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Psiholog's EUR/USD trading style

  • #121
  • Feb 3, 2009 1:58pm Feb 3, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting TradeWell
If the H4 channel in vulture's post is broken, you may be right.
From what i see, by the time the 4h tunnel is broken, the neck line will be on the verge to be broken. Conclusion: that will give us a very strong signal up, and might as well be the breakout to wait for, if it was to happen.
  • #122
  • Feb 3, 2009 2:17pm Feb 3, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting psiholog
Money Management
Thirdly and last, position size. Position size is relative to account size. A simple rule of thumb, for every 2000dollars in account, pip size increases by 1dollar. So if at 1000 dollars you do 1dollar pips, at 2000 you do 2dollar pips but then you wont do 3 dollar pips until 4000 and 4 dollar pips until 6000. Do not ask me for how i would do things past 10000 as i have never been there. I am 22 after all and have started with little money and am trying to accomplish the highly improbably, rags to riches.
My money management is:

Pip Value = Account size/5000

Therefore, if I have 100,000 in the account, that would be $20 per pip.

Thanks for your input mate, your time is valuable, everybody eppreciates it.
Probability Professor
  • #123
  • Feb 3, 2009 2:18pm Feb 3, 2009 2:18pm
after having analyzed the bigger picture myself...what i see is scary to think about haha. as i have been short biased for a long time now, this definetely changes my perspective.


The upper wall started at 1.47 would be broken around 1.3100. If we do break it, a massive W bottom could potentially develop with the neckline around 1.3300. If that point is reached, and broken, we got enough room to go up another 600pips (the distance from the neckline to the lowest point of the second head) which would put us right back at 1.3900. The only barrier left to stop all this from happening is the current levels with strong resistance at 1.3060. We dont break that value, new lows are awaiting us. I thought it would be a quiet month after december and january but it seems insane volatility will continue

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #124
  • Feb 3, 2009 2:28pm Feb 3, 2009 2:28pm
Waiting for 5min candle to close in the direction of buy and I shall take a long position.
  • #125
  • Feb 3, 2009 2:33pm Feb 3, 2009 2:33pm
I wonder if it will break 3050
  • #126
  • Feb 3, 2009 2:37pm Feb 3, 2009 2:37pm
Congrats Psiholog on the opening of your thread. I have read enough of it, plus your other posts, to know that this is going to be a killer for good information! I look forward to reading your thread; already subscribed.

Good trading to you Psi.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #127
  • Feb 3, 2009 3:23pm Feb 3, 2009 3:23pm
Quoting psiholog
after having analyzed the bigger picture myself...what i see is scary to think about haha. as i have been short biased for a long time now, this definetely changes my perspective.


The upper wall started at 1.47 would be broken around 1.3100. If we do break it, a massive W bottom could potentially develop with the neckline around 1.3300. If that point is reached, and broken, we got enough room to go up another 600pips (the distance from the neckline to the lowest point of the second head) which would put us right back at 1.3900. The only barrier...

Hi psiholog,

Sorry to ask this question, but I'm having problems to see your 'massive W' formation. Could you please be a little more specific where it is beeing formed?

Thanks,

/H
  • #128
  • Feb 3, 2009 3:58pm Feb 3, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting Hct1
Hi psiholog,

Sorry to ask this question, but I'm having problems to see your 'massive W' formation. Could you please be a little more specific where it is beeing formed?

Thanks,

/H

hope this chart shows what im seeying clearly. note that an M or W is usually a double top or double bottom but considering the volatile markets were experience since mid last year this does fit the profile if and only if 1.3060 is broken as well as the bigger downtrend started at 1.47. note that the red arrows mark a bounce off the neckline and a return to 1.3060 which would constitute a retest of the downtrend on the larger timeframes and then followed by a continuation up. For now, 1.3060 is the battle ground, its either a really good sell or a really good buy, up to you to determine. Personally, I'm holding onto my short bias for now.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #129
  • Feb 3, 2009 6:23pm Feb 3, 2009 6:23pm
about time this took a little trip south. finally made back all that i lost earlier and made a gain. closed 2/3rds my position for 60pips gain, the other 1/3rd letting ride for 100pips more to what is the lower wall of this uptrend started sunday, stop loss at entry. finally figured out current pa, we had a sharper uptrend today within the bigger uptrend started sunday and now we have reached the lower wall of todays uptrend (which is why i partially closed position). I still think were headed nowhere but south with new lows in sight over the next few weeks but pa will determine all. Right now, were more if in a consolidation area at this weeks high and we can still go either way. Good pipping all.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #130
  • Feb 3, 2009 7:16pm Feb 3, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting psiholog
about time this took a little trip south. finally made back all that i lost earlier and made a gain. closed 2/3rds my position for 60pips gain, the other 1/3rd letting ride for 100pips more to what is the lower wall of this uptrend started sunday, stop loss at entry. finally figured out current pa, we had a sharper uptrend today within the bigger uptrend started sunday and now we have reached the lower wall of todays uptrend (which is why i partially closed position). I still think were headed nowhere but south with new lows in sight over the next...
I was in at 3030, and got out way too early. This kind of trading is different for me. I usually hold positions for minutes, not hours. I need a different mindset when trading this way.
  • #131
  • Feb 3, 2009 7:42pm Feb 3, 2009 7:42pm
Quoting TradeWell
I was in at 3030, and got out way too early. This kind of trading is different for me. I usually hold positions for minutes, not hours. I need a different mindset when trading this way.

I draw line at M5 after 2 spike.

Now collecting pip if the wall is not break. today could be bearish and nightime bullish.

thanks
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  • #132
  • Feb 3, 2009 8:28pm Feb 3, 2009 8:28pm
Perhaps a new channel?
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  • #133
  • Feb 3, 2009 9:30pm Feb 3, 2009 9:30pm
Quoting TradeWell
Perhaps a new channel?
interesting perspective..could be. the way i see it is we are in a range between the low at 1.2940 or so after we broke 1.2915 to the upside and strong resistance is at the current high. to keep it simple...a break of that range will indicate further direction. sometimes the best channel is the two levels of support/resistance that pa is bouncing off of. I will admit, this week has been extremely hard to understand correctly, including the news, the correlations to the stock market, to oil, price action in general, just one big mess haha.


btw...im glad you mentioned mindset. thats why i had that huge post on it. this method is all about it...a clear head to understand pa correctly and being patient enough to see a trade play out. a trade can last 1minute or 1day with this method...its all about adjusting to the situation
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #134
  • Feb 4, 2009 12:21am Feb 4, 2009 12:21am
Quoting psiholog
hope this chart shows what im seeying clearly. note that an M or W is usually a double top or double bottom but considering the volatile markets were experience since mid last year this does fit the profile if and only if 1.3060 is broken as well as the bigger downtrend started at 1.47. note that the red arrows mark a bounce off the neckline and a return to 1.3060 which would constitute a retest of the downtrend on the larger timeframes and then followed by a continuation up. For now, 1.3060 is the battle ground, its either a really good sell or...
Thanks, now it makes sense and it's clear where you see it. I need to spend some more time studying these patterns.

/H
  • #135
  • Feb 4, 2009 3:16am Feb 4, 2009 3:16am
Quoting Hct1
Thanks, now it makes sense and it's clear where you see it. I need to spend some more time studying these patterns.

/H

It look now it go down. i think it will go the yesterday low. but still monitoring the wave.

thanks a lots
  • #136
  • Feb 4, 2009 11:44am Feb 4, 2009 11:44am
My latest channel. Even though there was a large drop during the London session, I still see us in a short-term upward channel. Long-term is still down, but direction from this point is very unclear to me.
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  • #137
  • Feb 4, 2009 3:59pm Feb 4, 2009 3:59pm
Daily Chart - Feb 4, 2009
I agree - It is unclear where PA will take us next.
The Wedge played out and broke upwards with a big Green candle but was unsuccessful to go higher than the high of Jan 18.
The long term Major trendline slanting down in Blue is still intact.
Today's Red Candle...clearly shows sellers were in control today. This shows a continued bearish momentum.

If it breaks the small upward channel (in blue lines) then the lower target would be around 2600...

If the major trenline is broken with the resistance would be around 3300's.
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  • #138
  • Feb 4, 2009 4:03pm Feb 4, 2009 4:03pm
From what I can see guys the bounce back around 2800 was possibly due to unemployed for USD which kinda stopped out downward move but I think we are looking to go down more but, would wait till we close below 850-830.



Sean


I would say sell around 2900. IMHO
  • #139
  • Edited 6:25pm Feb 4, 2009 5:29pm | Edited 6:25pm
PA has formed a descending wedge and followed the LTL of the channel I drew earlier. Something tells me it wants to bust through that line for a big drop. However, I can't rule out a return to the UTL. In typical psi teaching, I'll wait to see if the lower wall breaks, then retests. Only then will I go short. I'm not feeling like playing the long side, but it could move that direction and move to the upper wall (or the red trendline I drew). It may take until London session for it to play out. In the meantime, maybe just some meandering.

EDIT: Correction, it is more of a triangle than a descending wedge.
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  • #140
  • Feb 4, 2009 7:49pm Feb 4, 2009 7:49pm
Quoting TradeWell
EDIT: Correction, it is more of a triangle than a descending wedge.
Compare both patterns that I have circled, remembering the fractal nature of all waves. For me, it's exactly the same, though smaller.
To ponder...
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