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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #19,701
  • Jan 27, 2009 1:43pm Jan 27, 2009 1:43pm
I found this confluence of fib levels. I'm not sure if it is a good idea to use the smaller swing high for fibs but this is what I got.

This pin formed at the 23.6% retrace of the larger move and 38.2% retrace of the smaller move.

The low of the pin is 1.3117 and I was thinking of entering at the break of 1.3100. I'm considering taking profit at 1.3050 but the 2 bar highs at 1.3080 have me worried. SL is 1.3335 which is a 235 pip risk. Not so sure that this one is worth taking and it seems like there is a bit of traffic to the left.

Anyone have any opinions on this one?

Scott
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  • #19,702
  • Jan 27, 2009 2:15pm Jan 27, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting scott087
I found this confluence of fib levels....
The 1.3050 area you point out should most definitely be a concern; that's why it only took me about 2 seconds to decide not to play this one. The R:R you outlined is not the side of the equation you want to be on, imo.

Now if we were to get a bullish PA signal around the .3050 area, that'd be enticing.
PipMasterFlex
  • #19,703
  • Jan 27, 2009 2:31pm Jan 27, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting scott087
Anyone have any opinions on this one?
Scott
Does it sit comfortable with you?

You could look back and see that beautiful pin in december and compare?

In my mind its not a 'simple' trade to make. There's too many decisions to make, too much to go wrong. Why put yourself through the stress? Wait for an easy one

IMHO.
  • #19,704
  • Jan 27, 2009 2:32pm Jan 27, 2009 2:32pm
I am tempted to take the E/U daily pin as I have not taken a trade yet this week but imho there is a bit of traffic to the left and the previous bar highs are not far away - will pass on this one.
PA is where its at!!
  • #19,705
  • Jan 27, 2009 3:08pm Jan 27, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting Blackinc
Does it sit comfortable with you?

You could look back and see that beautiful pin in december and compare?

In my mind its not a 'simple' trade to make. There's too many decisions to make, too much to go wrong. Why put yourself through the stress? Wait for an easy one

IMHO.
couldn't have said it better. These types of bars show up often. You have to think is it worth it or better to wait and sit on your hands. Doesn't mean taking this bar is wrong, but I see much better bars then this to wait for.

This one is playing on a tight rope if you asked me

Mike
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  • #19,706
  • Jan 27, 2009 3:52pm Jan 27, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting mbqb11
couldn't have said it better. These types of bars show up often. You have to think is it worth it or better to wait and sit on your hands. Doesn't mean taking this bar is wrong, but I see much better bars then this to wait for.

This one is playing on a tight rope if you asked me

Mike
Right. I'm glad I listed my concerns and you guys agree with them. If I'm questioning the risk to reward ratio and identifying that the bar is heading right into the pivot zone with little room to move it shouldn't be a trade that we'd take.

I'm a little anxious to trade because I had my plan set up for the USD/CHF short but I never placed my orders before I went to sleep Oh well..on to the next one.
  • #19,707
  • Jan 27, 2009 4:20pm Jan 27, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting scott087
Right. I'm glad I listed my concerns and you guys agree with them. If I'm questioning the risk to reward ratio and identifying that the bar is heading right into the pivot zone with little room to move it shouldn't be a trade that we'd take.

I'm a little anxious to trade because I had my plan set up for the USD/CHF short but I never placed my orders before I went to sleep Oh well..on to the next one.


Don't feel bad I was watching this one also,sleep and work got in the way!Stay tuned for the next one,there always is!!...Josh
  • #19,708
  • Jan 27, 2009 5:35pm Jan 27, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting scott087
I found this confluence of fib levels. I'm not sure if it is a good idea to use the smaller swing high for fibs but this is what I got.

This pin formed at the 23.6% retrace of the larger move and 38.2% retrace of the smaller move.

The low of the pin is 1.3117 and I was thinking of entering at the break of 1.3100. I'm considering taking profit at 1.3050 but the 2 bar highs at 1.3080 have me worried. SL is 1.3335 which is a 235 pip risk. Not so sure that this one is worth taking and it seems like there is a bit of traffic to the left.

Anyone...
Don't force them Scott

I see you have that pink region on your chart displaying the ppz zone. You're trying to be more in a trade than be in a god one...wait for the good ones, as Mike says they "WIll Jump Out At You"...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #19,709
  • Jan 27, 2009 6:31pm Jan 27, 2009 6:31pm
Cool thread, I'm learning a lot

One question though, what's the logic behind pin bars and inside bars and why do they work?
  • #19,710
  • Jan 27, 2009 6:53pm Jan 27, 2009 6:53pm
Quoting lolpie
Cool thread, I'm learning a lot

One question though, what's the logic behind pin bars and inside bars and why do they work?
Hey lolpie,

Pinbars are exhaustion bars. Located at the right place they tell a good story. Basically price is trying to push one way, and is rejected over a certain period time(considered quickly), to produce our pinbar. Basically price is lying where it really wants to go. This can happen for numerous reasons. Take a simple example. Price is consolidating in a range. This is known as a typical area for traders to watch. They look for a breakout of this range. Many times orders pile up on both sides. Say price tries to breakout LONG out of this range. Well if the proper orderflow has built up you can have what many refer to as a false breakout. This may come in the form of what we say as a pinbar. So the dynamics behind the bar can be numerous but located at the right places give great hints to market action.

Inside bars are consolidation bars. The bar itself is within the prior bar. This means the range is shrinking. Generally speaking when things shrink down or consolidate a breakout or "move" follows at some point. Think of it as squeezing the alst bit of toothpaste to the top and holding your finger over the end. Eventually the toothpaste will makes its way out, or breakout.

Again these are simplistic examples, but should give you a general idea

Take care
Mike
  • #19,711
  • Jan 27, 2009 7:20pm Jan 27, 2009 7:20pm
Been hanging around for several months now. reading from the very beginning, and book mark every day for this thread.

So I decide to start showing up and chat with you guys for more learning.

Ok, my first chart

Please comments, I planed this one, entry on Pinbar 50% retrace (majory of my trading is triggered at 50% of the PB) and Pinbar break.

Note: Im still on demo since Oct 08. But treating it seriously like live account. Not planing to live trading unless will double my demo account basing on the 0.5% to 1% risk per trade. up 50% so far (4mths, too slow, but not a lossing mth so far) trading mainly from daily, h4, and somet time. h1.

So im on the board. please help me out Many many thanks for you all, sepcially James16, mbq11, Jaroo, peterFM and ....(i cant list all).
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  • #19,712
  • Jan 27, 2009 7:28pm Jan 27, 2009 7:28pm
Quoting Piproo
Been hanging around for several months now. reading from the very beginning, and book mark every day for this thread.

So I decide to start showing up and chat with you guys for more learning.

Ok, my first chart

Please comments, I planed this one, entry on Pinbar 50% retrace (majory of my trading is triggered at 50% of the PB) and Pinbar break.

Note: Im still on demo since Oct 08. But treating it seriously like live account. Not planing to live trading unless will double my demo account basing on the 0.5% to 1% risk per trade. up 50% so far...

Hey Pip,

Welcome to the thread and your first post on FF too - Great to hear ab out your success so far. You are taking ALL the right steps by demo trading first and not rushing into it. Most don't and then fail for that reason. So good job there.

Your lines are all very good, but the question is...Is a bar that is stuck b/w those two levels you drew + heavy support and traffic, worth it to risk 1% of your bank roll on, and on a retrace. I can't tell you that it is or it isn't. Because that will be part of what you develop as a trader. But my advice is sitting out these so-so trades will take you a long way. There is a lot to hold up this trade, so if you do take a trade like this your stop has to get to b/e SUPER fast. Makes it very hard to play in my opinion.

Again welcome aboard

Mike
  • #19,713
  • Jan 27, 2009 8:16pm Jan 27, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pip,

Welcome to the thread and your first post on FF too - Great to hear ab out your success so far....
Thanks for the encouragement
Mike. actually, my trading is very conservative. But correct me if im wrong or u have a different opinion, as I really got a lot to learn from u guys.

one of my trading filter is the the risk/reward. as my first target is alway 1:1 and I will out 50-60% of my position most of the time after the 1:1 target. the reason I think it's tradable for chf is as follows:

1. u r right, it stuck between S&R level, so if I enter on 50% ( honestly I entered a bit higher already with my first position). so I have more space to down side and easier to reach my 1:1 first target.

2. I re do my chart now so it might can let u see what I m thinking , again, please correct me in ur toughest words. Im ready to be taught in any sort of ways I did a fibo on the last wave down, I found confluens: PB bounced off 8 ema (nearl touch 21 ema), TL, ppz (or should I call it resistence?) PB failed at 61% fibo and 50% level. well, I boxed the confluence area with pink as u can see.

Again, thx for ur comments, I already took ur notes down.
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  • #19,714
  • Jan 27, 2009 8:32pm Jan 27, 2009 8:32pm
hi, i'm newbie still learning this method not very long only 3 month so correct me if i'm wrong, i want to ask about this trade,
1. it has good place for pb (13300,tl, ppz)but, the signal before (pb + big bull from below) is worried me.
2. Below have ppz so the only one to get 1:1 r:r is only at enter at retrace,

so like my picture this trade have positive and negative concern, i decide to enter at retrace of 78.6 fibo of that pinbar.
Is there something more to support this trade thx.

And my english language is bad, hope u all can understand.
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  • #19,715
  • Jan 27, 2009 8:42pm Jan 27, 2009 8:42pm
Poplar, I think.....might work, but it's in a clear traffic zone?http://www.fjcnc.cn/data/fck/36362.gif
  • #19,716
  • Jan 27, 2009 8:45pm Jan 27, 2009 8:45pm
Quoting Piproo
Thanks for the encouragement
Mike. actually, my trading is very conservative....
Hey Pip,

The main thing I am trying to stress, is the amount of traffic this pinbar is in. If we zoom out our chart we can basically see that at best we can hope price can make it down to that lower area you have down. But that comes back to the big question I always ask. Is this really worth trading? With pinbars like the usd/chf the other day that pop up, is trading a pinbar in this much congestion worth it. I can't tell you if it is or isn't. To me after doing this for awhile, I can say those types of trades I don't even give a second though to trading personally.

I marked off two boxes on this chart. These boxes are located directly under your pin, and could cause a lot of trouble. So instead of trading a bar like this, my advice is to wait for the bars that have more room to run. Basically I don't see anything wrong with your analysis, but I just see this as an overall small window to be trading within knowing what is located to the left and beneath that pin.

Hope that makes sense and again just my views

Mike
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  • #19,717
  • Jan 27, 2009 8:46pm Jan 27, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting Piproo
Poplar, I think.....might work, but it's in a clear traffic zone?http://www.fjcnc.cn/data/fck/36362.gif
LOL funny pic

This and the chf/jpy are exactly the same in how I view them. In terms of support directly under(see previous post I made on eur/usd here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19706 ) and traffic.

Mike
  • #19,718
  • Jan 27, 2009 8:46pm Jan 27, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting Piproo
Poplar, I think.....might work, but it's in a clear traffic zone?http://www.fjcnc.cn/data/fck/36362.gif

yes you are right still in traffic i think. not clear yet.
  • #19,719
  • Jan 27, 2009 8:51pm Jan 27, 2009 8:51pm
Quoting poplar
yes you are right still in traffic i think. not clear yet.
haha Poplar, you asked my question.. and after reading the other post of Mike, I will not take this trade at all hehe
  • #19,720
  • Jan 27, 2009 9:08pm Jan 27, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pip,

I marked off two boxes on this chart. These boxes are located directly under your pin, and could cause a lot of trouble. So instead of trading a bar like this, my advice is to wait for the bars that have more room to run. Basically I don't see anything wrong with your analysis, but I just see this as an overall small window to be trading within knowing what is located to the left and beneath that pin.

Hope that makes sense and again just my views

Mike
thx mike, clear now...I think this is the area I never touched before....hmmmm, much clearer from the box now...I will to need to searching the forum more of this and start practicing this too.

Many thanks again, and another funny pic for you. http://photos.album.mop.com/c03/30/3...0121350537.jpg
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