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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #5,841
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:46pm Jan 11, 2009 10:46pm
Interceptor,
You seem to understand the method here, according to your responses to others, but I don't get the lesson learned comment. Did you get in a trade and loose?


InterceptorQuote:
Originally Posted by msc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2457123#post2457123)
what was your planned sell entry?
1.3820?

Yes, that's right.
I've got a fib(38) there, and it's also an area of possible resistance.

*****
Was this a trade intended to catch the news spike ? I ask because of this other post: I'm not sure if the two are related or what else happened
to bring up the don't trade news comment
*****

InterceptorThe most annoying thing is, stuck under my 1st screen I have a piece of paper. It reads "DON'T TRADE THE NEWS!".

This weeks lesson, for me, is;

STICK TO PLAN A

and, if Plan A is not showing it's face, then;

GO TO THE PUB UNTIL PLAN A RETURNS
  • #5,842
  • Jan 11, 2009 10:55pm Jan 11, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting krue
Interceptor, wish you don'd mind me hijacking your lesson, it's been always one of my concern in managing my trade plan, the question is, what if PLAN A never returns in the near term?

Another question for you Krue:

What is Plan A? If your following this thread, I would think it would have to be "always trade with the Major trend"

This has been a problem for me as well because each time frame has a trend, where do you draw the line between Short term or Long term. The 15min or 30min or 4hr? I think daily at least, or weekly. For me that seem a lot of waiting for a setup ... but that's why we need patience. For me, that doesn't mean we have to trade daily charts but that we need to wait until our chosen time frame lines up with it, direction wise.

How do you see it ?
  • #5,843
  • Jan 11, 2009 11:51pm Jan 11, 2009 11:51pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Hi,trixtuf

whenever I stay away from the market, much confidence in determining my term of market trend with a lot more clarity. however, once get into a trade or execute a plan, always drilled down too deep in order to catch the slightest favorable move. I noticed this problem recently by talking to people here. so, at the moment, probably you may know, I am away from any trade, then, I would say the long term for me is the monthly chart, intermediate term weekly, and short term is the daily chart, probably will use H4 for precision looking in an entry. another way to look at, I don't have to draw monthly chart in order to get a long term view, the same information is available in daily chart, depands how you draw the trendlines.so, I would mainly look at daily chart as master window, and weekly/monthly for adding clarity, if you agree. I define this by re-visiting dow theory, which I think applicable to forex market as well. I will see if this be as effective.

mind directing me to the link with Plan A definition? basically I knew your meaning, but, I think better have a look at the term. thank you for discussion


Quoting trixtuf
Another question for you Krue:

What is Plan A? If your following this thread, I would think it would have to be "always trade with the Major trend"

This has been a problem for me as well because each time frame has a trend, where do you draw the line between Short term or Long term. The 15min or 30min or 4hr? I think daily at least, or weekly. For me that seem a lot of waiting for a setup ... but that's why we need patience. For me, that doesn't mean we have to trade daily charts but that we need to wait until our chosen time frame lines...
  • #5,844
  • Edited 1:26am Jan 12, 2009 1:10am | Edited 1:26am
Hi krue, I was trying to see if you had a Plan A

My referance to "plan A" is just from the begining of this thread, where Jacko explains his approach to trading.

He states that he decides the trend and then uses the fib 50%, supp/resis areas and round numbers to identify trade opportunities.

I understand the desire to get in (5 & 1 min) with the "slightest favorable move" but that idea hasn't worked out too well. Small wins but too much whipsaw, you loose track of which way the markets really trying to go.

There's a lot of good info here at FF about how to approach the market in longer term trades and I've given up on all those "how to scalp" threads. I saw a few pages back in this thread, a suggestion to read "Zoopy's journal" He/she (?) is in one of Jacko's groups. If you haven't read it, I would recomend you do. Appearently not exactly how Jacko trades but the way he/she finds supp and resis is interesting. It's a long thread so start at the first page and see that there are changes in approach during the first few pages. Later he stops posting actual analysis of the chart itself and just discusses method, a chart thrown in occassionally.

All we can do is keep attacking or surrender so I'm trying to find the high ground on the battlefield ... before I get skewered. lol
  • #5,845
  • Jan 12, 2009 1:36am Jan 12, 2009 1:36am
Quoting trixtuf
Interceptor,
You seem to understand the method here, according to your responses to others, but I don't get the lesson learned comment. Did you get in a trade and loose?


InterceptorQuote:
Originally Posted by msc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2457123#post2457123)
what was your planned sell entry?
1.3820?

Yes, that's right.
I've got a fib(38) there, and it's also...
The 1st (correctly planned) trade, @ 1.3820, was unconnected to the second(losing) trade, which was an attempt to 'fade' the NFP announcement.
I successfully 'faded' my bank balance!
Hey-ho. Another week, another lesson learnt.
  • #5,846
  • Jan 12, 2009 2:45am Jan 12, 2009 2:45am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Hi, trixtuf. thanks again for the explanation. other than the 50% rule, I has been driven by fear to jump into a trade if I view the trend seems strong, or probably wait more if it's weak. but, in most ocassions, I usually pull the trigger too early. this is the part of battle on the pscho side which I have a long way to go. I will go there to see zoopy's journal.

Quoting trixtuf
Hi krue, I was trying to see if you had a Plan A

My referance to "plan A" is just from the begining of this thread, where Jacko explains his approach to trading.

He states that he decides the trend and then uses the fib 50%, supp/resis areas and round numbers to identify trade opportunities.

I understand the desire to get in (5 & 1 min) with the "slightest favorable move" but that idea hasn't worked out too well. Small wins but too much whipsaw, you loose track of which way the markets really trying to go.

There's a lot of good info...
  • #5,847
  • Jan 12, 2009 2:48am Jan 12, 2009 2:48am
InterceptorQuote:

""The 1st (correctly planned) trade, @ 1.3820, was unconnected to the second(losing) trade, which was an attempt to 'fade' the NFP announcement.
I successfully 'faded' my bank balance!""


Ha .. hope that was a demo account

I didn't see any post where you mentioned the fade but that is always risky.
When it works .. yeehaa .. but I couldn't figure why the dollar was getting stronger, even with the poor reports, so I stayed out.
  • #5,848
  • Jan 12, 2009 2:59am Jan 12, 2009 2:59am
Quoting krue
Interceptor, wish you don'd mind me hijacking your lesson, it's been always one of my concern in managing my trade plan, the question is, what if PLAN A never returns in the near term?
If Plan A was properly researched, backtested and demo'd, then any deviation from that plan MUST only be to an alternative, and hopefully complimentary, plan which has been equally well developed.
Anything else is a donation to your brokers next lunch tab.
  • #5,849
  • Jan 12, 2009 3:28am Jan 12, 2009 3:28am
Going up or down ?

Price is hovering around a 50% of the last move up but if it closes below this 1.3250 area, I don't see what would stop it all the way down to around 1.2600. The "long" term is still up though, look at monthly. Do we wait for a bottom (?) or trade down to it ?
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  • #5,850
  • Jan 12, 2009 5:06am Jan 12, 2009 5:06am
Quoting trixtuf
Going up or down ?

Price is hovering around a 50% of the last move up but if it closes below this 1.3250 area, I don't see what would stop it all the way down to around 1.2600. The "long" term is still up though, look at monthly. Do we wait for a bottom (?) or trade down to it ?
If there was a 'juicy' rise to the 3800 area, then I'd sell it back down.
Otherwise, wait for the value to arrive lower down from here before buying.
  • #5,851
  • Jan 12, 2009 7:46am Jan 12, 2009 7:46am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
trixtuf, I don't know if my view is worth any cents for the moment,but, if I were in the trade, I will hold it till profit target given the daily continuation pattern and the approximate equal distance of the legs both side of the formation, under the condition that I have been bearish on this pair recently.

Quoting trixtuf
Going up or down ?

Price is hovering around a 50% of the last move up but if it closes below this 1.3250 area, I don't see what would stop it all the way down to around 1.2600. The "long" term is still up though, look at monthly. Do we wait for a bottom (?) or trade down to it ?
  • #5,852
  • Jan 12, 2009 4:20pm Jan 12, 2009 4:20pm
Had to leave early last night but I'll show you what I was looking at ...

I showed the 4H chart but I'm not yet that patient (but working on it) ...

since time frames move in simular fashion I'm showing on the chart below what I'm waiting for (and it would be the same on any time frame) ...

since we are in a downtrend on the 4H EUR-USD (but a pullback in the major trend .. check a monthly chart) I am looking for a short entry ...

Price breaking (closing) below points A on the chosen TF would be my entry ..

However .. since price broke the resis at B, I will now consider the price may be headed up but will wait for a retrace before entering so as to (hopefully) reduce the chance of getting caught in a false break ... (another chart coming)
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  • #5,853
  • Jan 12, 2009 4:35pm Jan 12, 2009 4:35pm
I think I got lucky I didn't stay up last night ...

The price retraced but failed to break point C ... turning down again when it hit resistance ... if I had been on the ball ... there was a short possibe going down to E but I might have still been looking for a break up ... expectations still are my curse ... definately trying to learn to stay in the moment and trade what the price is doing, not what I expect it to do ...

at any rate, now we've got a solid range to work with ... I'll just be watching until it actually starts a trend outside this range ...
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  • #5,854
  • Jan 12, 2009 4:57pm Jan 12, 2009 4:57pm
I'm trying to implement the ideas Jacko has laid out with regard to reading the movement of price ... Studying to find those supp/resis areas, the round numbers are pretty easy as is the fib ... so

Just to cover my bases here ... My trade selection starts with the 4hr TF.
I think there is going to be enough movement on a 4hr swings (maybe call it a mini-trend) to provide me profit for the time I spend at the monitor .. at present, I babysit all my trades until closed or well into positive pip (free trade) teritory (hasen't happened often .. yet).

I analyse from Mth, Wkly, for major trend direction and Dly for supp and resis / accumulation areas. If there's a move on, I look for signals from 30 or 15 to trade the 4hr.

This is a framework I'm still processing in an attempt to prove to myself that I don't need to drill down to 5 and 1 min charts to scalp just a few pips at a time ... very tired of that ..

Anyway ... for what it's worth, that's where I'm at and any comments are welcome if you agree or disagree with what I post .. it's an education

Thanks for your indulgence
  • #5,855
  • Jan 12, 2009 5:26pm Jan 12, 2009 5:26pm
Ok, so I was going to put up the 4hr as a referance ... we are down but in a range ... so I will wait to see which way it goes
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  • #5,856
  • Jan 12, 2009 6:06pm Jan 12, 2009 6:06pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
H4 is still noisy, if you don't object, the daily is probably a little bit clearer, it seems not in a range market. if not in a trade now, better wait till breakout. but, I hesitate to take any action upon breakout, never feel comfortable to do it.

you call it expectation, but, some people may call it anticipatory analysis. the market is driven by expectation, this is how human being react to news, price actions, trend...... many and many. if no expectation, no anticipation, how to trade? I am probably blind, but,really don't understand.
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  • #5,857
  • Jan 12, 2009 7:20pm Jan 12, 2009 7:20pm
Since this is Jacko's thread and he only trades the Daily, you may want to think about posting shorter time frame trades elsewhere.
  • #5,858
  • Jan 12, 2009 10:25pm Jan 12, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting rudenstein
Hi,

Does anybody here have access to jacko's blog? How does one become a member?

Thanks!

Here it is

http://waynejacksonfx.blogspot.com/

I was his very first member. The best thing I have dun in my life. Am a fulltime trader and trading numbers so big that I cant beleve it myself sometimes. I love the man for wat he has dun for me and my life.
  • #5,859
  • Jan 12, 2009 10:52pm Jan 12, 2009 10:52pm
Yes, I agree. I have been in his second group for 8 months and I am becoming a consistent winner trader. Thanks to him and all members for their contribution. It totally worth it.
  • #5,860
  • Jan 12, 2009 11:12pm Jan 12, 2009 11:12pm
Newbie and Trade I hope both of you will periodically post updating us on your results.
Not numbers just a quick comment like those above.
Congratulations.
Very encouraging.
Thanks for any help you can provide

msc
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