im trying to figure out why your upper wall of the larger descending channel is different then mine.,,,
- #81
- Feb 2, 2009 5:37pm Feb 2, 2009 5:37pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
- #84
- Feb 2, 2009 10:05pm Feb 2, 2009 10:05pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
well well well. we broke the downtrend we were in (during asian session too which was not expected). It seems like the bottom rounded out to form a potential cup and handle at the lows (usually these develop in uptrends right?..dont ask haha). Methods of play right now, do nothing. The uptrend started at the low is very much intact and the middle wall is currently being tested. Possible entries will be on either a retest of the upper wall of the downtrend we just broke or a possibly short entry at the upper wall if reached (risky). Strong horizontal resistance is at the psychological 1.3000 area which coincides with the upper wall of this uptrend and further followed by 1.3060 which was previous strong support. I hold a short bias at this time so i am hesitant to buy, instead looking for nice shorting opportunities. Good pipping all.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #85
- Feb 2, 2009 10:09pm Feb 2, 2009 10:09pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
- #86
- Feb 2, 2009 10:15pm Feb 2, 2009 10:15pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #87
- Feb 2, 2009 10:28pm Feb 2, 2009 10:28pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
...were either both wrong or right in our perceptions,....
- #88
- Feb 2, 2009 10:41pm Feb 2, 2009 10:41pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
my previous chart on a 15min timeframe. Note that my entry short was after the bounce off the middle wall. This is based on the gut feeling that there is no steam to go any higher (M reversal pattern) however if we break the current high again...here comes 1.3000 and my stop loss being hit. Also note that I have only left the strong horizontal support/resistance which is closest to current levels (from now on thats all I will post, teaching purposes finished). I may have jumped the gun here (the assumption that we will break this uptrend to the downside)...ah well...cant win them all.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #89
- Edited 11:31pm Feb 2, 2009 10:57pm | Edited 11:31pm
To me you still have a great edge because you have drawn tons of these and, even more importantly, you know how to "play" them. I haven't so much. I can draw pretty pictures but can I make pips?
most importantly - not to loose themspeaking of witch:
with one pair on display this thread gives rear opportunity to flow system, entries en exits as they develop (as we all know: later-on charts look differently, and our decisions - its always recommended to have a screenshot of trades made refresh in memory why we made such decision and what was the idea)
p.s. and this benefit everybody in this forum (always good to have one more solid system in your arsenal) especially if you trading with several strategies - in the end you closing everything off, opening clear charts and like : "ok, now let's see what's going on without all this stuff" : )))
- #90
- Feb 2, 2009 11:08pm Feb 2, 2009 11:08pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
speaking of wich:
with one pair on display this thread gives rear opportunity to folow system, entries en exits as they develop (as we all know - later on charts look differently, and our desisions - its always recommended to have a screanshot of trades made to better remember why you made such desision and what was the idea)
. Or wait...better yet..I'll just do that on here since its my thread anyways haha. As an example as well. Sounds good?
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #91
- Feb 2, 2009 11:33pm Feb 2, 2009 11:33pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
thats a very good idea. Keeping screenshots of every trade and comparing all all trades at the end of the month lets say will let you know what works and what doesnt, which patterns you play the most and what scenarios you seek in general before entering the markets. I might start doing this myself, kind of like a trading log
- #92
- Feb 2, 2009 11:35pm Feb 2, 2009 11:35pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
whoa that was quick. took 40pips and ran (full position thankfully). THe reason i chose to escape is because the lower wall of the current uptrend is being tested as well as the upper wall of the previous downtrend. Ill look for another entry later.....pa right now is crucial (we do seem to be developing an M here btw)
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #93
- Feb 2, 2009 11:47pm Feb 2, 2009 11:47pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
another view of the current pa on the 5min chart (i do check out different timezones to see which applies best to the current situation). Note how we are right on the deciding line...we can go either way here which is why i closed position.
Sidenote: also note the i extended the upper wall of the downwards channel until Pa did not return within the range anymore..that constituted the break up. Now if we continue down...that new highest spike marks the upper wall of the bigger downtrend. (pa is constantly moving and so we have to constantly adapt to it)
Sidenote: also note the i extended the upper wall of the downwards channel until Pa did not return within the range anymore..that constituted the break up. Now if we continue down...that new highest spike marks the upper wall of the bigger downtrend. (pa is constantly moving and so we have to constantly adapt to it)
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #94
- Feb 3, 2009 12:02am Feb 3, 2009 12:02am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
one other thing i like to do is when i notice a pattern developing is just look at a clean chart. now we know that im flat and am looking for my next entry. We know that there is a potential M reversal pattern forming. The heads are clear and the neckline is around 1.2805. We also know the strong support at this time 1.2775 (friday low which acted as strong resistance at sunday open and then later as support once broken). So for my next entry I will be looking for a break of that 1.2805 level, possibly a tap of 1.2775 and return to 1.2805 where i would place another short if strong resistance is shown. At that point if we put all the data together, the bigger downtrend we know is still intact with the upper wall extended. Now its a game of wait and see, I may miss my entry alltogether or the M does not develop...time will tell.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
thats a very good idea. Keeping screenshots of every trade and comparing all all trades at the end of the month lets say will let you know what works and what doesnt, which patterns you play the most and what scenarios you seek in general before entering the markets. I might start doing this myself, kind of like a trading log
- #97
- Feb 3, 2009 9:16am Feb 3, 2009 9:16am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
- #99
- Feb 3, 2009 9:59am Feb 3, 2009 9:59am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
- #100
- Feb 3, 2009 10:41am Feb 3, 2009 10:41am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: RCMM (Risk Analysis Money Manager) | 2,556 Posts
