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  • #7,781
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:32am Jan 28, 2009 9:32am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Yeah I can see the logic in that but.....................

Looking at the chart action since yesterday, wouldn't it be reasonable to think that all the short players who entered the market at 11945 the first time around have since got out and may now be looking for the same entry again. Maybe even encouraged by the low momentum of today's up move.
It's a reasonable assumption, but unclear.

The creator of this thread called it No Brainer Trades for a reason, his 1st post states that trades must ideally have a 90% certainty to be a NBT.

BRV states clearly that he doesn't take trades at all the s/r levels he identifies. S/R needs further confirmation - it's all in the pdf and blog.

Alternatively look at some Sam Seiden videos for S/R & price action.
  • #7,782
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:35am Jan 28, 2009 9:35am
Quoting bumasoft
What do you guys think about EURUSD, 1.3215 - 1.3200 ?
Bumasoft - before I give you my opinion on your comment. I have a confession to make. I am.....................an Elliottician. A double edged sword that cuts me more often than I servers me. But the problem is, once you acquire the ability to see the waves, you can see nothing but bl00dy waves.

And so with my Elliott wave tinted spectacles on I would say that this market is headed for about 13150 over the next few hours. In the short term, yes there is a possibility that you will get a smallish (20-30 pip) bounce in the down move. But it is not one that I would want to rely on.

In fact, I've just looked at the 1 minute chart and I think afore mentioned 'bounce' has just finished.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,783
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:39am Jan 28, 2009 9:39am
Red Cabbage - thanks for that. Yes you are right about BRV saying he didn't take all of the trades he could; I recall reading it. So it's back to the .pdf for me!

One last thing, what are the 'Sam Seiden videos'? Will I find them on Google?
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,784
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:40am Jan 28, 2009 9:40am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Bumasoft - before I give you my opinion on your comment....
Thanks. Yup, it already bounced a bit before getting to 1.3215, so I'm not taking that anymore. But took 50 pips partial on that GBPUSD buy @ 1.4250
  • #7,785
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:42am Jan 28, 2009 9:42am
Quoting bumasoft
Thanks. Yup, it already bounced a bit before getting to 1.3215, so I'm not taking that anymore. But took 50 pips partial on that GBPUSD buy @ 1.4250
Well done. Brings back a few of the pips you lost on the CAD trade.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,786
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:43am Jan 28, 2009 9:43am
Red Cabbage - found the videos on FX Street. Thanks for the tip.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,787
  • Jan 28, 2009 9:55am Jan 28, 2009 9:55am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Red Cabbage - found the videos on FX Street. Thanks for the tip.
Thats the place, they are in this thread too.

There is repetition among the webinar videos but stick with it and watch them all. Repetition helps it sink in.
  • #7,788
  • Jan 28, 2009 10:55am Jan 28, 2009 10:55am
Quoting RedCabbage
Reaction at that level is unclear. I want levels where I can see a strong reaction last time price was there.

On a 4h chart look at EURUSD and see how long price stayed at 13329 yesterday. Then look at the reaction when price approached that level again today - 100 pips easy.
Well I looked at both the Euro/$ and the Euro/Yen for the corresponding spikes yesterday and, on the 4 hour chart, they look basically the same to me. It's not until I went down to the 5 min chart on both that I saw the real difference - what was that Sam Seiden said about chopping down a tree?

The Euro/Yen wasn't hacked to death yesterday, but the price certainly stayed around at its high for a lot, lot longer than the equivalent in the Euro/$. And, interestingly, the Euro/Yen made a double top in the 5 min between 08.30 and 10.10, whereas the Euro/$ made a higher high at 10.05 than it had at 8.55. This I guess, in hindsight, makes yesterday's high of the Euro/$ more likely to present a reversal due to supply than was yesterday's high of the Euro/Yen.

Am I about right on this? I'd appreciate your comments on my deductions?

Many thanks again for the tips.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,789
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:09am Jan 28, 2009 11:09am
Quoting PaulEamonn
Well I looked at both the Euro/$ and the Euro/Yen for the corresponding spikes yesterday and, on the 4 hour chart, they look basically the same to me. It's not until I went down to the 5 min chart on both that I saw the real difference - what was that Sam Seiden said about chopping down a tree?

The Euro/Yen wasn't hacked to death yesterday, but the price certainly stayed around at its high for a lot, lot longer than the equivalent in the Euro/$. And, interestingly, the Euro/Yen made a double top in the 5 min between 08.30 and 10.10, whereas the...
The level of yesterdays high in EURUSD was a better bet for a reversal simply because price rushed away from that level this means some orders were not filled and the same thing is likely when that level is revisited.

Visually the difference is 2 solid candles side by side vs. one candle with a long wick.
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  • #7,790
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:12am Jan 28, 2009 11:12am
Did anyone short the beast (G-J)? +27 pips , but I was expecting it to go higher before it reversed. Had a bigger order around 129.
  • #7,791
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:16am Jan 28, 2009 11:16am
Quoting bumasoft
Did anyone short the beast (G-J)? +27 pips , but I was expecting it to go higher before it reversed. Had a bigger order around 129.
S/r zone starts at 12885.

I don't think this is the actual reversal though.
  • #7,792
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:18am Jan 28, 2009 11:18am
Quoting RedCabbage
S/r zone starts at 12885.

I don't think this is the actual reversal though.
Cool, I managed to enter at 128.84. But it's going to take my stop soon (SL on BE). Should I leave the other higher orders there? Do you usually do that if small retracements occur before getting there?
  • #7,793
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:22am Jan 28, 2009 11:22am
Todays price action will most likely be a lot different than yesterdays due to the FOMC meeting. I dont know if I'd take any trades untill after the news event. Ive been killed to many times at this point in the day taking trades before a major news event.
  • #7,794
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:29am Jan 28, 2009 11:29am
Quoting bumasoft
Cool, I managed to enter at 128.84. But it's going to take my stop soon (SL on BE). Should I leave the other higher orders there? Do you usually do that if small retracements occur before getting there?
The s/r zone is 12885-13050 165 pips - not easily covered by a sl.

My ideal trade has a s/r range of <40 which means I can enter at the beginning of the range and put my sl behind the next level.
  • #7,795
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:32am Jan 28, 2009 11:32am
Quoting RedCabbage
The s/r zone is 12885-13050 165 pips - not easily covered by a sl.

My ideal trade has a s/r range of <40 which means I can enter at the beginning of the range and put my sl behind the next level.
Yeah, I guess you're right. Better to continue tomorrow, when the market settles. I guess I'm not as patient as a good trader should be.
  • #7,796
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:33am Jan 28, 2009 11:33am
some levels that are worth watching--either break outs or shorts--shorts most likely
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  • #7,797
  • Jan 28, 2009 11:50am Jan 28, 2009 11:50am
Quoting c-note
some levels that are worth watching--either break outs or shorts--shorts most likely
Thanks for a perfect NBT post c-note.
  • #7,798
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:05pm Jan 28, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Visually the difference is 2 solid candles side by side vs. one candle with a long wick.
Thanks for posting the charts. My 4 hours candles don't look the same as yours. Both of mind look doji'ish and, if anything, the Euro/Yen looks the more severe. This due to time differences in data I guess.

Anyway, thanks again for the help. I'm off to seek out more of Sam Seiden's videos. They are gold dust!

BTW - you said that there were links to a few of them on this thread. Any idea who posted them? It's just that this thread is 700+ pages long. And while I'll readily agree that his stuff is worth the search, I wouldn't mind finding a short cut.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,799
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:29pm Jan 28, 2009 12:29pm
Red Cabbage - I went to his site and found a whole list of webinars. I don't know if it is all of them but there is enough to be going on with.

Thanks again.
RegardsPaul Eamonn
  • #7,800
  • Jan 28, 2009 12:32pm Jan 28, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting PaulEamonn
My 4 hours candles don't look the same as yours. Both of mind look doji'ish and, if anything, the Euro/Yen looks the more severe. This due to time differences in data I guess.
My charts are set to GMT, you may want to check yours.
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