Principles of market movements

Hi Alex_S !

I'm very intrested about your methodology and try to understand it.

On BPA we have a max volume for today a 1,4515.

I think we are in a corridor between yesterday max volume and today max volume. As far as I understand it mean we have to wait the break of this corridor to take a position, am I right ?

but buy zone is against the trend as we are behind Max volume of contract so caution ...

Please advise if you see anything wrong.

Legends:
10% volume range, I pick the top 10 prices which form 10% of total volume to create a range. As a result, we have:
Red lines - Jan 12 10% volume range
Yellow lines - Jan 13 10% volume range

Range: 129.42/130.50
1) Price starts within range
2) minor reversal at top of range
3) After the 3rd attempt to break range, it attempts to reach Jan 12's range
4) After failed to reach, retrace back to lower range of 129.42
5) Rebound to top range 130.50 and create a range trading after

I've try a long a 1,4557 as it makes a double bottom on 1 min chart above the corridor ...

Is that ok ?


EAprogrammer where do you find your informations about GBPJPY volume please ?

I have an EA to collect tick volume, still need some manual process to merge all data. Once complete, will post to this thread.

Also, included the latest GBPJPYm5 chart

Added: It is hard to believe the intraday volume is that strong. Additional GBPJPYm5 to show.

EAprogrammer,
So, you must be extrapolating a change in volume at each tic as a proxy for tic volume... since that doesn't really exist in MT4?

I would be interested in seeing if that MT4 information would be as valuable as Alexs' information, since his is based on real futures trading information.

When I first read this thread several weeks ago, I too wanted to start writing a windows based program based on tic data, but have been unable to find that type of raw information. The extrapolation would be cake for a number crunching program.

To be able to have this type of volume information at your fingertips is actually very powerful and very few people use volume for trading, and have dismissed volume as useless. But as can be seen by Alex, it is one of the more powerful, non-indicator price based indicators that I've seen, when price is connected to volume.

Carl

PS. If you'd be willing, I would like to use your EA as an input to a windows based analyzer. We could even feed real-time tic's for continuous analysis. I have a thread in the programming section of FF for a windows based basket trade analysis program if you would like to see my previous work.

Yes.Everything is correct.But if look in my previous post you will see that I wrote about new price with max volume.If you see that market is making new max volume of contract- be careful that day.This happened today- no serious movements, just volume formation.And finally we have new price with maximal volume of contract- 1,455

http://savepic.ru/446784.png

Volume shows interest of the market to some price.One thing is price with biggest volume of some week and another price with max volume of all contract.

Yes I trade futures.But it is not a problem to trade such way on fx.Soon synthetic instrument will be made.

Alex,

Do u do swing trading that last few days to weeks in trade position ?

What would you recommend to see in volume for swing trading ?

So far, i assume your analysis is based on intraday trading.

Large volumes- weeks, contract.It is a base to stand in market for a long time.Maximal time I was holding position 3 days.

Todays levels contract+previous day on GBP

http://savepic.ru/424280.png

Max volumes of contract- the most important prices:

http://savepic.ru/422232.png

Alex,

Volfix is the most powerful tool I have ever seen. I really appreciate your explanations.

I actually made some money using the new EURUSD Synthetic charts.
Very impressive.

Thanks for your teachings.

Carl

Volume is the most powerful tool.But I have never used better analytical system - that is true.I`ll show some of today`s trades.

You welcome.

EUA
Today`s trade on eua(uer/usd).Today we had: max volume of the contract- 1,3145 and 1,314:

http://savepic.ru/399723.png

Max volume of yesterday- on the price 1,314 too.

http://savepic.ru/444778.png

These are base prices for trading today.Situation of today.Hour by hour.

6:00-7:00 a.m. Chicago time:

http://savepic.ru/431466.png

This hour did not give any trade.No rebound from significant volumes.
But this houre formed max volume on the price 1,3085:

http://savepic.ru/419178.png

That volume will be moving market next hour.So we put it on the chart.Market may climb above 1,3085 come back to it and rebound- but we won`t open long position in this case- against trend.market may also go under 1,3085 rebound from it and decline.That would be a risky short too, because volume of 6-7:00 hour is low to trade from it and be sure; and you see that there was no rebound from max volume of contract and max volume of yesterday.We will wait.

Hour from 7:00 to 8:00

http://savepic.ru/407914.png

Market gained from max volume of previous hour(1,3085) to max volume of contract and previous day(1,314-1,3145)- on the chart you may even see a rebound, but If you short here you should understand that you sell against max volume of previous hour that adds a risk to your trade.Usually most of trades in a period of one hour are closed in next hour.That`s why you should always consider max volume of previous hour.Actually it rebouced from important level, so if u shorted here- some money market gave you.

Max volume of this hour is on the price- 1,3132:

http://savepic.ru/450925.png

This price will be important too- we put it on the chart(green line):
Next hour 8:00-9:00

http://savepic.ru/449901.png

Market went under max volumes of contract and previous day, came back and rebounced from that prices.When after rebound it went under max volume of previous hour - we short, nothing resist for the market to decline.Sure move - to max volume of hour before previous.There you may put your take profit, or cover a half of your position on that price, as it is a first resistance.

Today`s analysis of BPA/GBP

Max volumes of the contract:

http://savepic.ru/428398.png

Max volumes of previous day:

http://savepic.ru/427374.png

These prices we put on the chart- we will look for trades from prices to which market showed the biggest interest.

http://savepic.ru/432494.png

We had 3 situations today where we could enter the market:

http://savepic.ru/420206.png

Now I will show them in dateils.

Situation number 1:
Market rebounded from 1,456-1,4564.Max volumes of previous hours are on prices:

http://savepic.ru/422254.png

You see that market formed max volumes of hours in the same places- you see 2 pairs of max volumes in the same price ranges.It tells us about importance of prices with this volumes during today.If I put them on the chart (lines with grey colour) we will have such picture:

http://savepic.ru/403822.png

If we open long position after rebound from max volume of contract+max volume of yesterday we should open it only above max volumes of hours that I mansioned before, as intraday volumes may resist.Or we may take have little t/p going from one volume to another- but I don`t like it.Better to open long position after market broke prices with these volumes, broke resistance- this movement is more sure and it has given good money.

Example why should not we stand against intraday volumes:
Next hour market came back to prices with max volume of contract and rebounced from them, but we have max volumes of hours above.So market rebounced from max volume of contract came to intraday volumes, rebounced from them and went below contract prices.That`s why it is a risky.

http://savepic.ru/395630.png

Situation number 2:

Situation similar to today`s situation on EUA:
Market broke max volumes o contract+yesterday and formed some volumes below.We will see this volumes- max volumes of hours:

http://savepic.ru/453985.png

They are important.Expesially is important 1,453(green line)- here during 6 minutes appeared a volume- biggest of the day- 782 lots, that`s really a lot on this market,that is annomally big position, that must be a person with valuable information, because his position is much bigger than usual max volume of all day on this instrument.
This volume appeared after rebound from max volume of contract+yesterday.So if you shorted here you should have closed with profits after appearance of annomally big position.Noone knows where he will pull the market.

http://savepic.ru/449889.png

Importance of this big position you may have observed a bit later, in a next hour, after market could not break down this price and rebounded.That guy is really big

http://savepic.ru/428385.png

With the help of such guys market broke max volume of contract+yesterday.

Situation number 3:

http://savepic.ru/430433.png

So market went above max volume of contract+yesterday.It comes back to these prices and rebounds from them.Same situation as 1st.If you want- you may pips from one volume to another- but I don`t like it.Also it`s time of changing trading sessions on the board of trade, so market just bounced between intraday volumes and contract levels.Nothing interesting.Long position only above intraday volumes(grey lines-look first situation).

And what do we have next:

http://savepic.ru/420193.png

Market broke intraday volumes, came back to them and rebounced, it shows us importance of intraday max volumes-max volumes of hours and gives opportunity to enter sure long position with good t/p, as nothing does resist.Don`t forget to make your trades by the trend.

S&P index

On index you may see these days very big volumes.For example 14.01 market made during the day on the price 838 the volume of 105000 lots(!!!), such volume during previous contract market was making for a week or two.

http://savepic.ru/446822.png

Also we have formed max volume of week:

http://savepic.ru/423276.png

At present time it is powerful level for movement. Long positions- to volume of Monday and Tuesday:

http://savepic.ru/440678.png

The variant on sale is possible, but if Friday opens over the max volume of week, and over present day volume, that is a high probability of long positions to top levels.

EUA(eur/usd)
On euro futures max volume of contract is moved to the price 1,3145:

http://savepic.ru/393583.png

Now this price is basic in the market, further a trend will be developed from a contract price to volume of Monday and to the rating price 1,365:

http://savepic.ru/410982.png

From this price it`s possible that market may be pulled to the prices
1, 2 ***.
We will observe the situation.

YEN

Today`s speculative trade on yen market.
You see large volume accumulation.During two hours market traded in close price range and fromed max volumes of hours closely to each other.
Prices with these volumes are very important for the market, and we may trade from them.

http://savepic.ru/403835.png

http://savepic.ru/402811.png

Next hour market approved importance of these volumes and rebounded from that prices.This long position is quite risky, it has just speculative character.

Hi Alex,
Hi Crod,
What is the new Synthetic instrument or charts? Are the same?
Do I have on volfix too?

Lubo.