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  • #41
  • Edited 5:53am Jan 25, 2009 5:06am | Edited 5:53am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
sorry, you could not be more wrong. you already have been on a good way by judging everything that matters can be read on the price, time, vol.
too bad, that you came back to trusting fundies and did not develop chartreading skills. otherwise i have no explanantion for falling back. the oil price drop is just another example of the fundies at work to mislead you, whilst charts told a very different story. key is disregarding that informational noise.

do you believe what news tell you? then thats another misconception in thinking. even wise men...



i read my text and yours again and got to realise that i presented my text a hell of a misleading one, i wrote my reply late at night too

I didn't think of fundamentals as news, i consider fundamentals as what other markets such as equities, bond and commodities do...is that fundamentals by the way ?

this is how i trade...i mainly compare different markets and find streghts and weaknesses...no, i myself don't care about each single news event what so ever...I think i got one thing right what i meant though....and that's expectations...that's what matter and that's what bonds and such reflect....whether it's correct one or not...like bond spreads may be leading the long term trend, or interest cycles are becoming to an end, inflation out look for the long term and such....that's my understanding of fundamentals....but if i need to put on a trade i don't think of inflation numbers nor any other news but simply compare the sentiment throughout financial markets....

hope to make myself more clear ....in one sentence: charts are what i care about the most...but that doesn't mean that the only chart i care about is the instrument i'm trading

what i meant before was that every currency pair has different factors that determine the price...like equities and carry pairs, like gold and aussie and so on and so forth...if trading one can't just rely on that instrument's chart and trade blindly by looking at that...furthermore if one don't have volume either

btw you must give me a seminar about vol and the way you use it
  • #42
  • Jan 27, 2009 1:31am Jan 27, 2009 1:31am
Yesterday the Euro rallied from 1.2850 to 1.3200 – A result of rallying bank shares bolstering European Equities. Barclays Plc announced they won’t need further capital increases, diminishing the safe haven demand of the Usd and Jpy. Barclays have stated that the units acquired from the bankrupt Lehman Brothers are helping to generated record revenue. This good news has resulted in a tentative return of risk appetite which is weighing on the Usd and Jpy (Bloomberg). However, this Euro rally could be short lived as the short term fundamentals still remain which means short term risk within the Eurozone.

Additionally Jamie Saettele the Senior Currency Strategist at DailyFX.com highlighted that from a technical perspective the Euro has formed a base from which a Euro rally may commence. He understands that each time the Euro rallies, and then drops, the drop is less than the previous one.

Yesterday we saw the Existing Home Sales come out better than expected (4.74m instead of 4.40m). This figure is a surprise as the resale of homes reflects a growing economy, and has numerous ripple effects such as renovations (construction), bank lending (mortgages) etc. The outcome may have led to improved confidence and risk appetite fuelling gains is U.S equity markets. Trading theme would suggest the rise in equities has led to the decline of the Usd against the Euro.

From the opposite side of the fence, the side that points to short term Euro weakness ‘The Financial Times’ reported that the ECB Governing Council Member ‘Yves Mersch’ does not want to see the bank’s main interest rate lower than the current 2.00%. (ECB have already stated their pain threshold is at 1.50%). This article indicates what could prove to be negative for the Euro as the global economic slowdown will hurt the Eurozone economy but policy makers remain reluctant to act.

Also the Usd could be supported by Obama’s focus on bolstering the banking system (Forbes). But at what cost? Yes in the short term liquidity may be increased, but the cost of the stimulus package will have a detrimental effect on the dollar in the long term as their budget deficit increases.

Friday the headline in a Chinese newspaper read: China urges Beijing to sell U.S Treasuries (Nikkei). “Calls are growing in China for the government to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities as some observers expect their prices to decline amid heavy issuance to fund U.S. economic stimulus plans” (supply to outweigh demand, therefore decreasing the value). Selling of Treasuries will decrease demand for the Usd and may lead to Usd weakness. Keep an eye on this!

The plan remains the same. With valid support for each currency in the very short term, we can expect the volatility to continue. So buying and selling simultaneously not only allows us to benefit from the inherent swings, but hedges against the risk that comes with volatility.
  • #43
  • Jan 27, 2009 1:36am Jan 27, 2009 1:36am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
sorry, you could not be more wrong. you already have been on a good way by judging everything that matters can be read on the price, time, vol.
too bad, that you came back to trusting fundies and did not develop chartreading skills. otherwise i have no explanantion for falling back. the oil price drop is just another example of the fundies at work to mislead you, whilst charts told a very different story. key is disregarding that informational noise.

do you believe what news tell you? then thats another misconception in thinking. even wise men...
Hey thanks for your opinion...

You know what I can't seem to get my head around... how people can sit there and completely disregard something just because it is not what they do...

I don't trade technicals but I can appreciate that they have their place and I know that people make money trading purely that. Why can't you be the same? You don't have to like what I do but please don't disregard it as being non profitable just because it doesn't work for you...

Please believe me when I say it works for me!!!!
  • #44
  • Jan 27, 2009 3:16pm Jan 27, 2009 3:16pm
I think we should remember that fundamentalists debate greatly amoungst themselves even regarding what type of theory is correct. For those of you who have a incline towards fundamentals, but dislike the inaccuracy of the quantitative side u might be interested by the austrian theory of economics. It has been heavily debuked by the U.S. mainstream tuition, but very influencial at times in economic progression. The theory openly claims that markets cannot be studied mathematically because of the psycological impact humans have on the market. The theory therefore takes a purely logical approach to fundamentals, and is heavily rooted in psycology. The theory infact began its life as something like the psycological impact on markets. Im not sure if that was the title exactly, but I know that it was the Germans who changed the name to the austrian theory before the 2nd world war, because the theory directly opposed some of their own ideas. Congressman Ron Paul and economist Peter Schiff, two people I respect very highly, are both advocates of it.
  • #45
  • Jan 27, 2009 7:37pm Jan 27, 2009 7:37pm
Heres my 2 cents.

Fundamentals do work. But i think that many people misuse them in forex. Forex is a completely different animal from stocks and such. A stock might have a couple of news items a week that move its market whereas the forex markets are moved by so many different factors that I'm sure even the most accomplished fundamental traders cannot make sense of it all.

Therefore, those of you thinking that fundies are useless in short-term trading, you are pretty much right. There is just WAY too much noise in the news that moves the forex markets to make it tradeable. Plus, by the time a certain news item moves the market, that news item has been priced in already.

That's the key in why fundamentals don't work short term. Say the collapse of a bank in the UK sends the pound into a freefall for 200 pips in a couple of ticks. What does that mean? That the pound will continue to fall? NO. All it means is that the news caused a 200 pip drop in cable and therefore has been priced in already. How is something like this tradeable? After the news has been priced in to the exchange rate, how is it going to move the market any further? Any movements past the news in the short direction will be caused by factors unrelated to the original news item itself, factors such as market momentum, the break of certain tech. levels, etc.

However, thats not to say fundamentals do not work in the long term. For example, during healthy economic times, currency pairs tend to move in the direction of the higher interest rates, or at least in the direction where the expected interest rate is higher. Just take a look at the majors before this whole economic collapse occured. Which way did they trend? Towards the higher interest rates. This is fundamental supply and demand at its most basic.

I'm sure there are many of you who will claim that you can see the trend in the charts without understanding the fundamentals behind the trend. I don't disagree with you, but my point is the reason behind the trend are long-term fundamental factors. Fundamentals move currencies in the long-term. And the results are displayed in the charts. Go walk up to a big bank and tell one of its forex traders that its the other way around and they will laugh in your face.

Now of course, you can use long-term fundamentals to predict the direction that the market is most likely to move in the short-term, but that's something quite different.
  • #46
  • Jan 28, 2009 3:05am Jan 28, 2009 3:05am
DOW - +0.72, S&P - +1.09, NASDAQ - +1.04, FTSE 100 - -0.10.

The German IFO Business Climate released a better than expected figure of 83.0 instead of the forecast 81.0. This was probably a result of the interest rate cuts by the ECB at their previous meeting. The Euro rallied against the USD on the back of the positive data release. However, this rally was short lived as CB Consumer Confidence in the U.S fell to a record low of 37.7 dissipating any risk appetite supporting the Euro rally. As has been the case with the current trading theme we see the USD strengthen when risk aversion becomes prominent. It is clear the moves occurring in the Eur/Usd is a result of risk trends rather than the underlying fundamentals at the moment (Bloomberg).

Monday the markets were pleasantly surprised as the Existing Home Sales printed a better than expected figure. However, what many people missed was that the increase in sales was due to falling house prices. A fall of 15.3% since December 2007… and that 45% of the houses sold were distressed home sales at lower prices still. Not a great release after all.

Home Depot, Caterpillar, Sprint Nextel and 8 other companies are set to cut 75,000 in the U.S and worldwide. With the U.S unemployment rate up to 7.2% last month and expected to reach 8-9% this year even with a stimulus package, the true extent of the recession in the U.S is revealed. This data adds to the gloomy fundamental outlook for the U.S!

The main news dominating the markets right now has to be Tim Geithner publicly stating that Barack Obama believes China is manipulating its currency in order for their exports to benefit on the back of a weaker currency. Such comments seem to be predetermined, and accepted by Obama. So in the middle of a global recession where all major economies are suffering from negative growth, when governments have cut interest rates to near zero and are working tirelessly to finance a stimulus package to kick start their economy, the U.S decide it is the right time to pick a fight with China, the country with the largest holdings of financial savings.

In order for a country to finance a multi billion dollar stimulus package they either have to print more money and increase the money supply, or finance the debt from countries with large savings through the issuance of debt. This makes it even more confusing as to why the U.S have decided now is the right time?

Well, you may be wondering what this has to do with the Eur/Usd… and here is your answer! China is the largest overseas purchaser of U.S debt, and should that relationship turn sour then the U.S could find it difficult to finance their own stimulus package. Such moves would also eliminate the biggest financer, and hence decrease the amount of Dollars being bought in order to buy U.S Securities. All these things add up, and put pressure on the shoulders of the greenback!

As we speak the markets are uncertain, hence the volatility. The currencies are being moved by risk sentiment at the moment, so as the news gets worse we’re seeing Usd strength, yet as optimism returns the currencies take over.
  • #47
  • Jan 28, 2009 6:50pm Jan 28, 2009 6:50pm
Hi

Micardo

Great Thread

I want to gain an undestanding of Fundamentals, I would like to know ho w you have developed this knowledge and if you can recommend what you need to do to be able t get the of where s particular currency is heading.

I for one believe that fundamentals chang the BIAS of the market, even if the news is short lived ie 200 pips down but that could lead to conituation ie interest rates go down shows a sowing of the economy and quickly enough investors want to sell off their positions as its not profitable now.

look forward to your reply

GAME
  • #48
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:47am Jan 29, 2009 1:47am

A pattern seems to be emerging in the movement of the Eur/Usd. Over the past week we have seen the Euro rally during Asian and European markets, but sell off as the U.S takes over. Yesterday was no different as we saw the Euro make it up to 1.3330 before paring back gains to the 1.3210 level (Before FOMC announcement covered below). The Usd had been trading in a relatively range bound fashion since hitting the one week low level vs. the single currency as the U.S efforts to support the Banking system reduces demand for the greenback as a safe haven, this was until the FED announcement.

Having traded range bound for the majority of the day, the Euro fell close to 300 pips down to 1.3100 directly after the FOMC released its statement having unsurprisingly held interest rates at 0.25%. In the supporting statement the FED mentioned the plan of purchasing long dated Treasuries, but failed to be specific and refrained from committing to the idea completely. Additionally they cited their concerns about an economy that has weakened further, and the need for a sustained period of low interest rates. This pessimistic outlook and lack of commitment led to investors buying the USD as confidence was drained once again.

Now all eyes are on the Obama Administration as they push to get a new $820bn stimulus package approved. Obama has proposed the concept of creating a ‘bad bank’ that will effectively buy the toxic assets from banks, and clean up their balance sheets in the process in a bid to boost credit markets. If Obama can boost investor confidence the same way in which he has boosted public confidence we may see a movement away from the safe, but low yielding currencies (Kathy Lien). With improving risk appetite the Usd could come under pressure (BNP Paribas). Obviously this stimulus package is yet to be approved and may face some tough questioning and political opposition. However, the rumours have increased risk appetite ever so slightly.

Once again both positive and negative news come hand in hand, ensuring investor indecision and increased market volatility. Today the IMF sharply revised their forecast for 2009 global growth to 0.5%, and the possibility of a worldwide loss of 50,000,000 jobs bringing global unemployment rate up to 7.1%. With the lowest growth rate since world war two coupled with a staggering level of job losses we should see risk takers moving forward with extreme caution.

There are also a number of experts on wall street that expect the banking system to record a further $1.1 trillion of losses before the end of the crisis… just to put this into perspective that would effectively be a 100% of the losses already experienced so far. This same expert believes that the U.S is only 40% of the way through this recession, and the stimulus package will not be fully effective until 2010. This news is far from good, in fact as gloomy as I’ve heard.
  • #49
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:57am Jan 29, 2009 1:57am
Quoting Game
Hi

Micardo

Great Thread

I want to gain an undestanding of Fundamentals, I would like to know ho w you have developed this knowledge and if you can recommend what you need to do to be able t get the of where s particular currency is heading.

I for one believe that fundamentals chang the BIAS of the market, even if the news is short lived ie 200 pips down but that could lead to conituation ie interest rates go down shows a sowing of the economy and quickly enough investors want to sell off their positions as its not profitable now.

look...
Hi GAME,

You sound like you already have a little bit of an understanding from the take you already have on fundamentals.

I believe there are two types of fundamentals... economists fundamentals and traders fundamentals...

what I mean from this is that an economics degree will help you interpret economic numbers and will maybe give you some sort of a framework for action/reaction stuff. Unfortunately this is hard to trade in the short term.

Instead what you said above about bias and numbers contributing to an overall bigger picture is what I look at as being trader fundamentals.

I learnt how to read the markets by reading... literally! I just read every article and financial paper I could... I don't mean cover to cover but interesting articles to start with and from there you will want to read more.

The key for me is to get an idea as to what the overall market are looking at and trade this sentiment. For example last year inflation was a massive massive story with regards to the ECB cutting rates and for this reason I knew that inflationary data would have a big effect on the ECB and hence the euro. Do you know what I mean? you have to take a look at what is in vogue today and trade accordingly.

I am hoping my little analysis everyday will help people such as yourself to better understand things.

I do read a few newsletters mostly free ones but I don't think I am aloud to post links... so unless you can get one of the people that moderate this forum to give me the go ahead unfortunately I will not be able to show you my sources...

I hope all of this helps and feel free to ask anymore questions you may have.

Ciao

Micardo
  • #50
  • Jan 29, 2009 2:26am Jan 29, 2009 2:26am
You can post links as long as they are not promoting any commercial ventures or direct competitors to FF. See Rule 3:

http://www.forexfactory.com/faq.php?faq=rules#faq_rule1
  • #51
  • Jan 29, 2009 6:03pm Jan 29, 2009 6:03pm
Micardo,

I am a big fans of your thread..keep up a good work, mate..

it is relief to see someone that can explain how the currencies behave..

I remember someone told me before that the world will find the balance between each other. The imbalance that happen right now (the fact that US trade is high deficit against China) should lead to the devaluation of US dollar. However what happen today is Dollar seems appreciate against other currencies. I strongly believe that there are arbitrage opportunity in here as soon or later, if situation still the same, the dollar will fall..What do you think?
  • #52
  • Jan 29, 2009 6:08pm Jan 29, 2009 6:08pm
I believe the dollar will fall in time, though not due to the trade deficit with China, more likely due to the massive inflation the Govt.'s stimulus package and the fed's proposed quantitative easing (basically injecting money into the money supply).

Right now however, the United State's economy is relatively less "messed up" than the rest of the world. That, and given its historic stability and the dollar's tendency to become a safe-haven currency means that the dollar will continue to gain value until the start of a recovery from this current worldwide recession.

Quoting Andrie
Micardo,

I am a big fans of your thread..keep up a good work, mate..

it is relief to see someone that can explain how the currencies behave..

I remember someone told me before that the world will find the balance between each other. The imbalance that happen right now (the fact that US trade is high deficit against China) should lead to the devaluation of US dollar. However what happen today is Dollar seems appreciate against other currencies. I strongly believe that there are arbitrage opportunity in here as soon or later, if situation...
  • #53
  • Jan 29, 2009 6:29pm Jan 29, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting Lamdun
I believe the dollar will fall in time, though not due to the trade deficit with China, more likely due to the massive inflation the Govt.'s stimulus package and the fed's proposed quantitative easing (basically injecting money into the money supply).

Right now however, the United State's economy is relatively less "messed up" than the rest of the world. That, and given its historic stability and the dollar's tendency to become a safe-haven currency means that the dollar will continue to gain value until the start of a recovery from this current...
can i conclude:
1. Dollar need to be devaluate in order to increase export
2. cutting interest rate plus increasing inflation rate causes investors withdraw the money out of US so it is devaluate the dollar
3. Increasing in money supply which outnumber money demand causes the decrease of value of dollar

however, the fact that dollar has became commodity and the tendency of countries around the world to reserve their wealth in dollar cause the value of the dollar is still stagnan...at least until now..
  • #54
  • Jan 29, 2009 6:55pm Jan 29, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting Andrie
can i conclude:
1. Dollar need to be devaluate in order to increase export
2. cutting interest rate plus increasing inflation rate causes investors withdraw the money out of US so it is devaluate the dollar
3. Increasing in money supply which outnumber money demand causes the decrease of value of dollar

however, the fact that dollar has became commodity and the tendency of countries around the world to reserve their wealth in dollar cause the value of the dollar is still stagnan...at least until now..
All of your assumptions are pretty simple generalizations and of course there are many other factors in play. But yes, you are pretty much correct. Also, your original post about our trade deficit vs. China is also not incorrect.

However, the forces that SHOULD be pushing the value of the dollar down are all long-term forces. So yes, in 5-10 years time, I think the odds are that the dollar will be devalued (we will definitely see some sort of dollar devaluation when the global economy recovers, UNLESS the recession-fighting policies of all other countries were more aggressive than us).

But that's kind of like saying that in the long run, real estate will go up. As population increases and land area stays flat, demand will shoot past supply causing a rise in prices. But buying a plot of land and expecting to hold it for 20 years or shorting a whole bunch of dollars and holding your position for a decade is obviously completely different than trying to trade for a living. I guess that's kind of the difference between "investing" and "trading".

As for now, a good trader should always keep the long-term in mind, but realize that the market does what it does and at the moment, it is moved more by emotions (investors fleeing to the dollar) as opposed to fundamentals.
  • #55
  • Jan 30, 2009 1:10am Jan 30, 2009 1:10am

  1. Stock markets down. (DOW –2.70%, S&P -3.31%, NASDAQ -3.24%)

Yesterday we saw the USD rally from 1.3180 down to 1.2880, over 300 pips against the Euro on the back of negative economic data. In the Eurozone, German unemployment change released a figure almost double the forecast for January with an increase of 56k compared to the forecast 32k. The job losses were across multiple industries, the fall across the spectrum demonstrates how the financial crisis has spread thoroughly throughout the entire economy, not just the banking sector. This negative European data put the single currency under early pressure and gave support to the Usd.

Ok so there was some negative employment data from Europe that may have kick-started the Usd assault on the Euro. However, the weak data right out of the U.S may have been the real catalyst for risk aversion to sweep the markets. Unemployment claims were up to 588k instead of the forecast 580k, and new home sales were down to a record 331k instead of the forecast 395k. These results heightened fears for global growth and sent risk takers running for the hills. The safe haven rally that makes up the current trading theme played out perfectly as the Usd rallied like there was no tomorrow.

As the global turmoil continues investors will now begin to focus on the ECB meeting next week when the next interest rate decision will be made. Even with the economic slowdown effecting the Eurozone’s largest economy Trichet has hinted that no further rate cuts will be administered at the next meeting. He has stated that very low interest rates have inconveniences, and emphasised that the next important meeting for the ECB is in March. This is and indication that nothing of any significance is in the pipeline for next week.

The day before last the FOMC held rates at 0.25%, but at the same time mentioned, without giving any details the concept of the FED buying long dated treasuries. Such a move would most likely weaken the Usd as it could reduce further yields investors receive for holding dollar denominated U.S government debt (Reuters). However, failure to confirm such action also contributed to the Usd rally.

At the moment it seems that our trading theme is quite firmly in place meaning that continuing weak data will mean further dollar strength as Risk Aversion kicks in and the flight to safety takes off. However as we have said many times before I really wouldn’t get too confident in any dollar rally as there will be an end and when that comes you do not want to be left holding the baby. Our approach is still very much to take advantage of the increased volatility in the short term whilst not building up too much of a position on either side and certainly not long dollar. The levels that we are at seem pretty stable (famous last words) and we are currently taking our trades with the range of 1.2500-1.3500 firmly in mind.

  • #56
  • Jan 30, 2009 1:18am Jan 30, 2009 1:18am
Quoting Andrie
Micardo,

I am a big fans of your thread..keep up a good work, mate..

it is relief to see someone that can explain how the currencies behave..

I remember someone told me before that the world will find the balance between each other. The imbalance that happen right now (the fact that US trade is high deficit against China) should lead to the devaluation of US dollar. However what happen today is Dollar seems appreciate against other currencies. I strongly believe that there are arbitrage opportunity in here as soon or later, if situation...
Hi Andrie,

Yes this is definitely a factor for me... but in the long term someof what I have stated in this thread are my long term reasons for dollar weakness but may not play out in the markets in the next few weeks for those specific reasons.

What I do is look at underlying fundamentals to find my reason for being bullish or bearish a currency in the long run (trade deficit, interest rate differentials, etc etc), this enables me to ensure that I am never over exposed on what I believe to be the wrong side of the trade. However it doesn't mean that I won't trade against the longer term fundamentals.

Lamdun seems to have a good grasp of what I do.... As well as the above in the short term the reasons for my entries are very much based on the sentiment in the market... you know, what matters to the markets today? which for example as oppose to interest differentials would be the expectations on what central banks will do with their rates at the next meeting.

So yes in the long run I don't believe it is a bad idea to have some short dollar positions but just be mindful not to expect it to happen tomorrow or next week.

For me the theme at the moment is quite clear
negative data = risk aversion = dollar strength
positive data = risk appetite = dollar weakness

I hope this makes sense
  • #57
  • Jan 30, 2009 1:20am Jan 30, 2009 1:20am
Lamdun thanks for your input it is very insightful and we seem to be on the same page with regards to our outlooks... nice to know theres at least one more out that shares some of the same views :-)
  • #58
  • Jan 30, 2009 3:24am Jan 30, 2009 3:24am
Could any of you kind folks recommend a couple of really good books which teaches us about macro economies of countries, what factors they depend on, how to judge them, and how to apply fundamentals to forex trading.

thanks
  • #59
  • Jan 30, 2009 4:51am Jan 30, 2009 4:51am
For those who say that fundamental isn't important and for them, technical analys is the only way, you have a button in your broswer, its called "BACK" or a X button in the right corner of your browser. Don't try to fill this thread with debates that tech. is much better than fundam. etc etc. Its useless, go back to your funky indicators, cross types and other jokes like that, and continue to lose money.

So, back to our business. Finally some real traders here, Lamdun and Micardo.
I'm a fundamental trader, I have over 3 years of experience and I would like to talk with you guys. My approach to fund. is to try to gauge the sentiment of the central banks, on what are the expectancy for the future interest rate. For the moment, I think that ECB, will suport the euro, because they are the only C.Bank who said that they "take a break" so, the expectancy for the interest rates has change a little bit. At least until march, and they said that will monitore very close the furthure macroeconomic news, what do you think, Micardo and Lamdun about this? What do you guys expect for the March meeting?
Also, I want to discuss about other economy, for example some emerging markets, like Sweden, Norway, Danemark and Canada and Switzerland. Sry for my writing mistakes but english is my second language.
  • #60
  • Jan 30, 2009 5:08am Jan 30, 2009 5:08am
Currently I'm trading with XAU USD.

I would like to ask what kind of fundamental that I should aware that related with gold.

Anybody could help me? Cause this is the first time I try to watch fundamental stuff.

Thank you.
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