Charts Tech Analysis

Hi, I am Nick, technical trader (with an eye always open for fundamentals).
Will be posting new charts on a regular basis.
Hope to learn from those who know more than I do and help those who know less. All (constructive) criticism welcome. Remember being very confused about the basics when I started, S/R levels, trends, channels etc...
Hoping this will help some.

Key S/R levels and channel. EUR still clearly going down. Could see a reversal pretty soon although nothing in Trichet's speech this morning made that very likely. Look for a hold of 1.3026, strong S. If the market can't break 1.3026, a break of the channel on the upside could signify a trend reversal. Look for key R levels after that.

USD CHF.

Clear upward channel on the 4 hour chart. 1.1276 historically extremely strong R/level. Violent bounce on 9.19.08 as well on daily chart.
1.1132 historically strong as well. channel in between right now. Look for a break on either side. 1.1276 could be very strong pivot point for trend reversal, potentially confirmed by break of channel on the bottom side and 1.1132 S.
Would also confirm trend reversal on EU if cannot break 1.3026 S. Look for correlation between pairs.
On the flip side, a clear break of 1.1276 and the channel would probably mean a continuation of the retracement back to monthly highs over longer term.





Nick

USD JPY.

Overall downward trend but expending channel, meaning short term trend lines highs getting higher and lows getting lower, indicating release of pressure as opposed to the contrary when channel is contracting and one the verge of breaking under the pressure very hard one way or another.
price right now at intersection of upward trend line; 90.00 level also very strong historical Resistance. If channel plus upward trend plus 90.00 level broken substantially, sign of possible strong continuation from yesterday's move. Would definitely not hold Short position after such a break. On the other side, good opportunity for potential strong retracement from same yesterday move, potentially to the lows of downward trend line/channel.





NickThePip

Great Job Nick! will check in often

I see very good job will be done here ...

Hi Nick,

Just read a couple of your posts at ALG´s and I must say you sound like you know what you´re saying!

Thank you very much for your help to us newbies, i´ll be definitely supporting your Thread.

Yours truly,


Manolosal

Thank you all for the positive feedback.

Considering how unstable the market is right now, Fridays are more dangerous than ever and as the liquidity dries up early in the day, volatility levels are probably going to go through the roof and open the field for stop hunting and the likes, so I won't be trading (and strongly advise the same) or posting anything today before market close, but I will make a similar chart analysis of most US pairs over the weekend for next week.

Thank you,

Nick

hi Nick,
thank you for starting this thread and hope we will all become better traders by sharing our knowledge and information together. i will always be glued to this thread. where do u expect intraday reversal for eurusd?

Hello Nick,

Communicated with you on Algirdas's blog. All of us probably wish we could predict the market better. I have enjoyed reading Algirdas's posts but of course, cannot figure out quite how he knows what he knows. Your observations yesterday were interesting and credible. I look forward to reading your posts and helping everyone get better at predicting market swings based on fibs and longer-term support/resistance.

Thanks for starting the thread, Nick. I hope we can keep it focused on your original intent, as there are plenty of other good threads out there for general trader discussion.

Good trading to all.

Hello guys,

I want to share some charts too, that i have.
Everything is based on chanels, pivots and fibos.

Hoping to see more posts soon ...


Gytis


p.s. as you know, to discuss the past is much easier than to discuss the future ...

Also there is one more of my many setups, on the picture looks nice, but... U can see that ALG's buy or sell calls could be executed this way.

Of course this setup needs to be used with very tight stop loss.

Hi Nick,

Saw your post at ALG's on the 1.3047 reversal. Made interesting food for thought, and someting worth looking closely into. Kudos and Good thinking.

Hi everyone. Lots of trend reversal potential on many pairs so here are some new charts with analysis. Again, feedback more than welcome. Thanks for all the previous comments.


EUR USD


Still too early in my opinion to talk about a sure trend reversal on EU. Upward channel and trend line showing strong potential for it, however. Seen full retracement from the Sell at the 1.3336 Resistance level and "V" shape showing a "stand-off" at that level right now.
Key points to look for are a substantial break of 1.3336. After that, if upper trend line is, again, clearly broken, this would be the confirmation for me of trend reversal, as opposed to a continuation of retracement.
A hold of these levels could usher another push down back to the previous lows with retest of the 1.3026 level. After 1.3336 on the upside 1.3431 is key resistance level to watch for trend reversal confirmation as well.
At this point, I see the hold of 1.3336 on a Friday, considering the decreased liquidity levels, to be a good sign of a potential move back down.

Nick

AUD USD

Aussie showing same pattern as EU. Seen full retracement from earlier move. 6790 is key resistance level in confirming trend direction change.
Correlation with EU is strong enough as of late to use one pair as very probable confirmation for the other.

Nick

USD CHF

Market did not break through 1.1276 but did, as expected if the level held, push the market back to the 1.1132 support level.
1.1132 holding so far. Broken on friday but not substantially in that context considering, again, typically low liquidity levels. CHF also strongly correlated with EU so watch for 1.1132 to confirm a potential trend reversal as well. If 1.1132 holds, could be looking at a bounce to the highs again until either level breaks completely.

Nick

USD JPY

UJ did break through 90.00 level substantially, confirming for now, the uptrend reversal.
90.05 now serving as very strong support, confirming the importance of its previous breaking.
90.91 is key resistance right now. Very strong historically as well, as one can see on daily chart (this is 4h). Look for a break of 90.91 to confirm continuation of uptrend. If 90.05 is tested again and clearly broken, will have to reconsider and potentially view last upward move as a simple retracement of continuing downtrend. It is very interesting to notice on the chart from app. Dec 22nd to Jan 4th the pressure exerted on both sides by these same two levels as the market kept bouncing between them until eventually breaking through 9091 for a very strong move upward.

Nick

Good Morning

Nick, I have to agree with you on the uj, we have tested this area a few times in the last several hours and also sitting around the 38.2 fib level from the last move down. if we can break to the up side the next level would be the 50 fib around 91.56 and then to the 61.8 fib at 92.24. If she bounces off r again we may have a trip back down to the dp at 89.48 and see how it reacts then. Monday is a US bank holiday so there may not be much action....may be a ranging day. Those are always good for some scalping.

Debbie

tenfore don't seem to be updating prices right now does any one know if there are any gaps?

Debbie,

Very good point. Not always a huge fan of Fibonacci. I use it more for confirmation after visual analysis than actual forecast by itself but in this case, totally agree with 9156 level. Historically, on 12.05.08 and 12.12.08 on 4h hour chart, we can see very strong S/R level exactly at 9156 for key turning points in the market, definitely a level to keep in mind if 9091 is broken.

Nick

I always check with the fibs, most of the time they line up with historical s/r, if they are strong i use them for my sl and tp. Also notice that it was bouncing between r and the200 ema for most of friday.