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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,901
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:17pm Mar 20, 2007 11:17pm
What time are these reports out?
  • #2,902
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:20pm Mar 20, 2007 11:20pm
Quoting turk87
Okay when would be a good time to pull the trigger on this beutiful macd setup? Phillip you out there buddy?
Hi Turk! (this is advice I'm not going to follow b/c it's not my style of trading).... price is a few pips below resistance I have identified on my chart for a long period of time at 1.9627...MACD is giving RT....you could go short now with tight stop just above resistance (risking about 40 pips) in the hopes of catching the retrace back to the 21 (a long ways away).

I personnally think price will go up near 1.9900 before we see a retracement and another run to 2.0. Just my feeling...so I'm waiting for TC with break of 1.9627.
  • #2,903
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:24pm Mar 20, 2007 11:24pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Seems like everyone is waiting to counter trend based on RT formation....be very careful! We didn't see any profit taking today on the huge run-up. Instead we are seeing consolidation (remember RT can also be consolidation before TC). BOE releases minutes today re:interest rate decision. Looks like the market is pricing in another rate increase next meeting based on last night's CPI. I think cable may go back to the 1.9900 level if minutes show support another rate increase and if the Fed isn't MORE hawkish tomorrow (if they raise rates, we'll see a huge drop).

So, be aware of trendlines (I have a major one sitting just a few pips above price). Look for a break above with TC on hourly. Good luck all. (I'm biased long, but have learned that the market will do what it wants and we should follow). Look at price action and MACD signals!
I am biased also towards the long side: many economists are expecting a hike in the pound rate, and no move in the US. That will favor the long move.
As things are right now, that beautiful RT can become easily a TC. I will hold my horses, let this bar form completely, and look for hints in the 1 hr for a TC. If the RT is confirmed (no TC in 1 hr) i may jump.
  • #2,904
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:24pm Mar 20, 2007 11:24pm
Quoting turk87
What time are these reports out?
BOE minutes at 5:30 AM EST (9:30 GMT)
Fed at 2:15 pm EST (6:15 GMT)
  • #2,905
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:32pm Mar 20, 2007 11:32pm
Quoting alcastro
I am biased also towards the long side: many economists are expecting a hike in the pound rate, and no move in the US. That will favor the long move.
As things are right now, that beautiful RT can become easily a TC. I will hold my horses, let this bar form completely, and look for hints in the 1 hr for a TC. If the RT is confirmed (no TC in 1 hr) i may jump.
This is my plan too...and if I see a reason for downmove, I'll flip too (have learned what I think really doesn't matter, need to follow the market signals).

Also, this isn't 4hr strategy, but something I noticed back in October....on the dailies, when price falls through 100 EMA on daily and comes from below and closes above the 100 EMA a large up move (500 - 1000) pips within days happens. Price closed above 100 EMA the day before yesterday (and we had huge candle 200 pips). (price normally goes to 100 then 20 SMA (which was 1.9440)....rises for a lot of pips....then retraces back to 20 for another large upmove. This may or may not be valid but it is also playing into my bias towards 1.9900.
  • #2,906
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:32pm Mar 20, 2007 11:32pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Turk! (this is advice I'm not going to follow b/c it's not my style of trading).... price is a few pips below resistance I have identified on my chart for a long period of time at 1.9627...MACD is giving RT....you could go short now with tight stop just above resistance (risking about 40 pips) in the hopes of catching the retrace back to the 21 (a long ways away).

I personnally think price will go up near 1.9900 before we see a retracement and another run to 2.0. Just my feeling...so I'm waiting for TC with break of 1.9627.
Pips,

Are you staying away because it is a counter trend trade or because you believe news will move it up? ( You said it was not your style of trade?)

Just curious to learn.

Nanette
  • #2,907
  • Mar 20, 2007 11:48pm Mar 20, 2007 11:48pm
Therefore no clear signal for entry for GBPUSD yet? It seems to be just floating right now? If good news comes out, GBP pairs will zoom up? The same with GBPJPY, I supposed?

Anyway, the round top of EU is still forming, too. Similar to GBPUSD round top?
  • #2,908
  • Mar 21, 2007 12:13am Mar 21, 2007 12:13am
Quoting pips4uandme
Seems like everyone is waiting to counter trend based on RT formation....be very careful! We didn't see any profit taking today on the huge run-up. Instead we are seeing consolidation (remember RT can also be consolidation before TC). BOE releases minutes today re:interest rate decision. Looks like the market is pricing in another rate increase next meeting based on last night's CPI. I think cable may go back to the 1.9900 level if minutes show support another rate increase and if the Fed isn't MORE hawkish tomorrow (if they raise rates, we'll see a huge drop).

So, be aware of trendlines (I have a major one sitting just a few pips above price). Look for a break above with TC on hourly. Good luck all. (I'm biased long, but have learned that the market will do what it wants and we should follow). Look at price action and MACD signals!
Here is my GBPUSD daily trend lines. Price broke the trend line up. We may see a price drop following the top trend line and then continue up.

"Look at price action and MACD signals"

Jim
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,909
  • Edited 2:15am Mar 21, 2007 2:01am | Edited 2:15am
The candle formation I was refering to in the James16 thread is the pinbar. I use it as a 3 bar Head and Shoulder formation.

Update
Got breakeven on UsdChf.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 4Hour Strategy.zip   844 KB | 1,684 downloads
  • #2,910
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:43am Mar 21, 2007 2:43am
Quoting jarroo
Here is my GBPUSD daily trend lines. Price broke the trend line up. We may see a price drop following the top trend line and then continue up.

"Look at price action and MACD signals"

Jim

Hi Jim,

Our charts are similar. I have some longer term TL's (thick red lines and purple) on my chart from Oct. 06 and Jan. 07. Just pierced...those are what I was talking about earlier (and TC on MACD)
Attached Image
  • #2,911
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:45am Mar 21, 2007 2:45am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Jim,

Our charts are similar. I have some longer term TL's (thick red lines and purple) on my chart from Oct. 06 and Jan. 07. Just pierced...those are what I was talking about earlier (and TC on MACD)
and even clearer on 1 hour....
Attached Image
  • #2,912
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:52am Mar 21, 2007 2:52am
Currently, I'm long GBPUSD at 1.9639

Will move to break even at 1.9660
  • #2,913
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:12am Mar 21, 2007 3:12am
Quoting pips4uandme
Currently, I'm long GBPUSD at 1.9639

Will move to break even at 1.9660
Looks good pips, your with the trend with T.C. on the hour, high probabilty trade in my book. The R. T. on the 4 hour MACD concerns me. It is nicely round like a baby's butt. Also, high on the MACD :73 level. Get to break even and give it a chance.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,914
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:27am Mar 21, 2007 3:27am
Quoting jarroo
Looks good pips, your with the trend with T.C. on the hour, high probabilty trade in my book. The R. T. on the 4 hour MACD concerns me. It is nicely round like a baby's butt. Also, high on the MACD :73 level. Get to break even and give it a chance.

Jim
The possible RT look perfect should it be completed. Still long way to go. Nothing wrong with your decision. 1Hour TC looks OK. I will get breakeven as soon as possible
  • #2,915
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:28am Mar 21, 2007 3:28am
Does anyone else have this pair running in a channel and it moving horizontally to the lower TL looking to either break down, or run up very soon?
Attached Image
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,916
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:31am Mar 21, 2007 3:31am
Quoting DireXiv
Looking for a zero bounce off this pair from the 89. It's sitting on the 21 ema above 89, has testing down twice before (I got both of them ). With the jpy off today though may not do TOO much... but with the e/u and g/u possibly shaping up to give the usd some prop (off nice upper t'ls), it may come along. it's also in it's second triangle looking to break out soon.

Anyway... looks like MACD will be showing some signals soon but we're in almost an eerie call before the storm period.... so not sure how reliable they are or will be..
Great call!
  • #2,917
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:43am Mar 21, 2007 3:43am
Quoting jarroo
Looks good pips, your with the trend with T.C. on the hour, high probabilty trade in my book. The R. T. on the 4 hour MACD concerns me. It is nicely round like a baby's butt. Also, high on the MACD :73 level. Get to break even and give it a chance.

Jim
I'm w/you about the 4 hour signal...looks like the open candle is rounding too..we'll have to see... would like to get to break even too...but doesn't look like it will be happening right now.... Will keep an eye on the signals and trendlines.
  • #2,918
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:45am Mar 21, 2007 3:45am
What's a pin bar? Answer is very much appreciated!
  • #2,919
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:49am Mar 21, 2007 3:49am
Quoting DireXiv
Does anyone else have this pair running in a channel and it moving horizontally to the lower TL looking to either break down, or run up very soon?
yes....waiting for a sign.....
  • #2,920
  • Mar 21, 2007 3:49am Mar 21, 2007 3:49am
Quoting pips4uandme
What's a pin bar? Answer is very much appreciated!
Pips, you have to read the James 16 thread on price action. Its a must read. He talks about pin bars, inside bars, outside bars, double tops and lower close, etc. great stuff. It compliments Phillips strategy to a tee. i'll show you a chart of a great pin bar set up.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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