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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #19,781
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:40pm Jan 28, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting squeezy
hey dutchtrader,
was seriously thinking of closing dat trade
wat r the other things one shld look out for when u enter a good trade but no showing good signs of going ur way.
good thing was dat i bliv i entered well, bad thing now was the exit
dis pa is getting kkinda clear now
i see them now at ppz areas
need to work on exits
Good question Squeezy,

No matter how good a trader you are this is one situation you need to be ever ready for.

The best part abt that post of your's was "i bliv i entered well" I love this confidence, that I am sure came over a good long thought abt the setup before you took it...

You perhaps put up the diffenet tfs played around with your fibs and rectangle tools, you zoomed in and zoomed out, you found ample reasons to go for the trade....I repeat you found ample reasons to go for the trade.

The other most important action that you can undertake in an attempt to be profitable is obviosuly managing sound MM and your stops and take profits before you enter,

However the point is none of this stuff or any other will gurantee you a win. It's just how the market behaves, which is in a manner not always complying to what we call "Logical".

That said, abt the Cad/Chf trade.

I stand 100% against the words i previously used for the setup. There was absolutely nothing wrong with the setup and I won't have to think twice to call this an A+ trade setup for my money.

It failed because...ummm??? Any guess?? Was there a round number? No. A fib? No. A support resistance flip? No. any contradicting historical highs/lows? No.

It failed simply because it had to, just a genuine looser for me, and which play a very important role in my trading, after a straight win in 4 or 5 trades when you're over the moon with oozing confidence, it's the markets telling you again who the boss really is and the experience is often good enough to pull you back the earth.

Bottom line is when taking a trade, you must try and ensure that most (cannot be all) of the odds are in your favor and you feel that you have a much higher probablity of winning over the trade than loosing it (cannot be 1). What I am basicaly pointing out is the fact that any trade, and literally any trade no matter how many odds you can stack up to go for it can end up on the loosing side....The Cad/Chf trade on this occasion was just one of these trades, they're rare but when they happen they are truly an amazing sight.

On a side note, I'll love to see somebody come up with a logical and technical answer to that support which IMO came out of nowhere, let's see if this could be an occasion where we can justify this market move? Jim, Mike, Jarroo, Rac, Jeff, Others...???

Regards,
Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #19,782
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:42pm Jan 28, 2009 12:42pm
I look at your charts jarroo and can not believe how clean they look, i think i am making way to complicated. and really dont now when to pull the trigger.
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  • #19,783
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:43pm Jan 28, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting ghous
Good question Squeezy,

No matter how good a trader you are this is one situation you need to be ever ready for.

The best part abt that post of your's was "i bliv i entered well" I love this confidence, that I am sure came over a good long thought abt the setup before you took it...

You perhaps put up the diffenet tfs played around with your fibs and rectangle tools, you zoomed in and zoomed out, you found ample reasons to go for the trade....I repeat you found ample reasons to go for the trade.

The other most important...
That pinbar has not failed just yet.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #19,784
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:45pm Jan 28, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting bertie123
Jarroo,

Just curious as to why you did not get in earlier on the break of the pin at about 1.39?

Quick answer, because the preivous PB had failed and the PB looking Inside Bar broke to the downside. So the PB the Jim talked about wasn't the best, in traffic and so on. Price had to prove to me by breaking the entire group.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #19,785
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:49pm Jan 28, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting trujillo1980
IMO the most dificult part of trading...Most of my entries are right, but problems comes at the exits moment (Money Management).

For that reason, I would like to ask you guys, (I know everyone has their own style):

*after you made your T. analisys based on PA you enter with one position or spit that position in 2 lots (or more)

*Do you set your s/l and TP at the moment that you place the oreder or later?

*How much of your position do you recomment to close after price is going in your favor.


The way I'm doing lately is open 2 position...
I do that too, the reason being that mt4 won't allow you to cloze part of your trade at any given point, i thus split up my trade in 2 but take them at the sampe price via a pending orer, as the order get's hit i setp my first TP and when this get's hit i usualuuy will not let the other half go negitive. My SL's are mostly mental, (hate their physical versions)

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #19,786
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:49pm Jan 28, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting ghous
G

On a side note, I'll love to see somebody come up with a logical and technical answer to that support which IMO came out of nowhere, let's see if this could be an occasion where we can justify this market move? Jim, Mike, Jarroo, Rac, Jeff, Others...???

Regards,
Ghous.
Someone asked me about this in my webinar on monday and my answer was for me this is a no trade because there is a lack of space, and room to run underneath.

here is the chart that I had in my webinar. The blue box(ppz), is so close to the bottom of the pin(which is b/c lack of space). Looks like it literally hit the top of the box before turning around. This is why I avoid these trades personally. Otherwise if you still like the trade after knowing all this, then you just take it on the chin and move to the next trade.

Take care
Mike

edit* Never traded this pair and also the magenta lines were me trying to show lack of space LOL sorry
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  • #19,787
  • Jan 28, 2009 1:05pm Jan 28, 2009 1:05pm
hey ghous thnx for dat reply,
most of it got into my head but i think i hav to read ur post a couple more times .....
anyways, its a learning process
i hav to fall inorder to learn how to stand, im prepared to fall in different ways until theres no other way to fall.....hehehehehehe
hope dat made sense
thnx man
cheers
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #19,788
  • Jan 28, 2009 1:10pm Jan 28, 2009 1:10pm
If I take a short on this pair it will need to be in the blue box area, unless we get some solid 4hr pa from where it is. Either way, I am hesitant on this pair for shorts.
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  • #19,789
  • Jan 28, 2009 1:36pm Jan 28, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting ghous
... mt4 won't allow you to cloze part of your trade at any given point...
I'm pretty sure that mt4 allows closing of partial positions. I don't have my mt4 platform in front of me, but I think you just click on the trade and click close and then change the position size so that it's only part of the position that you're closing. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I've done it on my demo accounts with FXPro and Alpari. Maybe it's something that the broker controls. Either way, I use the same method as you with multiple positions since I prefer this method (mostly because I can change my TPs on partial positions if need be).
  • #19,790
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:13pm Jan 28, 2009 2:13pm
Quoting NoBread
I look at your charts jarroo and can not believe how clean they look, i think i am making way to complicated. and really dont now when to pull the trigger.
I would start by moving to the Daily and Weekly time frames. Study charts by James16, Mike, Seeking, Bundy, and many others that post in these time frames and the picture will get clearer.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #19,791
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:22pm Jan 28, 2009 2:22pm
I don't think J16 group uses the Evening star formation, but I was wondering if anyone entered this trade based on that. Here are my pros/cons for the trade short:

Pros: Doji on top and good evening star

Cons: Would be shorting into a congestion region (similar to EUR/USD currently), S/R at 1.4200

I will not be taking the trade but would like some discussion on whether people are leaning toward/against taking it.

Link to learn what an Evening Star is: http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-eve...ndlestick.html

Thanks, Josh

PS: it's becoming evident that the evening star would have worked... but time will tell how well it would have worked.
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  • #19,792
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:26pm Jan 28, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting CandlePower
hi jeff nice trade,

care to share little bit why u enter at that level ?

thnx
Round numbers, ppz's & pa.

same reason the gj long was closed & now short gj & gu.
Have a look at the weekly charts the the daily then at these.
tell me what you see..
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  • #19,793
  • Edited 3:23pm Jan 28, 2009 2:31pm | Edited 3:23pm
Cable is looking good for a short.

http://img.skitch.com/20090128-pki79...773usifets.jpg
  • #19,794
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:34pm Jan 28, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting bertie123
Jarroo

That was a nice trade on cable, how would you rate it in terms of its setup? ie, would you call this one a B category trade or what?

berti

Not an A trade due to the traffic and size. Location was great. B category for sure.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #19,795
  • Jan 28, 2009 2:51pm Jan 28, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting arcus
Jarroo, do you mean you would hang on of the consolidation above or below 1.4350? Cause when I see consolidation below PPZ at round number, I tend to think the price will reverse so that's why I want to know why would you want to hang on longer. I mean, what would you really want to see or see when you see consolidation above or below PPZ because when I see PB, i know what to do but consolidation, a little bit confused. Thanks!
Well we hit the 1st target area and I took half off/other half to break even.

Are you thinking long term or short term? If short term I would probably lock in 50 to 100 pips and if it gets stopped out I'm happy.

Long term, 2nd have at break even (more breathing room), I will deal with the big swings in pip movement and see if Price continues on. If it gets stopped out I still happy because that was my long term plan.

We know that Price was going to react at the PPZ at 1.4375ish level. So if Price hangs around this level (consolidates) it may break up through or not. No one knows where Price may go. But I have myself in a position where no matter what the outcome I Win, because I will not loss money. I'm giving this trade a chance to run at zero risk. A very good feeling.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #19,796
  • Jan 28, 2009 3:03pm Jan 28, 2009 3:03pm
Yes, you're right, it is doable but as said, you can't controll separatelly TP, SL etc so it's better to open 2 separate positions. Or if you're familiar with MQL, you can manage one position programatically which is one of the best options I think.

Quoting byorkFX
I'm pretty sure that mt4 allows closing of partial positions....
  • #19,797
  • Jan 28, 2009 3:29pm Jan 28, 2009 3:29pm
Quoting jarroo

We know that Price was going to react at the PPZ at 1.4375ish level.

Guys, the PPZ clearly started at the 1.4350 ! (joking)

Im out of all my longs and unsure of Bias considering the potential close of the daily . . . But short for now . . .

I actually had the most sensational week . . . A guy asked me earlier (Before Chart 2 Happened) Why not 1.4400, and this (Chart 1) was the chart that I gave him.

And look at what happened . . . (Chart 2)

Im still short on Cable from that first 15min pin bar . . . Avoided being stopped out by 8 pips . . . (SL was at 1.4360) . . .

Honestly an unbelievable week for me this week . . .
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  • #19,798
  • Jan 28, 2009 3:33pm Jan 28, 2009 3:33pm
Quoting squeezy
well, i enter with only one position
entering wit 2 split positions is good, but wat if it goes against u?
i normally set my sl & tp after i enter a trade i.e later
after like hw many pips do u then move to be
I may say that you will lost the same % of the account you expected to lose based on the S/L and position side (splited in 2 parts)...please correct me if Im wrong....

take care...
  • #19,799
  • Jan 28, 2009 3:52pm Jan 28, 2009 3:52pm
Hi Jd, that looks like a weak evening doji star to me. I personally like to see a gap on the second candle in any star formation. It does have some stuff going for it like the confluence of Restistance, and the bearish third candle. But if you're just looking at the formation of the pattern in isolation, it is not very strong.

** Actually I take that confluence statement back, I don't see much there. The pattern also looks really weak on my demo feed, but who knows how accurate that is

Quoting Jduester
I don't think J16 group uses the Evening star formation, but I was wondering if anyone entered this trade based on that....
  • #19,800
  • Jan 28, 2009 3:55pm Jan 28, 2009 3:55pm
Quoting Jigsaw
Guys, the PPZ clearly started at the 1.4350 ! (joking)
Your High for today so far, has not hit 1.4373-1.4375? That's weird.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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