Do you want to make some money?? | Forex Factory

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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 16, 2009 9:40pm Jan 21, 2009 3:30pm | Edited Feb 16, 2009 9:40pm

A LITTLE BACKGROUND ON ME

First of all I have been trading live for over 2 years now and had some time demo trading prior to that. I have read somewhere in the neighborhood of about 8,000 pages of material relating to trading. I have payed for the systems, the forums, the fancy indicators and I have concluded that almost all of it is less than useless. I don't hate the people who suckered me into paying for garbage because from the beginning to now they have been the truest source of reality for me which is YOU CAN"T BUY SUCCESS in this business you have to BECOME a SUCCESS. I have had success in the Daily time-frame only and I have no shame saying that because I know how hard it has been to get to that and highly doubt that many have even experienced this amount of success.

SOME THEORY

I believe that all that you need is the chart. You do NOT need indicators or multiple time frames. How could I say something so outrageous??? Losing money to these worthless ideas thats how.

2 HEADS ARE BETTER THAN 1

So what do I propose? Lets exchange ideas but we are going to do it a little bit differently than everyone else.

POSTING GUIDELINES

1) No indicators of any kind don't even mention those.
2) Original ideas
3) No more post bashing kids, go make your own post. If what you have to say is NOT of any true value don't bother. I want this to be truly helpful to other people.

SYSTEM DESIGN

I will make my best effort to prove that a system can be designed which can be duplicated and explained mathematically. After all what are we doing here? It's a numbers game right?

CLOSING COMMENTS

I have yearned for a thread like this since the day I joined this forum and have not seen it yet so I thought I would give it a shot. I wanted to give you guys a little background on myself so that you could see that I am serious and I do have something different that warrants typing. This discussion is open to anyone who is sick and tired of indicator land or paying for worthless opinions. If you want to just make some money this discussion is open to you to.

  • #2
  • Jan 21, 2009 3:54pm Jan 21, 2009 3:54pm
COUNT ME IN BRO.........
the little letters under my username says it all!!!
forexflash
  • #3
  • Jan 21, 2009 4:16pm Jan 21, 2009 4:16pm
The way that I draw support and resistance is a bit like fractals in that I look for a price that has remained un-challenged on both sides (left and right) for a certain amount of bars. This allows me to rate the importance of one area over another. Typically I draw them like this:

Color Bars Unchallenged Strength
White 100 or more Strong
Orange-Red 50 - 100 Medium Strong
Blue 25-50 Medium Weak
Yellow 10-25 Weak

The only rule I observe when drawing these is to only have the most recent Weak price plotted on the chart. The others just stay on the chart. When drawing these rate them on how they are now. What is a weak price today could be a strong price tomorrow. 2 Charts attached one with dots above bar/s that generated the signal.

[IMG]file:///tmp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG][IMG]file:///tmp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg[/IMG]
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s&r chart.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: s&r chart Dots.png Size: 15 KB
  • #4
  • Jan 21, 2009 4:29pm Jan 21, 2009 4:29pm
This is going to be the easiest part of this post. Trade the smallest amount allowed by your broker for now. As we make progress we will touch on this topic again.
  • #5
  • Jan 21, 2009 4:56pm Jan 21, 2009 4:56pm

WHAT DO BARS TELL US?


The most important thing about a bar is what it represents. Does it represent buying or selling? Is the strength of the buying or selling consistent, increasing or decreasing.

BUYING OR SELLING

If the bar close is above the open it represents buying.
If the bar close is below the open it represents selling.

CONSISTENT,INCREASING, OR DECREASING

Bars that represent buying

If the open-low is equal to the high-close the strength of the bar has remained consistent.

If the open-low is more than the high-close the strength of the bar has increased.

If the open-low is less than the high-close the strength of the bar has decreased.

Bars that represent selling


If the high-open is equal to the close-low the strength of the bar has remained consistent.


If the high-open is more than the close-low the strength of the bar has increased.

If the high-open is less than the close-low the strength of the bar has decreased.


FILTERS

I don't bother with any bars that have the open or close in the middle 1/3 of the bar. I also stay away from anything that doesn't make a 10 bar high/low. The exception to this rule are inside bars. If the bar preceding the IB makes a 10 bar high/low then I will look at it, otherwise it's out.






  • #6
  • Jan 21, 2009 5:00pm Jan 21, 2009 5:00pm
Quoting Chadrlz
This is going to be the easiest part of this post. Trade the smallest amount allowed by your broker for now. As we make progress we will touch on this topic again.
MM should go beyond lot sizing. What about stop-loss and take-profit levels . . . surely your system doesn't ignore those
  • #7
  • Jan 21, 2009 5:33pm Jan 21, 2009 5:33pm
LongToBeFree you are right, I have a few ideas but they are far from perfect.

I have often wondered if a stop should be time based, range based, percentage based, or signal based.
When you pick a trade do you give it every single break possible to exit in profit? That's what I am trying to move towards.
  • #8
  • Jan 21, 2009 5:44pm Jan 21, 2009 5:44pm
Quoting Chadrlz
LongToBeFree you are right, I have a few ideas but they are far from perfect.

I have often wondered if a stop should be time based, range based, percentage based, or signal based.
When you pick a trade do you give it every single break possible to exit in profit? That's what I am trying to move towards.
Indeed - it is a hard balance between protecting your money and letting your trade "breathe".

I've recently discovered ATR and it makes sense to me. Basically, it gives you the "range" that your pair has moved in for the last X periods. If you take a sample (10 and 20 are the most common periods) and then set your stops to 2 * ATR then that gives you a pretty good number. It makes sense - if your trade has already lost more twice the pips of the average then it's probably not a good trade.

I'm not sure if this is the perfect method for your system, but its something to think about.
  • #9
  • Jan 21, 2009 6:25pm Jan 21, 2009 6:25pm
LongToBeFree thanks for the suggestion. Does anyone else have any ideas regarding SL and TP amounts?
  • #10
  • Jan 21, 2009 6:42pm Jan 21, 2009 6:42pm
Hi,

Nice thread,

For me I always look towards where the next major line of support or resistance is when calculating my stops and TP. Its always good to scale out of a positon if you are nearing the next line of defence. If things give way you can always add some more as the trade progresses.
  • #11
  • Jan 21, 2009 6:50pm Jan 21, 2009 6:50pm
Boy this seems so similar to what i have been saying for months. Heaven forbid someone actually listen now.
  • #12
  • Jan 21, 2009 8:23pm Jan 21, 2009 8:23pm
Steelhead if you have something to say that you think would be beneficial to my thread don't hold back. Let's make some money here.
  • #13
  • Jan 21, 2009 9:06pm Jan 21, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting Chadrlz
LongToBeFree thanks for the suggestion. Does anyone else have any ideas regarding SL and TP amounts?
Hi.. maybe u can shift SL to the resistance and support risking only 2%.
  • #14
  • Jan 21, 2009 9:07pm Jan 21, 2009 9:07pm
Hello all. Great idea with the "no indicators" post. With regards to S/R, I've been trying to piece together information I've come across in this forum from various sources and am trying to work on how confluence of S/R lines such as pivots and fibs might work in trading.

Been giving the Eur/Usd a lot of focus lately since it generally has the best spread, and its responsiveness to fib retraces over the H1 TF seems interesting. I'm trying to look at how scaling up to higher TFs can affect my S/R estimates, there are still sum transient levels that I have not captured. Any thoughts on S/Rs in relation to TFs?
  • #15
  • Jan 21, 2009 9:30pm Jan 21, 2009 9:30pm
Can Anyone, even with the best intentions, post an idea that wont be submited to the 'Hey, I got a better idea from your idea and it only needs you to change this to make it better.'

sigh. probably not.

Reading and absorbing. Please continue.

...and yes. I have a couple but would rather hear the entire thought process before submitting them.

Bemac
  • #16
  • Jan 21, 2009 9:47pm Jan 21, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting Bemac
Can Anyone, even with the best intentions, post an idea that wont be submited to the 'Hey, I got a better idea from your idea and it only needs you to change this to make it better.'

sigh. probably not.

Reading and absorbing. Please continue.

...and yes. I have a couple but would rather hear the entire thought process before submitting them.

Bemac
Bemac, your threads are legend man. No free lunch is up there in my list of forex gospels.
  • #17
  • Jan 21, 2009 10:05pm Jan 21, 2009 10:05pm
As far as shifting to SL S&R that's an interesting idea. I'm trying to stay away from the multiple time frame approach as I have experienced that it is too much effort and stress for too little pay off. I have also read a great deal about Fibonacci however the affect that it has on trading is Psychological and I am trying to put together a system that is entirely Mechanical.




Benac I am not real good at reading between the lines. I can't tell whether you are insulted by my post or irritated or what. If you have something that will benefit me by all means let me hear it otherwise...
  • #18
  • Jan 21, 2009 10:11pm Jan 21, 2009 10:11pm
The point about Fibs is just that - its psychological. Its behavioral finance, just market sentiments and price action. But that's basically what S/Rs generally tend to be isn't it, the sum of market players' perception of price and value of the underlying instrument?
  • #19
  • Jan 22, 2009 2:26am Jan 22, 2009 2:26am
Quoting Chadrlz
As far as shifting to SL S&R that's an interesting idea. I'm trying to stay away from the multiple time frame approach as I have experienced that it is too much effort and stress for too little pay off. I have also read a great deal about Fibonacci however the affect that it has on trading is Psychological and I am trying to put together a system that is entirely Mechanical.




Benac I am not real good at reading between the lines. I can't tell whether you are insulted by my post or irritated or what. If you have something that will benefit...

in order to minimize ur stress n time consumed, jump to longer Time Frame.. it's much easier...
  • #20
  • Jan 22, 2009 4:45am Jan 22, 2009 4:45am
There is a lot of common ground between the best threads on FF.

Have a look at No Brainer Trades, the basic principles are the same and time frames is the individuals choice.

I'll add what I can here.
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