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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,821
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:48pm Mar 19, 2007 1:48pm
anyone looking to get in short on the AUD/USD?

4Hs MACD is turning down,
  • #2,822
  • Edited 5:43pm Mar 19, 2007 2:35pm | Edited 5:43pm
anyone looking to get in short on the AUD/USD?4Hs MACD is turning down

It's too early, the signal you are referring to is unreliable. Look at previous RT which resulted in valley, a continuation signal. This may happen again. A forming doji-dragonfly is a sign of uncertainty. We need some kind of bearish confirmation from other method like shooting star, long red candle, old resistance or Fibo level.

http://forexbarometer.com/graph/aud-usd-070319H4.gif
Few hours later...
http://forexbarometer.com/graph/aud-usd-070319H4-2.gif
Now you may calculate what your loss might be in case you went short. A typical trend continuaton.
Ben
  • #2,823
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:45pm Mar 19, 2007 3:45pm
Hey everyone, Got a textbook trendline test goin on now on the USD/JPY. We will most probably see a T/C signal next. I know Tamara is watching. I posted the 1 hour so you get a good look at it.
Attached Image
  • #2,824
  • Mar 19, 2007 3:48pm Mar 19, 2007 3:48pm
Hey Tamara, Excuse me 117.76, however I did say approx. Did I call that pull back or did I call that pullback. ( Post 2800)..... Now watch the bounce off the trend line when we get that T/C. I guess this makes up for that nasty gap that ruined my GBP/JPY last night. LOL

Jim
  • #2,825
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:23pm Mar 19, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting hard1head1
Hey everyone, Got a textbook trendline test goin on now on the USD/JPY. We will most probably see a T/C signal next. I know Tamara is watching. I posted the 1 hour so you get a good look at it.
Jim, nice work. I feel you are looking for my input. I can not watch, of course, all day long but specially for you...

The pair is working on a rising flag. If you convert your chart to 30min, you will see it clearly. I am still long, with 150 pips gain in one single trade (theee trade). In this formation you can see three stacking tops but in a reverse, ascending order. 3 is a critical number in Japanese charting techniques. It will either create the fourth top and finally a breakout to the upside. If the fourth top is only a copy, or similar to the second (middle) small top, then the bullish power is fading and I will join the other party once bears invite me. Just some thoughts. You have some magic power, Jim, to pull me back.
  • #2,826
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:34pm Mar 19, 2007 4:34pm
I think you Kiwi might be finally turning, Tam.

Jim
  • #2,827
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:50pm Mar 19, 2007 4:50pm
Phillip,

A question about trading, Please:
Instead of trading 4hr chart, how about trading daily, even weekly chart with MACD? Yes there needs to be bigger SL but that does not mean bigger risk. It only means, with small capital, cannot trade too many. But again, the gains are big if you trade weekly chart. Take a look at GBPJPY weekly. It has decisively crossed the 8 and 21 for the first time since 2005 July or so! is it not a worthy trade only if you can afford the stop loss size and trade in a very limitted way (not too many trades same time)?

What I am trying to get from you is, can we trade this MACD method on weekly? How confidently we can use this in weekly
Thanks.
-Chandra
  • #2,828
  • Mar 19, 2007 5:19pm Mar 19, 2007 5:19pm
The 1hr and 4hr charts are showing a downtrending MACD on the USD/JPY.

Could we possibly see a bounce off the 21EMA??


Note: I think we might see some choppy action after the japanese markets open because of the BoJ announcement out due later in the session.

What do you guys think??

BTW: complete forex newbie here, so bear with me
  • #2,829
  • Mar 19, 2007 6:06pm Mar 19, 2007 6:06pm
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,

A question about trading, Please:
Instead of trading 4hr chart, how about trading daily, even weekly chart with MACD? Yes there needs to be bigger SL but that does not mean bigger risk. It only means, with small capital, cannot trade too many. But again, the gains are big if you trade weekly chart. Take a look at GBPJPY weekly. It has decisively crossed the 8 and 21 for the first time since 2005 July or so! is it not a worthy trade only if you can afford the stop loss size and trade in a very limitted way (not too many trades same time)?

What I am trying to get from you is, can we trade this MACD method on weekly? How confidently we can use this in weekly
Thanks.
-Chandra

Not to speak for Phillip but yes you can trade the weekly charts with this system. This type of trading is what the institutional traders do. You have to be able to take big drawdowns esp. with this pair. Could you handle 200-300 pip reversals if you knew you were right? The gby/jpy is moving crazy these days with ups and downs of 100's of pips. You also benefit from the carry trade going long with this pair ( this is the real secret of forex for those who don't know). You would earn $20 a day interest per 1 standard lot ($1000 invested) no matter what direction the trade went. Let me sell you one of my dreams with forex. Have $100k in your account and buy 25 standard lots of the gbp/jpy going long. Make $500 a day in interest no matter what the pair does. How's that for a life?


Well They say that there’s a pie up in the sky; Waiting for me when I die; But between the day you’re born and when you die; they never seem to hear you when you cry; So as sure as the sun will shine; I’m going to get my share of what is mine….. Jimmy Cliff

  • #2,830
  • Mar 19, 2007 6:07pm Mar 19, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting hard1head1
I think you Kiwi might be finally turning, Tam.

Jim
It was a losing trade. I was stopped out at 0.7015. I am looking to re-enter.
  • #2,831
  • Mar 19, 2007 7:03pm Mar 19, 2007 7:03pm
guys pls look at E/U , luks ike a TC signal
  • #2,832
  • Mar 19, 2007 7:19pm Mar 19, 2007 7:19pm
NOW, you can start looking for a signal on the Aussie, it just broke an uptrend line.

J
  • #2,833
  • Mar 19, 2007 9:29pm Mar 19, 2007 9:29pm
Here is what I am looking at:

GBP/USD: I entered a long trade 3 candles ago. But...well, ranging ...ranger. Hopefully it will bounce from the 8MA and break a slight resistance that a TL at 1.9458 is presenting. MACD is currently showing a B, but I (eternal optimist) will wait for a morph into a TC.

Us/JP: I entered a long trade this morning after seeing everybody riding this pair. So envious of the joy of others I jumped in. Now I am showing a small profit of 47 pips, and already moved my s/l to b/e. Seems like everybody in this pair is waiting for the words from the BOJ and then there is a holiday in japan. So maybe i will close this trade in a while if there is not that much movement.

Eur/US: I am waiting for a bounce from the 21 MA. If it continues down I wont trade it. So..I am looking here for a TC.

Any thoughts?
  • #2,834
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:04pm Mar 19, 2007 10:04pm
Quoting alcastro
Here is what I am looking at:



Us/JP: I entered a long trade this morning after seeing everybody riding this pair. So envious of the joy of others I jumped in. Now I am showing a small profit of 47 pips, and already moved my s/l to b/e. Seems like everybody in this pair is waiting for the words from the BOJ and then there is a holiday in japan. So maybe i will close this trade in a while if there is not that much movement.



Any thoughts?
On the 1 hr usd/jpy, there's something the James16 group calls a pin bar. the shoulders are within three pips so I'm not sure it's valid. If it is, it's going down. I put a sell below the bar that just closed 3 min ago on FXSol Accucharts.
  • #2,835
  • Mar 19, 2007 10:08pm Mar 19, 2007 10:08pm
Quoting pip pirate 2
Not to speak for Phillip but yes you can trade the weekly charts with this system. This type of trading is what the institutional traders do. You have to be able to take big drawdowns esp. with this pair. Could you handle 200-300 pip reversals if you knew you were right? The gby/jpy is moving crazy these days with ups and downs of 100's of pips. You also benefit from the carry trade going long with this pair ( this is the real secret of forex for those who don't know). You would earn $20 a day interest per 1 standard lot ($1000 invested) no matter what direction the trade went. Let me sell you one of my dreams with forex. Have $100k in your account and buy 25 standard lots of the gbp/jpy going long. Make $500 a day in interest no matter what the pair does. How's that for a life?

I have been looking at this pair for a some time now but have not traded it simply because of the high spread cost. On my platform 9 pips. I placed both charts usd/jpy and gbp/jpy side x side and both look/move very similar.

Are there other advantanges to trading this pair vs. usd/jpy?
  • #2,836
  • Mar 19, 2007 11:21pm Mar 19, 2007 11:21pm
Nice job today (yesterday) to all you USD/JPY longs!

Not a lot of time today to post. Had 1 small trade today on usdchf, where I bailed out early for +15 pips (again, had I stuck to the plan and let the trade run, it would have been +65 w/in 10 minutes of closing out -- really have to work on trusting my plan!).

Monthly record for 4 hour system is: 3 wins (+86 pips w/o spread), 1 BE and 0 loss.

My plan for the week is to look for opportunities to:

 

  1. Short USDCHF
  2. Buy GBPUSD
  3. Short USDJPY

Haven't had time to prepare detailed plan. Will be looking for MACD signals combined with price paterns to enter any of the above mentioned trade scenarios.

Happy Trading everyone!

  • #2,837
  • Mar 19, 2007 11:24pm Mar 19, 2007 11:24pm
Quoting ramrocket
I have been looking at this pair for a some time now but have not traded it simply because of the high spread cost. On my platform 9 pips. I placed both charts usd/jpy and gbp/jpy side x side and both look/move very similar.

Are there other advantanges to trading this pair vs. usd/jpy?
Never traded the pair, but I think people like it b/c of the strong trend, high volatility and interest roll over. Hear it is like standing in front of a rolling freight train when it starts moving!!! Think the volatility makes up for the high spread b/c it is easily covered if you are on the right side of the trade.
  • #2,838
  • Mar 19, 2007 11:29pm Mar 19, 2007 11:29pm
Quoting Chandra
Phillip,

A question about trading, Please:
Instead of trading 4hr chart, how about trading daily, even weekly chart with MACD? Yes there needs to be bigger SL but that does not mean bigger risk. It only means, with small capital, cannot trade too many. But again, the gains are big if you trade weekly chart. Take a look at GBPJPY weekly. It has decisively crossed the 8 and 21 for the first time since 2005 July or so! is it not a worthy trade only if you can afford the stop loss size and trade in a very limitted way (not too many trades same time)?

What I am trying to get from you is, can we trade this MACD method on weekly? How confidently we can use this in weekly
Thanks.
-Chandra
Hi Chandra,

Just food for thought....the longer the time frame, the more we should pay attention to fundamentals that could affect price along w/technical setup. Be prepared to follow news more closely when trading more than a day or two. (just my thoughts).

Personally, I like to follow news (and figure out what it means b/c it is interesting. However, I don't like trading w/that variable...it really becomes overwhelming trying to figure out technical and fundamental variables and how they may or may not affect price. I already have difficulty sticking w/my analysis, don't need more reasons to jump ship early ).
  • #2,839
  • Edited 11:53pm Mar 19, 2007 11:35pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting pips4uandme

Monthly record for 4 hour system is: 3 wins (+86 pips w/o spread), 1 BE and 0 loss.

Nice one! 0 loss!

Up to now, I am still having a hard time reading when to enter the market. Looking primarily at EU. Then GU and UC also. Likes to watch UJ, GJ as it moves fast, but dont have the heart to keep up with it just yet.


Looking at GU 4h, the MACD seems to be forming a double top, after a lower high. So does that mean GU is headed south in the next few candles?
  • #2,840
  • Mar 20, 2007 12:49am Mar 20, 2007 12:49am
Quoting Pinggarcia
Nice one! 0 loss!

Up to now, I am still having a hard time reading when to enter the market. Looking primarily at EU. Then GU and UC also. Likes to watch UJ, GJ as it moves fast, but dont have the heart to keep up with it just yet.


Looking at GU 4h, the MACD seems to be forming a double top, after a lower high. So does that mean GU is headed south in the next few candles?
Hi Pinggarcia!

Your chart must be different than mine, because I don't have a double top or a lower high on the closed candle (I've attached a copy); the pound has been on a choppy uptrend/ranging pattern all week. Expect to see a break to the upside tonight if CPI is higher than forecast (and maybe we can see action again). If you have a double top, with a sell trigger and favorable r:r and it fits your plan, then you should make the trade. I see a possible TC pattern forming (for upmove), but this pair has been turning for a few pips (about 20) at the current price level all day. Personally, I'm sitting out and waiting for a clearer directional indicator (but I'm pretty cautious).
Attached Image
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