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Principles of market movements

  • #141
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:23am Jan 13, 2009 6:23am
S&P
Monday, unfortunately has not "worked off" levels of Friday, but has generated the levels, base for trading on Tuesday:

http://savepic.ru/403755.png

On cluster chart you may see yesterday's intraday max olumes accumulations( max volumes of hours) - behind these prices are hiden not only money, but interest of "big traders".
The corridor from these prices will serve us as a reference point for today:

http://savepic.ru/408875.png

Buy-zones and sell-zones -as usually: under and over a "corridor".
That that is represented on the chart - three possible variants of behaviour of the market from determined prices. We will observe.

By the way skype chat "Trading Based on Volumes" is already working- wellcome
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #142
  • Jan 13, 2009 6:32am Jan 13, 2009 6:32am
While I was writing previous post, the market came to 1, 33 and jumped aside from that price.Short:

http://savepic.ru/433450.png

Half of this position you should cover on max volume of today:

http://savepic.ru/438569.png

Then put your Stop/loss at the opening pice.At worst you will not lose anything.
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #143
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:22am Jan 13, 2009 7:22am
As I also wrote earlier if market will go under 1, 49 - sales. The maximum volume of the last week is generated on the price 1,52 and also in this range are situated a lot of important prices with max volumes of week(1, 515... 1, 521....):

http://savepic.ru/414998.png

Only one volume accumulation in the bottom of the last week is on the price 1, 459 which has been generated for Monday-Tuesday.
Max volume of the contract is on the price 1, 502:

http://savepic.ru/402710.png

Overall situation on the chart and one position of about 40-50points from max volume, accumulated on the bottom of last week:

http://savepic.ru/395565.png

Such long positions are risky, because against a trend. And nevertheless the market jumps aside from such levels as "ball".
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #144
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:33am Jan 13, 2009 7:33am
EUA(eurusd)
As trend is declining we are looking for a position to sell.Max volume of the day is formed on the price 1,3263 (1322 lots).That will be a base level to short.Market rebounds and we short.

http://savepic.ru/444716.png

http://savepic.ru/445740.png
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #145
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:35am Jan 13, 2009 7:35am
Important reports for this week:

13.01.09: International Trade 7:30 (chicago time)

14.01.09: Retail Sales 7:30 AM
EIA Petroleum Status Report. 9:30 AM

15.01.09: Producer Price Index 7:30 AM (PPI)
Jobless Claims 7:30 AM

16.01.09: Consumer Price Index 7:30 AM
Consumer Sentiment 9:00 AM
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #146
  • Jan 13, 2009 8:08am Jan 13, 2009 8:08am
And again:

http://savepic.ru/393516.png

Max volume of the day on futures - 1,3263 on eurusd it is 1,3294
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #147
  • Jan 13, 2009 8:37am Jan 13, 2009 8:37am
YEN
The trend on yen is positive, on Monday max volume of contract pushed the market higher, and now market is over it.
Max volume of contract:

http://savepic.ru/436502.png

Max volume of week that was before previous 29. 12 - 2. 01, is the same as max volume of contract:

http://savepic.ru/435478.png

The volume of last week was generated for Thursday-Friday on the price 1, 095.
Now we will consider logic of movements of the market in the nearest future.
Price with max volume of contract is basic reference point for market movement, moreover it serves as a place of a possible input in the market, we will pay all our attention to this price:

http://savepic.ru/431407.png

Concerning the last week, the market is in a buy-zone, therefore if market won`t break the contract price down, means it will be possible to try to enter a long position, but you should be careful as market has already gained.
If there will be a return situation, short sales from volume of the contract to volume of the last week are possible.
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #148
  • Jan 13, 2009 9:05am Jan 13, 2009 9:05am
GC(Gold)
Last week market mostly stayed in one close price range and formed volume on such prices:

http://savepic.ru/396796.png

Max volumes of contract:

http://savepic.ru/400892.png

So we have such base levels to trade.
12.01( Monday) market opened below max volume of contract- a sell-zone.Market broke 848 which was second max volume of previous week and only one resistance for market to decline, and after it came back and rebounced from 848- it finally declined.

http://savepic.ru/454958.png
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #149
  • Jan 13, 2009 10:53am Jan 13, 2009 10:53am
Hi Alex,
I see that u also work with cluster tick chart to see big volume positions, but i don't understend the way to identify if these levels are sell or buy positions.
Now i'm trying the volfix platform and on cluster chart i see that it can be show also volume with delta, it's that useful to verify the side of big positions?

Thanks.
Lubo
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #150
  • Jan 13, 2009 3:03pm Jan 13, 2009 3:03pm
I dont understand the system but seems to be good
  • #151
  • Jan 13, 2009 3:25pm Jan 13, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting LuboLabo
Hi Alex,
I see that u also work with cluster tick chart to see big volume positions, but i don't understend the way to identify if these levels are sell or buy positions.
Now i'm trying the volfix platform and on cluster chart i see that it can be show also volume with delta, it's that useful to verify the side of big positions?

Thanks.
Lubo
u cannot verify if its sell order buy orders, even tough there's delta. if the information was that legitimate, it wouldnt be a problem to make winnder after winner.

it is enough to know where the big positions are. when price comes back to those areas watch for reactions and price actions.

if all the big positions are bilt below crrent price we can assume it to be longs.

since the professional traders are very greedy, they come back to retest those areas and buy/sell some more before starting the move.
  • #152
  • Jan 13, 2009 7:51pm Jan 13, 2009 7:51pm
Alex,

On post 148, u showed 2 volume picture of GC.

What is the difference between them and how do u use them in yr trading ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #153
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:06am Jan 14, 2009 4:06am
Quoting LuboLabo
Hi Alex,
I see that u also work with cluster tick chart to see big volume positions, but i don't understend the way to identify if these levels are sell or buy positions.
Now i'm trying the volfix platform and on cluster chart i see that it can be show also volume with delta, it's that useful to verify the side of big positions?

Thanks.
Lubo
I don`t advise people to trade with the help of delta, its too tricky- you should consider only quantity of volume.
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #154
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:08am Jan 14, 2009 4:08am
Quoting neurus
I dont understand the system but seems to be good
Everything is simple- cathing prices with biggest positions and join the movement.
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #155
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:16am Jan 14, 2009 4:16am
Quoting compro99
Alex,

On post 148, u showed 2 volume picture of GC.

What is the difference between them and how do u use them in yr trading ?
For example- today is Monday 12.01:
What do we do before trading?We should find important levels from which to trade.We check max volume of previous week(5.01-9.01) and see that it is on the prices 854, 848- we put them on chart.Then we check max volume of all contract- it s on the prices 855, 850- we put them on the chart.What do we have?- corridor of prices in which its dangerous to trade.848 - it is a lowest border of our corridor and 855- highest border.When the price break up 855, comes back to 855 and rebound we will open long position.But if the market will go under all that prices- comes back and rebound from 848 ar even 850- it is ure short because resistance is broken and you see that trend is declining.
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #156
  • Jan 14, 2009 4:55am Jan 14, 2009 4:55am
Alex,

Just to confirm. In your daily trading, u're trading currency futures or spot FX ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #157
  • Jan 14, 2009 5:00am Jan 14, 2009 5:00am
HI,
this is my analisys on GBP/USD of price actions on volume.


Lubo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp vol forming.gif Size: 17 KB
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #158
  • Jan 14, 2009 6:14am Jan 14, 2009 6:14am
Quoting Alex_S
For example- today is Monday 12.01:
What do we do before trading?We should find important levels from which to trade.We check max volume of previous week(5.01-9.01) and see that it is on the prices 854, 848- we put them on chart.Then we check max volume of all contract- it s on the prices 855, 850- we put them on the chart.What do we have?- corridor of prices in which its dangerous to trade.848 - it is a lowest border of our corridor and 855- highest border.When the price break up 855, comes back to 855 and rebound we will open long position.But...
Alex,

Forgive for asking stupid question. What is the difference between the 2 volume chart ? One is max volume of last week and max volume of all contract ? What is their significant difference ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #159
  • Jan 14, 2009 6:25am Jan 14, 2009 6:25am
LuboLabo: u are ding really good.

Today`s situation on GBP

What do we have today- the closest pric from max volumes of contract - is 1,455- by the way today market may make on it new max volume of contract, that tell us about new possible strond movement, and max volume of previous day on 1,4548.

http://savepic.ru/424240.png

Situation from 1:00 am to 3:00am Chicago time:
As market couldn`t break these two prices with large volumes- it gained, but we are under max volume of contract so this long position contains risk.

http://savepic.ru/423216.png

Situation from 3 to 4:00 am:
Then market went below that prices, rebounded and there was a good opportunity to short- as no resistance was below.

http://savepic.ru/407856.png

Situation from 4:00 to 5:00
From 3 to 4:00 market formad max volume of this hour on the price 1,4515(green line on the chart).An starting from 4 o`clock market climbed on that volume and went closely to max volume of previous day, though haven`t touched it.So max volume of this hour is a resisance for market to decline, I would short only below it.

http://savepic.ru/453939.png

http://savepic.ru/457011.png
skype: aleksey_trader
  • #160
  • Jan 14, 2009 6:26am Jan 14, 2009 6:26am
Hour from 5:00 to 6:00
Hour 4-5:00 made volume on the price 1,4533(yellow line) and from that price gained and even broke through max volume of previous day:

http://savepic.ru/443699.png

http://savepic.ru/449843.png

So 1,4533 is a resistance for the market to decline too.As you see best trades happen when no intraday volumes resist for the market movement.
skype: aleksey_trader
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