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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #881
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:10am Feb 6, 2009 8:10am
Quoting panos69
i have found my comfort level too @ 4h -daily.some times i play breakout trades sometimes i buy during the pullback.i pay attention @round numbers and overall i use alot of discretion

I also have a secret but plz dont tell:i like very much the long tailsand dont misunderstand.Not only the pin bars...
HAHAHAHA ok..we'll keep your secret.

Always is nice to have you around here, Panos.

You' σχετικά με έναν καλό φίλο.

Hope I get it right LOL.
Peace
  • #882
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:16am Feb 6, 2009 8:16am
Quoting feb2865
HAHAHAHA ok..we'll keep your secret.

Always is nice to have you around here, Panos.

You' σχετικά με έναν καλό φίλο.

Hope I get it right LOL.
YOU COULDNT GET IT BETTER
  • #883
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:23am Feb 6, 2009 8:23am
Well, I know a little, but not enough to carry a conversation or write. I always found the greek language(and of course the culture) fascinating. I also like spanish, italian and french.

Let me try another one...this one I might have an error. I don't know how to say "you".

You' ll να είστε ο καλύτερος έμπορος στην Ελλάδα

hahahahaha...sorry for any misspelling.
Peace
  • #884
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:27am Feb 6, 2009 8:27am
Quoting feb2865
Well, I know a little, but not enough to carry a conversation or write. I always found the greek language(and of course the culture) fascinating. I also like spanish, italian and french.

Let me try another one...this one I might have an error. I don't know how to say "you".

You' ll να είστε ο καλύτερος έμπορος στην Ελλάδα

hahahahaha...sorry for any misspelling.
Εύχομαι να είσαι ο καλύτερος έμπορος στην Ελλάδα.
  • #885
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:34am Feb 6, 2009 8:34am
Quoting panos69
Εύχομαι να είσαι ο καλύτερος έμπορος στην Ελλάδα.

see, there you go..I need to learn more LOL.

Πρέπει να μάθω περισσότερους. μη εύκολος
Peace
  • #886
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:35am Feb 6, 2009 8:35am
by the way Feb when will you teach us your 30 min system?
although i believe that a scalper that is succesfull or BE @ the 5 15 30 min h can be a real killer @ the higher ones.
  • #887
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:36am Feb 6, 2009 8:36am
I can do better in spnaish (I think LOL)

Moneda es el mejor trader de cuba.

Oh I don't know how to say trader in spanish.
Peace
  • #888
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:39am Feb 6, 2009 8:39am
Quoting panos69
by the way Feb when will you teach us your 30 min system?
although i believe that a scalper that is succesfull or BE @ the 5 15 30 min h can be a real killer @ the higher ones.
I am looking at it. Need to establish ground rules but it looks promising. I am going to work it out real hard over the weekend and I will have a new thread next week. It's something I am looking for. Actually I've been trading off 30 minutes this whole week. The results are good. Now I am waiting for a reversal in nfp news. If that happens.
Peace
  • #889
  • Feb 6, 2009 8:50am Feb 6, 2009 8:50am
Feb,

You crack me up!.... Listen, in Cuba under their political system there are no individual traders so I will keep the title for now! I did not know the translation either but here is one:

Re: currency trader
Comisionista de divisas

Trader de divisas

It depends on the country

Mucha salud amigo,





Quoting feb2865
I can do better in spnaish (I think LOL)

Moneda es el mejor trader de cuba.

Oh I don't know how to say trader in spanish.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #890
  • Feb 6, 2009 9:10am Feb 6, 2009 9:10am
Quoting moneda
Feb,

You crack me up!.... Listen, in Cuba under their political system there are no individual traders so I will keep the title for now! I did not know the translation either but here is one:

Re: currency trader
Comisionista de divisas

Trader de divisas

It depends on the country

Mucha salud amigo,
Oh man, that sucks!!

well, what do you know? I know cuban gov' is strict, but no trading??

ahhh.... anyway, just showing off that I know a little Spanish LOL!!
Peace
  • #891
  • Feb 6, 2009 2:56pm Feb 6, 2009 2:56pm
listen this song and take care of your wives...
Inserted Video
  • #892
  • Feb 6, 2009 3:27pm Feb 6, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting panos69
listen this song and take care of your wives...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU1pD4xPe2M&NR=1&fmt=18
Great video


I was catching up reading posts, it's good to see you back Feb, looking forward to read your new thread! My best wishes

Scalping the tape... what can I say
  • #893
  • Feb 6, 2009 7:33pm Feb 6, 2009 7:33pm
Hi FEB,

WOW, what a great eye opener. I have got to say thanks again to you my friend. I have traded for many yrs, but you just keep giving me more wisdom to ponder.

Several months after I started trading FX I got into postion trading, or trend trading if you will & found it much less stressful, but for some reason I strayed into the shorter term trading on the 5M & 15M tf & just kinda found my groove. I think my attempt in the 1980's to trade NASDA Level II is what lured me into the shorter time frames as I found FX much eaiser than the NASDA Level II trading. I remember one day I lost $5000.00 in just under 1m & that was my sign to find another line of trading to try.

Over the weekend I will have more questions, but for now time to relax & unwind.

Thanks again for sharing you yrs of winsdom. May Peace & Good Health Be With You.

_________________________
  • #894
  • Feb 7, 2009 5:34am Feb 7, 2009 5:34am
Hi Everyone,
First I will admit to not reading the whole of this thread as to be honest I finfd that most of the entries, in any thread, don't give much value. I will however say that this is a technique that I have looked at several times, what with Elliot wave and Ross 123 its nor exatly new. I have for a number of years tried to build an automated system without any real success. What I have learnt though are a few basics. The difficulty of trading is not so much in the "getting in" but the "getting out". Its either to early or to late.

After some brief analysis of the idea that a trend is rising highs/rising lows and visa versa I would, her is the heresy, suggest that an indicator "Bollinger Bands" at 1 deviation and 55MA will assist. If price is above/below its a very good indication that a trend is established or becoming establsihed. I tried this in Friday only taking the break of a high that was above the BB and after a rising low and 3 trades made over 400 pips. Beginers luck I hear you all shout, probably, but its a start. The other indicator, more heresy, is to use fractals to show the high/low points. Not always accurate and sometimes you need to make a manual decision.

I am looking further at this as I needed to go back to basics and this has at least shown a promising start.

I have also an EA which places the trade based on a line that I draw and not an order placed. The broker can't see where I am trading. Also I can use the same for closing/stopping orders.

If my thoughts have offended anyone with the added indicators my apologies but just sharing some experineces that may work.
  • #895
  • Feb 7, 2009 6:02am Feb 7, 2009 6:02am
Hi Steve,

No offense taken by me, but I would like to add.....use Bollinger @55 EMA w/2 dev & stay long when PRICE is ABOVE the centerline & SHORT when PRICE is BELOW the centerline is another way to look for gains. This is from a 15M tf looking a yesterdays moves on the E/$. Not my way of trading, but looking back it looks good, but its all about what works for YOU as the trader. What works for me may not work for the next & THE SYSTEM II may not work for everyone either, but it is a basic system w/o indicators.

If you are looking to go back to basics, LOOK NO MORE, YOU HAVE FOUND IT. Will it work for you? Only giving it a try will reveal the answer.

You are correct, the getting out part can be the down fall of a good trade & @ times this is a problem for me.

These are just my views & not trading advice.

Thanks for your post & welcome to System II thread.

_________________________
  • #896
  • Feb 7, 2009 7:27am Feb 7, 2009 7:27am
Quoting stevecartwright
Hi Everyone,
First I will admit to not reading the whole of this thread as to be honest I finfd that most of the entries, in any thread, don't give much value. I will however say that this is a technique that I have looked at several times, what with Elliot wave and Ross 123 its nor exatly new. I have for a number of years tried to build an automated system without any real success. What I have learnt though are a few basics. The difficulty of trading is not so much in the "getting in" but the "getting out". Its either to early or to late.

After...
No offense at all Steve, your points are completely valid.

I've been playing around with almost every-single "indicator" (which is a truly generic word by the way) available. Even some of my friends have handed me "custom-made" indi's. This is all good, as I like to be open to new stuff.

My problem with indi's (this is very subjective ) is that they will go nuts every time that market change cycles. By the time they re-calculate, new conditions in the market, you're in a hole. Then, you get frustrated and the optimization process begins. Some of my friends says " But you don't trade off the indi, you must "interpret" this indi in order to trade" Well, this is all fine and dandy, but still you must have a condition to get in or out of the market. So Indi's are supposed to tell you "Trend" or "range" "oversold" "overbought" etc. The problem is...for how long?? I am not talking about today's trade ...or maybe tomorrow's...but in the long run....how this indy will perform? will it help me out in my quest for consistency?

About the trend: I really don't care. The trend is deceiving. Does anybody knows the end? Does anybody know how/when/where the trend starts?

So you have a trend in 5 minutes, then you have another one in 30 minutes...but then, daily charts have another one..... to complicate matter most, you use tick charts and 144 has another "trend"....who cares?.

When I trade, I try to be the first in line for the party, and the last one to leave.

Entries are for me, a way to "test" the market to see if that "swing" will develop or not. I have a low hit ratio, due I test the market many times. But sooner or later I'll be the first in line. That's my goal as a trader.

I use trade expectancy for exits. As I mentioned before, that's an art. I have in my mind a pre-conceived way of how the market **should** perform, or I just close the trade and wait for the next one. I give no quarters.

I manage my risk in a way that I am allowed to test the market many times during x period in order to get a runner. Using 2% per trade, as I've seen many people doing, is a recipe for disaster.


If the bolls and the 55 ema will give you this edge you're looking for, trade it to death. Just remember, when you trade, don't live dwelling in the past. Trade on the present looking at what you see, so you can be consistent on the future. Because after all my friend, is all about how many $$$$ you can pull off the market...consistently.

As today, I haven't be able to make any indi work for me.



I talk about stuff people don't like to hear. I bet a lot of them disagree with me. That's fine. After all, my ass is on the line everytime I put a trade. That's a fact. My job is simply to preserve my capital. Eventually, I'll be compensated.
Peace
  • #897
  • Feb 7, 2009 7:57am Feb 7, 2009 7:57am
Feb, excellent as always, thanks.

I have a question regarding expectancy and cutting loss short on systemII.
We know that price might do a false break of a few pips and retrace, as it might do a decent 10,15pips break and then go back to entry to make that support broken become resistance, or viceversa or just break and fly away.

I understand every trade as its own story, but in general, if the breakout bounce back in a few second to -10, -15pips or close to the 50% of a set-up's pulllback, will you consider that as a false break because of the sharp quick bounce back or would you give the trade a chance waiting for the price to break a 50% retrace before hitting the panic button?

Thanks, and take care
  • #898
  • Feb 7, 2009 8:13am Feb 7, 2009 8:13am
Quoting cesare76fx
Feb, excellent as always, thanks.

I have a question regarding expectancy and cutting loss short on systemII.
We know that price might do a false break of a few pips and retrace, as it might do a decent 10,15pips break and then go back to entry to make that support broken become resistance, or viceversa or just break and fly away.

I understand every trade as its own story, but in general, if the breakout bounce back in a few second to -10, -15pips or close to the 50% of a set-up's pulllback, will you consider that as a false break because of the...
The panic button should be on all the time.
If the market retraces back to 50% and I see (real time of course) momentum developing against my position. I am out. It's hard to say how fast/slow momentum will be, but I won't second guess.

It's all about how fast/slow the market is moving against you.

You can do it sooner than 50%, it's all about your risk tolerance. But you must remember, you're a trader. You must pull the trigger when conditions are met. So if you bail off, make sure you get on the next bus. Have your risk in check so you can take advantage of all possible trades you can get. Of course, everything has a limit, don't go overboard.

A trick of the trade: Have you ever see a candle/bar, like jumping?? The move is so fast that the bar literally jumps. If that happens against my position, oh boy....I will be out in a New York minute.
Peace
  • #899
  • Feb 7, 2009 10:26am Feb 7, 2009 10:26am
Quoting feb2865
A trick of the trade: Have you ever see a candle/bar, like jumping?? The move is so fast that the bar literally jumps. If that happens against my position, oh boy....I will be out in a New York minute.
This is exactly the kind of situation I meant, thanks again
  • #900
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:57am Feb 7, 2009 11:57am
I am pleased to see I wasn't run out of the forum for my views :-)

The only thing I would say about 50% retracement from my observations is that with the theory, yes theory, of higher highs/lows and reverse is that with a long trend the previous low shouldn't be violated, obviousle the previous high for shorts. That's where I would put my initial stop. This is why I was looking at something like BBands to give me a greater degree of trend confidence. There are some stats about 2 deviation2, something along the lines that 95% of prices are enlcosed by the bands. Not sure what 1 dev gives.

Next week I am going to try 1 hr charts with a new high/low above/below the BB and look at the 15min to refine the entry and exit conditions. I am not able to do this full time but I will see what I can post.

Quoting feb2865
The panic button should be on all the time.
If the market retraces back to 50% and I see (real time of course) momentum developing against my position. I am out. It's hard to say how fast/slow momentum will be, but I won't second guess.

It's all about how fast/slow the market is moving against you.

You can do it sooner than 50%, it's all about your risk tolerance. But you must remember, you're a trader. You must pull the trigger when conditions are met. So if you bail off, make sure you get on the next bus. Have your risk in check so you can...
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