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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #18,641
  • Feb 5, 2009 12:36pm Feb 5, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting Palmer
See the last two charts...

Price came back to the 8ema after pulling away from it. The colored bar can change during the candle if the gap value is +/- .0030. More validity to trendlines perhaps???

How can you use this:

If you see the gap on the 4hr you can monitor a lower timeframe for a long signal thinking that the 4hr gap will be closed or at least tick back up. This is aggressive trading because you are going against the longer term trend which is down. But, these gaps can last several bars so you might go nuts waiting for that long...

I dont have the nuts to go long at this moment, 1,3000 has been a strong resistance in november and the tweezer on the daily confirms that.
Before I decide to go long I have to wait for a higher high at least above the 89 and the 61.8Fib
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  • #18,642
  • Feb 5, 2009 12:46pm Feb 5, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting Pipmaniac
I dont have the nuts to go long at this moment, 1,3000 has been a strong resistance in november and the tweezer on the daily confirms that.
Before I decide to go long I have to wait for a higher high at least above the 89 and the 61.8Fib
You've got the idea about not going long unless you're looking to scalp a few to the upside on a shorter timeframe. My thinking is wait for the gap to be filled and then look for an entry back to the downside with the trend...
  • #18,643
  • Feb 5, 2009 1:20pm Feb 5, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting Palmer
You've got the idea about not going long unless you're looking to scalp a few to the upside on a shorter timeframe. My thinking is wait for the gap to be filled and then look for an entry back to the downside with the trend...
I decided to leave off the entrys on lower timeframes out. while analysing my results of the last months I noticed that the entrys which happened not at the opening of a 4H bar, I mean the agressive entrys based on the 1H charts produce much more SLs than the entrys based on the 4h. I must be more picky in the future, so I only use the 1H for a confirmation of the 4h and leave the agressive entrys off.
When the price during a trend meets a strong resistance , do you use an agressive strategy for an entry on a lower timeframe ? An example for this would be the price level of 1,4550 of G/U today and yesterday.
  • #18,644
  • Feb 5, 2009 3:37pm Feb 5, 2009 3:37pm
Nice trade wg.
How do you assess where your TP is? Whatever way, it worked well.
If I was to hazard a guess, I would say it was based on the break of the bull flag. Then using the length of the flag pole as projected target? Sorry, rushing out the door and don't have time to put a chart together - hope it makes sense.

Quoting welshguy2000
Morning All,

Its been a week of none trades for myself - I've just taken the TC on the GBP/USD

Entry: 1.4512
TP: 1.4682
SL: 1.4410

I will try and post a picture in a bit - candle formation was a strong bullish engulfing pattern which engulfed the last 4 4H candles.
  • #18,645
  • Feb 5, 2009 4:20pm Feb 5, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Morning All,

Its been a week of none trades for myself - I've just taken the TC on the GBP/USD

Entry: 1.4512
TP: 1.4682
SL: 1.4410

I will try and post a picture in a bit - candle formation was a strong bullish engulfing pattern which engulfed the last 4 4H candles.
Closed @ 1.4662 + 150pips
  • #18,646
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:02pm Feb 5, 2009 5:02pm
TQ for the Gap Indy. Palmer
Will try it out.

Regards
ohmanfx
  • #18,647
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:02pm Feb 5, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting BenStevo
Nice trade wg.
How do you assess where your TP is? Whatever way, it worked well.
If I was to hazard a guess, I would say it was based on the break of the bull flag. Then using the length of the flag pole as projected target? Sorry, rushing out the door and don't have time to put a chart together - hope it makes sense.
Evening BenStevo,

I obtained the TP from a few things, the bull flag being 1, an old trend line & the daily pivot (R2) Do you have the pivot indicator? If not I PM you the link. You can also see from the chart I have attached the trend line. I did not draw the bear flag on as it sounds like you already have that in your mind.

More often than not I use FIB extensions, so which ever fib retracement line price stops at and moves away, it a stand rule that the primary target is 3 levels away, secondary target is 4 levels away.

Any more questions please ask.
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  • #18,648
  • Feb 5, 2009 5:11pm Feb 5, 2009 5:11pm
Evening everyone,

I have decided to pass on the EUR/USD TC which has just developed. Reasons being the head & shoulders is still holding in. I will wait for a confirmation on the 1H before entering.

As you can see from the chart the rhythm is starting to develop again on this pair however its important you take into account where these signals have formed. Going short here would mean your selling at support, wait and there will be a better entry.

Any questions please ask. See attached.

P.s. Palmer good work with the new stuff - if you want help integrating it onto the site give me a message, i've got some free time this weekend.
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  • #18,649
  • Feb 5, 2009 7:20pm Feb 5, 2009 7:20pm
Quoting Pipmaniac
I decided to leave off the entrys on lower timeframes out. while analysing...
Pipmaniac:

Using the 4500 level on the GPBUSD, here's the 4hr chart. I just noticed that you used 4550 but this should be the same for an entry. When price is hitting a resistance level, or support, for a few times, then it may be time to look at a shorter timeframe. Looking at the 4hr chart, vert line 1 hits the 4500 and retreats, comes back (vert line 2) and retreats again. Now there are two areas that are using the 4500 as resistance, two is better than one = more meaning. Now, you have the 4500 number stuck in your head. I'm using Phillip's 5 min method as a shorter timeframe entry method. After the price candle retreats from vert line 2 you can start thinking that price is going to come back up there again since the overall trend on the 4hr is up.

The first 5min chart here with the 3 between the two vert lines is the range of the 4hr candle at vert line 3 as well. Since you've been wathing the 5min chart and know what to look for ( or assuming that you/we know what to look for in the 5min entry ) you can see that the first green dashed vert line gives a valid entry, as well as the second vert green line. Even there you can see how the 5min is having trouble with the 4500 line. Depending on how you trade you may have gone in with more than one lot and exited one for a few and held one at b/e so assume you're still in long here. Price finally breaks through the 4500 and runs up. Price retreats aagin, last vert green line but there is no valid signal with the MACD. This should be a warning that this coould be a failed break.

Now, your 5min method indicators are telling you that the trend is changing on that timeframe and that the 4hr 4500 level 'might' not hold the price. The 4hr does retreat (see vert line 4) and this end up being a TC signal bouncing off the 21. The last 5min chart shows the two 5min entries with price coming off the 21 on the 4hr. Price breaks through the 4500 level and holds...for now.

The thing to remember here is that you're main chart is the 4hr and to catch that trend, your stops should be according what the 4hr chart is doing, not the 5min. You're using the 5min to get in early...you're not trading the 5min.

Now, we all free to do what we want since it's our money. One way to trade this is to go in say with one 1.0 lot on the 5min and exit .7 of that lot at 10..15 pips or so on the 5min and let the other .3 ride on the 4hr with a 4hr stop....etc. Lot's of 'choices' here.

This may seem like a lot to get down, but if you have your gameplan in place and you kind of know what to 'expect' on the 4hr (price coming back to the 4500) it makes it a lot easier. Of course you have to be awake and in front of the PC during all of this but.it's all part of it.
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  • #18,650
  • Feb 5, 2009 7:22pm Feb 5, 2009 7:22pm
Thanks WG, I'll let you know. To tell you the truth I haven't even picked up the first php book yet. Just haven't sat down with it yet and it might be a little while before that happens...
  • #18,651
  • Feb 5, 2009 7:39pm Feb 5, 2009 7:39pm
Quoting Palmer
Thanks WG, I'll let you know. To tell you the truth I haven't even picked up the first php book yet. Just haven't sat down with it yet and it might be a little while before that happens...
Great explainations in your previous posts Palmer...

Anyway...I will post the USDchf later...because some expert said this pair is some kind of MIRROR IMAGE to EU. So I hope you and the others will give your opnions/comments as well...

Brb...!!!
  • #18,652
  • Feb 5, 2009 8:12pm Feb 5, 2009 8:12pm
Hi all...

Some expert said this pair is some kind of MIRROR IMAGE to EU. So, here are my analyses....

This pair began to rally from March 18 until Nov 20 last year. These two points are my fib #.

The price is currently @ 23.6% after made it rebounce @ 76.4 % on Dec 29, 2008.

Based on my d1, it seems that this pair is in the uptrend pace and will find resistance with trend line around 1.1800 region before it can go back to its previous peak on Nov 20, 2008.

Many barriers on the down side of this pair though....

Your comments/opinions are most welcome...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,653
  • Feb 5, 2009 11:54pm Feb 5, 2009 11:54pm
Hello again...

Sometime if I don't have the clue about the EU trend, I will look at its cross yen pair because over the time, many experts said this pair will influence the EU direction.

I took fib # on Aug 7 until Oct 27 last year when this pair dipped sharply. Based on my d1, obviously this pair is now in a down trend move. Perhaps this pair will give us clue about the EU direction for at least next few weeks.

Your comments/opinions are most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,654
  • Feb 6, 2009 12:41am Feb 6, 2009 12:41am
Thought I'd give this a try. I'm used to the 4 hour chart and basically trade fibs and S%R.

I noticed some times that were stated as preferred. I was wondering how important these times were, or if there was another reason to use them.

Lastly, if anyone out on the west coast trades this system, what hours or times you have had success with. Feel free to e-mail or PM me, I wouldn't mind having someone to bounce ideas off.

thanks,
Scott
  • #18,655
  • Feb 6, 2009 4:05am Feb 6, 2009 4:05am
Quoting welshguy2000
Evening BenStevo,

I obtained the TP from a few things, the bull flag being 1, an old trend line & the daily pivot (R2) Do you have the pivot indicator? If not I PM you the link. You can also see from the chart I have attached the trend line. I did not draw the bear flag on as it sounds like you already have that in your mind.

More often than not I use FIB extensions, so which ever fib retracement line price stops at and moves away, it a stand rule that the primary target is 3 levels away, secondary target is 4 levels away.

Any more questions...
hi，welshguy2000！My question are:　Could you please edit you screen shot picture by adding bull flag and old trend line & the daily pivot (R2) ? as a newcomer, I cann't find them correctly .
Could you please telling me the market rhythm which has started to develop off the 21 EMA ?
I post reply on the thread ,but I think you may not see recent time. So I email you sassy.
Thank you in advanced!
  • #18,656
  • Feb 6, 2009 5:03am Feb 6, 2009 5:03am
Quoting Palmer
Pipmaniac:

Using the 4500 level on the GPBUSD, here's the 4hr chart. I just noticed that you used 4550 but this should be the same for an entry. When price is hitting a resistance level, or support, for a few times, then it may be time to look at a shorter timeframe. Looking at the 4hr chart, vert line 1 hits the 4500 and retreats, comes back (vert line 2) and retreats again. Now there are two areas that are using the 4500 as resistance, two is better than one = more meaning. Now, you have the 4500 number stuck in your head. I'm using Phillip's...
thank you for your answer,I will do this weekend some backtesting on the 5 min to get this by heart.
  • #18,657
  • Feb 6, 2009 6:20am Feb 6, 2009 6:20am
Hi all...

Below are my h4 and h1 with the same period of time.

EU still stuck within the "triangle" and just like a time bomb before the breakout happened. Until then, for me there will be NO GO for this pair at least for now.

Goodluck for those who are trading this pair today
Have a great weekend guys....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,658
  • Feb 6, 2009 7:18am Feb 6, 2009 7:18am
The jobs numbers will more than likely move the EURUSD this morning but I still think the vote on the stimulus package will be the primer to get this pair out of the 4hr range it is stuck in...
  • #18,659
  • Feb 6, 2009 1:13pm Feb 6, 2009 1:13pm
Well, here it is....

I took two entries on a shorter timeframe while the 4hr was approaching the resistance again....see previous posts. They were both from Phillip's 5min method thread. The 1hr had a nice breakout as well on the last vertical white line if there was no time to monitor the lower timeframes. The ADX on the 1hr is just the ADX ovelayed with the colors pertainting to if the -DM is greater than the +DM or vice versa. I put the stop loss in before lunch came back and saw some groovy pips man...
Attached Images
  • #18,660
  • Feb 6, 2009 2:19pm Feb 6, 2009 2:19pm
Hello.
I took a breakout trade on the Pound at 1.4784. It broke through a strong trendline, and has retested it twice on the 1 Hour charts. I usually don't take trades late on Friday, but this one looks good.
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