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Attachments: 100% Sure Win but only in trending n ranging.
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100% Sure Win but only in trending n ranging.

  • #61
  • Jan 8, 2009 8:13am Jan 8, 2009 8:13am
Quoting yonnie
thanks for clarifying

I dont think the 4ema serves any purpose.... in a ranging market it looks like the 4 and 13 ema will cross often and you will not take any action.

so what is the use of the 4 ema?

wouldnt it be better to just have 2 ema`s instead of 3?

you could even have only the 50 ema and buy when price is above 50 ema and sell when price is under 50 ema. what do you think?

it's for me to know wat the price wanna do.. there will be time the ema are as follow 13 4 50.. this are not trend changin signal.. i hope u got wat i mean.. of coz some ppl i know of use 15 25 50.. wel it applies for me so i better stick to it...
  • #62
  • Edited 3:49pm Jan 8, 2009 3:36pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting Holypendant
it's for me to know wat the price wanna do.. there will be time the ema are as follow 13 4 50.. this are not trend changin signal.. i hope u got wat i mean.. of coz some ppl i know of use 15 25 50.. wel it applies for me so i better stick to it...
yeah, I know exactly what you mean......

4 ema under 13 ema means nothing really and that`s why I`m saying: do you really need the 4 ema.

when are you selling your longs?
is it when 4 ema crosses the 50 ema or if 13 crosses the 50 ema or both are under 50 ema?

or do you only exit after having 10 trades and being down 1100 pips from your first trade?

thanks
  • #63
  • Jan 8, 2009 9:37pm Jan 8, 2009 9:37pm
Quoting yonnie
yeah, I know exactly what you mean......

4 ema under 13 ema means nothing really and that`s why I`m saying: do you really need the 4 ema.

when are you selling your longs?
is it when 4 ema crosses the 50 ema or if 13 crosses the 50 ema or both are under 50 ema?

or do you only exit after having 10 trades and being down 1100 pips from your first trade?

thanks


selling longs when both are under... i'm sure u will profit from my system since u know wat i'm doin now.. if u modify it to much better, let me noe k..
  • #64
  • Edited 10:39pm Jan 8, 2009 10:01pm | Edited 10:39pm
thank you for your explanation

the system looks interesting, but I would need to do a lot of backtesting to see how it would have worked out in the past.......
your strategy is better than grid trading: at least you`re cutting your losses at some point, while the grid traders keep on buying in the same direction all the time.

I`m not good at all at reading price action and I dont intend to spend thousands of hours in front of my computer to get better at it.

I`m better off with a sort of mechanical system after looking at the system from all angles.
I backtested G/J on the 5M chart from bar to bar from 1-15 December 2008 and if you would have taken all your trades around the clock at 00 and exit at 50, you would have had 96 closed trades @ 50 pips = 4,800 pips. No spread, commission and interest have been taken in account.

6 trades @ 133.00, 134.00, 135.00, 136.00, 137.00 and 138.00 would still be open and with the closing price of 138.68 on December 15th, you would be down 1,908 pips on the open trades.
I would have to look into it, but I think its important to get those losing trades down to managable proportions.

I will put in a lot of work before I could give you any clues on how to improve the system.

So could you answer these questions:
do you have any ideas how to minimise the losing trades?

did you have a special reason to enter the trade @ 00 and close @ 50?

how long have you been trading this strategy with real money?
  • #65
  • Jan 9, 2009 12:30pm Jan 9, 2009 12:30pm
Quoting yonnie
thank you for your explanation

the system looks interesting, but I would need to do a lot of backtesting to see how it would have worked out in the past.......
your strategy is better than grid trading: at least you`re cutting your losses at some point, while the grid traders keep on buying in the same direction all the time.

I`m not good at all at reading price action and I dont intend to spend thousands of hours in front of my computer to get better at it.

I`m better off with a sort of mechanical system after looking at the system from...

how do u do backtest? using EA? if have please send to me for god sake.. haha i need to manually monitored... hahaha..

no special reason but i heard from some ppl 00 is where those big players buy or sell..

minimising losing trade? i tink so far the closed at 1100pips hard stop loss is the best. (but if u haf ur idea, plz share..)

this new 2% return is from 2008 abt 1 yr from now..

rather than backtest, live test is better.. u can use test this system with $100. coz i duno how to backtest.. please teach me if u can.. you from which country? do u have msn? maybe we can discuss more n clarify all methods of success system..

this system wun be affected by emotion n fundamentals.. i like this becoz sometimes our judgement is wrong.. mechanical suits me better... 1 thing i hope to improve is that i wuld like to make a 1%per day int.. thats my goal.. haha
  • #66
  • Jan 9, 2009 8:03pm Jan 9, 2009 8:03pm
I did the backtest manually on 15M chart of Metatrader4 and it took hours just for 15 days.
this way its better than with an EA, which I dont have.

if your system didn`t work in the past, I wouldn`t even bother forward testing it.

in the last year there was a downtrend on G/J, but between 17 March and 23 July price went from 192.60 to 215.87
between 23 July and 13 August from 215.87 to 202.49
between 16 September and 24 September from 184.47 to 197.44
between 10 October and 14 October from 165.96 to 181.39
between 24 October and 30 October from 139.02 to 165.03
between 30 December 2008 and 7 January 2009 from 129.84 to 141.52

so price went more than 1100 pips against your positions.

my questions:
I just try to get a better idea how you are closing out when price goes against you.
on what day did you close your positions in these examples and what were your losses?
on what day did you start trading again after closing your positions and did you go long after that?

what were your profits/losses each month for the last year you traded with real money?

I have a few ideas on how to improve the system, but for now I better do some testing to see if they would work.
will let you know how I get on.

thanks
  • #67
  • Jan 12, 2009 9:53am Jan 12, 2009 9:53am
Quoting yonnie
I did the backtest manually on 15M chart of Metatrader4 and it took hours just for 15 days.
this way its better than with an EA, which I dont have.

if your system didn`t work in the past, I wouldn`t even bother forward testing it.

in the last year there was a downtrend on G/J, but between 17 March and 23 July price went from 192.60 to 215.87
between 23 July and 13 August from 215.87 to 202.49
between 16 September and 24 September from 184.47 to 197.44
between 10 October and 14 October from 165.96 to 181.39
between 24 October and 30 October from...
As you know i used the ema 4 13 50 as indicator on daily chart to see if it's on down trend or uptrend. if ema all crosses and pointed uptrend, i wuld close all short positions in losses and start long postion.

every mth there's profit 2-3%.. u see.. i take 1100pips losses but when price reverse rite, my long positon is 3 tims the size of the short positon. i recovered my loss faster and when it had recovered, i would chage lot size to 0.1% again.. thus profit is always there. i dont have any specific days to close my position. it all depend on the EMA..

If u backtested in year 2008, it's in profit... like i say, it's not those few folds of return. it's only 20-30%P.A.. i'm really trying to improve it yet..
  • #68
  • Jan 12, 2009 10:24am Jan 12, 2009 10:24am
Before I begin, DEMO test only, do not take my opinion as an invitation to trade real money.

Am I to understand that you target 50pips profit per trade, on a pair that can fluctuate by several hundred pips per day, and you have almost unlimited risk as you trade with wide stops, or no stops at all


While you answer that question (and hopefully see what I'm getting at) I'll run you through my progress this month

This month I've had 2 winners and 12 losers (not "100% sure win" like yourself)

Despite my horrid 16% win rate, my account is up 16.8% this month so far which is actually pretty good. Hmmm, I suppose there's a difference between "winning" and "winning" eh?

As I type this, I'm in long on the USDCHF at 11103, with my stop at 10861; (more than 240pips). So far I've been up as much as 136pips profit, but I wont set my stop to breakeven till I'm up to 400 pips profit at least.

I could close the position right now, and have a sure win, what do you think? My initial risk is 240, but I could exit with a 50pip profit locked away in the bank 100%.
  • #69
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:53pm Jan 13, 2009 9:53pm
Quoting Mongoose
Before I begin, DEMO test only, do not take my opinion as an invitation to trade real money.

Am I to understand that you target 50pips profit per trade, on a pair that can fluctuate by several hundred pips per day, and you have almost unlimited risk as you trade with wide stops, or no stops at all


While you answer that question (and hopefully see what I'm getting at) I'll run you through my progress this month

This month I've had 2 winners and 12 losers (not "100% sure win" like yourself)...
are you comparing my system with yours? or r u saying my system have only 2 winner and 16 losers?

If you are comparing, what i feel is that it's pointless.. each individual have thier own ways to trade. if your system is a wiiner to you, i would advise you to stick with it..

16 loses and 2 Big winners. lets ask everyone, who can control over thier emotion after making 10 loses straight in a row and can still follow the rules to trade it.

Guppy is a pair with high movement. by using 50pips TP, i can almost confirm that i'll bank in pips everyday.. this is a slow n conservative method i would say as returns r not that high. i'm running on few demos by modifying this system of mine to make it a 1% return a day..
  • #70
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:58pm Jan 13, 2009 9:58pm
for those of you that straight away start a demo or real account with my system since my 1st posting, all of you had reach the 1st 1100pip hard stop loss on 8jan2009 losing 1.2% of your NAV. but as of now, u had regain about 0.4%.
  • #71
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:31pm Jan 13, 2009 10:31pm
I'm not here for a contest between you and I, that's entirely your interpretation. Besides, once of my systems is on this forum, fully disclosed with accounts statements, backtests and programming so if you want to compare you can do that entirely by yourself.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=34494&page=6

(BTW 10 losses in a row is normal for all the professional traders that I know personally)

I'm saying that in my past few years of trading, I've met many traders, and the shorter their timeframe i.e.(scalpers, 1min bar traders etc) the quicker their accounts blow up.

I recieved emails from people asking what I thought of their new scalping systems, or their 10pip per day systems etc, and those individuals are gone.

Spread can kill, spread skews the numbers against you, spread chokes profits and fans losing trades.
  • #72
  • Jan 14, 2009 7:41am Jan 14, 2009 7:41am
Quoting Mongoose
I'm not here for a contest between you and I, that's entirely your interpretation. Besides, once of my systems is on this forum, fully disclosed with accounts statements, backtests and programming so if you want to compare you can do that entirely by yourself.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=34494&page=6

(BTW 10 losses in a row is normal for all the professional traders that I know personally)

I'm saying that in my past few years of trading, I've met many traders, and the shorter their timeframe i.e.(scalpers, 1min...

HAHA yeah.. spreads kill.. no offense.. i'm not saying u r here as a contestant.. i'm juz asking if u r comparing... cheers to ur system..
  • #73
  • Mar 29, 2009 2:59am Mar 29, 2009 2:59am
it has been a long time since i posted in this thread of mine... this is not a quick rich scheme unless you have alot capital like say 1million...

results as follow:

Oct08:$1000
Nov08:$1020
Dec08:$1049
Jan09:$1051
Feb09: $1040
March09: $1059.5

for people that just come in to see the post, you guyz must be laughing like mad as the profit is very little.. i'm aiming at a gurantedd minimum 10%P.A return regardless of MARKET CONDITION....

starting capital is 1000 and now is up 5.9% if you guys are asking what the draw down, i wuld say is less than 10% of your NAV...

i'll kp posting my result monthly and wil entertain any question rise...
  • #74
  • Apr 23, 2009 5:33am Apr 23, 2009 5:33am
Oct08:$1000
Nov08:$1020
Dec08:$1049
Jan09:$1051
Feb09: $1040
March09: $1059.5
April09: $1071.24

I will keep posting until i fail or had no time... maybe i should increase lot size???? I'm sure people that see this trading result sure ROFL...

Too little profit right???
  • #75
  • Apr 23, 2009 7:29am Apr 23, 2009 7:29am
How would you have done on March 18, 2009? Or November 6-7 2007? Both periods are considered black swans.
  • #76
  • Apr 23, 2009 1:20pm Apr 23, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
How would you have done on March 18, 2009? Or November 6-7 2007? Both periods are considered black swans.
My charts and indicator show up trend on daily, so i juz keep buying...
  • #77
  • Apr 23, 2009 3:08pm Apr 23, 2009 3:08pm
oh my golly gosh --- two things you say leave my mind boggled and running from the room, screaming nonesence !

10 LOSING TRADES is NORMAL for a professional trader ? IN WHAT ? I would kill myself if i did that !

and EVERYONE you have met who trades the shorter timeframes and endulges in what you refer to as "scalping" LOSES ?????

the ONLY time i make a fool out of myself when scalping is if i go counter on a strongly trending currency --- something i tend to avoid, as im not prepared for the ensuing pain !

enjoy and trade well

mp


Quoting Mongoose
I'

(BTW 10 losses in a row is normal for all the professional traders that I know personally)

I'm saying that in my past few years of trading, I've met many traders, and the shorter their timeframe i.e.(scalpers, 1min bar traders etc) the quicker their accounts blow up.
  • #78
  • May 22, 2009 3:12am May 22, 2009 3:12am
Oct08:$1000
Nov08:$1020
Dec08:$1049
Jan09:$1051
Feb09: $1040
March09: $1059.5
April09: $1071.24
May09: $1079.50

HAHA.. i begin to wonder am i using too small lots... but then i would say it's better than money market and fixed income... i still dun see any risk yet...
  • #79
  • May 27, 2009 1:58am May 27, 2009 1:58am
OK.. i'm goin to make some adjustment to my system.. i have change to the lot size from 0.1% to 1%. with this, i'm trying to achieve a 10% monthly return... will update next month...
  • #80
  • Jun 3, 2009 11:11am Jun 3, 2009 11:11am
HolyPendant, just to make sure I got this straight:

1. you set .1%NAV pending orders at the psych levels of '00 in the direction of the trend determined by an EMA cross. Then when trend reverses (ie. EMA cross other way) you trade .3%NAV until you have recovered your losses.

2. you have kindly listed your forward testing results with starting capital of $1000 and you are making $1000+ per month only trading GY?

3. Yes, if your drawdown is 10% trading .1%NAV, then it looks like you could increase to .5%NAV if sticking to only one pair.

Thanks for the clarification.
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