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THV system, final edition

  • #4,881
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:44pm Feb 4, 2009 8:44pm
Quoting doblece
H1 and H4 as well.
If that H&S gets confirmed (break of the neckline) we may see 1.25xx like my friend Bemac was prognosting since a week.
  • #4,882
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:55pm Feb 4, 2009 8:55pm
ok. will it be a good time to trade tonight? or will it be too volitile. two banks are going to give their rates. England is going to cut rates. not good for the pound, but what about the euro? also ecb will leave rates the same. The h&s setup. is that the way they are pricing it in?

also will the eur/gbp go to 1.00?

I'm only looking for shorts tonight unless i see a clear bottom.
  • #4,883
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:56pm Feb 4, 2009 8:56pm
Quoting sundowner
Hi Doblece,

I notice that you and Cobra have chosen different opening times for the pivot indicator, yours being 17:00 NY time....
Hi!
For me it's more logical to start the day when Forex day "officially" starts at Sydney through NY close (5pm EST), in fact IMO it doesn't matter much as in the end, you won't have more than 24 hours in a daily candle...

The pivot indicator is based on the High-Low and Close Price of the daily candle (calculated in respect of every different set of settings, based on 24 sequential hourly candles), which will show differently on each platform according to its own timezone.

The "daily session" comprises the whole day (all the markets involved) and personally I don't think that a 2 hours difference can make much noise, unless there's a huge move at the end of the day (NY "close") and even then I don't think it would matter because it would be compensated by the hours not taken from the previous day...

In fact, Cobra's settings start at GMT 00:00 (8 hours before the London session), maybe it's a more normalized time where more people calculate the pivots (we would have to know how many brokers start the day with GMT 00:00) mine starts with Sydney session 2 hours earlier, as it seems more logical to me being that most markets open on Sunday at Sydney open and close on Fridays at NY close. Cobra starts at Tokyo.
Some other people may like to base the close/open of the daily candle on the NYSE close at 4pmEST.

The more people uses the same setting, the more probabilities there will be for a pivot price to become predictable... it works like the fibs.

As I see pivots more as a range level (or zone) than a particular exact price (and I prefer to take into account the psych levels anyway) it doesn't bother me much if my pivot is 5 pips up or 5 pips down (as anyway prices between brokers differ sometimes for as much as 10 or more pips, and in some there can be huge spikes that don't show on the others, etc... this in respect to HH and LL)... so... it's really relative, and real support/resistances which can be seen on the charts at the levels the price went and bounced back are for me more accurate.

Same as for fibs, it is impossible to calculate prices to the pip because of all of the above, you can easily take a look at several sites who show the daily pivots and there will be differences among them too.

The idea here has been to normalize the levels so everybody is seeing the same, but for this also (and even between two same broker's demo accounts you can have 1 to 5 pips differences sometimes!) everybody would have to be using the same MT4 demo platform (live accounts may have bigger differences depending on the account type and such... or the lag on the price feed, etc...).

Hope it helps.
  • #4,884
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:02pm Feb 4, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting cobraforex
If that H&S gets confirmed (break of the neckline) we may see 1.25xx like my friend Bemac was prognosting since a week.
Do you wait for a retest of the break with a H&S?
  • #4,885
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:07pm Feb 4, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting TradeWell
Do you wait for a retest of the break with a H&S?
(Shh... don't wake up that giant yet...)

I personally wouldn't. But there's always a retest (on short TFs especially)! so it makes for a better entry...
  • #4,886
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:16pm Feb 4, 2009 9:16pm
Quoting doblece
(Shh... don't wake up that giant yet...)
Sshhh - - be vewwry, vewwry qwwuiet -
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #4,887
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:16pm Feb 4, 2009 9:16pm
The reason why I use GMT 0 is that I trade the London session, the session where most money get moved, those big traders use their time to calculate their pivots.

Here an example from this afternoon, I wanted to post that trade but forgot about it, short after it dropped about 30 pips that I cashed.

The 5M showed divergence at that moment

Look how exactly the pivots are working.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pivot1m.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #4,888
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:18pm Feb 4, 2009 9:18pm
I dont want to go offtopic,But I wonder does any body trade EUR/GBP? Seems to be too volatile, even the spreads seems high, got my finger burnt today on that, not much but still(spread of 5, did made a difference ). However I did recover the loss with trades in E/U and at end of day I am break even. Another lesson learnt for the day, dont touch a pair you cannot handle

Thanks
  • #4,889
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:21pm Feb 4, 2009 9:21pm
Quoting karun
Another lesson learnt for the day, dont touch a pair you cannot handle

Thanks
  • #4,890
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:24pm Feb 4, 2009 9:24pm
seems like a bottle neck. sitting on the sidelines now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: temp4.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #4,891
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:25pm Feb 4, 2009 9:25pm
I would normally set up 5 pips below the .2800 for the break, how much room do you guys (and gal) give it?
  • #4,892
  • Edited 9:36pm Feb 4, 2009 9:26pm | Edited 9:36pm
well, I guess I was correct this time on the H&S too bad I was out of town today and didn't trade at all, I see there were lots of good setups...trix divergence seems to do very well in 15M well, it's 1:23 AM here and I'm going to bed, no reason to trade asian session now, I would probably die of boredom before I could grab any pips good night everybody! hope you are all doing well with THV
  • #4,893
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:27pm Feb 4, 2009 9:27pm
I love me some Bemac, but the Gofer has come out of the hole and I see........................2329 retest of low! However, I will trade it up and down on the THV3!

THV3= ATM ( automated teller machine for understanding impaired)
  • #4,894
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:29pm Feb 4, 2009 9:29pm
So many heads, so many answers...

Quote
The best time for calculating pivot points is known to be midnight to midnight Eastern time. However you may also use 5:00pm to 5:00pm EST to calculate pivot points.
http://forexbeginners.net/pivots/calculate-pivot-points

That's a new one to add (00:00 EST)


Quote
The pivot point and associated support and resistance levels are calculated by using the last trading session’s open, high, low, and close. Since Forex is a 24-hour market, most traders use the New York closing time of 4:00pm EST as the previous day’s close.
http://www.babypips.com/school/how_t...ot_points.html

Now the question is: are they referring to DST? or NYSE close?


Someone on Yahoo Answers:

Quote
You just need to calculate daily pivots once a day. The best time to do it really depends on your strategy. If you start trading for example at 8am EST, you can calculate yesterdays pivots at this time.
The only important thing is to calculate pivots after the rollover period on your broker.
On a blog:

Quote
What time do you calculate daily pivot points in forex?

So much confusion, is it at 12 am EST or at 5 PM EST? When do most people do it and which times are the best to calculate pivots? You just need to calculate daily pivots once a day. The best time to do it really depends on your strategy. If you start trading for example at 8am EST, you can calculate yesterdays pivots at this time. The only important thing is to calculate pivots after the rollover period on your broker. Pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors...
http://forex-question-09.blogspot.co...ily-pivot.html

Another one for the list (8:00 AM EST)

Take your pick! I'll stick with 5pmEST.
  • #4,895
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:31pm Feb 4, 2009 9:31pm
Quoting rogueforex
I would normally set up 5 pips below the .2800 for the break, how much room do you guys (and gal) give it?
I'm not sure it's enough to cover a false breakout. Of course a very tight stop would reduce risk of drawdown. I myself might wait for a retest. I guess it depends on PA and when the break might occur.
  • #4,896
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:06pm Feb 4, 2009 10:06pm
It would seem the potential for a 'perfect storm' may be upon us in the next 8 - 36 hours. As has been mentioned there is a significant technical pattern that has developed on the e/u that can be plainly seen on the 1 and 4 hour charts. There is also some significant fundamental data releases during the mid to late Euro session then early US session. We must also be aware of some non-data news releases pertaining to the EC's choices in regards to dealing with some eastern European currencies and debt; ie. Russia (Sorros is claiming this is a make or break for the euro as a currency - ah for another thread).
I hope I'm not too far off topic for the thread here, since all this external info affects most all of the currencies many of us trade on this thread, I thought, I'd pause and give folks a heads up. Most, I understand, will already be aware and prepared - but, for some of the newbies looking around for the first time - heads up - awareness of what's going on in the forest to harvest the tree is critical for success.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #4,897
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:20pm Feb 4, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting SeerEye
It would seem the potential for a 'perfect storm' may be upon us in the next 8 - 36 hours. As has been mentioned there is a significant technical pattern that has developed on the e/u that can be plainly seen on the 1 and 4 hour charts. There is also some significant fundamental data releases during the mid to late Euro session then early US session. We must also be aware of some non-data news releases pertaining to the EC's choices in regards to dealing with some eastern European currencies and debt; ie. Russia (Sorros is claiming this is a make...
Soros is a pud! but I will trade the moves of his belly-button lint if it shows up on my chart!
Remember, if you are going to mix funkymentals with technical, you may find yourself develop a bias and not trading the chart. This is only my opinion.

We read about the news, the Big Boys make the news, so what we gonna trade?
  • #4,898
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:22pm Feb 4, 2009 10:22pm
Quoting SeerEye
It would seem the potential for a 'perfect storm' .
yep, it looks like the quiet before the storm.

fasten your seatbelts folks.
  • #4,899
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:25pm Feb 4, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting Der05
Agree, i am cmoing from FX 50 on 1MTF......that helps me to see the merit of this system...

I am trying to practice 5 min now.....Especially keeps all the sideways out,
Hey

in no way I was saying you should remove anything or that you are confusing us. I found it to be easier to use 1 system at a time and the simplicity that THV team put in v3 makes it so simple - its amazing. Just wanted to share my opinion.
  • #4,900
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:26pm Feb 4, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
We read about the news, the Big Boys make the news, so what we gonna trade?
We gunna trade the THV - is what we gunna trade.

I think my overall point was - what Cobra said - '"strap on your seatbelts;" I'll add: "put your trays in the upright position; 'cause this plane is about to take off"

When you have funkies and techies colliding at once - life can very vewrry, vewrry good!!!!!!!!
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
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