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THV system, final edition

  • #2,081
  • Jan 9, 2009 2:11pm Jan 9, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting cobraforex
I didn't have my best day today as well but could fill the book.

I'm only trading E/U, E/Y and A/U.

Going with the rules 100% you should be fine although there are always situations that get you stopped out but we need to cover them with a good MM.

May you post a trade to analyze what went wrong?

personalme, thanks for your vote
for today i ended up at breakeven. I could have taken the big upmove, but the worms started showing. so i said forget it. The e/j is what brought me back. The arrows is where i took the trade. Ignore the second arrow in the middle, because i was still in the first one. I am now using specific targets that work well with the particular pairs i'm trading with. The 15 minute is working out well for that pair so far
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  • #2,082
  • Jan 9, 2009 2:42pm Jan 9, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting cobraforex
My problem was that I was in a meeting when the bear move started and an entry after a 100+pip move I saw to risky.

You can't get all the pips.
You may not get them all but you still are the pipmeister!

Have a great weekend everyone!
  • #2,083
  • Jan 9, 2009 2:45pm Jan 9, 2009 2:45pm
See the 15 minute kept me out of the market. the whole day basically.
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  • #2,084
  • Jan 9, 2009 3:07pm Jan 9, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting sed34
See the 15 minute kept me out of the market. the whole day basically.
Yes, you are right when you respect the coral on that timeframe.

Like I said before, in TF's higher than 5M I would trade the hull instead of the coral.

That will be the task for the team in the next week, I trade only 1M and 5M and in those the coral secures the trades.
  • #2,085
  • Jan 9, 2009 3:13pm Jan 9, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting sed34
See the 15 minute kept me out of the market. the whole day basically.
But the circled area is not a valid setup? Or this was avoided due to the worms?

Also, if there is a valid signal, and there is worm is that a no go?

Thanks
Karun
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  • #2,086
  • Jan 9, 2009 3:33pm Jan 9, 2009 3:33pm
Quoting cobraforex
Yes, you are right when you respect the coral on that timeframe.

Like I said before, in TF's higher than 5M I would trade the hull instead of the coral.

That will be the task for the team in the next week, I trade only 1M and 5M and in those the coral secures the trades.
there are so many combinations. i see trade setups with the hull that went bad and others that went good. I'm trying to increase my success rate to 90%. That is why i'm testing other pairs and staring at charts. If a pair is going to go down then go down. don't change your mind and go up so quickly.
  • #2,087
  • Jan 9, 2009 3:39pm Jan 9, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting karun
But the circled area is not a valid setup? Or this was avoided due to the worms?

Also, if there is a valid signal, and there is worm is that a no go?

Thanks
Karun
First, the cloud isn't under the coral.

the worm signals that the pair is overbought or oversold and could reverse. In that particular trade it just happened to work, but it was a lot of news going on to cause that movement. and i don't trade news.
  • #2,088
  • Jan 9, 2009 3:54pm Jan 9, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting cobraforex
Good question.

Yes, but in TF's higher than 5M I would work with the THV hull replacement that you find in the optional folder in the first page.

I will update that in the manual as soon as possible.
Sorry, but what do u mean : " I would work with the THV hull replacement "

As I understand, I can use your system at TF 15M. But which problems? I have tested on the TF 15m...and I think, the results is very good.

Sorry If I dont understand something
  • #2,089
  • Jan 9, 2009 4:48pm Jan 9, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting fxairy
Sorry, but what do u mean : " I would work with the THV hull replacement "

As I understand, I can use your system at TF 15M. But which problems? I have tested on the TF 15m...and I think, the results is very good.

Sorry If I dont understand something
Nothing wrong with it, what I say is that if you follow strictly the rules, the trades in the red boxes wouldn’t be valued because the cloud is still on the other side of the Coral.

If the PA is closed to the coral and crosses the cloud, the hull and at the end the coral I would take the trade.

We didn't pay too much attention on higher TF's than 5M yet but in the future I will have one screen with 15 and 60M open to see if we need to improve rules for those TF's.
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  • #2,090
  • Jan 9, 2009 5:55pm Jan 9, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting sed34
First, the cloud isn't under the coral.

the worm signals that the pair is overbought or oversold and could reverse. In that particular trade it just happened to work, but it was a lot of news going on to cause that movement. and i don't trade news.
No offense, But I'am just trying to understand this. I see that the could is under coral(the thin line). I dont know what the thick line is, but that is coral for 15M TF, yeah this is not a valid signal.

Please correct me if I'am wrong.

Thanks
  • #2,091
  • Jan 9, 2009 8:38pm Jan 9, 2009 8:38pm
Quoting karun
No offense, But I'am just trying to understand this. I see that the could is under coral(the thin line). I dont know what the thick line is, but that is coral for 15M TF, yeah this is not a valid signal.

Please correct me if I'am wrong.

Thanks
Sorry but, in the three cases above (red rectangles) the Ichimoku deep violet cloud is ABOVE the Coral line (upper thin line - dark red and green). The other one is probably a Hull. And even there the cloud is above it inside those rectangles
  • #2,092
  • Jan 9, 2009 9:31pm Jan 9, 2009 9:31pm
Quoting doblece
Sorry but, in the three cases above (red rectangles) the Ichimoku deep violet cloud is ABOVE the Coral line (upper thin line - dark red and green). The other one is probably a Hull. And even there the cloud is above it inside those rectangles
I think probably we may have a mixup here on the chart reference.

You are referring to the chart posted by cobraforex, I'am referrring to this
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2083
and
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2083

Thanks
Karun
  • #2,093
  • Edited 11:59pm Jan 9, 2009 11:38pm | Edited 11:59pm
Quoting karun
I think probably we may have a mixup here on the chart reference.

You are referring to the chart posted by cobraforex, I'am referrring to this
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2083
and
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2083

Thanks
Karun
Oops sorry. I thought effectively that you were talking of Cobraforex's chart. (Both are the same link... is there another chart?)

The "thick" line is the old Hull.
Indeed, as per the cloud being above the coral line, the entry wouldn't be valid... and also, the 15 min chart of the pivot break at 15:45 (FxPro GMT+2) happens just 45 minutes after New York open, and 15 minutes after NEWS (NFP, a BIG no-no for opening ANY position).

Technically, if it wasn't news time and especially THAT news, maybe the fact that the candle broke the pivot line with force without even retesting it later (see on M1 chart) and didn't came back, having being rejected from psych level 1.3750 on the candle before the break (market open small spike) could give a green light for a short entry with a tight stop, because all the other conditions are met... but the fact that the cloud is still above means to me that the movement has been very volatile and with whipsaw (the cloud "hasn't had enough time to evolve and place itself where it should be"), price went way ahead and a too fast move brings about a similarly sharp reversal (typical BTW of NFP mornings...).

So, all in all, the elements that make us avoid dangerous times also might sometimes prevent us to make quite a few pips... but remember that staying in the sidelines is also part of the trading... and that there are thousands of opportunities all 24 hours 5 days a week, which this system seems to harvest quite well

There was an opportunity to enter later on, about an hour and a half later, when cloud went down the Coral which also gave a sell alert on M15, T3 and PA conditions kept signaling the short trend, entering just below 1.3550.
BUT: the Trix lines were pointing up and RSI signaling oversold conditions.
All in all, a risky situation, at least in M15. On M5 the Trix was quite choppy but the PA was more definite though in a quite of "choppy downside" (it kept crossing and re-crossing the cloud), giving then an opportunity to enter at 1.3490, down to 1.3430-1.3420.
On M1 there were a few possible small entries, but with oversold RSI worms and choppy Trix.
Each timeframe has its own panorama which can be quite different of the previous one or not.

I personally wouldn't trade on late Friday morning especially on a NFP day.

But also, in such a case, you can check the conditions in a smaller timeframe and do some cautious scalping.
  • #2,094
  • Jan 10, 2009 1:53am Jan 10, 2009 1:53am
Quoting doblece
Oops sorry. I thought effectively that you were talking of Cobraforex's chart. (Both are the same link... is there another chart?) ...............
Thanks for the detailed reply as always.

Sorry the second link should had been, http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2085

Quote
There was an opportunity to enter later on, about an hour and a half later, when cloud went down the Coral which also gave a sell alert on M15, T3 and PA conditions kept signaling the short trend, entering just below 1.3550.
BUT: the Trix lines were pointing up and RSI signaling oversold conditions.

I think this is the area I have marked in that chart in the above link, or may be even a little earlier.

This also raises another question, when you see a PA like this, and when trix lines are pointing up, worms do we take the trade or is it a strict no?

Also, if it was not a late friday or non NFP day, how this could have been handled.

Sorry for so many questions.
Thanks in advance.
Karun
  • #2,095
  • Jan 10, 2009 2:09am Jan 10, 2009 2:09am
Greetings


So, all in all, the elements that make us avoid dangerous times also might sometimes prevent us to make quite a few pips... but remember that staying in the sidelines is also part of the trading... and that there are thousands of opportunities all 24 hours 5 days a week, which this system seems to harvest quite well

Thanks
  • #2,096
  • Jan 10, 2009 2:24am Jan 10, 2009 2:24am
I meant to quote your response, Doblece..

Your team has exhausted many hours refining Cobra's system and I meant to quote your latest response....just didn't look like a quote in the last post.

Regards
  • #2,097
  • Jan 10, 2009 2:34am Jan 10, 2009 2:34am
Quoting karun
I think this is the area I have marked in that chart in the above link, or may be even a little earlier.

This also raises another question, when you see a PA like this, and when trix lines are pointing up, worms do we take the trade or is it a strict no?

Also, if it was not a late friday or non NFP day, how this could have been handled.

Sorry for so many questions.
Many questions bring about many potential lessons for both sides and expand to the rest of all who are sharing this method, so bring the questions on!

In fact the entry I mentioned is quite a bit later on.
As I said in the previous post, in my opinion technically it would have been a good entry if it hadn't been at that precise time of the day and with the NFP data just freshly issued. Even despite the cloud and worm thing. Especially because of the momentum with which it broke the central pivot line, barely tried to retest it and went down much further (and former candle strong rejection of the upper level).

The entry would have been below 1.3533 (which is another psych level, along with the xx66, usually even stronger than the other as far as I have seen in my backtestings). But, with a warning of the RSI oversold and Trix coming back up, maybe one would have to ponder how much is the risk, and go to lower TFs to check that the entry is indeed a valid (tradable) one.

Should this have been in a normal trading day out of news time or market open, I personally would have entered after the break and retest of the central pivot line, without waiting for the coral to change direction, but with a tight stop at the pivot level or even a little lower... because in fact, the trend was apparently up and about to finish what seemed to be a Flag pattern, in which I would maybe have expected a further leg up or second flagpole, but NFP changes here all the logic of the evolution of the pattern.

The NY open spike up was probably caused by many traders thinking the same (continuation of up trend) but if you go to higher timeframes you will see that this apparent up trend was barely a retracement in a stronger downtrend that started in december after price was rejected at around 1.47xx (H4). And on the contrary, if you watch Daily chart, you'll see another bullish Flag with probabilities of continuation upwards, as coral is green and price and cloud are above...

That's why it is very important to stick as much as possible to the TF you want to trade off, trying to match the best entries if trading longer timeframes, in shorter ones, or just entering and exiting in the main direction of the trend one or two TFs higher, as soon as the conditions are met for either action, and also match the expectation of the results with what the particular timeframe can really give (ATR 20 can give you an idea of what you could expect for a wave) and of course, if there is a continuation, stick with the wave the longer time possible, but acting fast against possible reversals and above all minimizing the risk of losses (that is, securing the trade as soon as it is in positive according to each TF, or trailing the stops, or both).
  • #2,098
  • Jan 10, 2009 2:38am Jan 10, 2009 2:38am
Quoting sundowner
I meant to quote your response, Doblece..

Your team has exhausted many hours refining Cobra's system and I meant to quote your latest response....just didn't look like a quote in the last post.

Regards
No worries, I believe in Open Source ... and each and every trader trading THV is also doing his/her part of the job, thus being part of the team as well.
Thanks for that.
  • #2,099
  • Jan 10, 2009 4:52am Jan 10, 2009 4:52am
Hi again ) plz describe how to work with this indicator, with this lines?
See my picture.

Thanks
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  • #2,100
  • Jan 10, 2009 8:25am Jan 10, 2009 8:25am
Quoting fxairy
Hi again ) plz describe how to work with this indicator, with this lines?
See my picture.

Thanks
Here I answered using your same chart
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