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No Brainer Trades

  • #7,841
  • Jan 29, 2009 5:59am Jan 29, 2009 5:59am
Trades I'm looking for: buy USDCHF@ 1.1425 and 1.1400, sell NZDUSD @ 0.5240 and 0.5250, sell gbpjpy @ 129.90 and 130.00
  • #7,842
  • Jan 29, 2009 6:28am Jan 29, 2009 6:28am
Quoting bumasoft
Trades I'm looking for: buy USDCHF@ 1.1425 and 1.1400, sell NZDUSD @ 0.5240 and 0.5250, sell gbpjpy @ 129.90 and 130.00
Are you quoting the actual s/r levels or the price you will enter at given spreads and shortfall?

Because I might enter USDCHF long at 11445 to account for spread/shortfall with a stop behind 11400. My S/R levels are 11435-11400
  • #7,843
  • Edited 6:49am Jan 29, 2009 6:29am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting RedCabbage
Are you quoting the actual s/r levels or the price you will enter at given spreads and shortfall?

Because I might enter USDCHF long at 11445 to account for spread/shortfall with a stop behind 11400.
Yes, I was quoting the actual s/r levels. Thanks.

Update: I think it's reversing before our orders ... This is bloody frustrating!
  • #7,844
  • Jan 29, 2009 7:14am Jan 29, 2009 7:14am
Quoting RedCabbage
Are you quoting the actual s/r levels or the price you will enter at given spreads and shortfall?

Because I might enter USDCHF long at 11445 to account for spread/shortfall with a stop behind 11400. My S/R levels are 11435-11400
Hi Red Cabbage - Can I ask where you got those levels from and the logic behind choosing them.

And I also asked a question back in post #7825 about time frames - you probably missed it this is one busy thread. But, if you can find the time to answer I'd appreciate it.

At the moment I'm knee deep in reading stuff and videos. Good gear!!
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,845
  • Jan 29, 2009 7:30am Jan 29, 2009 7:30am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Hi Red Cabbage - Can I ask where you got those levels from and the logic behind choosing them.

And I also asked a question back in post #7825 about time frames - you probably missed it this is one busy thread. But, if you can find the time to answer I'd appreciate it.

At the moment I'm knee deep in reading stuff and videos. Good gear!!
I use s/r from weekly (brown) daily(green) 4h(black) 1h(blue) I then weight the lines according to their significance.

My Fib lines are also colour coded for visual ease.

23.6 (light blue dotted) is at a significant round number 11400.

11435 is the highest wick at the bottom of the bucket

11421 is the 4h bottom of the bucket and a historical level also used on 20th Jan and 30th Oct

They are well thought out levels but it didn't work - the reversal happened much earlier but as long as you can see why I put then there then you are well on the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf290109.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #7,846
  • Jan 29, 2009 7:35am Jan 29, 2009 7:35am
Quoting bumasoft
Trades I'm looking for: buy USDCHF@ 1.1425 and 1.1400, sell NZDUSD @ 0.5240 and 0.5250, sell gbpjpy @ 129.90 and 130.00
I nearly said earlier that your gbpjpy target was 100 short this time but I thought better of it!
  • #7,847
  • Jan 29, 2009 7:47am Jan 29, 2009 7:47am
Quoting RedCabbage
I use s/r from weekly (brown) daily(green) 4h(black) 1h(blue) I then weight the lines according to their significance.

My Fib lines are also colour coded for visual ease.

23.6 (light blue dotted) is at a significant round number 11400.

11435 is the highest wick at the bottom of the bucket

11421 is the 4h bottom of the bucket and a historical level also used on 20th Jan and 30th Oct

They are well thought out levels but it didn't work - the reversal happened much earlier but as long as you can see why I put then there then you are well...
Hey, thanks for that. I appreciate it.

So, looking at the 1 hour bar (12.00-13-00 gmt) to me that really looked like there is a shortage of supply and plenty of demand. So, if the market revisited that level, would you still consider the trade as 'live'. Or would you need to look at how the market was behaving while it was returning.

Also, the wick is on a 50% Fib retracement. Wouldn't that fact have made you consider relaxing your 11435 level to accommodate for the potential of it reversing early?
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,848
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:00am Jan 29, 2009 8:00am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Hey, thanks for that. I appreciate it.

So, looking at the 1 hour bar (12.00-13-00 gmt) to me that really looked like there is a shortage of supply and plenty of demand. So, if the market revisited that level, would you still consider the trade as 'live'. Or would you need to look at how the market was behaving while it was returning.

Also, the wick is on a 50% Fib retracement. Wouldn't that fact have made you consider relaxing your 11435 level to accommodate for the potential of it reversing early?

Yep few buyers around midday.

Let's see what happens at my levels later.

Which wick on which 50%Fib?

I don't like to go mad with fibs just a retracement of the last big 4h move is usually enough for me. It's real easy to have too much conflicting info on your charts.
  • #7,849
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:04am Jan 29, 2009 8:04am
Don't fancy it anymore

It's just going to get stuck in traffic
  • #7,850
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:13am Jan 29, 2009 8:13am
Here is my next trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #7,851
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:22am Jan 29, 2009 8:22am
Quoting RedCabbage
Which wick on which 50%Fib?
See attached charts.
Quoting RedCabbage
I don't like to go mad with fibs just a retracement of the last big 4h move is usually enough for me. It's real easy to have too much conflicting info on your charts.
Yes I can totally agree with that. Been there, done that!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5 min chart.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hour chart.gif Size: 20 KB
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,852
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:28am Jan 29, 2009 8:28am
Quoting PaulEamonn
See attached charts. Yes I can totally agree with that. Been there, done that!
That's probably the cause of the uptick. However you could easily end up with 3 fib retracements on your charts which one do you believe?

The lower down the timeframes you go the less relevant the info becomes.
  • #7,853
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:30am Jan 29, 2009 8:30am
Quoting Shermenator
Here is my next trade

Attachment
Just tell me to stop cocking around and get on with it will you?

Indecision is my middle name today.
  • #7,854
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:38am Jan 29, 2009 8:38am
A winner...done for the day guys....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #7,855
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:40am Jan 29, 2009 8:40am
Very Nice Shermanator.
Did you let any ride?
  • #7,856
  • Jan 29, 2009 8:41am Jan 29, 2009 8:41am
Quoting bapxyz
Very Nice Shermanator.
Did you let any ride?
Always its men law lol...I just wont loose in the trade
  • #7,857
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:11am Jan 29, 2009 9:11am
I'm completely out of track today. I didn't take any trades, because I missed all of them. Even the GBPUSD short at 1.4400, which was at confluence with a 50 and 61.8 fib
  • #7,858
  • Jan 29, 2009 9:58am Jan 29, 2009 9:58am
I know it's getting a bit late in the day to be looking for new trades but is the Euro/USD worth looking at?

It is approaching a level that it bounced off earlier in the day which is also an old level that has provided both support and resistance in the past.

The area I would be looking at is 13020/45.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,859
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:23am Jan 29, 2009 10:23am
It's a good area but the big bounce off it last night means it's less likely to hold this time. Certainly still a chance for a reaction but not a true "no brainer" anymore (in my opinion). Now if it breaks through to the downside, then using it as resistance on a retrace would be a safer trade for me.
  • #7,860
  • Jan 29, 2009 10:33am Jan 29, 2009 10:33am
Hi Orcus

I guess we'll soon see what's going to happen!! Since I've found this stuff and this thread I love watching what happens when the market reaches these levels.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
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