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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #19,941
  • Jan 29, 2009 7:18pm Jan 29, 2009 7:18pm
i think at this point i no longer feel the "compulsion" to trade. after jim, mike, & everyone else have taught us the best way to trade & what defines a good trade, i have no problem watching & waiting for the a+ trade to come & happen. if i only see one in a week, then so be it. if none at all or i miss one, then i will wait for the next. i'd rather sit on the side & wait, then jump-in & risk losing money.
like jim just said, our goal should be to build up a sizable account so we can trade like how he just described. & if it slowly (& patiently) takes me a year or two to get there, then cool. i would rather get there at some point, then to get over-anxious, blow my acct, & thus not get there at all.
thanku jim, mike, & everyone else. what i am learning here will change my life.
  • #19,942
  • Jan 29, 2009 7:22pm Jan 29, 2009 7:22pm
Quoting james16
your learning a great lesson ad but here is the truth. . . . .

jim
Wow. . . . great stuff Jim.

I see a best selling book in your future.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #19,943
  • Jan 29, 2009 7:45pm Jan 29, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting gannina
Sorry to interrupt. I'm trying to get the concept of confluence down, but I never know how many fib retraces I should make and how far back to go on the chart.

Anyone have any tips for finding good confluences areas and how far back we should look and do retraces? I'm currently trading off the daily chart. Thanks!
Hey Gannina

Confluence can come in many forms. You can have a few fibs. Or a fib, and a ppz. A fib an MA etc. It is multiple factors lining up to create an area of interest.

My personal take on FIBS are to use the most obvious swing points. I often see people form fitting fibs to every little peak and trough. I don't believe in this personally.

Here is a chart of usd/jpy using the two main swing high points, and our current(if it holds) swing low point. Notice the levels of confluence lining up with a PPZ as well as FIBS.

Once you find these areas, they can be a head up and with confirming PA, a very high probability setup.

Mike
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  • #19,944
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:02pm Jan 29, 2009 8:02pm
Thanks mbqb11 for the chart! Sorry for being newbish again, but where are the PPZ zones? I am not very good at finding these. You also referred to a swing low I'm not sure where that is.
  • #19,945
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:10pm Jan 29, 2009 8:10pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Gannina

Confluence can come in many forms....

Cheers, Mike.

I have the chart below, is the pink area a good confluence level? TL, 150, ppz and 2 fibo. I saw the I4b but I was sleeping

Would u trade this setup? and what rank would u put for this one, A+, A- or B?

many thanks again
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  • #19,946
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:23pm Jan 29, 2009 8:23pm
Quoting gannina
Thanks mbqb11 for the chart! Sorry for being newbish again, but where are the PPZ zones? I am not very good at finding these. You also referred to a swing low I'm not sure where that is.
Hey Gannina

The swing low point, is where both fibs are connected on my chart, the bottom area, where price is around now. This is the lowest bottom from the recent highs I drew the fibs from

As for PPZ check this and practice looking for the obvious ones.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

On my chart they are the pink horizontals. These are areas of flip b/w support and resistance. Although not extremely prominent they are still there in that chart. Here is a chart with a much more obvious PPZ.



Best
Mike
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  • #19,947
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:27pm Jan 29, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting Piproo
Cheers, Mike.

I have the chart below, is the pink area a good confluence level? TL, 150, ppz and 2 fibo. I saw the I4b but I was sleeping

Would u trade this setup? and what rank would u put for this one, A+, A- or B?

many thanks again
Hey Pip,

I personally never trade Inside Bars on anything lower then the daily. They happen way to frequently(due to the dead time), and are just too aggressive for me with all the other good setups that come.

With that said, IMO your chart could be much more clean, and explain the same points. This is exactly what my chart looks like and the area I am watching.

It is simply the heavy support at the round number of 1.4500, you can go ahead and fit fibs, MAs trendlines in there, but I see no need. When we hit this area, I look for good confirming PA that is not iffy but clear. If it happens I trade, if it doesn't I pass. Simple is always better in my eyes.

Hope that helps

Mike
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  • #19,948
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:32pm Jan 29, 2009 8:32pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pip,

I personally never trade Inside Bars on anything lower then the daily....
Great! Mike, it makes sense now! I take ur words:" Simple is always better in my eyes"
  • #19,949
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:52pm Jan 29, 2009 8:52pm
Thanks MB, it makes perfect sense now!
  • #19,950
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:23pm Jan 29, 2009 9:23pm
Quoting james16

if you get good at taking only the best daily pin bars and you get 2 or 3 trades a month its really no different than waiting for the best 4 hour set ups
and taking 2 or 3 trades a week or 1 hour and taking 1 trade a day.

my bet is that NONE OF YOU that are trading 4 hour pin bars are taking only 2 or 3 trades a week. theres no way your gonna sit and watch a computer 24/7 and take that few trades UNLESS YOU HAVE A HUGE ACCOUNT AND THOSE FEW TRADES ACTUALLY MEAN SOMETHING.

jim
Excellent post james. This is something that I have been struggling with, mainly because when I do go live with my full account it will only be about 5k (thats what I get working summers- still a student). What has been messing me up is I know i need x% to grow my account so my baby account can grow to a large one. And they way I used to view possible set ups were as a way to increase my account by x% so I can get that larger account quicker. Thus I would hate to let B trades go by and felt I needed to take every opportunity possible, if not create opportunities so I can get in the market and grow my account. Basically the view was I am not making money unless I am trading.

Slowly I am starting to realize while the above statement is true, it is also true that you can take steps backwards (lose money) by not taking good setups. This is where the shotgun trading starts to go bye bye and the sniper trading sets in. I need to change/ the next step is switching my mentality to protecting my capital and limiting risk by taking only A+ trades and slowly growing as opposed to quickly trying to grow with all kinds of drawdown and lots of trades.

Thankfully I've learnt this lesson trading a small $300 account at 1% risk, which I must say I owe to you and many of the other more experience traders who have learnt the hard way and were kind enough to warn the newbies.

Sorry for the rant, I know it wasn't too organized or thought out but hopefully it shed some light. Been a long day.
  • #19,951
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:29pm Jan 29, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting stoli7188
Excellent post james. This is something that I have been struggling with, mainly because when I do go live with my full account it will only be about 5k (thats what I get working summers- still a student). What has been messing me up is I know i need x% to grow my account so my baby account can grow to a large one...
...

Thankfully I've learnt this lesson trading a small $300 account at 1% risk,
Behold!!!!..the power of compounding LOL

Even if you start with 300, look at what you'll end up if you consistent. I dunno if 10% is too much but it obviously better than putting your money in the bank waiting for the interest to accumulate.
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  • #19,952
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:21pm Jan 29, 2009 10:21pm
Hi all,
Just curious if anyone is watching the potential 4HR pin bar forming on this pair. Still about 45 mins until bar close on my feed so anything can happen yet.
Looks like it could run straight into a wall at 0.65 ish.
What do you guys think?

Steve.
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"The more I practice, the luckier I get." (Gary Player)
  • #19,953
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:36pm Jan 29, 2009 10:36pm
Pay attention to the usdcad for shorts....shorts are scalps longs are holds...look fro price action in rectangle

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  • #19,954
  • Jan 29, 2009 11:39pm Jan 29, 2009 11:39pm
Quoting arcus
Behold!!!!..the power of compounding LOL

Even if you start with 300, look at what you'll end up if you consistent. I dunno if 10% is too much but it obviously better than putting your money in the bank waiting for the interest to accumulate.
Thanks arcus, 10% a month consistently or on average is a realistic goal I feel I can eventually achieve. Last year when I was getting started in FX I would play with these compounding sheets so I could figure out how to be a millionaire by the time I would graduate college (starting with my 5k of course). This rush to feel I needed 6 figures a year by the time I graduated (I know, I KNOW) was what initially made sort of put a rush on the demo process and was the cause for the shotgun trading mentality

I will now re-examine this aspect, focus on learning to trade good, like a sniper (as I have been these past 2 months or so) and will take the rush order off of FX success. Thank you to everyone who contributes in this thread from saving me from disaster. Probably should've said this thank you about 6 months ago when I started in this thread over the summer, but thanks.

PS - before i stumbled on this thread, I spent about a year getting a grip on FX and playin around with various indicator systems and the make x pips in a day on the 4hr frame!! type of systems. After lots of backtesting and a little demo I slowly started to realize that these indicator systems didn't make x pips everyday and that I wasn't going to turn $5000 into $1 million in a year and 5% risk per trade was dumb. Oh man, its been quite a journey, I can look back and laugh now (rather than cry) thanks to the advice of those in this thread.
  • #19,955
  • Jan 30, 2009 12:18am Jan 30, 2009 12:18am
good morning everybody
hope u guys slept well
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #19,956
  • Jan 30, 2009 12:34am Jan 30, 2009 12:34am
Quoting stoli7188
Thanks arcus, 10% a month consistently or on average is a realistic goal
My idea on this is, dont think about profit before making profit. my current conentration is on how much I risk for a trade, and setups.

Yes, same, I did calcuation spreadsheet before but honestly, never ahieved it and only becoming a barrier and a pressure for me. So I adjust my target to "profitable wk" and "profitable month"....all I need.
  • #19,957
  • Edited 2:23pm Jan 30, 2009 1:19am | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting jarroo
Yes, I'm still in this trade.

Jim

1.4200 could be a new support level. Still to early to tell. I knew you could do it Mr. Pound.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #19,958
  • Jan 30, 2009 1:26am Jan 30, 2009 1:26am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Gannina

Confluence can come in many forms....
Thanks for this Mike, some good guidance on Fibs and confluence. Up until recently I have really been over doing the Fib retacements, and some times feel like I'm actually creating confluence that's not there. Lol.

Will try and stick to your guidance and draw the FIBs at obvious swing lows and highs.

Cheers
MM
  • #19,959
  • Jan 30, 2009 2:45am Jan 30, 2009 2:45am
Quoting dkmb92
i think at this point i no longer feel the "compulsion" to trade. after jim, mike, & everyone else have taught us the best way to trade & what defines a good trade, i have no problem watching & waiting for the a+ trade to come & happen. if i only see one in a week, then so be it. if none at all or i miss one, then i will wait for the next. i'd rather sit on the side & wait, then jump-in & risk losing money.
like jim just said, our goal should be to build up a sizable account so we can trade like how he just described. & if it slowly (& patiently)...
DK,

This is an excellent post and one I will refer back to! I am trying to do what you suggest, ie sitting on the sidelines and waiting, as all it takes is one good trade a week and then the power of compounding does the rest. However although I totally agree with your post, this is easier said than done! The waiting and the patience are skills which must be developed over time and as a result of learning from mistakes. I have been trading on demo for a few months and am about BE at best because of numerous mistakes which have been repeated. One of the difficulties I find is that on this forum there seem to be loads of traders spotting good setups on 1hr and 4hr and when I see this it makes me feel like I am missing out, which in turn compels me to rush in and be impatient, put trades on lower TF's etc. Now starting to detach myself from this and once again take Jims advice and look to the daily and weekly. Will also take a A+ setup on 4hr but go no lower than 4h. We all have to find our own way but the advice here is spot on.

berti
PA is where its at!!
  • #19,960
  • Jan 30, 2009 3:33am Jan 30, 2009 3:33am
Quoting ghous
Here is one of the few pairs I am watching...

Nice Pb (possibly...) at a swing high, what makes it interesting is the possibility of the break of the pin and the test of 1.25 which may give way to a weekly Pin bar...


Regards,
Ghous.
Waiting for 1.25, my first target area...
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I believe . . .
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