Gravity goes both ways in forex...
james16 Chart Thread
- #20,502
- Feb 5, 2009 4:53am Feb 5, 2009 4:53am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #20,504
- Feb 5, 2009 4:56am Feb 5, 2009 4:56am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #20,507
- Feb 5, 2009 5:10am Feb 5, 2009 5:10am
sorry guys i dont get what your up to 1 hr or 4 hr daily or news trading.i imagine its all demo.whats the bottom line of your system do you risk the same on a lower time frame as a daily.I just cant see what u guys are looking for and didnt James say start with dailys? it all starts with dailys on the "learn price action thing" no?.Yes theres a huge space on gbp/swiss,are you saying your gonna take a lower time frame with no daily bar, counter trend and plough into that space? Same on euro/gbp will you take that 4 hr bar short 1 hr before the BOE?.Are you ready for that?Will you make a detailed 3 month study of your plan to get the win/loss rate so you can apply the risk profile your system warrents?Jim made it clear all along dailys first for years then u begin to see lower time frame trades Within the context of daily bars the other way round is trading death for the demo teams.Or is it that you have not had a consistant time of winning and your still searching?I wish you all the luck in the world but please dont be deluded by your own hope and stick to a plan,ive never seen Jim talk about this kind of stuff and if he did i missed it!
- #20,513
- Feb 5, 2009 5:53am Feb 5, 2009 5:53am
Good post Baba , I answered it as best as I could. . Your previous post is in italic, my response is in BOLD.
Big Disclaimer : I am not claiming to be a forex hero or anything, I am just talking from a mixture of my knowledge and experience.
sorry guys i dont get what your up to 1 hr or 4 hr daily or news trading.i imagine its all demo.whats the bottom line of your system do you risk the same on a lower time frame as a daily.
No sir, never the same risk on 1HR or 4HR. Depends on the setup really, if it's A+++ on 4HR it's worth 1% all day in my opinion. On the 1HR I am a .5% risk man. Anything lower is .5% too but it honestly has to be extraordinary for me to take something on the 5/15Min .
I just cant see what u guys are looking for and didnt James say start with dailys? it all starts with dailys on the "learn price action thing" no?.Yes theres a huge space on gbp/swiss,are you saying your gonna take a lower time frame with no daily bar, counter trend and plough into that space? Same on euro/gbp will you take that 4 hr bar short 1 hr before the BOE?.
I'm personally taking nothing before the BOE
Are you ready for that?Will you make a detailed 3 month study of your plan to get the win/loss rate so you can apply the risk profile your system warrents?
Already done that, my risk levels are pretty conservative in my opinion. Market dynamics change over time and I personally don't believe that we can apply any win/loss ratio in the last 3 months and do anything with that number .
The next 3 months will definately not be the same.
My own win loss ratio is pretty high, but it still doesn't justify bumping up my risk. I might go on a 24 trade losing streak starting tomorrow. Who knows ?
A question for you my friend if I may ? What are your own personal views on risk, with relation to the Daily and lower TF's (If you trade them)
Jim made it clear all along dailys first for years then u begin to see lower time frame trades
He did indeed, but I disagree with it on one point. Even on the minimum requirements page on the front, 3Months is a good period of time to be profitable in. But that thee months for Trader A where Trader A is watching maybe 30 forex pairs, Printing out Daily charts from the last 7years and studying them, backtesting, demo testing 4HR, demo testing Daily's . . . Is a lot different to Trader B who trades the Daily on demo sporadically . .
I believe the intensity and how a person approaches anything is a way more important factor than just saying "3 months" or "x amount of years"
I believe the period of time it takes to become profitable should not be set in stone because it cannot be. (Eventhough 3 months minimum is a minimum even if you were studying as if Satans whips were on your back)
Within the context of daily bars the other way round is trading death for the demo teams.Or is it that you have not had a consistant time of winning and your still searching?I wish you all the luck in the world but please dont be deluded by your own hope and stick to a plan,ive never seen Jim talk about this kind of stuff and if he did i missed it!
Hope by its very nature deludes everyone
It is inherently useless, thats what Hope is . . It's always in the future . . And never in the Now . . .
As for Jim talking about this stuff, just cast your mind back to the first few charts. They were 5MINUTE ! charts.
Price action is price action is price action. I believe if you start on the Daily's and work your way down to the 4HR and eventually (eventually) the 1HR you will be profitable with experience at the given timeframe and with the knowledge and experience you have from the higher timeframes.
The difference between intraday and Daily . . . Is intraday is forged out of just PURE hard work , PURE experience (More so than Daily) My take on the lower TF's is you are either making a killing or you are getting killed.
I don't personally live trade anything lower than 1HR most of the time . . . And 1HR trades I take are A+++ and I have solid reasons for taking them . . .
If I was honest with myself, If I started live trading ONLY the 15Min charts right this minute . . I would eventually (Eventually due to proper MM ) lose everything. Theres no way I would make a profit . . Just because I don't have the proper VAST amount of experience required to trade it.
Yeah, I enjoyed your post, and I did my best to answer it as I could . I might not be around to answer it straight away. But I will weigh back in on the debate later.
Also, apologies for the Long post
Regards,
Jig
Big Disclaimer : I am not claiming to be a forex hero or anything, I am just talking from a mixture of my knowledge and experience.
sorry guys i dont get what your up to 1 hr or 4 hr daily or news trading.i imagine its all demo.whats the bottom line of your system do you risk the same on a lower time frame as a daily.
No sir, never the same risk on 1HR or 4HR. Depends on the setup really, if it's A+++ on 4HR it's worth 1% all day in my opinion. On the 1HR I am a .5% risk man. Anything lower is .5% too but it honestly has to be extraordinary for me to take something on the 5/15Min .
I just cant see what u guys are looking for and didnt James say start with dailys? it all starts with dailys on the "learn price action thing" no?.Yes theres a huge space on gbp/swiss,are you saying your gonna take a lower time frame with no daily bar, counter trend and plough into that space? Same on euro/gbp will you take that 4 hr bar short 1 hr before the BOE?.
I'm personally taking nothing before the BOE
Are you ready for that?Will you make a detailed 3 month study of your plan to get the win/loss rate so you can apply the risk profile your system warrents?
Already done that, my risk levels are pretty conservative in my opinion. Market dynamics change over time and I personally don't believe that we can apply any win/loss ratio in the last 3 months and do anything with that number .
The next 3 months will definately not be the same.
My own win loss ratio is pretty high, but it still doesn't justify bumping up my risk. I might go on a 24 trade losing streak starting tomorrow. Who knows ?
A question for you my friend if I may ? What are your own personal views on risk, with relation to the Daily and lower TF's (If you trade them)
Jim made it clear all along dailys first for years then u begin to see lower time frame trades
He did indeed, but I disagree with it on one point. Even on the minimum requirements page on the front, 3Months is a good period of time to be profitable in. But that thee months for Trader A where Trader A is watching maybe 30 forex pairs, Printing out Daily charts from the last 7years and studying them, backtesting, demo testing 4HR, demo testing Daily's . . . Is a lot different to Trader B who trades the Daily on demo sporadically . .
I believe the intensity and how a person approaches anything is a way more important factor than just saying "3 months" or "x amount of years"
I believe the period of time it takes to become profitable should not be set in stone because it cannot be. (Eventhough 3 months minimum is a minimum even if you were studying as if Satans whips were on your back)
Within the context of daily bars the other way round is trading death for the demo teams.Or is it that you have not had a consistant time of winning and your still searching?I wish you all the luck in the world but please dont be deluded by your own hope and stick to a plan,ive never seen Jim talk about this kind of stuff and if he did i missed it!
Hope by its very nature deludes everyone
It is inherently useless, thats what Hope is . . It's always in the future . . And never in the Now . . .
As for Jim talking about this stuff, just cast your mind back to the first few charts. They were 5MINUTE ! charts.
Price action is price action is price action. I believe if you start on the Daily's and work your way down to the 4HR and eventually (eventually) the 1HR you will be profitable with experience at the given timeframe and with the knowledge and experience you have from the higher timeframes.
The difference between intraday and Daily . . . Is intraday is forged out of just PURE hard work , PURE experience (More so than Daily) My take on the lower TF's is you are either making a killing or you are getting killed.
I don't personally live trade anything lower than 1HR most of the time . . . And 1HR trades I take are A+++ and I have solid reasons for taking them . . .
If I was honest with myself, If I started live trading ONLY the 15Min charts right this minute . . I would eventually (Eventually due to proper MM
) lose everything. Theres no way I would make a profit . . Just because I don't have the proper VAST amount of experience required to trade it. Yeah, I enjoyed your post, and I did my best to answer it as I could
. I might not be around to answer it straight away. But I will weigh back in on the debate later.Also, apologies for the Long post
Regards,
Jig
- #20,517
- Feb 5, 2009 6:18am Feb 5, 2009 6:18am
I'm just trying to figure out how James16 means for us to trade starting out.
Josh
Actually, just the best thing EVER. THE BEST THING EVER !
Words do not flow from my brain to describe just HOW GOOD it is to do this.
1) Open Metatrader
2) Start a few years ago on any given pair, and just skip to the next bar. And again . Open another pair. Plot the major round numbers. Skip on again and again. And over . . .
Right so you have a pin bar, where is it, where is it going to go, what is happening here ? Then press F12. . What do you know, it did EXACTLY what it said it was going to do.
Builds confidence in yourself and in J16 price action, Its no good that James16 himself has confidence in the system, it's no good that Mike has confidence in the system etc. Those guys know it works. But theres a difference between when a trader "thinks" it works, and "knows" (from experience) that it works.
That difference is the difference between pulling the trigger on a winner and a loser . . .
EDIT - Just my experience. Also apologies for the long post, BOE cut lol
sorry, I really dont know whats BOE- #20,519
- Feb 5, 2009 6:26am Feb 5, 2009 6:26am
Fully agree with you Jig....
I was about to reply to your GBP/JPY setup last night and I literally just did not have time.
Your analysis was spot on, and everything you said was fine. But I saw that bar last night and it was a no trade for me all day long. I have long bias with recent price action and with the recent GBP vs LFX action that I have been seeing yes indeed . . but still . . .
And if you went long from that Daily you might well get a winner. But you have to ask yourself if you had money on the line would you trade it, especially considering the idea of "sniping" trades we have in this thread.
Lol with regards to the Daily TF's yeah the Daily's have been slow lately to be honest with a lack of good setups . . But hey . Not having a position is a position in my opinion as well, when everyone else is getting slaughtered on the 15Min like many were on Cable in particular in the last 2 weeks. We are sitting happy with out Capital intact
Regards,
Jig