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XXX Confluence Scalping Method

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 3, 2009 5:22pm Feb 4, 2009 7:52pm | Edited May 3, 2009 5:22pm
My name is Caleb S. and I have been a profitable trader for 8 months thanks to Jacko, the James16 group, Billy Ray Valentine, and Roland Campbell, all of whom I found here on ForexFactory. I owe much to this forum, as I have gone from being a losing trader to making over 40% on my account in the last 8 months with the mentoring of the professional traders I met here. It can be done and I have done it. I have decided to share some of the my charts in real time as the trades are happening in the market for your education and benefit.

Advice to new traders who want to make money:

-Avoid the indicators. They are a distraction and they WILL destroy you and your account as well as take way too much time to act upon.
-Trade the four hour chart as your base chart. That's what the money is looking at.
-Look for OBVIOUS setups. The more eyes that are on a level, the more likely it is to be reactive.
-Price action is king. Read the first 40 or so pages of the James16 thread and/or spend a couple months+ at his private forum.
-Know where the stops and limits are in the market you are trading. That is what moves price.

I will be posting my charts in real time, but I won't post my entries and exits here. Sorry, not everything is free in life. You will have to work at learning this stuff and I wouldn't be doing you a favor in the long run if I gave you everything. (Who is John Galt?) Plus, there are legal ramifications....

Ready? Let's learn to trade and make some money.
  • #2
  • Feb 4, 2009 7:57pm Feb 4, 2009 7:57pm
Ask yourself, "Where is the money in this market? Where would the most people be looking to go long/short? Where are the stop orders? The limit orders? What is OBVIOUS to everyone?"

These places are what we are looking for. We want either two GOOD reasons to trade a level, or three OK reasons to trade a level, and the closer together the places are, the better. Here is an example:

Notice how the 50% fib level and the monthly pivot level are EXACTLY the same! This trade suffered a drawdown of 1 pip + spread and ran for over 100 pips. This happens more often than you think, and is very high probability.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad scalp.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cad scalp 2.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #3
  • Feb 4, 2009 7:59pm Feb 4, 2009 7:59pm
Quoting hxcjf
My name is Caleb S. and I have been a profitable trader for 8 months thanks to Jacko, the James16 group, Billy Ray Valentine, and Roland Campbell, all of whom I found here on ForexFactory....
I will be posting my charts in real time, but I won't post my entries and exits here. Sorry, not everything is free in life. -----> SO NO NEED TO POST HERE ANYWAY. IT'S A PLACE TO SHARE NOT TO SALE
  • #4
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:11pm Feb 4, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting hxcjf
-Price action is king. Read the James16 thread.

I will be posting my charts in real time, but I won't post my entries and exits here. Sorry, not everything is free in life. You will have to work at learning this stuff and I wouldn't be doing you a favor.

Ready? Let's learn to trade and make some money.


No entries, no exits . In other words, no trade management. That's interesting.

Oh, please stop right there. The guy is sending all of you to the James16 thread. So the obvious is, why should we bother to be here in the first place?

"WORK AND LEARNING THIS STUFF" "NOT EVERYTHING IS FREE IN LIFE"

Are you thinking about selling your "system"?

Hey dude, your intentions are good. But you came out a little harsh. Sending people to other threads to learn "price action" (in my opinion those threads you mentioned don't define what "actual" price action is) is another step backwards.
  • #5
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:16pm Feb 4, 2009 8:16pm
You're talking about trashing indicators, but your charts are full of it.

Another interesting point.
  • #6
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:18pm Feb 4, 2009 8:18pm
Here is the setup on my chart:

AutoPivot with Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot levels
ATR 50
Inside bar indicator
Price action indicator

We are looking for a confluence of 4 hr+ Fibonacci levels, pivots, and pivot zones (S/R levels). The closer they are together, the better. If its a little fuzzy, we can look for price action or pass on the trades.

If they are close together, I will fade the level using a stop that is a function of the ATR and a profit target based on market conditions and S/R levels.

Why don't we learn together? Let's post charts of confluence we see in the seven major pairs so we don't overlook any opportunities to profit. Crosses don't matter as much because there aren't as many eyes on those.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ###Auto Pivot.mq4   15 KB | 1,356 downloads
File Type: mq4 DIBSv1.0.mq4   5 KB | 1,469 downloads
File Type: mq4 VM_Price_Action_1[1].2.mq4   22 KB | 1,604 downloads
  • #7
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:21pm Feb 4, 2009 8:21pm
Why sell anything? The market pays me.

If you don't want to learn, fine. I am not here to recommend price action and confluence. I'm here to PROVE it. I risk 1-3% per trade depending on the time frame. I will not call trades in real time, only levels and charts and their subsequent reaction. There are also legal reasons why I cannot give entries and exits.
  • #8
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:28pm Feb 4, 2009 8:28pm
Another scalp I took. This had a 12 pip drawdown and a 60 pip payout. Notice the pivots all together with the Fib levels and S/R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj scalp #2.jpg Size: 142 KB
  • #9
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:32pm Feb 4, 2009 8:32pm
Quoting hxcjf
Why sell anything? The market pays me.

If you don't want to learn, fine. I am not here to recommend price action and confluence. I'm here to PROVE it. I risk 1-3% per trade depending on the time frame. I will not call trades in real time, only levels and charts and their subsequent reaction. There are also legal reasons why I cannot give entries and exits.
So if you need to prove it, then what's the reason of opening up a thread on the first place? Looking to get vindicated?

The legal reason is at the event of giving out signals like trading recommendations. But you can point out possible hindsight entries and exits in order to demonstrate your system. Nothing wrong with that. So, if you're not going to call trades in real time, you're good to go, legalwise.

I think you started this thread with the wrong foot. If you're cheerleading Jacko and James, why the people will follow your "prove" in the first place?

They'll be better off following Jacko and James (free) threads.

Don't you think?
  • #10
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:33pm Feb 4, 2009 8:33pm
Lets not forget the pound. A scalp I took off the confluence of the 38.2% fib on the 4 hr chart and the prior low. Drawdown, 30 pips, payout, 88 pips. The more eyes on a level, the more it will react. Note where price stopped on the second chart after I took profit.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pound scalp.jpg Size: 164 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: pound scalp profit reason.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #11
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:39pm Feb 4, 2009 8:39pm
Quoting wiztrader
So if you need to prove it, then what's the reason of opening up a thread on the first place? Looking to get vindicated?

The legal reason is at the event of giving out signals...
We have different methods. I trade with targets, and I'm looking to scalp long term S/R rather than ride them. I ride them too sometimes, but I am just posting scalps here. I am simply trying to reinforce the principles of market mechanics to newer traders who could be swayed by deceitful fancy looking indicator systems that ultimately fail. I also want other people to post charts because sometimes I miss setups that other people might see and vice versa. Sort of a think tank.
  • #12
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:53pm Feb 4, 2009 8:53pm
Quoting hxcjf
We have different methods. I trade with targets, and I'm looking to scalp long term S/R rather than ride them. I ride them too sometimes, but I am just posting scalps here. I am simply trying to reinforce the principles of market mechanics to newer traders who could be swayed by deceitful fancy looking indicator systems that ultimately fail. I also want other people to post charts because sometimes I miss setups that other people might see and vice versa. Sort of a think tank.
Ok that's nice I think this thread should be moved to interactive trading. when you post here, people have the idea of getting the whole trading system.

Doing that, you'll avoid getting caught up in misunderstandings.
  • #13
  • Feb 4, 2009 8:57pm Feb 4, 2009 8:57pm
Hmm, that could work...maybe the moderator will move it.
  • #14
  • Feb 5, 2009 1:52pm Feb 5, 2009 1:52pm
hxcif are you using some type of auto fib indicator or just using the fib tool manually?

thx,
todd
  • #15
  • Feb 5, 2009 7:02pm Feb 5, 2009 7:02pm
Quoting todd960960
hxcif are you using some type of auto fib indicator or just using the fib tool manually?

thx,
todd
No, I just take the most recent substantial move on the four hour chart and draw a fib level there. 50% is the strongest, but other two can be used with strong confluence.
  • #16
  • Feb 5, 2009 7:04pm Feb 5, 2009 7:04pm
I see a great scalp opportunity in the USDJPY tonight. If the yen should fall to the confluence of the 61.8%, prior resistance, and round number level at 90.00 before tomorrow's NFP, I will scalp it there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy scalp.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #17
  • Feb 5, 2009 9:12pm Feb 5, 2009 9:12pm
I hate these, Read 3000 pages of someone else s thread to get what I am trying to convey. If people can't or won't explain their system completely, why bother?
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #18
  • Feb 9, 2009 8:18am Feb 9, 2009 8:18am
I scalped the 38.2%/weekly pivot area of 91.00 for some fast pips last night...eyeing the monthly 50% area...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy scalp.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #19
  • Feb 10, 2009 8:50pm Feb 10, 2009 8:50pm
I pulled the order ahead of the bailout news, but had I left it in it would have given me a cool 40 pips. I had my entry set at 90.60.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy scalp 2.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #20
  • Feb 12, 2009 6:15am Feb 12, 2009 6:15am
I'm seeing a tremendous straddle opportunity in the Euro right now that only happens once or twice a year. It is in major consolidation ahead of the bailout vote, including a daily inside bar yesterday. I have no idea which way it will break, but when it does, it will be BIG, it will move HARD and EVERYONE will see it. I don't know which direction because logic isn't moving the market right now. Only pure, primal fear. The euro has a tendency to go on long tears without much retracement and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened after consolidation like this. My entries are outside this week's range with a stop behind the weekly pivot.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurostraddledaily.jpg Size: 132 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurostraddle4hr.jpg Size: 128 KB
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