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What would be the outcome if this happened?

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Jun 17, 2004 10:11am Jun 17, 2004 10:11am
  •  Lou
  • Joined Mar 2004 | Status: Senior Member | 1,415 Posts
What if a trading system was developed that was so accurate that tens of thousands of traders began using it?

Would it's effectiveness increase or decrease?

LOU
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Jun 17, 2004 11:01am Jun 17, 2004 11:01am
  •  vdeluca
  • | Joined Apr 2004 | Status: Member | 62 Posts
What happens when everyone buys at the same time? Prices are forced higher. What happens when everyone wants to sell at the same time? Prices are forced lower. Isn't this what is called "Momentum Trading?"
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Jun 18, 2004 1:42am Jun 18, 2004 1:42am
  •  merlin
  • Joined Mar 2004 | Status: Magic Man | 3,220 Posts
i would think that would be a good thing if everyone traded the same system because we could move the market. but timing and synchronization would be a problem and we would probably end up stepping on each others toes.
Relax and be happy.
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Oct 11, 2005 3:06pm Oct 11, 2005 3:06pm
  •  fx-trader777
  • | Joined Aug 2005 | Status: steady and consistent | 977 Posts
The answer is in time. For example if everyone uses your system and it shows EUR/USD short position so YOu must sell first or after several pips move.

IT would be good if my Big figure strategy was widely used I usually place limit orders near big figures in GBP/USD and if majority used my strategy I would have healthier pips than I usually have.
kiss the trend
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Oct 11, 2005 3:09pm Oct 11, 2005 3:09pm
  •  fx-trader777
  • | Joined Aug 2005 | Status: steady and consistent | 977 Posts
Quoting merlin
Disliked
i would think that would be a good thing if everyone traded the same system because we could move the market. but timing and synchronization would be a problem and we would probably end up stepping on each others toes.
Ignored
Eh, IF it would be possible ...
Even olygopolists cannot manage. Did you learn prizoner's dilema in Microeconomics? It is like that, someone will let us down and will not follow our system.
IT sounds like Soros and Buffet join each other to move the market
kiss the trend
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Oct 11, 2005 3:16pm Oct 11, 2005 3:16pm
  •  WTB
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Sep 2005 | 1,118 Posts
Actually no 777, if your Big Figure technique was widely used and widely known as profitable, people would place their stop losses somewhere else and thus annulling the edge on it.



In my opinion, if one particular trading system was universally perceived as profitable and thus homogeneously used by the masses, it would be self-destructing because everyone would see the same signal, at the same time, on the same price and in the same direction, and thus liquidity to find opposite positions to fill in your offer/bid would disappear.
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Oct 11, 2005 3:18pm Oct 11, 2005 3:18pm
  •  kittensizedbulldozer
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 9 Posts
Barbara Rockefeller talks about this sort of phenomena in her book Technical Analysis for Dummies. Basically what it boils down to is if a lot of traders are using "traditional" signals and charts, that it becomes sort of self-fufilling prophecy, since if a lot of people's charts are telling them it's a buy market, more and more people buying will propel the price up. Though this may be more true for say, stocks, I still believe it holds some truth in the currency market as well.

Just my two cents.
It's a one-way ticket to a madman situation.
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • May 9, 2019 8:16am May 9, 2019 8:16am
  •  JosepeMilo
  • | Joined May 2018 | Status: Member | 33 Posts
if indeed that happens, find a solution from a friend.
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Last Post: May 10, 2019 4:17am May 10, 2019 4:17am
  •  dkrock
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Gone | 1,106 Posts
The market would die, yes? Everyone would buy at the same time, with the majority getting massive slippage, then the market would just stop moving. A bank would still have to transfer money, but it would be terrified to do it. Right now, they transfer money at the idiot support/resistance levels they have most traders trained to trade upon, so eventually, they would have to increase their marketing efforts to promote support/resistance trading again so they could move money again. If some of the masses remained trading the same, they would have to sacrifice money to force the market to counter and run price to the stops until traders got scared and stopped trading the same. Kind of like it is now. When they realized how many pending orders were sitting on the London Open, according to that strategy, they simply spiked price both directions until traders stopped doing it. They want most traders to trade the way they have brainwashed you, so anything counter to that will have to be defeated.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
 
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