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No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink

I backtested this as a quant with not so good results
It's a breakeven system at the best
Quoting eurolinux
I backtested this as a quant with not so good results
It's a breakeven system at the best
Trouble is, this isn't a complete "system" presented here. I'm not sure how it can be tested as such.
For instance, how did you select the hot hand for each entry?
How far did you let winners run?
Did you consider a daily bias beyond the up or down on the day rule? Peter indicated that there were days when he wouldn't take a long trade even if the rule allowed it as his overall bias might be different.
Did you trade around news announcements?

Of course if you took every inside bar that only met the up or down on the day rule with no regard to the strongest pair your results would likely be poor. This isn't intended to a beginner's paint-by-numbers method. It is only an entry with the assumption that additional trading savvy will be brought to the table and applied to pair selection, profit taking, adding on, and staying out when conditions dictate.
Quoting mrgreen
Taking profits at 1:1 is the one aspect of DIBS that I have had some trouble adjusting too and had to let it go. The reason is the following.
Trading 2 full lots.

10 trades letting profit run.
3 BE = 0
5 Losses = 2(300 X 5) = 3000
2 Wins@ 180 PIPS = 2x(180 X 20) = 7200
Profit = 7200 - 3000 = 3200

Same 10 Trades w/ taking 1 lot profit at 30 PIPS.
3 BE = 0
5 Losses = 3000
2 Wins@ 180 PIPS = 1st Lot = 300 + 300 =600
Two lots 2(180X10) = 3600
Profit = 1200

With letting your profit run you could take 6 losses and still break even.

By the very...
Mr. G, Can you provide any links, posts RE/ Daily Dibs approaches??
Much Appreciated!
P
Quoting billflet
Trouble is, this isn't a complete "system" presented here....
The system traded only to a direction of a day
I used Peters session open 1AM Eastern Time

I experimented with p target 2x the range of the inside bar and just the range of the inside bar
I also tried to change the stop to 25 pips instead of the range of the inside bar based on MAE analysis and that seemed to be the best stop as most of the winners never wend more then 25 pips to the negative

I don't thing this can be coded as quant there is always some sort of discretion needed to make it work

I will post some distribution charts when I'm done just to see if there is any hedge in this trading method
Volatility and range break outs are the most robust trading techniques so I believe there must be a way to make it work
Quoting piposterous
Mr. G, Can you provide any links, posts RE/ Daily Dibs approaches??
Much Appreciated!
P

for those interested, found the discussion here just after I posted:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=86766&page=86
I don't see where you have to use discretion. Just trade the inside bar break as stated. You win more than you lose.

http://i43.tinypic.com/2w1sj6g.gif
Brian

Discretion is used in selecting the hot hand. Your results will be better if you trade the strongest moving pairs instead of every single IB break.
The author recommends trading the hot hand for a reason. This seems to have been ignored by those who have done backtesting and reported poor results.

Did you buy that indicator? I've seen it for sale and am curious about it.

All the best
Bill
Quoting billflet
Brian

Discretion is used in selecting the hot hand. Your results will be better if you trade the strongest moving pairs instead of every single IB break.

The author recommends trading the hot hand for a reason. This seems to have been ignored by those who have done backtesting and reported poor results.

Did you buy that indicator? I've seen it for sale and am curious about it.

All the best
Bill
Yup right you are Billflet and they will continue to ignore this, and sadly too many folks seem not to understand the DIBS hot hand concept...
But, hopefully, One more will.

Then we helped.
Quoting Bemac
But, hopefully, One more will.

Then we helped.
One would hope so...
I don't get it.

Why should be care about Pit Traders?
Why do we fall? "So we can learn to pick ourselves up."
Quoting ForexDude
I don't get it.

Why should be care about Pit Traders?
That's the topic of the thread. What's to get? Either you're interested in the topic or you're not. Did someone here imply that you should care about pit traders?
I don't get your question. I'm not sure what "Why should be care.." means.
Hmmm
Without a trade plan, say bye bye to your account & hello to frustration.
Quoting ForexDude
I don't get it.

Why should be care about Pit Traders?
You should care about pit traders for the same reason you should care about pivot points...
What a great short off that inside bar this morning

Thank you, Peter.

http://i40.tinypic.com/2u94baq.gif
Quoting billflet
Brian

Discretion is used in selecting the hot hand. Your results will be better if you trade the strongest moving pairs instead of every single IB break.
The author recommends trading the hot hand for a reason. This seems to have been ignored by those who have done backtesting and reported poor results.

Did you buy that indicator? I've seen it for sale and am curious about it.

All the best
Bill
I understand about the "hot hand" that you mention, thank you. That is the reason I monitor the inside bar range statistics in real time. The statistics tell which currency pairs payoff the most. I made a donation to the indicator coder and received a batch of indicators as a thank you.

http://i42.tinypic.com/72fzwo.gif
You're right. That indicator seems like an excellent way of easily choosing the hot hand.

I don't like trading more than 3 pairs at a time. Finding the best moving pairs improves results. Don't forget to consider what is normal for the pair. For instance, we can expect the geppy to move more than the EUR/GBP. If they are moving equally (unlikely, but for sake of example), then the EUR/GBP would be the stronger pair that day.
Another thing to consider is entry. The GBP/YEN may be moving exceptionally, but depending on the bar preceding the IB, may require a huge stop which in turn requires a smaller position size and may not be the best opportunity.
So I consider:
a) the pair's movement today compared to it's normal movement
b) then compare it to other pairs (considering their normal movement as well)
c) then compare entries on the most favorable pairs.

With all that said, your indicator is an excellent place to begin.

What other functions does it have?

I just noticed the average range function. Excellent. I'm getting one.
Quoting billflet
You're right....
What other functions does it have?

The indicator tells you how many inside bars there were. In the chart, it checked the last 240 bars and there were 41 inside bars. About 1 out of 6 bars is an inside bar. Plenty of trading action. It shows the current range( green if above average) and what percent of average range the current range is.

I also use the range count to get an idea of distribution. Sometimes I'll just look at the last 24 bars instead of 240.

http://i42.tinypic.com/24g7uo5.gif

You mentioned you like the average range function so I'll post a chart of the range indicator that I use when trading.

http://i41.tinypic.com/jrpjpz.gif
Hi,

Hope to not annoy anybody with these questions.

1. Assume the following scenario:
- IB during the later part of the day (after the 9-10 hours trading period PC specified)
- after the occurrence, but before close, the IB is "used" (price breaks high and low)

Do I use this IB for trading in the new session after 6:00 GMT according to the rules? E.g. buy breakout high if above 6:00 GMT open and sell breakdown of low if below?

2. How do you use the "hot hand" with the setups not occurring simultaneously? E.g. there isn't a setup occurring simultaneously in the strong pairs of the day. It's maybe either in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd strongest but rarely in all.

Thanks

Thomas
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif
Hi guys,

how many breakouts per IB do you trade if daily close is within the bar's range? One of the high and one of the low?

Was not enough for EURUSD today - market makers having fun.
1st breakout low, second high third low and of we go... :-(

Is there a rule to avoid certain IB's at the daily open?

Which pairs did you short today?

USDCHF and GBPUSD worked fine with the second breakout of their IBs

Thanks

Thomas
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