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Joined Dec 2008
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Status: Austrian school
|501 Posts
20.01.09
i made a mistake and jumped earlier without waiting for confirmation of the pattern to complete even thou the analysis was right
reasons of failure:
volumetric analysis not complete
divergences on CCI ignored
EW overvalued
was very risky setup, should not had put more than 1% at risk, in fact i did 5% , which ended in loss in one of the accounts
candlestick pattern ignored (this is the 4 time since oct)
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Joined Dec 2008
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Status: Austrian school
|501 Posts
sunday 25jan
after waiting for long time for a long position the following setup emerged
wave v and 5 is becoming more a typical wave 5 of the falling wedge
wedge tightening with a immediate breakout on the second test on the upside
H4 daily weekly candlestick patterns support positive (longish outlook)
waiting if will be a opening gap down or not
volumetric analysis not finished yet (update soon)
cci cycle seems over , signs of new cycle emerging
cci ghost inverted over,
waiting for ZLR , on positive good sign
waiting for a 50 200 ema crossover to happen
if positive , a good sign of a new trend
waiting for a retest of supres level 1.2920
the friday squeeze was maybe a first sign of bearish exhaustion
and the beginning of the first retrace wave (be it a-wave of the latest drop from 1,47 or the beginning of the 5 wave of the december movement)
weekly fundamentals support a wide range outlook
usd index seems to have peaked
risk :
countertrend
COT say euro selling goes on
risk-aversion will continues to dominate the next week events
strong rejection of the upper wedge
rewards:
1 target 1.3280
2 target dependable on the retraction of this first move (approx 1.3380)
break of 1.2685 eradicates the bullish outlook
cant update chart , will do later
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Joined Dec 2008
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Status: Austrian school
|501 Posts
sun 1 feb
very high risk trade
waiting for long entry at London session
EU
technical outlook
H4 bullish signal given at cci 50-14 crossover
ghost pattern on H4 over, divergences still playing on shorter TF
cci cycle soon to be finished, but not finished yet
price has penetrated bullish area with lots of resistance
general trend is still down,
so every long trade should be considered countertrendish
ema crossovers favors a bearish outlook, strong rejection of ema on H4, D1 and W1
volumetric analysis favors a bullish outlook
double bottom favors a reversal
EW, cycle seems complete with slightly bearish outlook
H4 inverted cup and handle in play
candlestick patterns not in favor of bulls (except H4)
weekly fundamentals support a narrow range outlook
usd index seems to make a double top (but is still bullish)
risks :
countertrend
COT say euro selling goes on (but less pronounced than last week)
risk-aversion will continue to dominate the next week events
strong rejection of the upper channel with double top and negative ema crossover
rewards :
targets 1.3050 (1st)
1.3390 (2nd) depend of the retrace of the first move
break of 1.2685 eradicates the bullish outlook
chart with entries soon
