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  • #7,961
  • Jan 30, 2009 12:35pm Jan 30, 2009 12:35pm
here is a 60min chart and a 15 min chart of gbp/usd. I see possible resistance at 1.4487/1.4520 for a short. this would be counter trend to daily chart. a break above that area will target next hourly resistance at 1.4660 level.---BUT__ since this is friday I won't take a position this late in the day. NOTE-the 15 min chart I had to re-do because i didn't save as a jpeg and as a result it shows price already falling back from resistance. I still didn't take the trade because it is friday.
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  • #7,962
  • Jan 30, 2009 1:29pm Jan 30, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting c-note
here is a 60min chart and a 15 min chart of gbp/usd. I see possible resistance at 1.4487/1.4520 for a short. this would be counter trend to daily chart. a break above that area will target next hourly resistance at 1.4660 level.---BUT__ since this is friday I won't take a position this late in the day. NOTE-the 15 min chart I had to re-do because i didn't save as a jpeg and as a result it shows price already falling back from resistance. I still didn't take the trade because it is friday.
Daily chart is also showing a nice line of resistance there based on previous support...will be interesting to see if we get a push above that in the last couple of hours today.

Good call with no trading though...little time left, it's a Friday & end of the month. I'll be watching these levels next week.
  • #7,963
  • Jan 30, 2009 1:37pm Jan 30, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting bumasoft
Ok, back to the demo for me. I lost a ton of cash these days and the emotions are getting to me. I suck at this
Have a nice weekend, guys. Talk to you monday.
Buma, (and any other "buma.." out there), sorry to hear about the cash..these things happen..but dont be discouraged...and yes if youre starting out dont be afraid to flip back into a demo or much better a micro, to get your focus back.
If its any consolation to you..I just gave back 1/3 of our whole months work in the last three days...and the way we operate MM, that "almost" impossible...
Note the "ALMOST" bit... LoL...

Because of that..let me share the lecture Ive just given myself....
My Reality Check..
(1) Im in this busines to make money, faster and more certainly and with less risk than ANY other investment option that I can identify.
(2) I know FX is NOT a Zero/sum game , is SUB/ZEROSUM. My biggest problem and my biggest skill and focus must be my risk management... because ALL the standing odds are against me.
(3) I must remember that trading large sums is NOT like trading minis or micros. Failure is NOT an option. Professional Trading is NOT a sprint. Its a marathon. Adding an average 2% per month to my accounts with absolute risk management is a dream result for 99% of serious investors. But it is only wortha damn if delivered in the context of seriously reliable Account/wealth conservation. This is the ONLY criteria for the judgement of any serious trading strategy. Alpha is a risk related return.
(4) I know the ONLY advantage I have is the choice to trade or not. So the biggest danger I face every day is the need to justify my existence by feeling I am failing somehow unless I am actually in the market.
(5) If I choose to trade it MUST be ONLY because I see a substanial EDGE.. and thats in identifying setups and patterns that my training and experience have proved to be HIGH GAIN/LOW RISK opportunities..
(6) I know that to survive in this business I must ONLY trade very low leveraged trades...1:1, 1:2, ...Leverage is there to take out the newbees. Dont believe me?...Hell its just taken out 70% of the hedge fund industry and 50% of the banks.. They werent very smart really..(Check out David Goldberg...) they just made very small returns..like LTCM,, but made them big by levering the input.. and hiding the risk...sound familiar ?..
(6) And if I do all this .. and I still loose? I know either the markets changed.. and the edge is NOT and edge..OR Im making technical mistakes in my tactical trading methodology .. OR I not doing my homework on sentiment and pending news..OR my psycological mindset is wrong..emotionally/non rationally ...greed and fear etc... OR Im just getting a statistical hit..(loosing some is inevitable)... and not to be taken personally.

Tomorrow.. Ill be sitting down analyising the last couple of days trades and asking myself these questions..
Whatever the result.. Im NOT going to blame myself.. not going to obsess about whats happened..Im going to see if I can pin the problem, an if not then adjust how I play next week to minimise any further damage..until I do.
And if that means sitting and just watching.. then thats what I'll do.

Sharing this sort of stuff is difficult for me.. and very personal.
Each trader finds his own approach. This is mine.
My beliefs as xpressed here, may not be yours. I dont expect them to be.
But maybe some may find a grain in this post that can help them survive and develop..
In my philosophy..there are no winners or loosers.. just Survivors...
Ive discovered its a prerequisite to everything else .. LoL

Have a good weekend..
  • #7,964
  • Jan 30, 2009 5:48pm Jan 30, 2009 5:48pm
Nice post Cliff
This might help.
I just came back from being away from trading for about 3 weeks.I do the same thing when I loose three in a row.
Monday and Tuesday, demo trade. Wednesday and Thursday 10 cents a pip. Friday 1 $ a pip. I increase this way till I am risking 2% of my account on each trade rarley with a SL over 50 pips. By then my confidence is back up and I feel in rhythm with the markets.
Hope this helps.
  • #7,965
  • Jan 30, 2009 6:08pm Jan 30, 2009 6:08pm
One thing on my mind was that sometimes when you take bounces in the opposite direction and get stopped out, is it a good idea to take that as a break and go in the original direction? Because sometimes I get stopped out and see the hourly closed below
  • #7,966
  • Jan 30, 2009 7:40pm Jan 30, 2009 7:40pm
How's this for next week? 4 hour/daily second time back or weekly first time back.
I think I'll watch for some kind of entry here although I don't know if long or short, on weekly it's a bearish outside bar so it could be analyzed as a bounce up bullish or a drop bearish. Price action will hopefully let me get in one of the directions, I'm not going to guess but it's definitely a clean entry coming up whatever way it goes (maybe both sides will give good entries and one will then be a runner).

The vertical lines are weekly separators. With that in mind on last week's zone around Jan 19 I went long on the break of the high from the previous week (inside bar) and managed it up from around 0.9115 to a stop out when it fell through around 0.9315 at one point last week also. This week it dropped all the way down and it would be nice to get in because it seems to cleanly trend when it is time to go.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #7,967
  • Jan 31, 2009 4:53am Jan 31, 2009 4:53am
Quoting cliffedwards
Buma, (and any other "buma.." out there), sorry to hear about the cash..these things happen..but dont be discouraged...and yes if youre starting out dont be afraid to flip back into a demo or much better a micro, to get your focus back.
If its any consolation to you..I just gave back 1/3 of our whole months work in the last three days...and the way we operate MM, that "almost" impossible...
Note the "ALMOST" bit... LoL...

Because of that..let me share the lecture Ive just given myself....
My Reality Check..
(1) Im in this busines...
Thanks, Cliff. That's some nice ideas you put there in your post. I will try to analyze myself and my mistakes better and get back on track from a demo account. It's crucial to preserve capital if you want to stay in the game.

Have a great weekend!
  • #7,968
  • Jan 31, 2009 10:44am Jan 31, 2009 10:44am
Bumasoft, I don't know what trades you are taking, but consider that this thread was started for "No Brainers" -- are you only taking the ones that look like solid gold? BRV's intention was to highlight only trades with very obvious lines of SR where price reacts strongly almost every time it hits there and can be expected to bounce this time as well; ideally it would not have been touched yet (on this side); better yet if there is 50-76 fib confluence, etc. Breakouts, 15min stuff, etc would not be "no brainers". Sounds like you might just be taking too many iffy trades.

I've been trying out this method for a few weeks now and keeping good records for the past two. My win/loss record is pretty crap at 15:11 (I'm not immune to taking trades that don't look as ironclad) -- but even so it's been profitable with a total gain of almost 8x my risk, with only one losing day.
  • #7,969
  • Jan 31, 2009 11:30am Jan 31, 2009 11:30am
Quoting orcus
Bumasoft, I don't know what trades you are taking, but consider that this thread was started for "No Brainers" -- are you only taking the ones that look like solid gold? BRV's intention was to highlight only trades with very obvious lines of SR where price reacts strongly almost every time it hits there and can be expected to bounce this time as well; ideally it would not have been touched yet (on this side); better yet if there is 50-76 fib confluence, etc. Breakouts, 15min stuff, etc would not be "no brainers". Sounds like you might just be...
That's cool, orcus. Thanks for your reply. Well, actually I think I have more of an emotional problem. You see, when I started using this method, I made 265 pips in one week with 100% win ratio (I had a problem then too, I closed in profit too early, instead of letting part of the profit run). But after that I had a couple of days in which I just missed a lot of trades. I saw that there were s/r zones, I used limit orders, but most of the time, price would reverse before it got to my limit order. And that became frustrating and made me overtrade and take the bad trades. Plus I made another aweful noob mistake. When I saw a trade on USDCAD was not working out as planned, I just lowered my stop wishing it would still reverse... And I lowered it until I lost 95 pips instead of 30. Yeah, I know that's stupid, but ... I did do that. I did this on another trade also. And I also scaled in (added more than one position in the s/r zone, in case price went further through, so I catch a better price). Problem is I risked too much capital. So this more a problem of controling emotions than of method. I guess time will teach. I was viewing Sam Seiden's videos and read his articles and now I really understand how the market really moves. I lacked this understanding before. I like it how he thinks in terms of supply and demand and how he identifies these levels as the origin of imbalance between supply and demand... Bottom line: I still have much to learn and much more experience to gain and much more things to break in my house until I am consistent LOL. After all, there are two types of traders: traders with money and traders with experience. Those with experience leave with the money and those with the money leave with experience and an empty pocket . Some day, I will be on the other side.

Cheers!
  • #7,970
  • Jan 31, 2009 12:08pm Jan 31, 2009 12:08pm
Hi All,

Can anyone point me in the right direction for Sam Seiden's videos that assit with this method ?

Cheers

MAB
  • #7,971
  • Jan 31, 2009 12:10pm Jan 31, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting Mab
Hi All,

Can anyone point me in the right direction for Sam Seiden's videos that assit with this method ?

Cheers

MAB
Sam Seiden's webcasts:

  1. January 15, 2009 - Rule Based Short Term Trading In Forex
  2. November 24, 2008 - Trade What Is Real, Not What You Feel
  3. October 18, 2008 - Conventional Chart Patterns and Forex
  4. July 10, 2008 - Short term Forex Trading Strategies, Breakouts and Reversals
  5. June 19, 2008 - Understanding The Creation Of Candles In Forex Trading
  6. May 7, 2008 - Capture Reversal Points with the Use of Indicators and Oscillators
  7. March 26, 2008 - Forex Swing Trading, Low Risk / High Reward Trading
  8. March 5, 2008 - Understanding the Exact Process Behind the Movement In Price
  9. February 6, 2008 - Using CCI and Stochastics For Long and Short Term Forex Trading
  10. January 9, 2008 - Multiple Low Risk Forex Entries With Support and Resistance

Also make sure you sign up on http://www.samseiden.com in the resources section and you will get an email with links toward some of his articles. Those articles are solid gold!

Good luck!

  • #7,972
  • Jan 31, 2009 12:14pm Jan 31, 2009 12:14pm
Thx Buma

Will download and spend tomorrow with a coffee watching these.

Are you having some success with this method Buma ?

MAB
  • #7,973
  • Jan 31, 2009 12:18pm Jan 31, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting Mab
Thx Buma

Will download and spend tomorrow with a coffee watching these.

Are you having some success with this method Buma ?

MAB
I have not yet had the chance to really use supply and demand the way Sam does, but I spent yesterday and today watching these levels on different charts (I watched thousands of hours worth of data) and I have to tell you that if there is a Holy Grail in Forex, this is it: supply/demand (support/resistance). Once you understand how supply/demand works and you learn how to find the origin of the imbalance between supply and demand, you have yourself some very high probability setups. I am watching the charts right now, scrolling back in time, marking levels of supply/demand and then moving forward to see how price reacted when it came back to those levels. And this works at least 80% of the time if you do it the right way. I will try them starting monday
  • #7,974
  • Jan 31, 2009 1:29pm Jan 31, 2009 1:29pm
Bumasoft, why wait till Monday if you can do it today? Don't know if you heard of Forex Tester? It is a way to "simulate" with real data (from your broker database), candle by candle. You may want to check that out to test any strategy. Google it I believe the software cost about $300.





Quoting bumasoft
I have not yet had the chance to really use supply and demand the way Sam does, but I spent yesterday and today watching these levels on different charts (I watched thousands of hours worth of data) and I have to tell you that if there is a Holy Grail in Forex, this is it: supply/demand (support/resistance). Once you understand how supply/demand works and you learn how to find the origin of the imbalance between supply and demand, you have yourself some very high probability setups. I am watching the charts right now, scrolling back in time, marking...
  • #7,975
  • Jan 31, 2009 1:31pm Jan 31, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting SeaPip
Bumasoft, why wait till Monday if you can do it today? Don't know if you heard of Forex Tester? It is a way to "simulate" with real data (from your broker database), candle by candle. You may want to check that out to test any strategy. Google it I believe the software cost about $300.
Patience is a virtue a trader must have in order to be successful. If I can't wait two days to test something, then I might as well go get a job and work myself to death . Plus why pay 300$ for that when I could add 300$ to my Forex account?
  • #7,976
  • Jan 31, 2009 1:54pm Jan 31, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting bumasoft
Sam Seiden's webcasts:[list][*]January 15, 2009 - Rule Based Short Term Trading In Forex [*]November 24, 2008 - Trade What Is Real, Not What You Feel [*]October 18, 2008 - Conventional Chart Patterns and Forex [*]July 10, 2008 - [url="http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008/07/short-term-fore.html"]Short...
wow thats a nice compilation. I will be checking some of those out too.
  • #7,977
  • Jan 31, 2009 1:55pm Jan 31, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting misterboy
wow thats a nice compilation. I will be checking some of those out too.
Great. They are a must
  • #7,978
  • Jan 31, 2009 4:39pm Jan 31, 2009 4:39pm
GBPUSD

Price will open with a 60 pip gap (1.4560), providing a good long opportunity at the nice round number 1.4500, which is also where the gap begins. Also, there is a good short opportunity at the 1.4625 - 1.4675 area. See the chart

PS: Actually, these might play in the Sunday session, not sure.
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  • #7,979
  • Jan 31, 2009 4:45pm Jan 31, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting bumasoft
I have not yet had the chance to really use supply and demand the way Sam does, but I spent yesterday and today watching these levels on different charts (I watched thousands of hours worth of data) and I have to tell you that if there is a Holy Grail in Forex, this is it: supply/demand (support/resistance). Once you understand how supply/demand works and you learn how to find the origin of the imbalance between supply and demand, you have yourself some very high probability setups. I am watching the charts right now, scrolling back in time, marking...
I wanted to back test too to see my s/r recognition abilities. .So, how far back do you go to draw the lines? And how far forward do you go from there to test?
  • #7,980
  • Jan 31, 2009 4:55pm Jan 31, 2009 4:55pm
Quoting misterboy
I wanted to back test too to see my s/r recognition abilities. .So, how far back do you go to draw the lines? And how far forward do you go from there to test?
I always look at the last wave of price, meaning the most recent wave, because that's the most significant price data you have. When price bounces, it's likely it bounced from a significant s/r level. So I start with a monthly chart and identify S/R levels on the most recent wave/waves. Then go to a weekly, daily, H4 and H1 chart and do the same. But if you want to backtest, you can just go to an H1 chart, scroll back a few pages, so you don't remember what's next, then try to identify s/r levels on that page. after you do that, scroll forward and see how price acted on the levels you found.

Hope that helps.
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