourly candles High if shorting, or do the opposite when trading long...
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  • #7,698
  • Feb 11, 2009 3:45am Feb 11, 2009 3:45am
hey,Aad your responses are as good as Bo's.I'm glad you start posting again on this thread.
I was wondering what would be your set up for Euro ,today?
  • #7,699
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:48am Feb 11, 2009 7:48am
Thank you for your insight, I do apologize for getting off topic I was adding some information in hopes of helping or educating traders on where FIBs come from and what they are… I will add some FIB studies on here in order to better assist other traders with there studies.

Sincerely and Thank you again for your time.
Quoting Aad
Hi Forex,

The fib strategy that Bobokus was teaching here was not about the Golden Fib ratio, (which of course many Fib traders already know about) some self fulfilled prophecy or magical alignment of the universe to trade from.

Here we simply use the Fib tool as a measurement tool (like a ruler) that measures a market move from point “A” to point “B” and then we look for retracements off the inner Fib lines as a possible trade setup towards T1/T2 targets....
Trade smarter not harder.
  • #7,700
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:42pm Feb 11, 2009 6:42pm
Hi Aad,
Is my Intraday Fib correct?
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