Charts Tech Analysis

Hi Debbie,

What technique do you use for scalping on ranging days? Do you also counter trade?

Your 2 cts. would be very appreciated.

(ok, now back to trend annalysis!)

Talking about Fibos, I draw them on every move so I get a feeling of the price direction for the moment, I love to zoom out on every tf to get a bigger picture. I like to watch them on 15m tf and refine my entries. Once a trend is defined, Fibos work like a charm to fine-tune entries, sl and tp´s.

I usually wait for it to close a candle below ( if going shot, of course) the next fibo level it just hit. For example, if it retraces up to fibo 61, I´ll get in when it closes below fibo 50. Sl a few pips above fibo 61.

I try to modify my position size in order to set a sl of 50 pips or more, due to high volatility we´ve been seeing these days.

...just my 2 cts.



Manuel

I will pm you the info...i don't want to clutter up the thread if it


debbie

Hi everyone, sorry for the delay. I was waiting for things to quiet down a bit after the craziness early this week.

EUR USD

After a gap opening on Sunday, the market was unable to break the previously established trendline and after bouncing off the historically strong 1.3378 resistance level, coinciding with the upward trend line, the market reversed, as we mentioned, to the previous lows of 1.3026 and bellow.
At this point, price action and historical analysis show 1.2824 to be significant support level and potential for being the swing low for a while. On the upside, Price action shows EU having trouble breaking through key 1.3080 historical resistance level and bouncing off violently.
Look for 1.3080 to break to offer potential confirmation of swing low at 1.2824 and break of upward trend line for potential trend reversal.

Nick

USD JPY


The 90.91 main resistance level held and after some more bouncing in that 90.91-90.05 channel, the market strongly broke 90.05 and fell to the previous lows at the 87.23 level. 87.23 still acting as strong support as it provided a good bounce almost back to 90.05.
87.23 represents a historic low on the UJ, not seen since 1995. Obviously key support at this point. Look for a break of 87.23 as a strong sign of continuing downtrnend. Market could establish a new channel between 87.23 and the
90.05 level, given the historical significance of a break bellow. On the upside, look for a break of 90.05 and 90.91, still key resistance level.

Nick

USD CHF

As previously mentioned, the break of 1.1276 key resistance level started a strong continuation move and confirmed upward trend.
1.1578 is important historical level for longer term. Look for a close above and a break of the channel to confirm continued move upward.
On the downside, 1.1276 should now be acting as main support level. 1.1489 very strong historically as well and provided resistance on upward move. Might provide good support now, as seen from first retest after breakthrough.


Nick

USD CAD

The break of very strong resistance level 1.2337 confirmed the continuation of upward trend on the CAD. 1.2337 now serving as strong support, perfect example of great technical setup to take a trade. As previous resistance becomes support level once broken and as strong as this level was before being broken, one could expect with a very high probability the same level to provide very strong support if retested on the downside. (This is very obvious knowledge for some but not everyone and I am explaining this for those in the process of learning about technical basics like these.)
1.2740 very strong historical level. If broken, uptrend will probably continue to previous highs seen on the daily chart and retest the 1.2978 level.
On the downside, 1.2337 now acting as very strong support, as previously mentioned. If retested, could provide a good range-trading opportunity.
If broken, look for potential signs of trend reversal and retest of the lows around the 1.1772 level, with intermediary support levels at 1.2069 and 1.1991.

Nick

Hey, were is everybody, lonely in here

Hi everyone,

here are the new charts.


EUR USD.
Market did retest previous lows at 1.2825 but didn't manage to substantially break through. 1.3330 proving again to be really strong resistance level and creating a channel with now strong support level 1.3080. Look for a break on either side for a retest of the lows on the downside or a confirmation of trend reversal on the upside. Personally looking for a trend change at this point and for 1.2764 to be the swing low for a while.
Both levels 1.3080 and 1.3330 should provide good trade opportunities with tight stops and pretty high success probability until the price breaks out of that channel.


Nick

USD JPY

The 90.05 level provided more resistance, as anticipated, and a bounce back to the 88.47 support before being broken. Looking for a trend reversal on UJ as well. 87.23 is, again, historically extremely strong and could provide a very good entry on a retest. Be careful, as a break of 87.23 could drop the market much lower.
On the upside, look for a break of key 90.91 resistance level.
A retest at that level could also provide a good entry for a bounce back, depending on price action but I would advise not to hold short positions without tight stops on UJ at this point. After that, several resistance levels at 91.24, 91.56, 92.30 and 93.90. A break of previous swing high 94.62 would confirm a trend reversal on the longer term.

Nick

USD CHF

Continuation of upward trend on the CHF within previously established channel. Market just bouncing off 1.1578 resistance level.
If broken, look for a retest of previous swing high 1.1715 and a break for confirmation of uptrend. Above that, 1.1790 and 1.1870 could provide some resistance as well.
On the downside, 1.1276 is still key support, as well as 1.1129 bellow that. Look for a potential break of the lower trendline and a retest of 1.1276.

1.1276 could also provide good entry for continuation upward after a retest.

Nick

USD CAD

CAD ranging for a while now in the same channel but showing obvious signs of consolidation (look at weekly chart). Pressure building up for a breakthrough on either side. Great environment for range trading but control trades very seriously and do not let the market go against you in this kind of environment.
1.2337 support broken on friday's typically exaggerated moves, now acting as resistance level.
Market finding support at the previously established 1.2023 level. Look for a break of that level and after that, a retest of the lows at 1.1772 and potential break for confirmation of downtrend.
A retest of 1.2337 could provide good shorting opportunity for longer term downtrend potential. On the upside, still looking at the 1.2740 resistance level and after that, previous swing highs at 1.2978 for potential breakthrough and confirmation of uptrend.

Nick

The cable has found both strong resistance at 1.4330 area and support at the 1.4000 area, we had a nice move up during the london session and now testing the 1.4330 area again, i am looking for a break out about the 1.4330 resistance to test 1.4397 and then finial target around the 1.4470-1.4490 area........there is a lot of new coming out today..protect your profits

Hey Nick...you were up early last night, glad to see you back

Wow, your charts look clean, do you trade with other indi's or just with tl and p's........lol, looks like my charts are on drugs

Hi Debbie,

thanks for the analysis. Yes, I was up pretty much all night.
Not a good time to sleep though, going to wait until this afternoon to take a nap
As far as the charts go, it's true I like everything to be very clear. It helps me get a better "overall" visual impression of all the S/R levels, channels, etc...
I'm kind of old school about that, like to keep it simple. I also like to take off the "grid" on the chart. I feel that you can then fill the void visually, so to speak, with your own grid and patterns etc...I only use Fibonaccci besides that, which I still consider an indicator, technically speaking, but just for confirmation.
Looking at the same areas for GU. Market is fighting previous very strong 1.4375 level. After that, 1.4474 I have as strong resistance, and above that 1.4557 has shown strong support historically, going back to mid Nov. early Dec. Both areas should have decent risk/reward but GU tends to overshoot a lot, especially in this environment lately, so I think I'm going to stay away personally. 1.4557 is very strong historically as well and could potentially correlate very strongly with EU 1.3330 level so I might use it as confirmation for potential short on EU if retest at that level, depending on PA, of course.


Nick

I stopped in to say hi. Nick, I looked over all your charts and brought myself up to date on the thread. I trade only EUR/USD, but trying to learn how to exploit correlations, ala Alg.

Thanks for posting the charts and for your explanations. Clear on both parts.

Good trading to you,