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Psiholog's EUR/USD trading style

  • #61
  • Feb 2, 2009 11:56am Feb 2, 2009 11:56am
very interesting scenario here. rose alot faster then i expected ( i may get stopped out haha). I entered short with 1/3rd of a position at 1.2855 and and the other 2/3rds at 1.2880. Both channels were broken to the upside however because of the fast ascend, an equally fast descend should occur to the lower wall of the current uptrend around 1.2775. THe only question remaining is, has 1.2850 become support or is this a false break up. In any case, I feel confident in my position with the potential of at least 50pips down even though I may get stopped out on this potential break up (and for it to not be an extension as i think it is). Time will tell ..good pippin all


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Edit: closed the 2/3rds from 1.2880 for a 15 pip profit...too risky at this time so im just leaving the 1/3rd in...for the moment this was just an extension of the upper walls of both channels as pa closed on the hourly below both breakout points.
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  • #62
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:07pm Feb 2, 2009 12:07pm
here is how things currently stand on the hourly chart. note the original walls and the extensions. if i do get stopped out on this 1/3rd of a position, i may enter again short with a full one as for the time being pa is contained in that range. my gut instinct says this is enough upwards momentum for now with a return to 1.2800 very possible.


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  • #63
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:13pm Feb 2, 2009 12:13pm
here is that chart again with the extensions only (now that we all understand what im talking about i hope). Those are the new upper walls and further breaks to the upside of those will tell me we are seeying the start of a break up and any short positions should be carefully planned out or not taken. Good pippin all

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  • #64
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:15pm Feb 2, 2009 12:15pm
Quoting psiholog
my gut instinct says this is enough upwards momentum for now with a return to 1.2800 very possible.


Attachment
That is my instinct as well, and I entered earlier at 2881. Did not TP as I would rather close out the entire position if it heads up. I just don't feel it will but on the other hand I don't have any "gut" on the downside. May take some profit at the DP.
  • #65
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:20pm Feb 2, 2009 12:20pm
subscribing to your thread
  • #66
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:20pm Feb 2, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting TradeWell
That is my instinct as well, and I entered earlier at 2881. Did not TP as I would rather close out the entire position if it heads up. I just don't feel it will but on the other hand I don't have any "gut" on the downside. May take some profit at the DP.
i will attempt to explain my gut feeling here or mentality. the inner works of psiholog

"uptrend. price action stuck to the upper wall of the uptrend. usually before bulls get exhausted one final big push is seen. that push tested the upper wall of the bigger downtrend but there was no steam to truly break it. bulls are exhausted. bears are stocking up on cheap dollars. Return to the lows is very possible now. PA sticking to the upper wall of this temporary uptrend is usually followed by a violent break to the lower wall. Short it is."

haha hope that explains my mentality. This is why even if i get stopped out, no regrets, my strategy is intact and fully functioning. Cant win them all
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  • #67
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:30pm Feb 2, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting psiholog
i will attempt to explain my gut feeling here or mentality. the inner works of psiholog

"uptrend. price action stuck to the upper wall of the uptrend. usually before bulls get exhausted one final big push is seen. that push tested the upper wall of the bigger downtrend but there was no steam to truly break it. bulls are exhausted. bears are stocking up on cheap dollars. Return to the lows is very possible now. PA sticking to the upper wall of this temporary uptrend is usually followed by a violent break to the lower wall. Short it is."

haha...
The major move over the last weeks has been down. This bull move did not have the strength, IMO, to last. However, that is what I see in my limited experience, so stops at BE cover that.
  • #68
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:30pm Feb 2, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting emda
subscribing to your thread
Welcome! good to have you here.
  • #69
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:41pm Feb 2, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting TradeWell
Welcome! good to have you here.
i second that.


i think its worth noting that the dow briefly pushed up to break even and now is already -70points, nasdaq briefly in the green and the s&p 500 just below 0. Oil slightly in the negative. During all this eur/usd has gone up...clearly today is not a day of correlations and the market is waiting for something. For what is the question. 1.2855 is also acting as support for now but if it gets broken (as i think it will)...here comes 1.2800 or lower again...no break will push it towards 1.2900 again, that range is broken to the upside...im staying out as the market is hard to understand right now
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  • #70
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:52pm Feb 2, 2009 12:52pm
thanks

I have lost correlation between oil and gold and eurusd lately... so I'm not looking at those now... I am not trading today because of the risk... I look for short positions... but not until we reach the weekly pivot... mondays are mondays... I still expect a drop in eurusd for today or asian session.
  • #71
  • Feb 2, 2009 12:52pm Feb 2, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting psiholog
... the market is hard to understand right now
NY seems to be like that lately.
  • #72
  • Feb 2, 2009 1:19pm Feb 2, 2009 1:19pm
i just noticed something on the bigger timeline, really since we bottomed out at 1.23. That trendline that was the bottom wall of that massive triangle for those who recall back at the end of november was just tapped and broken at todays low but we have retreated off that level since then. That explains why pa just did nothing at the low for so many hours and this recent move up. There is a good possibility here we will see bull days for some time to come but if the low goes, we are going to see a massive move down. Wow its starting to feel like the days before the bull rally in december.


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  • #73
  • Feb 2, 2009 1:24pm Feb 2, 2009 1:24pm
Psiholog, in your system, you don't like to use Fibo tools or setting targets (longer term) by formations (patterns) 123, flags, triangles, etc?
mostly channels & SR levels?
thank you
  • #74
  • Feb 2, 2009 1:27pm Feb 2, 2009 1:27pm
whoa there we go...i just closed that last short position for 25pip gain since we dropped so fast. more to come but i exceeded my goal with those original long positions when i reached +100...now im 130 pips for the day or so. Off until asian or euro session...good pippin all
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  • #75
  • Feb 2, 2009 1:32pm Feb 2, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting fxxx
Psiholog, in your system, you don't like to use Fibo tools or setting targets (longer term) by formations (patterns) 123, flags, triangles, etc?
mostly channels & SR levels?
thank you
before i go i will answer this. patterns i watch very carefully, all the time. its just that they dont always clearly develop. since market open we have seen nothing but a whipsaw , up down, up then down, all contained within my main tool which is channels and Support/Resistance levels. Fibonacci i dont use anymore (i used them big time when i first started) simple because watching pa you can determine better the strong supports and resistances. Same goes for pivots. As for trading, I am an intraday trader/scalper with trades that range in between 1pip and 150pips profit, depending on the market conditions, depending on teh volatility. To leave a position open for longer then that, I would need to be big on fundies, fundamentals determine direction over the longer term and as the current world economic situation stands, we can swing either way at any time. Maybe after I have 5 years or more experience I will start long term trading (if the capital allows of course) but for now, I try to benefit from the moments at the present and get out as soon as I have doubt.


On that note, be back later
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  • #76
  • Feb 2, 2009 1:32pm Feb 2, 2009 1:32pm
that's what i mean:
there was breackout, big chances it would go 100(62%) - but sr jem on the way, made sense set TP on one part and let it be
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  • #77
  • Feb 2, 2009 1:32pm Feb 2, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting psiholog
i just noticed something on the bigger timeline, really since we bottomed out at 1.23. That trendline that was the bottom wall of that massive triangle for those who recall back at the end of november was just tapped and broken at todays low but we have retreated off that level since then. That explains why pa just did nothing at the low for so many hours and this recent move up. There is a good possibility here we will see bull days for some time to come but if the low goes, we are going to see a massive move down. Wow its starting to feel like...
I have a similar trendline on my weekly analysis, post #33. It shows we opened below the TL. Perhaps where we close this week (above?, below?) will indicate future direction.
  • #78
  • Feb 2, 2009 1:43pm Feb 2, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting fxxx
that's what i mean:
there was breackout, big chances it would go 100(62%) - but sr jem on the way, made sense set TP on one part and let it be
the channel was not fully developed at that time, at the time of those huge red candles we just broke the previous uptrend, the downtrend was not even fully developed until a day later. And since you mentioned patterns, note the M at the high (Double top). later on in the 1.2985/1.2950 the bear flag and pa before it the flag pole. You see channels dont start out big, they take time to develop, they start from one candle, possible a pattern develops, possible a small channel that develops into a bigger one and so on. When the channel is fully developed on a larger time frame and walls are clearly visible, only then you can do what you suggested. HOpe this makes sense, im really going now haha


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  • #79
  • Feb 2, 2009 3:23pm Feb 2, 2009 3:23pm
This pattern now leads me to lean towards a long bias. PA broke and successfully retested the upper wall of the large channel. It is now starting to creep up the bottom of the new channel. A couple more candles like that would seem to be more convincing. Not trading it, just describing what I see.
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  • #80
  • Feb 2, 2009 4:46pm Feb 2, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting TradeWell
This pattern now leads me to lean towards a long bias. PA broke and successfully retested the upper wall of the large channel. It is now starting to creep up the bottom of the new channel. A couple more candles like that would seem to be more convincing. Not trading it, just describing what I see.
im trying to figure out why your upper wall of the larger descending channel is different then mine. according to my perceptions, we briefly broke the upper wall earlier (reddish line) but the 1h candlestick closed within the channel wall. that extented the wall (gray line) which still has yet to be broken. the temporary uptrend from earlier has not been broken either..at this time we are bouncing in a tight area between the lower wall of that temporary uptrend and the upper wall of the larger downtrend. my bias is still down over the longer term but todays pa (as well as the stock market and all other corelations ) makes my bias be neutral for now. I think the smart move here is to wait until euro session or one of these channels gets broken decisively with a possible retest of the breakout

Sidenote: we did break to the downside of this temporary uptrend but considering the time of day..ill remain flat for now , maybe a sustained drop with a retest would grab my attention
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