I trailed my entry last night and was hit for a a few in the bank. Not sure what is driving this pair up right now...
- #18,381
- Jan 8, 2009 5:56am Jan 8, 2009 5:56am
- | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
- #18,386
- Jan 8, 2009 10:15am Jan 8, 2009 10:15am
yes ,im in
I am read this thread for few months, and also play with this system. Sometimes with good results, sometimes with bad
- I still learn this system. I had short position on EUR/USD like few person and I was sure to prise go down to 200SMA but this not happen. Maybe Someone cant explaint me why ? There was some importent reason why prise can't go down?
In this moment I think we have beginig of new up trand - it is good thinking?
- #18,388
- Jan 8, 2009 4:53pm Jan 8, 2009 4:53pm
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: revisit | 1,896 Posts
Good Afternoon everyone,
1st off i'm just checking i'm on the right time frame as everyone else? I had a signal on MACD 45mins ago (time of writing) - i.e. 15:00 (UK time)
Anyways back to the trade - was unsure at 1st whether to take this long, however if you have a look at the charts below you can see that a strong bullish engulfing candle has just formed with a tweezers bottom which is a very strong signal that this is going to move higher.
I used the 5min to refine my entry as I am only trading 1lot therefore cannot lower my risk with a...
Hi Smith,
I was offline last night, but if I was there, I would reply yes to you here. Below is my h1 entry method explaination.
365EMA became support area for the price in previous two days, so I also expected LONG signal, but very cautios.
In MACD window, the First EMA(green line) formed double bottom, then it crossed Second EMA(red line), which I supposed to take LONG entry signal.
The candlestick pattern also BULLISH ENGULFING, and it went above the trend line. Since the 8 & 21 EMA @ h4 chart went horizontal and have a close range yesterday, this trade was somehow very tricky for me if I was there too.
Anyway, not bad if I took the LONG entry signal as shown in the h1 chart below. Just to take a couple of pips.
Have a look and make your own thought.
- #18,389
- Edited 10:01pm Jan 8, 2009 9:58pm | Edited 10:01pm
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: revisit | 1,896 Posts
Hello guys,
A new trend line "x" is formed and the price is now between trend line x,y, & z. This tell us the price is into another consolidation period, especially if we look at the 8 & 21 EMA direction right now.
Somehow, we also find a higher low (TC pattern) in MACD window @ point "W". So, every EURusd trader already aware of where are the support and resistance areas during this period.
I hope we may find a breakout point soon. Will gear up myself in position for the next big swing ahead.
Have a great weekend guys.
A new trend line "x" is formed and the price is now between trend line x,y, & z. This tell us the price is into another consolidation period, especially if we look at the 8 & 21 EMA direction right now.
Somehow, we also find a higher low (TC pattern) in MACD window @ point "W". So, every EURusd trader already aware of where are the support and resistance areas during this period.
I hope we may find a breakout point soon. Will gear up myself in position for the next big swing ahead.
Have a great weekend guys.
- #18,391
- Edited 6:12am Jan 9, 2009 3:06am | Edited 6:12am
Hi guys,
there is TC formation starting on 4hr eurusd. According previous ADP numbers there is FA support that usd will be weaker in few hours. My chief economist see potential 1.40 level very possible. Of course there could be some noisy movements before the news, but in these levels it seems to me a good point to build the position.
Long eur/[email protected], SL bellow H4 low 1,3645, TPs 1.3820 R1, 1.3940 R2/89SMA.
Any comments?
12:26 - I added some more to my position @ 1.3680 - pivot has been touched around 1.3675
12:43 - Wild moves, seems big players are kicking off longs. Still same view. Maybe good RRR levels for late comers, but TC signal is not valid yet. It's just my speculation trade using 4hr,1hr and 5min + FA.
12:57 - As I've expected, there was big spoof to 3760 lvl, just 5min its back above 1.3700 area and TC is almost done and valid.
13:00 - enter lvl averaged from 1.3710 to 1.3700
14:46 - closed a loss of -50 pips, strange market, all revisions bad
15:10 - possible explanation is that market was expecting much worst numbers, although its still very bad number (and of course down revisions too)
But its Friday, so I am happy before free weekend
there is TC formation starting on 4hr eurusd. According previous ADP numbers there is FA support that usd will be weaker in few hours. My chief economist see potential 1.40 level very possible. Of course there could be some noisy movements before the news, but in these levels it seems to me a good point to build the position.
Long eur/[email protected], SL bellow H4 low 1,3645, TPs 1.3820 R1, 1.3940 R2/89SMA.
Any comments?
12:26 - I added some more to my position @ 1.3680 - pivot has been touched around 1.3675
12:43 - Wild moves, seems big players are kicking off longs. Still same view. Maybe good RRR levels for late comers, but TC signal is not valid yet. It's just my speculation trade using 4hr,1hr and 5min + FA.
12:57 - As I've expected, there was big spoof to 3760 lvl, just 5min its back above 1.3700 area and TC is almost done and valid.
13:00 - enter lvl averaged from 1.3710 to 1.3700
14:46 - closed a loss of -50 pips, strange market, all revisions bad
15:10 - possible explanation is that market was expecting much worst numbers, although its still very bad number (and of course down revisions too)
But its Friday, so I am happy before free weekend
Hi guys,
there is TC formation starting on 4hr eurusd. According previous ADP numbers there is FA support that usd will be weaker in few hours. My chief economist see potential 1.40 level very possible. Of course there could be some noisy movements before the news, but in these levels it seems to me a good point to build the position.
Long eur/[email protected], SL bellow H4 low 1,3645, TPs 1.3820 R1, 1.3940 R2/89SMA.
Any comments?
12:26 - I added some more to my position @ 1,3680 - pivot has been touched around 1,3675
12:43 - Wild moves, seems big...
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Our normal procedure for this type of situation is to ban the seller and 'bin' the seller's thread. However, Phillip is one of the most senior members at FF and has made massive contributions to the community so we are treating his situation differently with a new procedure called 'lounging'. We hope this new procedure will be the solution to all future situations like Phillip's but we are still in the testing mode obviously.
'Lounging' is a way for senior members to make a friendly exit from the forum when they decide to go into the business of servicing traders. Once lounged the seller is allowed to post only in the Members Lounge but not in any other forum. The seller's thread will not be sent to the Recycle Bin, but the thread's participants will not be permitted to talk about the seller or the seller's products/services. Any thread that acts as a promotion agent must be sent to the Recycle Bin so it's important that this thread continues to be focused on trading and not on Phillip or his services.
Phillip has started a thread in the Members Lounge: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=144185. If you want to show your appreciation to Phillip or talk about his products/services you are free to do so in that thread.
I must emphasize that no discussion about Phillip or his website should be mentioned in this thread - that can only be discussed in his Member's Lounge thread. We don’t want to send this thread to the Recycle Bin, and the only way we can do that is if this thread doesn't act as a promotion agent for Phillip's products/services.
Some of you may be feeling that we are going overboard trying to protect Rule #3. However, the Factory team feels that Rule #3 is the key to the success of the forum - we believe traders want to collaborate in an environment that is commercial free and we work extremely hard to protect the environment. We don't view Phillip as a threat to the forum, but we must enforce the rules with him because other sellers will point to Phillip as a sign of hypocrisy or injustice. In fact the way we found out that Phillip began selling is from others crying foul here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post2429353. Hopefully everyone will understand why we had to take this action and the new lounging procedure will work as planned.
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- #18,395
- Jan 11, 2009 8:14am Jan 11, 2009 8:14am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: revisit | 1,896 Posts
kick off 2009 [/quote]
Hi Smith,
...and hello to the others in this thread as well.
I just want to be straight with you about my findings here.
h4 Chart
(1) Price went below 89SMA + 8EMA below 21EMA (strong downtrend direction);
(2) Price has broken the trend line #2 and 365EMA, and currently supported @ trend line #1 and 200SMA after the weekend;
(3) Candlestick pattern (marked as "z" in the chart) is called 3 OUTSIDE DOWN (HIGHLY RELIABLE BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERN) - the price has high probablity to continue it path to trend line #3; &
(4) MACD already below ZERO level and much likely showing a TC pattern.
PLUS...........
h1 Chart
My h1 MACD method. This will be my entry strategy :-
1) See mark "x" in MACD window : Firstly,I am expecting the Fast EMA (green line) will cross above the Slow EMA (red line). Then secondly, the green line will be going back down side to cross below the red line (ZIG ZAG movement);
-OR -
(2)The green line will only touch/almost touch the red line before proceeding it way downside (U-turn). I WILL ONLY MAKE MY SHORT ENTRY BASED ON CRITERIA (1) or (2). These are my filters (and it does give perfect entry at least to me); &
(3) Candlestick pattern : See mark "y" in the chart? Dragonfly doji. You should know this also a strong bearish pattern. Additional confirmation.
We can see a clear view on how the price will keep testing the 200SMA @ h1 chart later on. As for me, this is a very strong BEARISH market. SHORT entry is my original plan here.
If my h1 method satisfy the h4 rules, I will RIDE in this trade
. Please take note that these analyses is totaly based on my own opinion only, and it is 100% TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (no fundamental analysis considered here).
So how, friends? Good to go?
[/quote]Hi Smith,
...and hello to the others in this thread as well.
I just want to be straight with you about my findings here.
h4 Chart
(1) Price went below 89SMA + 8EMA below 21EMA (strong downtrend direction);
(2) Price has broken the trend line #2 and 365EMA, and currently supported @ trend line #1 and 200SMA after the weekend;
(3) Candlestick pattern (marked as "z" in the chart) is called 3 OUTSIDE DOWN (HIGHLY RELIABLE BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERN) - the price has high probablity to continue it path to trend line #3; &
(4) MACD already below ZERO level and much likely showing a TC pattern.
PLUS...........
h1 Chart
My h1 MACD method. This will be my entry strategy :-
1) See mark "x" in MACD window : Firstly,I am expecting the Fast EMA (green line) will cross above the Slow EMA (red line). Then secondly, the green line will be going back down side to cross below the red line (ZIG ZAG movement);
-OR -
(2)The green line will only touch/almost touch the red line before proceeding it way downside (U-turn). I WILL ONLY MAKE MY SHORT ENTRY BASED ON CRITERIA (1) or (2). These are my filters (and it does give perfect entry at least to me); &
(3) Candlestick pattern : See mark "y" in the chart? Dragonfly doji. You should know this also a strong bearish pattern. Additional confirmation.
We can see a clear view on how the price will keep testing the 200SMA @ h1 chart later on. As for me, this is a very strong BEARISH market. SHORT entry is my original plan here.
If my h1 method satisfy the h4 rules, I will RIDE in this trade
. Please take note that these analyses is totaly based on my own opinion only, and it is 100% TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (no fundamental analysis considered here). So how, friends? Good to go?
- #18,397
- Jan 11, 2009 10:32am Jan 11, 2009 10:32am
kick off 2009
...and hello to the others in this thread as well.
I just want to be straight with you about my findings here.
h4 Chart
(1) Price went below 89SMA + 8EMA below 21EMA (strong downtrend direction);
(2) Price has broken the trend line #2 and 365EMA, and currently supported @ trend line #1 and 200SMA after the weekend;
(3) Candlestick pattern (marked as "z" in the chart) is called 3 OUTSIDE DOWN (HIGHLY RELIABLE BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERN) - the price has high probablity to continue it path to trend line #3; &
(4) MACD already below ZERO level and much likely showing a TC pattern.
PLUS...........
h1 Chart
My h1 MACD method. This will be my entry strategy :-
1) See mark "x" in MACD window : Firstly,I am expecting the Fast EMA (green line) will cross above the Slow EMA (red line). Then secondly, the green line will be going back down side to cross below the red line (ZIG ZAG movement);
-OR -
(2)The green line will only touch/almost touch the red line before proceeding it way downside (U-turn). I WILL ONLY MAKE MY SHORT ENTRY BASED ON CRITERIA (1) or (2). These are my filters (and it does give perfect entry at least to me); &
(3) Candlestick pattern : See mark "y" in the chart? Dragonfly doji. You should know this also a strong bearish pattern. Additional confirmation.
We can see a clear view on how the price will keep testing the 200SMA @ h1 chart later on. As for me, this is a very strong BEARISH market. SHORT entry is my original plan here.
If my h1 method satisfy the h4 rules, I will RIDE in this trade
. Please take note that these analyses is totaly based on my own opinion only, and it is 100% TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (no fundamental analysis considered here). So how, friends? Good to go?[/quote]
Hi there...
Just out of curiousity... How do you plot the indicator at the bottom of your chart? And what is it called then ?
It looks very interesting... Care to share as well ?
- #18,398
- Jan 11, 2009 1:47pm Jan 11, 2009 1:47pm
- | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
h4 Chart[/u]
(1) Price went below 89SMA + 8EMA below 21EMA (strong downtrend direction);
(2) Price has broken the trend line #2 and 365EMA, and currently supported @ trend line #1 and 200SMA after the weekend;
(3) Candlestick pattern (marked as "z" in the chart) is called 3 OUTSIDE DOWN (HIGHLY RELIABLE BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERN) - the price has high probablity to continue it path to trend line #3; &
(4) MACD already below ZERO level and much likely showing a TC pattern.
PLUS...........
h1 Chart
My h1 MACD method. This will be my entry strategy :-
1) See mark "x" in MACD window : Firstly,I am expecting the Fast EMA (green line) will cross above the Slow EMA (red line). Then secondly, the green line will be going back down side to cross below the red line (ZIG ZAG movement);
-OR -
(2)The green line will only touch/almost touch the red line before proceeding it way downside (U-turn). I WILL ONLY MAKE MY SHORT ENTRY BASED ON CRITERIA (1) or (2). These are my filters (and it does give perfect entry at least to me); &
(3) Candlestick pattern : See mark "y" in the chart? Dragonfly doji. You should know this also a strong bearish pattern. Additional confirmation.
We can see a clear view on how the price will keep testing the 200SMA @ h1 chart later on. As for me, this is a very strong BEARISH market. SHORT entry is my original plan here.
If my h1 method satisfy the h4 rules, I will RIDE in this trade
So how, friends? Good to go?
The bears have definitely taken control, if you follow Elliot wave theory this down move is the start of the 3rd wave. Before going short we should wait for the retrace & confirmation. The daily chart shows a large bearish engulfing candle & a TC signal off both the 8 & 21EMA's. I plan to enter a short position on a retrace on the 4H and wait for market rhythm to develop