Principles of market movements

Example of importance of large positions- big volumes.
What actually are large tick volumes?- Big positions of traders on the floor, people "in system"- insiders, trading robots or someone else who knows where market will go wright now.Importance of such volumes can easily be seen- when market cant break the price with large position, it rebounds and go in other way.
Today on s&p on the low appeared the biggest position of the day 2966 lots (about 10 mln $ position).This is what pushes the market, not technical analysis, not waves, or whatever.

http://savepic.ru/433590.png

http://savepic.ru/430518.png

Alex I really appreciate your analysis, I have been trading for several years and this thread is definitely the most valuable thing on this website. thanks

Current EUA

Today market made new large max volume of contract and on news(unemployment) declined.After market couldnt break max volume of yesterday- and went under max volume of contract which is more then 5000 lots- it declined; no resistance.

Current situation: 2 max volumes of hour on one price.Base level for this hour- we will wait for rebound and trade ( trend is declining!!!).

http://savepic.ru/458178.png


http://savepic.ru/455106.png

EUA Friday 9/01/2009

Friday opened under max volumes of previous day(Thursday) which were on 1,3695/1,3698/1,3696.
All time market was uder previous day`s max volumes- it means we are in a sell-zone; but at 7:30(Chicago time) will be announced important news about unenployment.On that news I dont advise to trade.Market tried few times to break max volumes of previous day but it couldn`t.That confirms a sale on market.But on the prices 1,365/1,3648/1,3645 we see that market made new max volume of contract.From that volumes we always see strong market moves.So we have a corridor of prices in which I advise not to do anything. On the chart red is Thursday with its max volumes and white chart is Friday, green lines- max volumes of contract.

http://savepic.ru/453088.png

Max volumes of contract:

http://savepic.ru/458208.png

Max volumes of Thursday:

http://savepic.ru/442848.png


And about situation that I noticed in previous post:
We have 2 max volumes of hours on one price 1,3485.That is a good level to trade from.Trend is declining- so in the next hour we wait for market to rebound from that price, and than we will sell.That price is important.But what should we do if price drifts above or important level and than goes below again.Is it "rebound"?On the chart we see that first market drifted 1,3485 about 13 pips above- that`s too much, we shouldn`t trade in this case; second time market drifted 1,3485 for about 6 pips and went down- that is risky too, but risk is much lower and we may trade in this case.

http://savepic.ru/428512.png

This thread is the most interesting topic I found so far in this forum. Thanks

Thanks, nice to hear that.

GBP/BPA
I will post here trades and analysis of pound.
This week was indicative in respect of exact inputs from large volumes.
Volumes of last week:

http://savepic.ru/455167.png

Max volumes of all contract:

http://savepic.ru/456191.png

Like you see easy input from volume of last week, has given pure pass to contract levels:

http://savepic.ru/404980.png

After market has shown buy-position from max volume of Monday 1,45 longterm buy is confirmed ( only to max volumes of contract- this is an example of buy position below max volumes of contract as strong declining movement has already been from that volume and market is far from it, and also volume that may reverse the market was formed(volume of week)).

Situation on euro futures.
After Friday news makret has appeared under max volumes of contract and max volumes of current week:

http://savepic.ru/417276.png

http://savepic.ru/414204.png

Base levels for the next week are:

http://savepic.ru/441608.png

We will trade from levels of current week (see above), and from prices with max volume of contract. In a corridor of week to enter into the market it is not recommended.

Hey man...Thanks for the update. So we are starting the week in a short bias, regarding EUR. I suppose we'll wait to see a bounce off of one of last weeks highs. My fibs are in agreement for more shorts. We'll see what happens.

Scotty B

Alex,

Does volfix shows the volume for Swiss, Canadian and Aussie dollars ?

yes.

Of course we will see.Good trading Day!=)

GBP/BPA
Current situation:
Today market opened below max volume of Friday and went under max volume of contract 1,502.Now it is in a corridor on max volumes of contract: we will wait till it breaks this corridor.The best way- it goes under 1,49 comes back, rebounces and declines, like at 2:25-2:27 with 1,502 price.
Max volumes of contract:

http://savepic.ru/426244.png

http://savepic.ru/418052.png

Grey line- max volume of today.

Logic of actions today is simple.
On Friday powerful levels were generated:

http://savepic.ru/425220.png

Today we are under Friday, and from these levels will try to sell(as trend is declining):

http://savepic.ru/417031.png

Or, if the market breaks Friday levels and starts to gain from it, we will try to buy there (but low- lots postition as it against trend- risky).

Importance of intraday volumes.
I have already mansioned about importance of max volumes of hours that stand close to each other, or even on one price.Example:
On Friday on the bottom of the day market stayed in one price range during 2 hours(13:00-15:00), and max volumes of that hours are close to each other- 1,3395 and 1,34.These prices is a level for us to trade in next hour, as you see market gained from it in next hour.Such important levels are usually "worked off" in next few days.

http://savepic.ru/439568.png

On the chart you see these prices and how market traded today from them.You see that market tried to break them through many times but it couldn`t.It rebounced.Very good levels to put there limit orders with low loses and significant returns
The market always confirms importance of volumes in a kind of "rebounce".

http://savepic.ru/424208.png

Hi alex, great thread.
Just tryin to understand it a bit more.
So u are waiting for price to confirm the sentiment around a high volume area and then trading with that?
It sounds like u basically know where the big players are going is this correct?
Also where do u get these charts and currencys from?

Some interesting information of today`s pipsing on S&P.On this instrument I put a min volume 500 lots in tick cluster and wait for at least 3 positions stick together on one price, but it must be on lows or at hights.For example market strongly declined and on the lows you see big position- that`s someone reversing the market.Big positions of "Big traders" are seen very good by tick volumes:

http://savepic.ru/419091.png

http://savepic.ru/424211.png

http://savepic.ru/422163.png

http://savepic.ru/425235.png

http://savepic.ru/411923.png

http://savepic.ru/423187.png

Yes.With the time comes understanding what big players do with the market, because they are acting mostly in the same waysI post here futures on currencies- it`s a security instrument that follows spot market, and charts I take from a program I use.

Current situation for euro(EUR/USD) futures. I already showed levels of the last week, as well as it was supposed, the market is in a zone of sales, but have not allowed to enter from week levels.

We will consider possible market situations and the prices from which it is possible to trade:
The nearest levels to trade from for us are only volumes of current week, we will focus on them:

http://savepic.ru/425238.png

And also the bottom border we can advance, when we will look on cluster chart with previous day:

http://savepic.ru/458027.png

On the price 1, 33 the volume of 1151 lots is accumulated, that`s a lot. Possible variants of market movements:

http://savepic.ru/443691.png

At the first approaches to the bottom border of a corridor - 1, 33 it will be possible to try to short with SL at the opening price. Till market will not break 1, 338 - there won`t be any good opportunities to open long position, a trend is completely negative.