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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #19,141
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:18am Jan 20, 2009 8:18am
Quoting unlv_tj
Is anyone else still in the CHFJPY Weekly Long Pinbar trade?

I took the weekly pin bar on the CHFJPY, due to the location and then the shape of the bar. I had believed that the JPY was going to look weak this upcoming week. Even with Obama stepping into office.

It reached up and hit my Limit Buy, then went about 30 pips short of my first target profit. After that, it has been all down hill. I am still in the trade by about 30 pips (set a long stop loss in case of the Obama situation today).

Just wondering if anyone else took the trade, and...
I'll pony up and tell you that I took that trade based on what I saw on weekly/daily. PB broke then went south. Stopped out for loss. This is where equity management comes in. I'd welcome any commentary on why someone did NOT take that trade. I'll lick my wounds later as my other trades have been doing quite well. Thanks in advance.
  • #19,142
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:19am Jan 20, 2009 8:19am
Quoting unlv_tj
Is anyone else still in the CHFJPY Weekly Long Pinbar trade?

I took the weekly pin bar on the CHFJPY, due to the location and then the shape of the bar. I had believed that the JPY was going to look weak this upcoming week. Even with Obama stepping into office.

It reached up and hit my Limit Buy, then went about 30 pips short of my first target profit. After that, it has been all down hill. I am still in the trade by about 30 pips (set a long stop loss in case of the Obama situation today).

Just wondering if anyone else took the trade, and...

I was watching this trade also.I was waiting for a break of the pin high,never happened.
  • #19,143
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:21am Jan 20, 2009 8:21am
I'm looking for bulls now.
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  • #19,144
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:22am Jan 20, 2009 8:22am
Quoting jlmac27
I was watching this trade also.I was waiting for a break of the pin high,never happened.
The weekly pin?

My weekly pin high is 81.37, and this week's high is 82.01, so by my broker feed it brok by over 60 pips. So I was in nicely before it started to bottom out.

Anyway, you cannot win them all, and looking back, I would take this trade again.

I am just seeing if anyone passed on this trade, and the reason for it (other than the different broker feeds).

Thanks!
  • #19,145
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:29am Jan 20, 2009 8:29am
Quoting unlv_tj
The weekly pin?

My weekly pin high is 81.37, and this week's high is 82.01, so by my broker feed it brok by over 60 pips. So I was in nicely before it started to bottom out.

Anyway, you cannot win them all, and looking back, I would take this trade again.

I am just seeing if anyone passed on this trade, and the reason for it (other than the different broker feeds).

Thanks!
I passed on this pin. Attached is a post i made to the private forum on Sunday afternoon - I followed my original thoughts and stayed out of it due to the bars to immediate left of the pin.

"I have spotted a possible set up on the weekly.

Pin bar with a long nose at a swing low. The low coincides with a previous major swing low (chart 1) and 61% fib of the most recent swing low to high (chart 2).

There is a successful pin bar right above it however and there is arguably not much 'space' around it due to the bars almost immediately to the left.

I haven't fully decided on my course of action but it doesnt appear to be an A+ trade so I am leaning towards sitting this one out. Any other thoughts or opinions welcome."
  • #19,146
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:37am Jan 20, 2009 8:37am
Also stopped out - 7870 (289 pips - ouch!). Although looking back it met my criteria and I would take it again. Would be interesting to hear if any of the more experienced members took this and how they played it?

Quoting unlv_tj
Is anyone else still in the CHFJPY Weekly Long Pinbar trade?

I took the weekly pin bar on the CHFJPY, due to the location and then the shape of the bar. I had believed that the JPY was going to look weak this upcoming week. Even with Obama stepping into office.

It reached up and hit my Limit Buy, then went about 30 pips short of my first target profit. After that, it has been all down hill. I am still in the trade by about 30 pips (set a long stop loss in case of the Obama situation today).

Just wondering if anyone else took the trade, and...
  • #19,147
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:51am Jan 20, 2009 8:51am
Quoting unlv_tj
The weekly pin?

My weekly pin high is 81.37, and this week's high is 82.01, so by my broker feed it brok by over 60 pips. So I was in nicely before it started to bottom out.

Anyway, you cannot win them all, and looking back, I would take this trade again.

I am just seeing if anyone passed on this trade, and the reason for it (other than the different broker feeds).

Thanks!

HUH? I guess different feeds,that is off quite a bit though,I also thought it looked like a good set up.Like you said can't win them all.
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  • #19,148
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:53am Jan 20, 2009 8:53am
Quoting rooster
I passed on this pin. Attached is a post i made to the private forum on Sunday afternoon - I followed my original thoughts and stayed out of it due to the bars to immediate left of the pin.

"I have spotted a possible set up on the weekly.

Pin bar with a long nose at a swing low. The low coincides with a previous major swing low (chart 1) and 61% fib of the most recent swing low to high (chart 2).

[i][color=red]There is a successful pin bar right above it however and there is arguably not...
I had a bunch of people ask about this yesterday in my webinar. These are important points when you have no space. Look how clustered and tight price is on the weekly. This will make it difficult for these pins to be as successful as a pin at a true swing low point. One important point is that people who have their charts way zoomed in, bars like this look like a lot better locations then they are. Zoom out a bit, gives a more clear view if you ask me.(the chart I posted is still too zoomed in for me but I did it to show the minor PPZ)

Here is a chart with what actually held it down. We have a minor PPZ within all this traffic. If you were to take this trade(which I think one shouldn't), you might want to stick your buy ABOVE this area. Again for those that took a loss, like kiss said your MM is in place and you move on.



Have a great one

Mike

edit attached a pic of the zoom I personally use and one can see more clearly the large amount of traffic we were in
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  • #19,149
  • Jan 20, 2009 8:57am Jan 20, 2009 8:57am
Quoting dpfuller
Also stopped out - 7870 (289 pips - ouch!). Although looking back it met my criteria and I would take it again. Would be interesting to hear if any of the more experienced members took this and how they played it?
I took the long too, and got stopped out for a loss

The only odds that were going aginst the trade were...

1) Against the trend

2) Sideways market/not at a swing low/ in traffic

But looking at the shape, the H&S and the overall momentum of the Yen crosses, this was a strong setup.

Keeping all the victories and losses aside this has to be one great example to all those reading this thread and trying ro apply the method as the "HOLY GRAIL"

The system is great but like any other profitable system it is not the holy grail.

Losses excepted and back to life.

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #19,150
  • Jan 20, 2009 9:00am Jan 20, 2009 9:00am
Quoting mbqb11
I had a bunch of people ask about this yesterday in my webinar. These are important points when you have no space. Look how clustered and tight price is on the weekly. This will make it difficult for these pins to be as successful as a pin at a true swing low point. One important point is that people who have their charts way zoomed in, bars like this look like a lot better locations then they are. Zoom out a bit, gives a more clear view if you ask me.(the chart I posted is still too zoomed in for me but I did it to show the minor PPZ)

Here is...
Correct Mike and thnx,

It was a great learning experience

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #19,151
  • Jan 20, 2009 9:02am Jan 20, 2009 9:02am
Quoting mbqb11
I had a bunch of people ask about this yesterday in my webinar. These are important points when you have no space. Look how clustered and tight price is on the weekly. This will make it difficult for these pins to be as successful as a pin at a true swing low point. One important point is that people who have their charts way zoomed in, bars like this look like a lot better locations then they are. Zoom out a bit, gives a more clear view if you ask me.(the chart I posted is still too zoomed in for me but I did it to show the minor PPZ)

Here is...
I was hoping that one of you sluggers would weigh in on the CHFJPYdiscussion. I got my wish. Thanks for your take on that trade Mike!
  • #19,152
  • Jan 20, 2009 9:10am Jan 20, 2009 9:10am
I took EURJPY weekly PIN , not stopped out so far but it looks very similar to CHFJPY trade.
  • #19,153
  • Jan 20, 2009 9:28am Jan 20, 2009 9:28am
Mike, thank you very much. The side ways traffic and the fact it was over all against the trend told me to risk very little. So I stand to lose little, but I stand to gain A LOT in knowledge.

So overall, I am happy I took the trade.

I had a PPZ drawn at about 79.00, or right towards the bottom of the pin. But I didn't have the PPZ at 81.5 (or around where you drew your PPZ), so I missed out on this.

Had I seen this, I probably would have passed on the trade.

Much to learn.

Thank you again!
  • #19,154
  • Jan 20, 2009 9:29am Jan 20, 2009 9:29am
Quoting alter
I took EURJPY weekly PIN , not stopped out so far but it looks very similar to CHFJPY trade.
I passed on the EurJpy Pin as the close was not within the previous candles body.

I was also stopped on ChfJpy though.
  • #19,155
  • Jan 20, 2009 9:34am Jan 20, 2009 9:34am
Another hand going up here for a loss on CHFJPY. Looking at the setup again I think it's easier to see why this pb didn't meet all the criteria for an A+ setup. Time to re-group, take it on the chin and move on...

So here's a trade I took this afternoon on EURJPY off a PPZ, low for the day, and confluence with lows and PPZ's on the GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY. Took profit at 1:1. Made up for some of the weekly loss, so all is not bad for the end of the day!
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  • #19,156
  • Jan 20, 2009 9:46am Jan 20, 2009 9:46am
Looking at the daily/weekly nzd/jpy chart very interesting if we test the lows.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #19,157
  • Jan 20, 2009 9:58am Jan 20, 2009 9:58am
Whats your thougths on this one if h1 will close as a pb. I have already lost 2 times trying to pick the bottom on u/j.
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  • #19,158
  • Jan 20, 2009 10:06am Jan 20, 2009 10:06am
Quoting ljr
I passed on the EurJpy Pin as the close was not within the previous candles body.

I was also stopped on ChfJpy though.

Open and close are within the previous candles body {on my chart}, see attached chart.
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  • #19,159
  • Jan 20, 2009 10:06am Jan 20, 2009 10:06am
Quoting Greenhaze
Whats your thougths on this one if h1 will close as a pb. I have already lost 2 times trying to pick the bottom on u/j.

This is certainly a level I'm watching on the UJ, but I haven't had a confirming PA yet on my chart to go long. Looking for a decent sized pb off the 1h or 4h timeframes. 4h could shape up nicely but it's still got 2 hours until the close on my feed.

Nice level to watch though!

Chris
  • #19,160
  • Jan 20, 2009 10:25am Jan 20, 2009 10:25am
Is anyone trading the USDJPY at this moment,I find a dbhlc and also a pin bar at the same time with a support broken already and also 89 ema has been broken, daily trend was short so I short the pairs lets see how it goes although am wary of the 50% fibonacci but am trading this just to follow the trend.
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