Indicator free system

Im currently working on 2 or 3 projects..as I get an idea I add or remove from that system until we have the finished article.

Im working on an indicator free system based just on price action..Im looking at the 15 min time frame and will be run by an EA which will hopefully be able to be coded.

The reason I would like an ea for this as being indicator free..... a back test should be accurate.

Its all about patterns most market patterns are driven by traders Psychology ..

The herd effect..you run we all run lols ..any way the ingredients are in the bowl lets see what the cake turns out like..as normal all my stuff will be posted here

Paulus

This is counter trend not trend for indicator free trading it is easier to spot turning points in a trend rather than identifying a trend purely by price action..

I know higher highs higher lows etc but for how many bars before a trend is termed as ' in' and once in how many will it last ?

Sooooo a turning point is easier..we can then fix a target and a stop based around the entry.

The pattern is easy .. we have to identify the bottom or top at the end of big trends small trends 20 bar trends 3 bar trends..indicators lag to much for this really....... esp when trying to find the end or potential reversal point after say 5x5 min bars..

So the pattern has to be able to cope with the elastic size of the potential trend no matter the size or power.

Target

Once in we have to be realistic Im not after 50 pips on a 5min signal I expect seeral signal a day and so target based on price action would seem appropraite.

Im like a sparrow feeding would rather take several small pieces of bread rather than the wood pigeon approach ..esp on intra day

Stop

have to be price based also and give good risk reward

Will post some charts later

Paulus

Looking forward to it Paulus.

thx
todd

The pattern is similar to 123

We are trying to spot potential turning points

We use 3 candles

We ignore doji and disregard the setup if it occurs any where in the 3 candle pattern


1- The low candle before the high
2- The high candle
3- The Confirmation candle

We enter on the break of the low of candle 3 .. we set a lmt sell 1pip below the low of candle 3.

Our target is the average true range of the 3 candle set up,and we have an ATR indicator that will tell us that.

The ATR of the 3 candle set up on the chart was 75 pips and its calculated as

The difference between the high and low of candle 1 added to the difference between the high and low of candle 2 added to the difference between the high and low of candle 3 ... Divided by 3

On the example we hit the target at TP

I will add more to this thread examples etc and the ATR indicator..

Paulus

A few more

After the confirmation candle, how many bars will you wait before the break?
Is there a limit?
Thanks
SL?

once you get candle 3 you have to enter on the next bar if it doesnt trigger the whole set up is then void and we wait for the next.

here is a chart of EURUSD 4 hour 2 signals

Paulus

Paulus why don't you just use this method. It's similar to what your trying to do. I know it's not naked as what your trying to do. But the way the 3 ma's are being used is perfect to keeps us out of sideways markets. Seems to be quite accurate. 15min looks great and even the 5m is pretty interesting.

And instead of always trying to go countertrend. It will get you into continuations nicely.

Paulus

I Will look Todd

I know of Joe Ross and his 123 and trick entry its good stuff

Paulus

Gidday Paulus


Well worth a look.

It's not mine but it is of interest.

http://www.mistigrifx.com/tools/GPR.php


Cheers

Kiwi

Paulus what stop loss do you use once in the trade

Im look at trading...

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY

They seem to have the lowest spreads and are quite volatile

the last signals on each have produced the following

EURUSD - short from 1.3428 TP 133 pips
GBPUSD - +162
USDCHF - Long from 1130 TP
USDJPY +41 pips

Stop

Using the low of candle 3 for longs the high of candle 3 for shorts

paulus,

first of all....interesting stuff u keep discovering
and like lot of us im tired of indicators also
but now my question is what tf do you recommend?

thnx

A very intersting idea.
An EA would definitely help in identifying the setup.

Any thing from 5min up really the larger the time frame the larger the SL and TP..

On Daily may be good idea to break even at 50% of ATr as some tgts can be 400 - 500 pips..

here is screen shot of daily sigs there are some losers on this page but havnt shown them.... ..well its sunday...

P

ATR of 1 may be to small for 5 min time frame

P

ok signals today on my 4

EURUSD 5 sigs 4 wins
GBPUSD 5 sigs 3wins
USDCHF 3 sigs 3 wins
USDJPY 5 sigs 3 wins

A good day

Rules to implement.( perhaps)

Asian session is very none volatile so can prob be missed as most signal came in the markets later.

Only 4 signals came in the Asian session but counted for 3 losers

Min size ATR for signal to be valid..

ie if the 3 bar ATR of a 15min EURUSD signal is below 15 it may have to be left as we need a decent Risk reward for our stop

P

Hi Paulus,

i find your 123 system very interesting. at what time do you start to trade and when do you finish ?

Another admirably straightforward technique, Paulus, and some pretty effective trades Paulus! Thanks!

I've been trying to find some pattern (without spoiling it by adding indicators) to help filter out some of the inevitable unsuccessful trades. Sorry but I haven't found any yet.

In the course of looking, I read Todd's reference to the Joe Ross Camelback system, and agree it looks great on paper. But not so great (for me) when I came to test it out: the problem I found is how to identify a "local low" or a "local high" when they are actually forming, as opposed to seeing them in context on a later chart.

As they are forming, in an apparently rising trend a candle will often go 5 or 10 pips lower than its predecessors, and you think "Aha! Got it!" - only to find the next candle goes another 5/10 pips lower, and the one after that another 5/10 pips down.

Has anyone else actually tried the Camelback? And if so, how did you decide whether the candle that is forming now is so clearly going to go lower(/higher) than the one that will follow it 5/15 minutes later? If you can't do that, the whole Camelback idea is unworkable. But surely if we were able predict that, we wouldn't need anything else to make ourselves millionaires in no time?!

Not wishing to hijack Paulus's thread, but as Todd points out, Camelback looks similar in theory; so I hoped I might be able to learn something from it. The difference seems to be that Paulus's scheme works in practice as well as in theory!

I hope I've missed something (despite re-reading Camelback several times) and that, if so, someone can point it out to me, please.

Thanks - George