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Part Time Wealth Building System - "Open-Close Trending"

  • #141
  • Mar 21, 2007 4:12pm Mar 21, 2007 4:12pm
[quote=Jack Sparrow;250515]hai spud,

i try to set your MTF stoch but it not turn like yours....!@#$%^&*
could u give me your setting?



Quoting Spudfyre
Interestingly enough if you use 4 Hr Stochastics at 5,3,3 you will find an extremely interesting correlation to the buy and sell points for the trend with the 25 LWMA +/-50.
Here's a template.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl mtf stochs.tpl   4 KB | 721 downloads
  • #142
  • Mar 21, 2007 4:23pm Mar 21, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting tkimble
Profits are a by product of Money Management moreso than trading system.

TK
TK,
This is a question on Money management so apologies from deviating from this particular system.

Do you have a specific target say per week?
If so and the target is reached by say tuesday do you take it easy for the rest of the week?
Flipside - You take a drawdown first couple of days but wednesday provides a solid trade that hits your weekly target, do you close it even though this isn't a technical exit?

I ask this because i'm trying to create a trading methodology for myself. I have the trading systems that achieve the pips i want, but my biggest hurdle is settling on solid MM to achieve these pips consistently. Fear and Greed rule my thoughts about this.

I appreciate yours & others thoughts.

Cheers,
  • #143
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:31pm Mar 21, 2007 9:31pm
Spudfyre,

You sure are getting good results if trading the guppy in particular. 3000 odd pips in the last 6 weeks as I see it. I like it.

Mungo
  • #144
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:26am Mar 22, 2007 6:26am
Quoting Blackinc
TK,
This is a question on Money management so apologies from deviating from this particular system.

Do you have a specific target say per week?
If so and the target is reached by say tuesday do you take it easy for the rest of the week?
Flipside - You take a drawdown first couple of days but wednesday provides a solid trade that hits your weekly target, do you close it even though this isn't a technical exit?

I ask this because i'm trying to create a trading methodology for myself. I have the trading systems that achieve the pips i want, but my biggest hurdle is settling on solid MM to achieve these pips consistently. Fear and Greed rule my thoughts about this.

I appreciate yours & others thoughts.

Cheers,
This is perhaps the most important question that I have been asked since I joined this site. The answer is yes. I do have very specific monetary targets each and every week. Achievement of these targets dictates the amount of money that I will be risking for the immediate next trade.

I do not reduce my financial exposure if I exceed my weekly financial target earlier than later in the week. This week is a great example. I have been long in the GBP/JPY market since Monday with a sustainable trend. I exceeded my monetary goal on Tuesday but the trend has continued. I have now exceeded my weekly monetary goal by 100 PIPS guaranteed money since I have locked in over 300 PIPS of profit.

My weekly goal is 200 PIPS with the trending system. My investment risk is 2% of capital. Many invest 3% - 5% which is fine but I am a very big beliver in controlling risk. When you think about it, trading is nothing more than risk control. From a YTD perspective I am now ahead of my weekly goals by over 1000 PIPS due to a very profitable GBP/JPY trend two weeks ago.

Yes, money management is by far more important than any trading system. Money Management is the gateway to building substantial wealth...

TK
  • #145
  • Edited 12:32pm Mar 22, 2007 6:44am | Edited 12:32pm
i'm still thinking about exits... so far, all i have is let the trade run and just adjust SL. and speaking of SL, i don't remember reading about such a thing here... except the initial post of -50 SL.
so, where are we supposed to set SL? from what i've seen in the historical data, a SL at the inferior limit (50 under 25LWMA) works pretty good but some people might consider it too large (it's 100 pips). tk's amended rules say to take a -50 pips SL (which is at the level of LWMA), but if you look at the past data you see that 25LWMA is tested quite a lot of times while the general trend doesn't change much.
i'm thinking about bollinger bands or parabolic as SL, i'm watching both of them to see which one would work best for me. and in the meantime i'm going with the -100 SL.
any other opinions?

p.s. and another thing: while the trend is up, and we see a dip towards the 25 LWMA, why not place a long order at that level with a TP at the upper 50 line?
same goes for the other situation, when trend is going down... place short orders at the 25 LWMA with TP at lower 50 lower line.
this should compensate for some whipsaws.
just an idea. look back to see it it's profitable or not. i only know this week would have brought a lot of extra pips using this trick (at least 4 trades, which is 200 pips on top of what this method has already returned).
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #146
  • Mar 22, 2007 10:38am Mar 22, 2007 10:38am
Hi TK.

I am unable to open your Risk Managment Module after I have downloaded it for some reason.I do not have Excel programme could this be why.

Could somebody possibly post it as text so I can print it this way.

Cheers.
  • #147
  • Mar 23, 2007 7:30am Mar 23, 2007 7:30am
Quoting tkimble
This is perhaps the most important question that I have been asked since I joined this site. The answer is yes. I do have very specific monetary targets each and every week. Achievement of these targets dictates the amount of money that I will be risking for the immediate next trade.

I do not reduce my financial exposure if I exceed my weekly financial target earlier than later in the week. This week is a great example. I have been long in the GBP/JPY market since Monday with a sustainable trend. I exceeded my monetary goal on Tuesday but the trend has continued. I have now exceeded my weekly monetary goal by 100 PIPS guaranteed money since I have locked in over 300 PIPS of profit.

My weekly goal is 200 PIPS with the trending system. My investment risk is 2% of capital. Many invest 3% - 5% which is fine but I am a very big beliver in controlling risk. When you think about it, trading is nothing more than risk control. From a YTD perspective I am now ahead of my weekly goals by over 1000 PIPS due to a very profitable GBP/JPY trend two weeks ago.

Yes, money management is by far more important than any trading system. Money Management is the gateway to building substantial wealth...

TK
WELL SAID!!

Deanith
  • #148
  • Mar 23, 2007 7:56am Mar 23, 2007 7:56am
im finish my week with 400 pips profit... open @227.67 and [email protected].... this babe have a potential....( i hope fxnorth see this)
To The Sea My Friend....oh we already on the sea!!!!
  • #149
  • Edited 2:22pm Mar 23, 2007 12:03pm | Edited 2:22pm
Ok, there is something I didn't get yet...

lets see this chart...

I set my entry as follows:

short GBP/JPY @ 231.38 SL 231.88

as the session evolve, the ma25 goes down, so If I ajust my SL accordingly...for instance, the 2nd "X" mark would be my SL which was hit @ 231.53 ( arrow up) for a 15 pips loss...

the 2nd scenario would be if I keep a fixed 50 Pips SL, in such a case I would be still alive since it remains set as per original entry point @ 231.88

I really couldn't get which scenario is the one to be done...and in both cases it is not clear enough for me where should I place the reversal order...since I understand that the method refers and entry signal as the point 50 pips ahead of the ma 25 cross (represented by the silver line)...which would be none of them...and a SAR order in any of those scenarios wounds the original entry rules...IMO

Hope I was clear...

Thanks for any help here...
Attached Image
  • #150
  • Mar 23, 2007 2:10pm Mar 23, 2007 2:10pm
Hi Tkimble,

Thank you for continuing to post your great systems. I have been following them since I read your Pound 30M P/T Wealth Builder.

3 Questions:

1. I am somewhat confused about the use of a 50pip "hard stop" vs. a SAR trade which uses the silver lines encasing the 25lwma for entries and exits. Do you use both? If so, when do you use the 50pip hard stop vs. the SAR exit?

2. You mentioned in an earlier post about "locking profit" to protect your 300 pip gain. Would you please explain at what point you would decide to place a "hard stop" in order to protect you gain. Also, what about reentry into the trade going in the same direction ?

3. Are you still trading the 30min Wealth Builder on the Pound? If so, how is it continuing to work for you?

Thanks again!
Gail
  • #151
  • Mar 23, 2007 3:23pm Mar 23, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting toti1972
Ok, there is something I didn't get yet...

lets see this chart...

I set my entry as follows:

short GBP/JPY @ 231.38 SL 231.88

as the session evolve, the ma25 goes down, so If I ajust my SL accordingly...for instance, the 2nd "X" mark would be my SL which was hit @ 231.53 ( arrow up) for a 15 pips loss...

the 2nd scenario would be if I keep a fixed 50 Pips SL, in such a case I would be still alive since it remains set as per original entry point @ 231.88

I really couldn't get which scenario is the one to be done...and in both cases it is not clear enough for me where should I place the reversal order...since I understand that the method refers and entry signal as the point 50 pips ahead of the ma 25 cross (represented by the silver line)...which would be none of them...and a SAR order in any of those scenarios wounds the original entry rules...IMO

Hope I was clear...

Thanks for any help here...
I believe the stop and reverse for this method is on the top of the channel (for shorts) which would be around 100 pips and it is moved hourly as the channel moves forward
Regards
  • #152
  • Edited 9:33am Mar 24, 2007 6:57am | Edited 9:33am
i am doing a backtest for 2005 and 2006 using these rules: entry when price goes out of the channel, 50 pip stop loss or SAR when the price hits the other outter limit (50 +/- 25LWMA). i'll be back with some approximate results as soon as i finish.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #153
  • Mar 24, 2007 9:31am Mar 24, 2007 9:31am
these are the results for G-J. i used this pair because it was supposed to trend a lot... but it didn't as much as i expected.
2006:
-jan: 770
-feb: 1124
-mar: -424
-apr: 462
-may: -124
-june: -258
-jul: 129
-aug: 869
-sep: -52
-oct: -343
-nov: -135
-dec: 403
these results are WITHOUT money management. at a 5% margin per transaction and compounded profits from month to month, average monthly return rate was 6.5%.

2007:
-jan: 1827
-feb: 1735
-mar: 1667
same thing, NO money management. at a 5% margin... average monthly return for 2007 is... 72.6%.

not bad. the problem is when market is ranging, which happened a lot in 2006 - hence the negative returns during some months. if someone could develop an EA for this system, we could see the results with money management (several lots, TP at 50, TP at 100... trailing stop etc).
it works... but... market has to trend.

Quoting Scrat
i am doing a backtest for 2005 and 2006 using these rules: 50 pip stop loss, or SAR when the price hits the outter limit (50 +/- 25LWMA). i'll be back with some approximate results as soon as i finish.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #154
  • Mar 24, 2007 10:18am Mar 24, 2007 10:18am
Scrat, thanks for doing this research.

Aren't we all wishing we were in since January with this system?!

Gail
  • #155
  • Mar 24, 2007 10:29am Mar 24, 2007 10:29am
Quoting Scrat
these are the results for G-J. i used this pair because it was supposed to trend a lot... but it didn't as much as i expected.
2006:
-jan: 770
-feb: 1124
-mar: -424
-apr: 462
-may: -124
-june: -258
-jul: 129
-aug: 869
-sep: -52
-oct: -343
-nov: -135
-dec: 403
these results are WITHOUT money management. at a 5% margin per transaction and compounded profits from month to month, average monthly return rate was 6.5%.

2007:
-jan: 1827
-feb: 1735
-mar: 1667
same thing, NO money management. at a 5% margin... average monthly return for 2007 is... 72.6%.

not bad. the problem is when market is ranging, which happened a lot in 2006 - hence the negative returns during some months. if someone could develop an EA for this system, we could see the results with money management (several lots, TP at 50, TP at 100... trailing stop etc).
it works... but... market has to trend.
Hi Scrat

Do you have any back test results without using the 50 stop, that is entry when price moves ou of the channel, stop and reverse on the other side of the channel?
Regards
  • #156
  • Mar 24, 2007 11:53am Mar 24, 2007 11:53am
let me explain again how i did the backtest:
- entry: price moves out of the channel
- exit: price hits SL (-50 pips) OR moves out of the channel on the other side, whichever is hit first.
if i simply stop and reverse when price moves out on the other side of the channel, i expect a greater loss. however, i ran another backtest with a greater SL, -100 pips, and simply stop and reverse at the other channel limit - smaller returns for 2006, but still on the positive side (results for 2007 were not significantly different).
i don't know what to say. this method has to be combined with a money management strategy, like multiple lots with TP at 50, 100, trail stop at 50...
also, a monthly target of profits or losses would help; i've seen months with hundreds of pips made in the very first days and then the rest of the time was just a profit chewing until the end of the month... and of course, months that started very badly just to recoup on the very last last days and end in profit.
i think it's very useful for everyone to do a MANUAL backtest, just to have an idea about what's going on and what are the drawbacks of this method.

Quoting howard
Hi Scrat

Do you have any back test results without using the 50 stop, that is entry when price moves ou of the channel, stop and reverse on the other side of the channel?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #157
  • Mar 25, 2007 5:06am Mar 25, 2007 5:06am
Quoting FOURX
Hi TK.

I am unable to open your Risk Managment Module after I have downloaded it for some reason.I do not have Excel programme could this be why.

Could somebody possibly post it as text so I can print it this way.

Cheers.

Please anybody
  • #158
  • Mar 25, 2007 5:10am Mar 25, 2007 5:10am
What spread did you take out for each trade?

Thanks.

Quoting Scrat
these are the results for G-J. i used this pair because it was supposed to trend a lot... but it didn't as much as i expected.
2006:
-jan: 770
-feb: 1124
-mar: -424
-apr: 462
-may: -124
-june: -258
-jul: 129
-aug: 869
-sep: -52
-oct: -343
-nov: -135
-dec: 403
these results are WITHOUT money management. at a 5% margin per transaction and compounded profits from month to month, average monthly return rate was 6.5%.

2007:
-jan: 1827
-feb: 1735
-mar: 1667
same thing, NO money management. at a 5% margin... average monthly return for 2007 is... 72.6%.

not bad. the problem is when market is ranging, which happened a lot in 2006 - hence the negative returns during some months. if someone could develop an EA for this system, we could see the results with money management (several lots, TP at 50, TP at 100... trailing stop etc).
it works... but... market has to trend.
  • #159
  • Mar 25, 2007 5:40am Mar 25, 2007 5:40am
6 pips...

Quoting tdion
What spread did you take out for each trade?

Thanks.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #160
  • Mar 25, 2007 9:48am Mar 25, 2007 9:48am
Quoting FOURX
I am unable to open your Risk Managment Module after I have downloaded it for some reason.I do not have Excel programme could this be why.

Could somebody possibly post it as text so I can print it this way.

Cheers.
Please anybody
Try:
http://office.microsoft.com/download.../xlviewer.aspx
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